BofA warns cruise demand eroding

[iancal]

We certainly do not have a problem with testing.  In fact, we welcome it.

 

cannot imagine why either of us, if we tested positive, would want to pass the virus on to someone else.

Edited June 13, 2022 by iancal

[silversneakers]

Carnival stock way down. Cruise lines are struggling with costs, staffing is also a big issue.  Maybe we will see survival of the fitness as we have seen with the airlines merging in the past.  Travel is challenging and expensive right now and people are rethinking their options in this tanking economy. Hopefully November will see a turn or tides for our economy.

[Guest ldtr]

19 minutes ago, iancal said:

We certainly do not have a problem with testing.  In fact, we welcome it.

 

cannot imagine why either of us, if we tested positive, would want to pass the virus on to someone else.

Pretty much the same way.  Even if testing is not required I test at home prior to getting on either a domestic or international flight.  If positive (never has been so far) I would just stay home.

 

Since we are getting antigen tests free might as well check yourself before potentially infecting others.

[Guest ldtr]

On 6/11/2022 at 9:43 AM, mightycruisequeen said:

You don't run a successful hospitality industry by treating your customers like plague carriers until proven otherwise~ not for long, anyway.  Just my opinion, but there it is.

Do not run a successful company by letting infection spread widely on board either.  Unfortunately cruise ships, with the close spaces, the number of passengers and crew, and the movement pretty constantly mixing everybody with everybody else makes it the ideal ground for spread with an airborne virus.

 

The cruise line can deal with some cases on board, what they cannot survive is for there to be a number of serious cases on board.

[iancal]

A previous poster was correct.

 

CCL stock is down to 9.84 at the moment.

 

This is a clear message.

[Mary229]

48 minutes ago, iancal said:

A previous poster was correct.

 

CCL stock is down to 9.84 at the moment.

 

This is a clear message.

What would that message be?   

[GlennG]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

What would that message be?   

Don't buy Carnival stock.

[rkacruiser]

20 minutes ago, GlennG said:

Don't buy Carnival stock.

 

Or, maybe one should if one is a contrarian.  

 

The market is as irrational as these years since March, 2020 have been in so many facets of life.  

[Mary229]

4 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Or, maybe one should if one is a contrarian.  

 

The market is as irrational as these years since March, 2020 have been in so many facets of life.  

😅you thought the market was rational before 2020?  It is never rational if it was we wouldn’t have tulips, beanie babies and crypto.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Mary229

[Mr. Boston]

50 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

😅you thought the market was rational before 2020?  It is never rational if it was we wouldn’t have tulips, beanie babies and crypto.

And don’t even start on those frightful cabbage patch dolls!

[cruisemom42]

On 6/13/2022 at 4:42 PM, silversneakers said:

Hopefully November will see a turn or tides for our economy.

 

Keep your politics off the boards please.

[iancal]

10 hours ago, Mary229 said:

What would that message be?   

It is a sign that the financial market, the industry analysts are predicting less than stellar results over the next few quarters.

 

It is not difficult to understand why.  Questionable passenger loads, high interest payments, diluted balance sheet,  high cost of air and hotels, and poor PR from early covid cruise line missteps.

 

Not to mention and the reluctance of some previous cruisers, including us, to book a cruise this year.  
 

Not everyone sees the industry through rose coloured glasses.

Edited June 16, 2022 by iancal

[Mary229]

1 hour ago, iancal said:

It is a sign that the financial market, the industry analysts are predicting less than stellar results over the next few quarters.

 

It is not difficult to understand why.  Questionable passenger loads, high interest payments, diluted balance sheet,  high cost of air and hotels, and poor PR from early covid cruise line missteps.

 

Not to mention and the reluctance of some previous cruisers, including us, to book a cruise this year.  
 

Not everyone sees the industry through rose coloured glasses.

I can agree with that message - less than stellar results.  Some are predicting the collapse of the industry and the bankruptcy of Carnival - I don’t agree with that.  There is more shakeout to come but I think that will occur, as it has been, on the margins of the industry .  The cruise line industry like the restaurant industry was bloated prior to the pandemic.  The hotel industry, on the other hand, was at the end of the cycle and was in need of new capacity. The resort industry was in its infancy and may enjoy an unexpected boom due to the current sentiment 

[Mary229]

As a matter of fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see an expansion of land and resort options offered by cruise lines.  Whether that would turn out well I can’t say.  I planned the Yukon HAL tour as an extension of other western  Canadian travel we had planned.  I could hardly find in-depth reviews of the tour. Now there is a striking proliferation of the reviews appearing. My research was web wide not just cruise critic 

[Mary229]

11 hours ago, GlennG said:

Don't buy Carnival stock.

When to buy is dependent on the investor.  The stock is not facing a trading crisis, for every seller, so far, there is a buyer 

[silversneakers]

10 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Keep your politics off the boards please.

Huh??  The economy is the operative word!

[KidCruze]

I've been willing to cruise during the entire covid pandemic, but I'm just not going to with burdensome protocols in place. I don't mind vaccine requirements and pre-cruise testing. I view those as legitimate requirements that do not hinder the onboard experience. I do not want to cruise with a mask on. That causes me stress and reduces my fun. I go on vacation to relax and have fun. I am finally about to cruise in Alaska, after a 2.5 year wait, and then this past Sunday, HAL changed their mask rules back to "required indoors" for Alaskan cruises. That's a bummer. If it was just my wife and I, I would take a refund, but we are traveling with a her family, so its a little more complicated. I was prepared to spend a lot of money on board (relative, a lot of money to us, probably not to others🤣). We haven't cruised in a long time and I'm ready cut loose. We had planned to book a lot of spa appointments. 

I think there are a lot of people like me, not overly concerned with catching covid, they would rather just do something else with less hassle. Maybe I'll be grumpy on the ship Sunday, or maybe I'll be on a beach in Florida. If I'm on the ship with a mask, I'm certainly not spending money in the spa. 

I hope the cruise lines right the ship economically, because we love cruising, and I hope they are around for a long time. The ship I am booked on was only at 60% capacity before making the mask change and before people test prior to embarking, so that number will likely go down. I think cruise lines are going to have to remove all covid restrictions in order to get people back and start making money. They may have waited too long already. With the economy tightening up, and people not already having a cruise booked, I expect the money they would've normally allocated to a cruise will get spent on other stuff rather than new cruise bookings. 

[Guest ldtr]

8 hours ago, Mary229 said:

I can agree with that message - less than stellar results.  Some are predicting the collapse of the industry and the bankruptcy of Carnival - I don’t agree with that.  There is more shakeout to come but I think that will occur, as it has been, on the margins of the industry .  The cruise line industry like the restaurant industry was bloated prior to the pandemic.  The hotel industry, on the other hand, was at the end of the cycle and was in need of new capacity. The resort industry was in its infancy and may enjoy an unexpected boom due to the current sentiment 

While not projecting a major cruise line BK, I would not be surprised if CCL, or RCL, or NCLH were to do an airline style bankruptcy where they wipe out the shareholders and issue new equity to the debt holders and retire the existing debt.  That would clean up their balance sheet and would enable themselves to make changes to right size for the state of the industry.  Unless they change the trend and get profitable fairly  soon, they are at risk of becoming zombie companies with debt load preventing them making necessary changes and limiting their operational options.

 

Note in that type of BK the customers are kept whole, except for any that happen to be shareholders.

Edited June 16, 2022 by ldtr

[Mary229]

8 minutes ago, ldtr said:

While not projecting a major cruise line BK, I would not be surprised if CCL, or RCL, or NCLH were to do an airline style bankruptcy where they wipe out the shareholders and issue new equity to the debt holders and retire the existing debt.  That would clean up their balance sheet and would enable themselves to make changes to right size for the state of the industry.  Unless they change the trend and get profitable fairly  soon, they are at risk of becoming zombie companies with debt load preventing them making necessary changes and limiting their operational options.

 

Note in that type of BK the customers are kept whole, except for any that happen to be shareholders.

I understand the concept but I don’t think CCL is there yet.  There is a lot of surplus in the industry outside of the big 3.  That is where I would look for bankruptcy.  Disregarding the emergency debt CCL’s actions during the pandemic do not speak to a company preparing for a potential bankruptcy. They jettisoned their outdated, fuel guzzling older ships and upgraded their fleet .  They are now repositioning their fleet as a unified whole instead of a collection of unintegrated acquisitions. That is where I see the greatest 

possible upset to their customer base, the loss of the smaller brand’s identity as it is integrated into the whole. 

[riverrat]

On 6/11/2022 at 9:43 AM, mightycruisequeen said:

You don't run a successful hospitality industry by treating your customers like plague carriers until proven otherwise~ not for long, anyway.  Just my opinion, but there it is.

 

My husband and I feel the same. 8 days in ship Quarantine will do that to you. I look at the website, surf the wonderful cruises but, it was VERY stressful to be trapped in a room for week. Stomach turns just thinking of it. I will wait until testing stops. Carnival knows exactly how sick the 'vaccinated guests quarantined on board' have been. They certainly have the data. 

 

I didn't volunteer to test. I got 'retested' because my intransit group had too high a percentage of positives, so they retested us all. 

[HappyInVan]

9 hours ago, Mary229 said:

When to buy is dependent on the investor.  The stock is not facing a trading crisis, for every seller, so far, there is a buyer 

 

The issue is whether the price is $30 or $15 or $5?

[BermudaBound2014]

10 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Some are predicting the collapse of the industry and the bankruptcy of Carnival - I don’t agree with that.  There is more shakeout to come but I think that will occur, as it has been, on the margins of the industry .  The cruise line industry like the restaurant industry was bloated prior to the pandemic.  The hotel industry, on the other hand, was at the end of the cycle and was in need of new capacity. The resort industry was in its infancy and may enjoy an unexpected boom due to the current sentiment 

 

That's a very interesting theory :). I don't predict the collapse of the entire industry. There will always be cruise ships. I do predict an overwhelming restructuring with CCL coming out much smaller and leaner. They are big enough to piece out entire cruise lines to pay interest rates. 

[Mary229]

53 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

The issue is whether the price is $30 or $15 or $5?

That is up to the investor. I bought mine many moons ago then swapped it out for low cost shares.  100 shares to get my OBC, if I wasn’t an active cruiser this stock wouldn’t t even be on my radar.  
 

as to the swap out I knew I needed a loss to offset some gains so I sold CCL then came back in after the wash period and bought some cheap ones 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Mary229

[Mary229]

If you are an investor, not a shareholder seeking a benefit, and you have faith in a company and have done your research getting it at the lowest price possible should not be the ultimate consideration in purchasing.  I set targets and if a stock reaches my target it gets bought. 

[rkacruiser]

4 hours ago, ldtr said:

I would not be surprised if CCL, or RCL, or NCLH were to do an airline style bankruptcy where they wipe out the shareholders

 

Are you aware of the number of shares that the Arison family and the various entities tied to them hold?  Your scenario is most unlikely in my opinion.