Cruise Industry Positive Outlook and HAL Ships

[Wayward Son]

40 minutes ago, JeffElizabeth said:

Split the difference and go back to the 1200 person boats? 

 

There are plenty of +/- 1200 pax ships. But none at HAL prices. You can't have both.

 

[TRLD]

7 hours ago, JeffElizabeth said:

Strange that cruise lines claim finances are driving them to the giant ships because I also see more expedition style ships out there.  Split the difference and go back to the 1200 person boats? 

Sure expedition ships at lowest cabin at 300+ per day vs HAL lowest cabin at 150+ per day. With cabin prices increasing at a similar ratio as one goes through the various categories.

[kangforpres]

Also remember the citizens of Juneau, AK soon have a plebicite on deciding wether or not to allow ships bigger than 250 px make port calls on Saturdays. 

 

Around the world in over tourist spots there is a backlash to over-tourism. It's a love-hate relationship with the locals who live there. That would make one assume building larger ships will not increase a cruise lines chances of visiting some of the most famous tourist destinations with their new ships.

 

for lots of  HAL passengers things like attractive itineraries and time in port are more important than cost of cruise.

 

-Paul

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, kangforpres said:

Also remember the citizens of Juneau, AK soon have a plebicite on deciding wether or not to allow ships bigger than 250 px make port calls on Saturdays. 

 

Around the world in over tourist spots there is a backlash to over-tourism. It's a love-hate relationship with the locals who live there. That would make one assume building larger ships will not increase a cruise lines chances of visiting some of the most famous tourist destinations with their new ships.

 

for lots of  HAL passengers things like attractive itineraries and time in port are more important than cost of cruise.

 

-Paul

 

Yep, and just today you had this...

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/22/travel/mass-protest-on-spanish-island-mallorca-calls-for-limits-on-tourism/index.html

 

 

 

Like I said, we're just misunderstood 😄 😄 🙂 

[TRLD]

3 hours ago, kangforpres said:

Also remember the citizens of Juneau, AK soon have a plebicite on deciding wether or not to allow ships bigger than 250 px make port calls on Saturdays. 

 

Around the world in over tourist spots there is a backlash to over-tourism. It's a love-hate relationship with the locals who live there. That would make one assume building larger ships will not increase a cruise lines chances of visiting some of the most famous tourist destinations with their new ships.

 

for lots of  HAL passengers things like attractive itineraries and time in port are more important than cost of cruise.

 

-Paul

For some of HALs passengers certainly  Most of those that do not care about costs tend to already cruise on smaller Premium and luxury lines. As much as some say that cost does not matter, the price point certainly does impact the number of passengers booking.

 

HAL is in a rather individual niche right now with unique itineraries, below 3000 ship size and mass market pricing.   Going with smaller ships would put them in direct price competition with Oceania and Azamara.

[TRLD]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Yep, and just today you had this...

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/22/travel/mass-protest-on-spanish-island-mallorca-calls-for-limits-on-tourism/index.html

 

 

 

Like I said, we're just misunderstood 😄 😄 🙂 

Not if you read Catalan

[Wayward Son]

4 hours ago, kangforpres said:

for lots of  HAL passengers things like attractive itineraries and time in port are more important than cost of cruise.

 

If that were true, they would be on Viking, Oceania, Seabourn, Silversea, Regent etc.  I believe HAL passengers like the current ships and lower price. If HAL builds new, small, 1200 pax ships, you will be paying a lot more than current HAL prices -- and HAL will lose customers to the above mentioned lines.

 

[HappyInVan]

On 7/11/2024 at 1:28 PM, chisoxfan said:

Above my pay grade but for general interest here is a RCCL revenue breakdown pp. CCL seems to be much lower revenue pp than NCL or RCCL...

 

Not a surprise.

 

The closure of P&O Australia is a good sign. Someone is awake at CCL HQ.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%26O_Cruises_Australia

 

This only affects the 3 ships run by P&O Australia. However, I hope that this is the beginning of a corporate re-structuring. Reducing the number of brands, sharpening the focus of the remaining brands, and right-sizing capacity.

 

I'm fairly certain that HAL (if it survives) will be very different from that of 10 years ago.

 

Happy cruising.

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

In 2007 7% of North America's were on a cruise at least once. Today that number is higher.

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

In 2007 7% of North America's were on a cruise at least once. Today that number is higher.

How much higher?

[TRLD]

5 hours ago, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

In 2007 7% of North America's were on a cruise at least once. Today that number is higher.

While the current CLIA report doesn't give that statistic, it did go into how the future is younger  cruisers and the 27% of cruisers are first timers.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

On 7/11/2024 at 12:36 PM, St Pete Cruiser said:

I'm looking for a new build announcement any day now.  Yes, probably on the Queen Anne base with options for 2 or 3 more.  The delay may be the decision on powerplants and fuel.  I look for burning the heavy fuel oils to be eliminated as more areas will be banning their use.

Ok, not a Prinsendam, but maybe we, i.e. Holland America, can take Seaborne's old tonnage as they are replaced?

 

There was a new ship order placed yesterday. Three 230,000 g/t ships to sail under the Carnival brand. All LNG. According to Weinstein they are 'doubling down' on building Carnival ships. Nothing on the horizon for HAL. 

 

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/shipbuilding-equipment/carnival-cruise-line-roll-order-three-big-new-ships-fincantieri

 

 

[JeffElizabeth]

On 7/22/2024 at 9:52 AM, kangforpres said:

Also remember the citizens of Juneau, AK soon have a plebicite on deciding wether or not to allow ships bigger than 250 px make port calls on Saturdays. 

 

Around the world in over tourist spots there is a backlash to over-tourism. It's a love-hate relationship with the locals who live there. That would make one assume building larger ships will not increase a cruise lines chances of visiting some of the most famous tourist destinations with their new ships.

 

for lots of  HAL passengers things like attractive itineraries and time in port are more important than cost of cruise.

 

-Paul

Exactly.  Some of our most memorable cruises were on the Prinsendam visiting small towns in the British Isles, or squeezing through the Kiel Canal. We knew we were paying a premium to do this but it was worth it. The towns eagerly welcomed their one cruise ship of the year. And the Kiel residents had American style BBQ's as we passed their homes.

[Lunar Dragon]

8 hours ago, JeffElizabeth said:

Exactly.  Some of our most memorable cruises were on the Prinsendam visiting small towns in the British Isles, or squeezing through the Kiel Canal. We knew we were paying a premium to do this but it was worth it. The towns eagerly welcomed their one cruise ship of the year. And the Kiel residents had American style BBQ's as we passed their homes.

We have also sailed many times  on the Prinsendam visiting Bordeaux, La Rochelle, Fowey and many other smaller ports.  We were also on the last Kiel Canal transit on the Rotterdam VI which was larger than the Prinsendam but could still access smaller ports.  If HAL keeps building larger and larger ships, sailing the same itineraries, eventually we will have seen it all.  I am already seeing repeat ports to Iceland, Scotland Norway  and England -each year the same.  Is HAL just focusing on attracting first time cruisers and are forgetting their large Mariner base??

[TRLD]

12 hours ago, Lunar Dragon said:

We have also sailed many times  on the Prinsendam visiting Bordeaux, La Rochelle, Fowey and many other smaller ports.  We were also on the last Kiel Canal transit on the Rotterdam VI which was larger than the Prinsendam but could still access smaller ports.  If HAL keeps building larger and larger ships, sailing the same itineraries, eventually we will have seen it all.  I am already seeing repeat ports to Iceland, Scotland Norway  and England -each year the same.  Is HAL just focusing on attracting first time cruisers and are forgetting their large Mariner base??

There are currently 2 sides to HAL. There are those areas where they are competing directly with other lines such as Europe and Alaska during the summer and the Caribbean in the winter. In those areas they tend to  7 day cruises, with the larger newer ships.

 

Then there is the other side of HAL with longer, unique itineraries, usually on their older smaller ships. 

 

Out of the mass market lines HAL hits the most destinations (550) compared to Princess (about 450) and Celebrity ( about 350)

 

One can go to the premium lines such as Oceania or Azamara who have smaller ships and unique destinations, but are limited in the number of ships and itineraries. And a price point about 2 to 3 time Hal for many of the similar cabin types.

 

 

[Heartgrove]

One thing that HAL should do is take a page from MSC's operation. MSC has four older, smaller ships that they continue to operate. They feel that if they sold them to a smaller cruise line, those ships would in turn become competition for their remaining ships. Better to run the life out of them and scrap them than create a competitor. HAL, in my opinion, hurt themselves by selling the ex-Amsterdam and ex-Rotterdam to Fred Olsen Cruise Lines to now sail as their Borealis and  Bolette. Fred Olsen touts believing smaller is better and is very proud of their small ship fleet. Their fares are competitively priced as well.

[TRLD]

4 minutes ago, Heartgrove said:

One thing that HAL should do is take a page from MSC's operation. MSC has four older, smaller ships that they continue to operate. They feel that if they sold them to a smaller cruise line, those ships would in turn become competition for their remaining ships. Better to run the life out of them and scrap them than create a competitor. HAL, in my opinion, hurt themselves by selling the ex-Amsterdam and ex-Rotterdam to Fred Olsen Cruise Lines to now sail as their Borealis and  Bolette. Fred Olsen touts believing smaller is better and is very proud of their small ship fleet. Their fares are competitively priced as well.

However Fred Olsen is not really considered to be a direct competitor to HAL.

 

In the past the economic calculations were in favor of getting rid of ships before the costs kicked up at 25.

 

At this point with the limited capital, Fred Olsen, is a good example in showing that HAL could keep their older ships around for a couple of years longer than they have in the past, until they can be replaced.

 

Unfortunately I do not think if it is a question of if at some point all HAL.ships will be in the 2000 - 3000 passenger, but a question of when. 

[Heartgrove]

51 minutes ago, TRLD said:

However Fred Olsen is not really considered to be a direct competitor to HAL.

 

 

I beg to differ as any passenger that books one of their cruises means that they are not sailing with HAL. Fred Olsen does the small ship ports that HAL is not able to do now. They are even capable of using one of their ships to sail inland on the Seine River to Rouen, France. That is a cruise similar to what HAL would have done with the Prinsendam. A few years ago HAL had four ships sailing in Europe but now three, at times four.

[TRLD]

2 hours ago, Heartgrove said:

 

I beg to differ as any passenger that books one of their cruises means that they are not sailing with HAL. Fred Olsen does the small ship ports that HAL is not able to do now. They are even capable of using one of their ships to sail inland on the Seine River to Rouen, France. That is a cruise similar to what HAL would have done with the Prinsendam. A few years ago HAL had four ships sailing in Europe but now three, at times four.

Fred Olsen is almost exclusively UK. When we were on them a few years ago we were the only US passenger on them. Very similar to what one finds on P&O UK. Last year when we were on P&O (we are on them again this fall) we did not run into any passengers from NA or for that matter anyone outside of the British Isles.

 

So the potential overlap for passengers would be the number of UK customers that sail on HAL. 

 

Then when one considers the potential itinerary overlap, you can to a pretty low number of potential loss of customers to Fred Olsen.

 

 Compared to the competition of the other NA focused lines (Princess, Celebrity),  the similarly sized Cunard, the premium lines (Azamara, Oceania) or for that matter even the family lines of NCL and Royal. I would expect the view of management on the competitive threat of Fred Olsen to be pretty low.

 

Considering the number of Dutch and German passengers that one finds on HAL cruises, German speaking Aida probably is more of a risk as far as competition. Or if one wants to sail the Prinsendam again Phoenix Reisen.

 

Edited July 26 by TRLD

[JeffElizabeth]

Miss the Amsterdam and the Rotterdam too. We were on the last complete cruise of the Rotterdam when Covid-19 struck. Such a beautiful old ship. And we visited Alaska on the Amsterdam the year before. 

Is Holland becoming Princess? 

[TRLD]

24 minutes ago, JeffElizabeth said:

Miss the Amsterdam and the Rotterdam too. We were on the last complete cruise of the Rotterdam when Covid-19 struck. Such a beautiful old ship. And we visited Alaska on the Amsterdam the year before. 

Is Holland becoming Princess? 

No. Princess is clearly moving to the 4000+ ships, with more marketing to multigenerational. With the larger ships comes more entertainment and activities, but starts to restrict potential port calls. The distance in positioning between HAL and Princess will remain the same, even as both lines change a bit as times and competition change.

 

HAL will clearly remain in its niche area. A line with mass market pricing, with an adult focus. One that has the smallest average ship size compared to its main competition (Celebrity and Princess), that has the most destinations and longest average cruise length. 

 

So no it is not becoming Princess, though it is a bit closer to what Princess used to be as far as ship size 15 to 20 years ago.

 

We sail on many different lines, 7 last year. We sail on Princess on Trans Atlantic cruises because of the value and entertainment options (between Elite status and various OBC Princess start at about a $1000 advantage on a 14 day cruise). We cruise HAL on longer more unique routes like Vancouver to Yokohama. Itineraries that hit places we want to see. HAL is less of a value then Princess, but better then any of the premium lines.

 

We also sale Celebrity, Azamara, Oceania, P&O UK fairly routinely (though Oceania is less likely after our last 22 day cruise on them and their move to simply more) as well as occasional cruises every few years on other lines. Lately we  like taking the Yacht cruises in the 40 to 50 passenger range that are available in Croatia, Greece and a few other places. Their pricing is competitive with the premium lines.

Edited July 26 by TRLD

[chisoxfan]

44 minutes ago, TRLD said:

HAL will clearly remain in its niche area. A line with mass market pricing, with an adult focus. One that has the smallest average ship size compared to its main competition (Celebrity and Princess), that has the most destinations and longest average cruise length. 

 

So no it is not becoming Princess, though it is a bit closer to what Princess used to be as far as ship size 15 to 20 years ago.

Unfortunately an awkward position that locks HAL in a conundrum. I cannot imagine there will be investment in new ships in the small and midsize range particularly when (as you state) their pricing is frozen with 'mass market pricing'. CCL has recently committed to new 'large' ships for Carnival and new ships for Princess moving forward (Sphere).  I wasn't suggesting HAL  becomes Princess as much as the Pinnacle class ships would absorb into Princess. Can the smaller HAL ships remain profitable with mass market pricing? I don't know but the demographic still seems to be shrinking and also expects a high level of quality than perhaps cannot  be supplied on small ships with challenged profitability. Things can perhaps remain stagnant until the current 'balloon' of cruise pricing and bookings pops with recession. Certainly no crystal ball here but cannot see (sadly) how HAL thrives in the long term as it exists. JMHO

[jeh10641]

On 7/11/2024 at 7:04 AM, CNSJ said:

From all accounts I read, tourism is up, particularly North Americans taking longer and more expensive vacations/holidays and even the shoulder seasons are becoming more and more crowded.  Cruise line bookings across most US cruise lines are booming in all markets, and cruising is a value when you look at the cost of hotels and meals.  We see more crowded - sold out ships and fares are up. Three years ago many said the industry would die due to COVID.

 

Cruise lines are feeling the benefit of the boomers spending of their savings/investments more and the following generations just spending.

Carnival Corp is starting to pay down debt, and is ordering large ships for Princess and Carnival.  So what about new HAL ships?

 

HAL has 11 ships, the oldest being 25 years old (Volendam, and R-Class ship).  The R class are great for world cruises and they have a loyal following amongst long term HAL cruisers.  I have only sailed the older Rotterdam VI  (R-Class), and enjoyed it.  Other than the older Rotterdam V which sailed from 1959-1997 (more than 37 years) - HAL rarely keeps a ship more than 25-28 years, and Volendam is now getting older.  

 

What is on the horizon for HAL new ships?  Cunard's Queen Anne is on her first season and is a grand ship based on the HAL Pinnacle Class, adding about 15% more tonnage and an equal number of additional passengers.  She shares a great deal of hull/mechanical systems as her little sisters which is a plus for Carnival Corp who owns both lines.  Cost per berth vs revenue per berth is the basic cruise line financial equation.  Ships like Konningsdam generally have a lower cost per berth than ships like Volendam as you only need one Captain, one Chief Engineer etc., and newer ships are built to be run more economically.  At about 113,000 Tons Queen Anne is "mid-sized" when you compare the average of the new builds delivered/on order for 2024-2027 is close to 170,000 tons.  

 

** As Princess, NCL, and Celebrity shed their "mid-sized ships" fans of the ~80,000 - 100,000 tons ships will be looking for a new homes they can only find mega ships within their favorite line.

 

I predict we will see HAL order a new ship in the coming year based on the Queen Anne stretching of the Pinnacle class (after all, how long can the go without a ship named Amsterdam?). It will allow HAL to retire one of the R class within a year or two and perhaps hold one for world cruises even after the next ship is delivered.  HAL doesn't Zuiderdam just wrapped up world cruise, so the lessons learned from a Vista class world cruise are documented.  

 

Thoughts out there??

 

Six of you will write to build ships like Prinsendam, but that's just counter-financially sound for HAL/Carnival Corp. Today that's Seabourn's territory.  Yes, it is about money in the end. 

 

 

Hi, CNSJ,

Once again, a thoughtful discussion. Thanks. We were on a larger ship in October 2023 (Anthem OTS, transatlantic, 15 nights) for a transatlantic. Full ship and then some (no lines that I remember until disembarkation day which was awful).

 

I had plans to try/visit so many things but found myself doing what I really enjoy from prior cruises. Never saw/visited bumper cars, Flow Rider, I-Fly, etc., to my chagrin. HAL ships are more my style and comfort level. The entertainment was top-notch on Anthem.

 

Broadway shows are great but seen once on a cruise is enough. Never cruise less than 10 or 11 nights. HAL's Music Walk has been a favorite as I do not mind HEARING the same music. My style of music runs from Big Band Swing to 50s and 60s rock to classical to country. I cannot get enough of all of those categories.

 

Economics is what drives cruise ship sizes, but the new mega ships might not be able to get into the smaller ports. We are port-goers but not beach/pool sitters. We love to learn about the history, culture and people of a port/country. As a stockholder, I applaud the mega ships. As a cruiser, I do not. I think more Pinnacle sized ships would benefit HAL.

 

Do not get me started on casinos. 90% of Americans do not smoke, yet cruise companies cater to the 10% that do for their casinos. I think on HAL ships, there are way more nonsmokers than on a Carnival Fun Ship. I, for one, would be more willing to visit a nonsmoking casino and spend there. On our Rotterdam cruise, the smoke spilled out to the Music Walk and shops making them almost unusable for us. I am a reformed smoker!

 

Jim

[jeh10641]

On 7/11/2024 at 1:00 PM, CNSJ said:

@Sir PMP I am reserving my veto of the merger should it occur as well.  I would force myself to pack a Tuxedo in my suitcase and sail Cunard first.  @The Inside Cabin would be happy if we all did. 

Oh no! Not the tuxedo! Never again for me. Once was enough. 

Jim

[jeh10641]

On 7/11/2024 at 4:25 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

Interesting tid bit: I believe that HAL and Seabourn actually share the same office address and Princess is a block away. 

Unless something has changed recently, I believe that Princess was based in California. HAL and Seabourn are in the same Carnival Cruise Line division.

Jim