intl business class fare

[rinshin]

I just checked my business class flight booked and purchased in December from SFO to Amsterdam in May for type of craft and was shocked to find that price has doubled.  We travel to Japan annually and use to think that best price was found around 4 months from departure but apparently that is not the case anymore.  How far in advance are you finding the best price?  

[JM0115]

11 minutes ago, rinshin said:

I just checked my business class flight booked and purchased in December from SFO to Amsterdam in May for type of craft and was shocked to find that price has doubled.  We travel to Japan annually and use to think that best price was found around 4 months from departure but apparently that is not the case anymore.  How far in advance are you finding the best price?  

I purchase as far out as possible. Typically 330 to 355 days out depending on airline's policy.

[Gardyloo]

Airlines set fares based on very complex and very secret algorithms that constantly monitor factors like pace of sales, the price of competitors' flights, fuel prices, on and on.  Trying to outsmart these robots is a fool's errand.  

 

Many people think that earlier in the sales window is better, but in fact, sometimes airlines set fares higher in the early days of the booking period in order to hedge against their own costs going up in the 11- or 12-month interim.  Fuel costs might spike, labor troubles emerge, whatever, so setting prices high early on gives the airlines a financial cushion.  Like I say, sometimes early birds get worms and sometimes they get cats.

 

When you find a fare you can live with, pull the trigger and don't look back.  It's easier on the nerves.

[Zach1213]

Eh, it's hard to tell. Depends so much on so many different things. For example, I've had to go to Seoul the last three months in a row, booking anywhere from three days out to 45 days out. Three days out was most expensive, 45 days out was middle, and two weeks out was the least expensive. But if I did the same series of bookings at the same intervals now, I wouldn't expect it to be the same order of pricing. It's just such a crap shoot. 

[6rugrats]

No one can predict when they will be cheaper.  Just because they are double the price now, doesn't mean the airline won't open up seats later in a lower-fare class.   I no longer track fares and never used cash to purchase an international business class seat in the past, only miles.   All I look at are loads now because I want to non-rev in style.

Edited February 21 by 6rugrats

[mr_reiter]

I found this cartoon from the NewYorker to be prophetic.

 

[SelectSys]

On 2/21/2024 at 8:26 AM, Gardyloo said:

When you find a fare you can live with, pull the trigger and don't look back.  It's easier on the nerves.

100% in agreement and even more so with cruises which have fixed departure and return dates.  It's simply unknowable when a good deal is going to come up outside of maybe some general seasonal considerations.

[SoloAlaska]

I start watching at 10 months but try to buy before 6 months for international. In that period I try to wait for a seat sale or bonus points deal. Flights have just gotten insanely expensive lately. For North America I start at 8 months and try to buy before 4 months.

[Dancer Bob]

I can't out-think the algorithm but maybe I can out-think other people. I looked at a flight to DXB as soon as it opened, it was the same price I paid last year, I booked. I figure the algorithm knows people look but don't book, so it offers some cheap seats now to bring people back later. That does rely on having experience with that exact flight.

[muffydawg]

My recipe for Biz class tickets includes establishing a price I'm willing to pay. and never looking back. Purchased Biz class tickets right after Xmas 2023 for our upcoming October 2024 voyage

[waterbug123]

On 2/21/2024 at 10:08 AM, rinshin said:

use to think that best price was found around 4 months from departure but apparently that is not the case anymore.  How far in advance are you finding the best price?  

There is no set time when prices are always best.  If you found that it was consistently at 4 months out, I can assure you that was just a coincidence.   You'll kill yourself trying to out-think the airlines' pricing algorithms.