Carnival Stock Drops Again After Earnings Report

[BlerkOne]

In other news, expect the stock to fall tomorrow because the Saudi Arabia and others have announced production cuts. Could be a buying opportunity.

[BermudaBound2014]

24 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Could be a buying opportunity.

Or a selling opportunity for the shorts.

[ontheweb]

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

9 people out of thousands on a cruise ship is almost statistically insignificant. We also know that a number of people who were initially refused were granted OBC if they reapplied.

 

 

That should be 9 people out of the shareholders who applied for credit and had very cheap casino rates, not 9 out of the thousands on the ship.

[BlerkOne]

5 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

That should be 9 people out of the shareholders who applied for credit and had very cheap casino rates, not 9 out of the thousands on the ship.

And who didn't reapply and receive the OBC. If you can get past the hearsay by anonymous people 

[BermudaBound2014]

On 3/28/2023 at 1:07 PM, BlerkOne said:

By a healthy percentage. Probably would have been higher except for being held back by Royal and NCL.

On 3/29/2023 at 4:52 PM, BlerkOne said:

.....CCL stock is up AGAIN. And once again by a higher percentage than the wannabe competition. 

 

One month ago you kept posting how CCL was being held back by RCL and NCL. I said I would check back in at the end of April to look at how CCL has performed after it's 'ginormous run" and to also examine how CCL has compared against its 'wannabe competition" of NCL and RCL.

 

Granted, one month is a short amount of time but after one month, the NCL and RCL 'wannabes' are certainly not holding back CCL stock. It looks to me like these 'wannabe's" are propping it up.

 

CCL down 4.2%

RCL down 1.2%

NCL up 1.1% 

Dow Jones up 4.1%

 

 

 

In fairness, one month is a short amount of time. Over the last two years the "wannabe's" have also outperformed CCL.

 

CCL down 68%

NCL down 59%

RCL down 30%

Dow Jones down 2%

 

 

 

 

 

And at 5 years. Note that CCL was already trailing the 'wannabe' competition years before Covid. Looks to me like the 'wannabe's" are consistently outperforming CCL. 

 

CCl down 86%

NCL down 77%

RCL down 46%

Dow Jones up 37%

 

 

 

 

NCL and RCL both release their quarterlies next week. I expect there will be substantial movement in all three stocks. In fact, I predict a volatile cruise industry market for decades to come. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[BlerkOne]

CCL long term debt has peaked. The other cruise lines?

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/be8d620e-92ae-3b78-b414-3ddab1a683d4/4-big-reasons-to-be-bullish.html

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/27/is-carnival-a-buy-yet/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

CCL long term debt has peaked. The other cruise lines?

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/be8d620e-92ae-3b78-b414-3ddab1a683d4/4-big-reasons-to-be-bullish.html

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/27/is-carnival-a-buy-yet/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

 

 

That's almost funny. As you well know, the debt having reached it's peak is only a prediction by Bernstein. I can't count how many times CCL has been wrong in it's predictions. Very wrong. Laughable wrong. It's understandable since the pandemic recovery has been hit with many obstacles. But still....

 

Even if we believe that CCL debt has reached it's peak (and it may have), the actual numbers Bernstein quoted drop from 35B to 33.5B. Interest on the debt is still, as you would say, "ginormous".  Reducing 35 Billion in debt by only 1.5 Billion a year is not a sustainable business plan, especially  given interest rate are still on the rise.

 

 

And before you bring up the very overused "best booking season ever' chant that Bernstein likes to rally behind, let us not forget that CCL has been offering extremely low $1 - $25 deposits across it's brand. That will boost booking numbers. But, as you also know, occupancy numbers have not held up to CCL predictions and it's the occupancy numbers that count. I believe that in the fall of 2021 CCL predicted occupancy to reach 100% by the spring of 2022. Yet another prediction that failed to materialize. 

 

None of this changes the absolute fact that both the 'wannabes" (NCL and RCL) have outperformed CCL over the last month since you posted in this thread. And the absolute fact is that those same wannabes have outperformed CCL over last five years as well.

 

ps: 

Don't get me wrong, I think CCL is postured much better than NCL in the long run simply because they can sell off cruise ships/lines.  Heck, they sold off Seabourn Odyssey just a few weeks ago. Time will tell how this all plays out, but I'll be back again after CCL releases their next quarterly to see if Bernstein's predictions have come to light.

 

 

[ray98]

Logic and math have no place in this topic.  LOL.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

 

ps: 

Don't get me wrong, I think CCL is postured much better than NCL in the long run simply because they can sell off cruise ships/lines.  Heck, they sold off Seabourn Odyssey just a few weeks ago. Time will tell how this all plays out, but I'll be back again after CCL releases their next quarterly to see if Bernstein's predictions have come to light.

 

 

Some of us have a life. Heck, Royal sold off a cruise line. We'll see if the numbers Royal releases drag Carnival down some more.

[bucfan2]

It will be interesting to see who survives/thrives when all the dust settles.  Barring another plandemic of course, which could be bad for all.

[BlerkOne]

CCL has begun buying CUK stock again in a previously announced stock swap. Several times in the past week.

[Lee Cruiser]

52 minutes ago, bucfan2 said:

It will be interesting to see who survives/thrives when all the dust settles.  Barring another plandemic of course, which could be bad for all.

My guess is that with the demand for cruising, all of the big three survive.

[Lee Cruiser]

The stock for all three is popping today, well above the overall market.  I'm not sure the reason, but it looks like RCI is leading the way as it is up a lot more than the other two.

[john91498]

So much speculation over a piddly little $10 dollar stock...🤣

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, Lee Cruiser said:

The stock for all three is popping today, well above the overall market.  I'm not sure the reason, but it looks like RCI is leading the way as it is up a lot more than the other two.

 

I suspect this jump is due to market manipulation regarding the quarterly release next week of RCL. All three cruise lines move in unison.  If history since the shutdown repeats itself, cruise stock will behave very erratically for the next few weeks.

[tidecat]

But wait, there's more!

 

The Fed is meeting next week (May 2-3), and while the consensus is that another 0.25% rate hike is expected, any surprises there will likely impact the market as a whole.

 

That said, around 75-80% of Carnival's debt is at fixed rates, so an increase may not have much impact.