Carnival Cruise Line’s Fleet Expanding More Than Rivals in 2023

[BlerkOne]

https://www.cruisehive.com/carnival-cruise-lines-fleet-expanding-more-than-rivals-in-2023/96461

[Guest BasicSailor]

So many ships, SO MANY SHIPS  with nowhere to go,

[mz-s]

If you subtract the berths that Carnival jettisoned in response to the COVID shutdown, how many berths have they gained? Still a significant figure as Mardi Gras alone can accommodate nearly as many guests as Ecstasy, Sensation, and Fascination. And that still leaves Inspiration and Imagination's berths as well.

[BoozinCroozin]

This has to stop. From a shareholder perspective, they need to stop spending money, pay down debt, and get the stock price back to where it needs to be. I am not talking $50, but they need to get rid of $1B in debt every quarter plus interest. This comes to about $1.15B each quarter to cover principal and interest. This is no small feat, but necessary. Everywhere they can cut cost is fair game. 

[mz-s]

2 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

This has to stop. From a shareholder perspective, they need to stop spending money, pay down debt, and get the stock price back to where it needs to be. I am not talking $50, but they need to get rid of $1B in debt every quarter plus interest. This comes to about $1.15B each quarter to cover principal and interest. This is no small feat, but necessary. Everywhere they can cut cost is fair game. 

 

They have to offer a competitive product or they'll be in a death spiral. They can't just keep cutting and cutting unless they want to truly be the Frontier Airlines of the industry.

[BoozinCroozin]

7 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

They have to offer a competitive product or they'll be in a death spiral. They can't just keep cutting and cutting unless they want to truly be the Frontier Airlines of the industry.

$35B in debt at 5% is no joke. That is $150M in interest every quarter. They have a massive fleet. They need to keep the ships filled, limit exec pay, and start throwing all profit to the debt. If done right over 5-years they can get rid of a ton of the debt, the execs get insane numbers of shares as compensation, and they get the growth in share price. Otherwise, we are looking at a bankruptcy to correct the debt.

[mz-s]

23 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

$35B in debt at 5% is no joke. That is $150M in interest every quarter. They have a massive fleet. They need to keep the ships filled, limit exec pay, and start throwing all profit to the debt. If done right over 5-years they can get rid of a ton of the debt, the execs get insane numbers of shares as compensation, and they get the growth in share price. Otherwise, we are looking at a bankruptcy to correct the debt.

 

I mentioned this in another thread some time ago, but if you look at Carnival's fleet and RCCL's fleet - which looks more modern? In 2006, Carnival debuted the Liberty - a very nice ship, but it looks ancient compared to RCCL's 2006 entry the Oasis of the Seas. Nothing CCL can do will make the Liberty have anywhere near the amenities of the Oasis. Carnival's debt load means they do not have the resources to turn over their entire fleet, so they're doing the next best thing - taking over ships from other lines they own.

 

The only way the Liberty can compete with the Oasis is on price. But the Venezia or Celebration have plenty of amenities to keep most cruisers happy, so Carnival can compete less on price and more on amenities with these better ships. That allows them to pay down debt.

[Saint Greg]

18 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

I mentioned this in another thread some time ago, but if you look at Carnival's fleet and RCCL's fleet - which looks more modern? In 2006, Carnival debuted the Liberty - a very nice ship, but it looks ancient compared to RCCL's 2006 entry the Oasis of the Seas. Nothing CCL can do will make the Liberty have anywhere near the amenities of the Oasis. Carnival's debt load means they do not have the resources to turn over their entire fleet, so they're doing the next best thing - taking over ships from other lines they own.

 

The only way the Liberty can compete with the Oasis is on price. But the Venezia or Celebration have plenty of amenities to keep most cruisers happy, so Carnival can compete less on price and more on amenities with these better ships. That allows them to pay down debt.

You kind of fudged the numbers on both ends. 2005 for Liberty and 2009 for Oasis. If anything you should be comparing Oasis to the Dream class.  

[mz-s]

7 minutes ago, Saint Greg said:

You kind of fudged the numbers on both ends. 2005 for Liberty and 2009 for Oasis. If anything you should be comparing Oasis to the Dream class.  

 

You are correct thank you. Oasis was ordered in 2006, not built in 2006. I did get my numbers wrong.

 

Oasis vs Dream is a better comparison and more fair to Carnival for sure.

[Joebucks]

23 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

They need to keep the ships filled, limit exec pay, and start throwing all profit to the debt.

 

Limiting exec pay is a cool thing to say on the internet to show how much you hate the man. CEOs and other executives don't deserve millions. However, we never mention musicians, athletes, and other celebrities doing the same.

 

The truth is, limiting executive pay could be the most financially disastrous move to the company. Imagine trying to retract and retain the best talent by telling them they aren't going to be paid. They go elsewhere. No large company is having financial problems because executives are "paid too much" regardless of hip, woke, opinions. However, many companies are in poor financial situations because of poor leadership.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

On 3/14/2023 at 8:09 PM, BlerkOne said:

https://www.cruisehive.com/carnival-cruise-lines-fleet-expanding-more-than-rivals-in-2023/96461

 

I see a series of new builds for some other lines, but Carnival is really in a status quo shuffle game (as they should be with their debt). Royal and NCL are just churning them out. Of course, several years ago I recall NCL took an option and cancelled 1 (or more?) ships due to economic pressures. Who knows if history could repeat itself or not...

 

Royal Caribbean:

 

 

-----------------------------------

 

NCL:

 

 

Tom

[Lee Cruiser]

2 hours ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

I see a series of new builds for some other lines, but Carnival is really in a status quo shuffle game (as they should be with their debt).

Exactly.  Both of these ships for Carnival were on order before 2020.  Venezia is just being transferred from the original cruise line.  After these two and in the coming years, Carnival will be well behind the others in terms of new ships. New ships continue to create excitement. RC charges a huge price for it's new ships and apparently it can, as they book up fast.

[Guest BasicSailor]

These huge ships can only port/ fit in so many places. So they announce a missed port because for some add ball reason. I feel it will be overkill on their part. Any line for that matter. Recoup what you have and see how they produce before you head off to no man's land.

[Saint Greg]

19 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Exactly.  Both of these ships for Carnival were on order before 2020.  Venezia is just being transferred from the original cruise line.  After these two and in the coming years, Carnival will be well behind the others in terms of new ships. New ships continue to create excitement. RC charges a huge price for it's new ships and apparently it can, as they book up fast.

 

I don't think Carnival needs to build new ones right now. They can continue to modernize the fleet by transferring more ships from Costa if they want to. There's another Spirit Class ship, a Dream class ship, and two Excellence class ships all built within the last 10 years they can transfer over. 

[Guest BasicSailor]

repeated

Edited March 16, 2023 by BasicSailor

[mz-s]

17 minutes ago, BasicSailor said:

So many HUGE ships with only a few places to port. Ever wonder why there is a missed port for some odd ball reason. Overkill , 

 

By and large those few places are the only places they want. Exotic ports of call for a Carnival ship like the Windwards, a thing of the past. The biggest problem (not necessarily for Carnival because they can't afford any more big ships) is the new megaships can't tender, so that really limits the future for places like HMC and Grand Cayman (and of course many other places as well).

Edited March 16, 2023 by mz-s

[Guest BasicSailor]

4 minutes ago, mz-s said:

the new megaships can't tender, so that really limits the future for places like HMC and Grand Cayman (and of course many other places as well).

These recovery years will be interesting to follow.  I'm thinking major price dropping to survive sometime in the future. Spring Breakers have packed their ships for now.

[mz-s]

1 minute ago, BasicSailor said:

These recovery years will be interesting to follow.  I'm thinking major price dropping to survive sometime in the future. Spring Breakers have packed their ships for now.

 

Revenge travel bubble seems to have peaked. Interesting to see next 18 months or so I agree.

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

I see a series of new builds for some other lines, but Carnival is really in a status quo shuffle game (as they should be with their debt). Royal and NCL are just churning them out. Of course, several years ago I recall NCL took an option and cancelled 1 (or more?) ships due to economic pressures. Who knows if history could repeat itself or not...

 

Royal Caribbean:

 

-----------------------------------

 

NCL:

 

Tom

Not really the same, now is it? Why would Carnival Cruise Lines build new ships when they can repurpose existing ships for a fraction of the cost?

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

34 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Not really the same, now is it? Why would Carnival Cruise Lines build new ships when they can repurpose existing ships for a fraction of the cost?

 

Economically speaking - with current considerations - it's the best (only) path.

 

It will put them at a disadvantage over the next few years, lacking that next flagship or new class of ship excitement/anticipation.

 

It is what it is.

 

Tom

[CarnivalShips480]

1 hour ago, Saint Greg said:

 

I don't think Carnival needs to build new ones right now. They can continue to modernize the fleet by transferring more ships from Costa if they want to. There's another Spirit Class ship, a Dream class ship, and two Excellence class ships all built within the last 10 years they can transfer over. 

Costa needs ships too

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

 

 

It will put them at a disadvantage over the next few years, lacking that next flagship or new class of ship. 

 

 

Not with their target market.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

2 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Not with their target market.

 

There's truth there - there's a new Carnival cruiser born every minute.

 

Tom

[Saint Greg]

Just now, CarnivalShips480 said:

Costa needs ships too

 

Maybe they do. Maybe they don't. 

[CarnivalShips480]

2 minutes ago, Saint Greg said:

 

Maybe they do. Maybe they don't. 

The ships mentioned like Toscana are going to be the last to go