Cruise Industry Positive Outlook and HAL Ships

[CNSJ]

From all accounts I read, tourism is up, particularly North Americans taking longer and more expensive vacations/holidays and even the shoulder seasons are becoming more and more crowded.  Cruise line bookings across most US cruise lines are booming in all markets, and cruising is a value when you look at the cost of hotels and meals.  We see more crowded - sold out ships and fares are up. Three years ago many said the industry would die due to COVID.

 

Cruise lines are feeling the benefit of the boomers spending of their savings/investments more and the following generations just spending.

Carnival Corp is starting to pay down debt, and is ordering large ships for Princess and Carnival.  So what about new HAL ships?

 

HAL has 11 ships, the oldest being 25 years old (Volendam, and R-Class ship).  The R class are great for world cruises and they have a loyal following amongst long term HAL cruisers.  I have only sailed the older Rotterdam VI  (R-Class), and enjoyed it.  Other than the older Rotterdam V which sailed from 1959-1997 (more than 37 years) - HAL rarely keeps a ship more than 25-28 years, and Volendam is now getting older.  

 

What is on the horizon for HAL new ships?  Cunard's Queen Anne is on her first season and is a grand ship based on the HAL Pinnacle Class, adding about 15% more tonnage and an equal number of additional passengers.  She shares a great deal of hull/mechanical systems as her little sisters which is a plus for Carnival Corp who owns both lines.  Cost per berth vs revenue per berth is the basic cruise line financial equation.  Ships like Konningsdam generally have a lower cost per berth than ships like Volendam as you only need one Captain, one Chief Engineer etc., and newer ships are built to be run more economically.  At about 113,000 Tons Queen Anne is "mid-sized" when you compare the average of the new builds delivered/on order for 2024-2027 is close to 170,000 tons.  

 

** As Princess, NCL, and Celebrity shed their "mid-sized ships" fans of the ~80,000 - 100,000 tons ships will be looking for a new homes they can only find mega ships within their favorite line.

 

I predict we will see HAL order a new ship in the coming year based on the Queen Anne stretching of the Pinnacle class (after all, how long can the go without a ship named Amsterdam?). It will allow HAL to retire one of the R class within a year or two and perhaps hold one for world cruises even after the next ship is delivered.  HAL doesn't Zuiderdam just wrapped up world cruise, so the lessons learned from a Vista class world cruise are documented.  

 

Thoughts out there??

 

Six of you will write to build ships like Prinsendam, but that's just counter-financially sound for HAL/Carnival Corp. Today that's Seabourn's territory.  Yes, it is about money in the end. 

 

 

[Eric from San Diego]

Cruise lines want young people who drink a lot and gamble a lot.  Anybody who has been on a Carnival cruise has seen the money flow.  Passengers so drunk they can barely stand at the safety drill before leaving port. Casinos so crowded there is an hour wait for a slot machine or a seat at a poker table.   HAL passengers don't spend money and are in bed by 10.  Don't expect any new ships for HAL any time soon.  Everybody is playing catchup with RCL and their megaships and HAL is not part of that picture.  

[CNSJ]

27 minutes ago, Eric from San Diego said:

and HAL is not part of that picture

Is this manifests, I'll enjoy the next XX years with HAL, then search for my new cruise line that caters to folks like me that enjoy the journey.  I may have to pay more and cruise less.

[sambamama]

Based on managerial decisions by HAL, it sounds like they are drastically trying to change their passenger base.  With the decisions to eliminate classical music, allow people of 3-4 to book previously booked cabins out from the cruisers of two who booked them long ago, their eliminating all solo supplements less than 80 %, and cutting back on dining room food, and closing the MDR on port days, they want a much younger crowd. HAL got rid of the smaller ships I preferred.  And I don't want to sail on the Konigsdam class ever. 

Yes, they will probably have money to build a new ship. And it will be a Pinnacle class.  But I won't care, and I can't afford to go.  HAL has decided they don't want me as a 4 star solo passenger, and I get a great deal more value from traveling by land.

[St Pete Cruiser]

I'm looking for a new build announcement any day now.  Yes, probably on the Queen Anne base with options for 2 or 3 more.  The delay may be the decision on powerplants and fuel.  I look for burning the heavy fuel oils to be eliminated as more areas will be banning their use.

Ok, not a Prinsendam, but maybe we, i.e. Holland America, can take Seaborne's old tonnage as they are replaced?

[chisoxfan]

I don't see new ships from HAL. I think it is a matter of time before CCL let's them be absorbed/merged with Princess who has plenty of new ships and investment including new Sphere class. CCL has Cunard/ Seabourn high end, Princess (HAL) upscale mainstream, and Carnival mainstream (along with European brands).  The current HAL ships based on size, age, and demographics cannot be that profitable on a cost/revenue per passenger (just my guess ). IMHO CCL will let HAL ride their aging demographic and fleet into the sunset. Still hoping to take more HAL cruises but I am in the aging demographic.

[aliaschief]

With so many ports of call now restricting or downright banning cruise ships in their ports what does the future hold? Now even Alaska is discussing restrictions or limitations.

Could there be a future glut of cruise ships? Or is guest capacity getting so large cities can’t handle the surge?
That crosses my mind now and then.

[Roz]

4 hours ago, CNSJ said:

HAL doesn't Zuiderdam just wrapped up world cruise, so the lessons learned from a Vista class world cruise are documented.  

 

What does this mean???

[Roz]

1 hour ago, chisoxfan said:

IMHO CCL will let HAL ride their aging demographic and fleet into the sunset.

 

There will always be a new crop of oldsters, as everyone eventually ages. 😁

 

Both Princess and Cunard are introducing ships into their fleet with more amenities than can be found on HAL.  I agree with you about HAL being absorbed into Princess, and have thought that for a long time.

[oaktreerb]

According to an officer I talked to in June on the Westerdam, HAL is now grouped with Seabourn in the CCL family.  I can’t figure out how that relates to the Princess/HAL group in Alaska, i didn’t ask about that.

 

HAL is currently controlled by their top management and few decisions seem to be made at ship level.  Our recent “Legendary” Alaska  cruise was obviously a top down itinerary with decisions made far away from the location in which we were traveling.  One true Alaska wilderness expert was onboard, others were hired who did not have the skills to present the material without reading from the i-pad.  One lecturer was a volunteer who paid for the cruise and HAL gave him time to tell his fascinating story in the MDR.  He was our second knowledgeable expert.

 

The position of CD and TD have been combined which means there is no credible Travel Director.  There are canned presentations narrated by the CD.  Our native voices presenter was hired two weeks prior to joining the ship and was not onboard throughout the journey.  I think she joined in Seward and disembarked a week later in Anchorage.  Her local knowledge would have been priceless throughout the 28 day journey, considering the vastness of the subject matter.

 

HAL will continue to do the short 7 day casino cruises and is trying to get back into the EXC level of the longer itineraries.  Right now the expertise does not exist.  We all remember those great locations ambassadors of the past who had time to sit at a desk and answer questions and actually feel you were worthy of their time for a discussion.  (Kainoa comes to mind in the Hawaii/Alaska market).

 

I’m not sure HAL needs any more ships at this time.  Ports are overcrowded.  Maybe they just need to develop a mission statement which shows a path forward.  HAL is not the same cruise line as pre-Covid.  HAL has lost its identity.  Short trips, kids free.  Long itineraries focused on EXC experiences for adults.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

7 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

There will always be a new crop of oldsters, as everyone eventually ages. 😁

 

Both Princess and Cunard are introducing ships into their fleet with more amenities than can be found on HAL.  I agree with you about HAL being absorbed into Princess, and have thought that for a long time.

I actually thought it might happen during the Covid shutdown. This has been a very valid possibility before we knew what would happen with Covid. Although I do feel in the last 6 months Sales with HAL have been stronger than they were pre pandemic. I think this could be  a light and the end of the tunnel for HAL but they need to Up their game to compete. But that would mean HAL needs to convince those holding the purse string to open up a bit more.

[Roz]

20 minutes ago, oaktreerb said:

I’m not sure HAL needs any more ships at this time.

 

They need different ships, not necessarily more ships.

[atexsix]

While HAL ships are still the best for me in terms of atmosphere, the only reason I keep coming back is because of the people on this board that I have met on various cruises.  However, I am starting to look more in the direction of cruise lines that have smaller ships like Oceania.  At least for now, as even their ships are getting larger.  

[CNSJ]

1 hour ago, Roz said:

What does this mean???

My cut & paste from Word mixed this up!

 

Was supposed to say...

 

"HAL's Vista Class Zuiderdam just wrapped up world cruise, so the lessons learned from a Vista class world cruise are documented. " 

 

Regret my poor pre-send proof reading!!

 

Edited July 11 by CNSJ

[Roz]

@CNSJ, so what the lessons learned from a Vista class world cruise?

[Sir PMP]

2 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

I don't see new ships from HAL. I think it is a matter of time before CCL let's them be absorbed/merged with Princess who has plenty of new ships and investment including new Sphere class. CCL has Cunard/ Seabourn high end, Princess (HAL) upscale mainstream, and Carnival mainstream (along with European brands).  The current HAL ships based on size, age, and demographics cannot be that profitable on a cost/revenue per passenger (just my guess ). IMHO CCL will let HAL ride their aging demographic and fleet into the sunset. Still hoping to take more HAL cruises but I am in the aging demographic.

I wonder how they do their calculation at Viking, Seabourn, Sliversea and Regent.

[Sir PMP]

2 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

I don't see new ships from HAL. I think it is a matter of time before CCL let's them be absorbed/merged with Princess who has plenty of new ships and investment including new Sphere class. CCL has Cunard/ Seabourn high end, Princess (HAL) upscale mainstream, and Carnival mainstream (along with European brands).  The current HAL ships based on size, age, and demographics cannot be that profitable on a cost/revenue per passenger (just my guess ). IMHO CCL will let HAL ride their aging demographic and fleet into the sunset. Still hoping to take more HAL cruises but I am in the aging demographic.

Well, I won't be merging with Princess.

[CNSJ]

Just now, Roz said:

so what the lessons learned from a Vista class world cruise?

HAL would know, but I don't know, because I didn't take the 2024WC, and HAL would not probably share the details.  

 

But many things impact the class on long journeys away from recurring homeports.  This includes, port logistics, fuel burn, adequate freezer and chill box space, general storage, medical spaces, cabin storage, etc.  Then there is the ability to fill the ship with passengers.  This needs to be compared against the R-Class.  Just my thoughts. 

[CNSJ]

1 minute ago, Sir PMP said:

Well, I won't be merging with Princess.

@Sir PMP I am reserving my veto of the merger should it occur as well.  I would force myself to pack a Tuxedo in my suitcase and sail Cunard first.  @The Inside Cabin would be happy if we all did. 

[chisoxfan]

19 minutes ago, Sir PMP said:

I wonder how they do their calculation at Viking, Seabourn, Sliversea and Regent.

Above my pay grade but for general interest here is a RCCL revenue breakdown pp. CCL seems to be much lower revenue pp than NCL or RCCL. The food number looks unbelievably low. 

Of the $1,818, 68.8% ($1,251 per passenger) was spent on cruise fare and the remaining 31.2% ($567 per passenger) was spent onboard for everything from booze to t-shirts in the gift shop

[RClark6369@aol.com]

I predict an announcement before year's end that HAL will be building Ryndam (which was the name for the current Rotterdam before it was changed at the last minute prior to launch, you can actually see the name still engaved on the hull of Rotterdam) in late 2027 and Veendam in 2028.  With options for 2 more ships in 2030.

 

I will ask the Gods in Greece on my Med cruise in a couple of months whether they agree with my predictions.    Just call me HALAnostradamous.

 

Cheers

Rex

[BermudaBound2014]

Interesting tid bit: I believe that HAL and Seabourn actually share the same office address and Princess is a block away. 

[oaktreerb]

26 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Interesting tid bit: I believe that HAL and Seabourn actually share the same office address and Princess is a block away. 

HAL and Seabourn have also shared Captains.

[oaktreerb]

Correction to my post #10.  The guest presenter actually was allowed to give his talks on the World Stage (not MDR🤔).  Good for HAL for allowing Joseph Oaks to use HAL’s video presentation media to show his slides and tell us the story of Swimming from Russia to Alaska in the Diomedes.  We missed sailing around Little Diomede because of Walrus hunting season.  His lecture gave us an in-depth knowledge of the relationship and closeness of Alaska to Russia!  Great Enrichment!

[TRLD]

10 hours ago, CNSJ said:

From all accounts I read, tourism is up, particularly North Americans taking longer and more expensive vacations/holidays and even the shoulder seasons are becoming more and more crowded.  Cruise line bookings across most US cruise lines are booming in all markets, and cruising is a value when you look at the cost of hotels and meals.  We see more crowded - sold out ships and fares are up. Three years ago many said the industry would die due to COVID.

 

Cruise lines are feeling the benefit of the boomers spending of their savings/investments more and the following generations just spending.

Carnival Corp is starting to pay down debt, and is ordering large ships for Princess and Carnival.  So what about new HAL ships?

 

HAL has 11 ships, the oldest being 25 years old (Volendam, and R-Class ship).  The R class are great for world cruises and they have a loyal following amongst long term HAL cruisers.  I have only sailed the older Rotterdam VI  (R-Class), and enjoyed it.  Other than the older Rotterdam V which sailed from 1959-1997 (more than 37 years) - HAL rarely keeps a ship more than 25-28 years, and Volendam is now getting older.  

 

What is on the horizon for HAL new ships?  Cunard's Queen Anne is on her first season and is a grand ship based on the HAL Pinnacle Class, adding about 15% more tonnage and an equal number of additional passengers.  She shares a great deal of hull/mechanical systems as her little sisters which is a plus for Carnival Corp who owns both lines.  Cost per berth vs revenue per berth is the basic cruise line financial equation.  Ships like Konningsdam generally have a lower cost per berth than ships like Volendam as you only need one Captain, one Chief Engineer etc., and newer ships are built to be run more economically.  At about 113,000 Tons Queen Anne is "mid-sized" when you compare the average of the new builds delivered/on order for 2024-2027 is close to 170,000 tons.  

 

** As Princess, NCL, and Celebrity shed their "mid-sized ships" fans of the ~80,000 - 100,000 tons ships will be looking for a new homes they can only find mega ships within their favorite line.

 

I predict we will see HAL order a new ship in the coming year based on the Queen Anne stretching of the Pinnacle class (after all, how long can the go without a ship named Amsterdam?). It will allow HAL to retire one of the R class within a year or two and perhaps hold one for world cruises even after the next ship is delivered.  HAL doesn't Zuiderdam just wrapped up world cruise, so the lessons learned from a Vista class world cruise are documented.  

 

Thoughts out there??

 

Six of you will write to build ships like Prinsendam, but that's just counter-financially sound for HAL/Carnival Corp. Today that's Seabourn's territory.  Yes, it is about money in the end. 

 

 

Based upon ship age and past behavior I expect HAL to order an new 3 ship series with the first order placed for delivery in 27.  Expect it to be above 2500 but less than 3000 passenger capacity.