Have International Airfares Gone Through the Roof?

[dabear]

We've going to Barcelona this September and also next May. The price for premium economy seats quoted for next year were almost double from what we paid for this years flight. Business class also substantially increased. On the other hand I keep reading that airfares are falling. I don't see it. 

[megr1125]

Everyone is traveling. Supply and demand.   This year's fares really don't have much bearing on next year's.

I paid way less last year for my flights to Europe.  This year, at a slower time, the fares would have not been affordable (to me) without leveraging miles and buying more when needed.  I got about $4000 worth of Premium Economy and Business to/from Rome for maybe $700 bucks out of pocket for extra miles I needed to buy. 

[muffydawg]

After performing research I booked biz class r/t directly through the airline for our upcoming voyage waaaaaayyy back in December 2023. Bottom line the $$ per person for 2024 was approx $200 pp higher than a similar biz class ticket 11 years ago (same airline).

Edited July 11 by muffydawg

[fbgd]

Prices change all the time. You can't look at one data point and decide prices have increased way up. Similarly I pay zero attention to news stories that generalize ticket price directions.... the primary bearer to what airlines charge is supply and demand. Increases in say oil/aviation fuel (a media favourite to hone in on) may increase the airline's cost to operate a flight but on the consumer end the majority of people are price sensitive. Airlines aren't going to increase prices by 10% if as a result 30% of their custom is going to walk away, price elasticity of demand is huge factor for airlines, especially where they don't have a route monopoly. Ultimately airlines will still charge whatever the market will bear, in some cases they'll lose money on every flight.

 

I used to fly half a dozen or so times a year on the same transatlantic route often on the very same days each year so you think I'd get a gauge across the 10yrs or so I did that, however, I couldn't really tell what I was going to pay. Sure past prices given you the roughest idea of what's going on. I know if business class shows for £800 return I'm getting an amazing deal, but if it's showing £10,000 return 6 months out I can probably wait a few days and see what shakes out.

[CDNPolar]

We now consider our air to be approaching the cost of the cruise in some cruise itineraries that we are booking.  We do a lot of long haul flights and these are just expensive now for sure.  Especially Asia.

[fbgd]

On 7/13/2024 at 6:50 AM, CDNPolar said:

We now consider our air to be approaching the cost of the cruise in some cruise itineraries that we are booking.  We do a lot of long haul flights and these are just expensive now for sure.  Especially Asia.

Just got to start buying more expensive cruises, problem solved.

[CDNPolar]

9 hours ago, fbgd said:

Just got to start buying more expensive cruises, problem solved.

 

Hahaha... Yes, I will suggest that to the other half.  He would not care however because I do all the budgeting and he just goes along for the ride.

[Zach1213]

On 7/14/2024 at 7:52 PM, fbgd said:

Just got to start buying more expensive cruises, problem solved.

 

[neeuqdrazil]

On 7/13/2024 at 6:50 AM, CDNPolar said:

We now consider our air to be approaching the cost of the cruise in some cruise itineraries that we are booking.  We do a lot of long haul flights and these are just expensive now for sure.  Especially Asia.

 

I'm paying almost as much (about $300 CAD difference) for my flights for my next Transatlantic (Toronto-FLL, then UK-Toronto) as I am for a balcony cabin on a 2-week cruise. And if I wasn't getting the airfare through the cruise line, I'd be paying almost 50% more. 

[Zach1213]

22 hours ago, neeuqdrazil said:

 

I'm paying almost as much (about $300 CAD difference) for my flights for my next Transatlantic (Toronto-FLL, then UK-Toronto) as I am for a balcony cabin on a 2-week cruise. 

 

While that does sound a bit extreme, keep in mind that there is zero correlation between cruise fares and airfares. They run on entirely different sets of economics and cost structures. 

[neeuqdrazil]

34 minutes ago, Zach1213 said:

 

While that does sound a bit extreme, keep in mind that there is zero correlation between cruise fares and airfares. They run on entirely different sets of economics and cost structures. 

 

Oh, I'm aware, but living somewhere where I effectively have to fly to cruise, airfare is a big part of my cruising budget. 

[FlyerTalker]

1 hour ago, neeuqdrazil said:

Oh, I'm aware, but living somewhere where I effectively have to fly to cruise, airfare is a big part of my cruising budget. 

 

More accurately, it's a big part of your TRAVEL budget.  Whether it be for a cruise, or hotels or whatever, each component is a factor of our choices.

 

If I choose to vacation in Thailand, my hotel and meal expenses can be relatively low, while air is a bigger component.  If I choose to go to a major USA city, the reverse will be true.  And my choice of Motel 6 or the Ritz Carlton also affects that ratio.

 

There are plenty of "good" air travel prices out there.  Folks just have to be flexible and creative.

 

 

[mlh0500]

I had the same question regarding airfares. I have never booked air a year ahead of time but started looking at fares for May 2025 (ATL-AMS).  For those of you that travel frequently internationally, generally speaking, are airfares higher this far out and may drop ? I understand the supply/demand and that prices will be higher as the time nears but the fares seem to be extremely high right now.  For instance, if I compare the same route for July 2024 vs May 2025 it is almost double,  Any feedback is appreciated. Thanks !

[Globaliser]

25 minutes ago, mlh0500 said:

For those of you that travel frequently internationally, generally speaking, are airfares higher this far out and may drop ?

 

I suspect that all of us who frequently travel internationally will tell you that, generally speaking, there is no such thing as "generally speaking" for timing the purchase of air fares. You've already identified the only possible generalisation - and even that is only a generalisation because sometimes the very cheapest fares for a particular trip are available only a matter of days before travel.

 

But I don't know what prices you are seeing or for what routings. Just at random, using ITA Matrix, for a one-week round-trip for one passenger departing ATL tomorrow (30 July) to AMS, I see fares starting from $1,255 (one-stop) or $2,504 (non-stop). For a 6 August departure, these are $1,125 and $1,179. For a departure on 14 May, the corresponding prices are $572 and $1,514. So I'm not sure what is "almost double" what else (ie what you're comparing to what), and I suspect that with a bit of work you could probably find some cheaper fares for May 2025 than you are already seeing, if you're prepared to be flexible about how you're getting there. Beyond that, though, explanations (and speculation about the future) would need more information and then more work.

[mlh0500]

Thank you...  do you recall which airline this was ? 

 For a departure on 14 May, the corresponding prices are $572 and $1,514. 

 

I was trying to be flexible with dates but around May 21 - June 7. The best price I found was SAS at $962. I will keep looking... as we know, prices fluctuate daily.  Thank you for your input.

[Globaliser]

The $572 price was on SAS both ways (although the source is ITA Matrix and I haven't checked the price directly with the airline).

 

Two reasons contributing to why SAS is quoting you higher fares for the dates you're looking at: the inbound date is in high season (which is worth $250 on its own), and it's a weekend (worth another $50) rather than midweek. Plus there'll be the usual other variables, like some flights having no availability in the cheaper booking classes, so the theoretical lowest fares aren't available on them.

 

However, I find it hard to believe that one can still get a price of less than $500 round-trip (half of $962) for a departure in July 2024.

[mlh0500]

Thank you !  I have been looking at SAS - they have the best fares by far.  I like the idea of their Premium Coach.  I will keep this on my radar.  Right now their flights appear empty so as I see them start to fill maybe I will go for it.  Thanks again for your valuable information.

[6rugrats]

18 hours ago, mlh0500 said:

Thank you !  I have been looking at SAS - they have the best fares by far.  I like the idea of their Premium Coach.  I will keep this on my radar.  Right now their flights appear empty so as I see them start to fill maybe I will go for it.  Thanks again for your valuable information.

How do you know the flights are empty?  The seat map is an inaccurate indicator of flight loads.

[mlh0500]

12 hours ago, 6rugrats said:

How do you know the flights are empty?  The seat map is an inaccurate indicator of flight loads.

I went through the process of purchasing a ticket to the point that it asked me to select seats. I assume every available seat is in fact available for purchase.

 

12 hours ago, 6rugrats said:

How do you know the flights are empty?  The seat map is an inaccurate indicator of flight loads.

On 7/29/2024 at 10:46 AM, Globaliser said:

 

I suspect that all of us who frequently travel internationally will tell you that, generally speaking, there is no such thing as "generally speaking" for timing the purchase of air fares. You've already identified the only possible generalisation - and even that is only a generalisation because sometimes the very cheapest fares for a particular trip are available only a matter of days before travel.

 

But I don't know what prices you are seeing or for what routings. Just at random, using ITA Matrix, for a one-week round-trip for one passenger departing ATL tomorrow (30 July) to AMS, I see fares starting from $1,255 (one-stop) or $2,504 (non-stop). For a 6 August departure, these are $1,125 and $1,179. For a departure on 14 May, the corresponding prices are $572 and $1,514. So I'm not sure what is "almost double" what else (ie what you're comparing to what), and I suspect that with a bit of work you could probably find some cheaper fares for May 2025 than you are already seeing, if you're prepared to be flexible about how you're getting there. Beyond that, though, explanations (and speculation about the future) would need more information and then more work.

 

[FlyerTalker]

26 minutes ago, mlh0500 said:

I went through the process of purchasing a ticket to the point that it asked me to select seats. I assume every available seat is in fact available for purchase.

 

And that was a faulty assumption.  Unless you have access to a tool that indicates actual airline system inventory in the various fare buckets (or at least GDS level inventory), you are just guessing.

 

 

[mlh0500]

7 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

And that was a faulty assumption.  Unless you have access to a tool that indicates actual airline system inventory in the various fare buckets (or at least GDS level inventory), you are just guessing.

 

 

Totally confused. I was on the airline's website and selecting seats as I do every time I fly.  I hve never selected seats and then be told they were already reserved.  It doesn't really matter at this point, just curious why several think when you select a seat and purchase a ticket you aren't actually selecting the seat you think you are purchasing. Odd.

[FlyerTalker]

Airline tickets are not like theater or sports tickets where you are buying a specific seat for a specific event.

 

Many tickets can be sold without any assigned seats.  And seats can be blocked without a ticket assigned to that seat.  And beyond that, you are only making a request for that seat - none are guaranteed to be "yours".

 

But somehow the "seat map shows inventory" urban legend carries on -- with no factual basis.

 

 

[Globaliser]

6 hours ago, mlh0500 said:

... just curious why several think when you select a seat and purchase a ticket you aren't actually selecting the seat you think you are purchasing. Odd.

 

If you're able to select a seat, then it's usually the case that nobody else has already selected that seat, and that will then be the seat that you have selected. That means that it will be in your reservation - but (as FlyerTalker says) that selection is only ever a request, it does not form part of your contract with the airline, and the airline can change it at any time for any (or even no) reason. So far so good.

 

The difficulty comes if you try to extrapolate from a seat map to the question of how "heavily booked" the flight is. This runs into lots of difficulties. There's a difference between reservations and ticketing: So what do you count as a booking? What do you count as "fully booked"? How about reservations (both ticketed and unticketed) that have no seat requests? How about bookings on fares that don't allow seat selection at all until check-in? How about reservations that are still taken when every seat on the aircraft has already been requested? (Although this last factor obviously isn't relevant if you're looking at an empty seat map rather than a full one.)

 

Even greater difficulty comes if you try to extrapolate from a seat map to the question of what fares will do. There's a common misconception that airlines sell seats like a supermarket sells tins of baked beans: on a 100-seat aircraft, there'll be 5 tins at $1, 10 tins at $2, 20 tins at $3 and so on, and once the $1 tins have been sold, then everyone else will be paying $2 or more. But that's not how it works.

 

Every single thing about pricing is dynamic; it can change at any moment. You could find that although the airline will offer 9 seats at $1 today, if you book four seats at $1 today then tomorrow you'll find that the cheapest seat is now $5. This can happen if that sale of four seats pushes the selling profile of the flight (plotted against time during the selling cycle) above the predicted profile, so the flight is selling better than modelled. You could then find that nobody else books the flight for two weeks, and - even though the flight's status has been completely static during that time - the selling profile has now dropped below the predicted profile, and cheaper prices are once more available - perhaps even back at $1.

 

So, in short, don't think that looking at a seat map - or anything other information that's publicly available about a flight - is going to tell you anything reliable about loads or pricing. The only reliable information that comes from an airline is how much you will have to pay today to make a booking (and even that is subject to confirmation when you try to book, because your booking might still be refused). Anything else is guesswork - and you can be assured that the airline is much cleverer than you, and holds much more information about the flight than you could ever know or find out.

[FlyerTalker]

Poster @Gardyloo once wrote:

 

"Anybody who believes they can out-think the airlines' revenue/yield management computer algorithms is, in my view, delusional."

 

Wise words then, wise today.

[gorda]

Regarding airline pricing. Just booked a flight with British Airlines from LHR to BCN in November. After paying and choosing my seat I decided that maybe I should  upgrade. Low and behold clicked back into the BA website and price for the flight I had just booked less than a hour ago had increased by 20GBP. I decided that maybe I didnt need to upgrade for a 2 hour flight,  but I did notice that the seat map didnt show any more xxx on the window seats in economy from my previous visit. Guess my purchase just clicked some bells the the matrix😉