NCL Investment - Good or Bad

[Bobby Winds]

New here so HI !

Please tell me anything and everything about being a share holder of NCL stock..........current price and benefits while cruising is what I am interested in.

[ggTexasGal]

Everything you are likely to need to know are discussed here:

https://www.nclhltd.com/investors/shareholder-benefits/shareholder-benefit-faqs

[BirdTravels]

Welcome to Cruise Critic!

 

From a pure stock investment perspective, it is a poor investment. The stock is down 8% this year. 

From a benefits perspective, it has to do with how often you intend to cruise on NCL/Oceania/Regent. We cruise 4-5 times a year, so that's $400-$500 in benefits. If you are on a one-and-done cruise, you need to consider how much of that investment will to go buying the stock verses what you will get on the ship. 

[pghflyer]

Welcome to the board @Bobby Winds The NCLH shareholder benefit is a GREAT perk that I use on every trip.  You only have to show evidence of holding 100 shares (which at NCL's share price, is a lot more affordable than RCL, who has a similar program). You don't have to show a particular holding period - so if you buy on a day the market is down, you will get your trade confirmation, and then sell it back the next (or a few) day(s) later at minor profit but get an approximately 10%+ return in OBC in days. 

 

As far as valuation, this is the wrong site for that.  They are definitely down this year, which to me is a BETTER buying time.  I can share (as I am currently holding based on my opinion that it will go up) that all three analysts I follow rank this as a High/ Very High volatility stock with valuations of $23 (BOA), $30 (Morning*), and $19 (S&P).

[Bobby Winds]

Thanks everyone for the speedy responses. 

I will re-access my thoughts on this right after we take  our first cruise at the end of September. If we are going to due future cruises this pays dividends each and every time you cruise and hopefully the stock will rise AFTER I buy it.......lol

[complawyer]

it's like advising someone sitting next to you at a blackjack table, whether to stand or draw. i have a personal policy of never trying to tell anyone how to spend their money.

 

you need a minimum of 100 shares. right now that's about $1600.  if you want to hold on to the shares long term, as an investment, it's probably not such a great deal. in return, you get $100 OBC for cruises up to but not including 14 days, and $250 OBC for anything longer than that.

 

bird is 100% correct. if you're planning a 1 and done, (while $100 OBC is better than a stick in the eye),it's probably not worth the 1600 investment. 

 

we were lucky enough to purchase 100 shares when covid struck, and bought at $7.00, so anything is a bonus.

 

i have found, however, that with the drinks/dining package included with the cost of the cruise, there isnt a whole lot of other stuff I could/ would spend the $100 on. we were on a 17 night cruise this past april, and got $250 OBC. Again, i'm not sure we spent it all. By the way, there are only so many NCL commemorative t-shirts that one can buy, even at the reduced sale  price.

or a lobster tail with dinner at a $25 upcharge.

[Bobby Winds]

26 minutes ago, complawyer said:

it's like advising someone sitting next to you at a blackjack table, whether to stand or draw. i have a personal policy of never trying to tell anyone how to spend their money.

 

you need a minimum of 100 shares. right now that's about $1600.  if you want to hold on to the shares long term, as an investment, it's probably not such a great deal. in return, you get $100 OBC for cruises up to but not including 14 days, and $250 OBC for anything longer than that.

 

bird is 100% correct. if you're planning a 1 and done, (while $100 OBC is better than a stick in the eye),it's probably not worth the 1600 investment. 

 

we were lucky enough to purchase 100 shares when covid struck, and bought at $7.00, so anything is a bonus.

 

i have found, however, that with the drinks/dining package included with the cost of the cruise, there isnt a whole lot of other stuff I could/ would spend the $100 on. we were on a 17 night cruise this past april, and got $250 OBC. Again, i'm not sure we spent it all. By the way, there are only so many NCL commemorative t-shirts that one can buy, even at the reduced sale  price.

or a lobster tail with dinner at a $25 upcharge.

 

So if I have the regular drink package and buy drinks over the $15 limit can I use the OBC to pay the difference in drink prices ?

[pghflyer]

Yes and you can use it on wifi upgrades, excursions, and on specialty dining and on stuff in the store.....but yeah @complawyer has a legitimate point that depending on your cruise style and if you are already getting the free at sea stuff.....the main things I would like to use OBC on is for gratuities and CruiseNext certs, but you can't use the shareholder (non-refundable) OBC on those items. This is a decent list:

 

 

[The Traveling Man]

28 minutes ago, Bobby Winds said:

So if I have the regular drink package and buy drinks over the $15 limit can I use the OBC to pay the difference in drink prices ?

Yes, and you also can use the OBC for NCL sponsored shore excursions if you book them once you are on board the ship.  If you book them ahead of time you will need to pay for them at the time you book them.  Since you wouldn't be on board at that time, you can't use your On Board Credit.  Some popular excursions do sell out before the ship sails, but we usually have found one or two per cruise that seemed appealing enough to use up our non-refundable OBC.

[erisajd]

buy low sell high?  NCL is maxing profits right now sending ships off over capacity almost every cruise with 3/4 person in a cabin free with free at sea.  Yet, the stock has gone down 13% since April.  They must be having problems with future profits due to inflation of food and drink and port charges and everything else.  I imagine the next 18 months will be tight due to having sold cabins for 15-25% less than they need to get for them now to turn a profit.  

 

If you intend to hold for 2-5 years - and go on 2-3 cruises in that time - then being a shareholder makes sense - 

 

I've used the OBC - but - my question is how they offer it.  Technically, a 14 NIGHT cruise is a 15 DAY cruise - so if you are on a 14 night cruise you should get the $250 OBC . . . yet another problem with legal using two different terms in their business.  

[Ellis1138]

I bought 100 of the stock when it sunk to about $14 a share back in the lockdown days of 2020. It's not a good investment, really. No dividends and the chart for it looks like the Teton Range Mountains, meaning it can get volatile. 

So let's say you buy it now at 16 a share, so $1600. You would need to go on 16 7-day cruises to break it even with OBC. Or 7 14 day cruises. So the question is: Will you go on a lot of NCL cruises soon?

At this point, I don't think NCL is going bankrupt or anything, so it's possible that in 10 years the stock might return to what it was pre-pandemic. But no guarantees.

(Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, nor a licensed broker. I have a Bachelor of Fine Arts degree. My opinion on the stock is my own individual thing.)

[julig22]

37 minutes ago, erisajd said:

I've used the OBC - but - my question is how they offer it.  Technically, a 14 NIGHT cruise is a 15 DAY cruise - so if you are on a 14 night cruise you should get the $250 OBC . . . yet another problem with legal using two different terms in their business.  

What you are calling a 15 day cruise is advertised as a 14 -day cruise, so they are consistent in their terms. Now you might have a case if you happened to cross the international date line during your cruise. My 12 day transpacific cruise actually had 13 days (14 by your math). I made sure to pay my DSC ahead of time to make sure they only charged me for 12 days, wasn't sure if people onboard would be charged for that extra day LOL.

[julig22]

2 minutes ago, Ellis1138 said:

So let's say you buy it now at 16 a share, so $1600. You would need to go on 16 7-day cruises to break it even with OBC. Or 7 14 day cruises.

Not exactly. Assuming the stock stays even, you still have your $1600 when you go to sell. So break even is if you sell at the same price you bought. In the meantime, you received $1600 in tax-free dividends for 16 cruises. 7-14 day cruises would only net $700, $250 kicks in on a 15 day cruise.

I bought long before covid so in the negative with respect to purchase price - but over 2K in OBC at this point and not planning to sell anytime soon.

[vacation44]

2 hours ago, complawyer said:

 

 

you need a minimum of 100 shares. right now that's about $1600.  if you want to hold on to the shares long term, as an investment, it's probably not such a great deal. in return, you get $100 OBC for cruises up to but not including 14 days, and $250 OBC for anything longer than that.

 

 

You get $50 for cruises less than 7 nights, not $100.

[erisajd]

27 minutes ago, julig22 said:

What you are calling a 15 day cruise is advertised as a 14 -day cruise, so they are consistent in their terms. Now you might have a case if you happened to cross the international date line during your cruise. My 12 day transpacific cruise actually had 13 days (14 by your math). I made sure to pay my DSC ahead of time to make sure they only charged me for 12 days, wasn't sure if people onboard would be charged for that extra day LOL.

NCL sells cruises by the night.  Not the day.  Find me a 7 day cruise . . . Go ahead. I’ll wait. 

[julig22]

3 minutes ago, erisajd said:

NCL sells cruises by the night.  Not the day.  Find me a 7 day cruise . . . Go ahead. I’ll wait. 

Um, just go to the NCL web page. 

 

[ChiefMateJRK]

6 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

From a pure stock investment perspective, it is a poor investment. The stock is down 8% this year. 

This is not how the stock market works.  You can certainly say it "was" a poor investment.  But only the future matters.

[1025cruise]

For stock advise, you would be best discussing with your financial advisor, not an anonymous cruise board.

[PATRLR]

I own the 100 shares and have told my manager to mark it as a "hold" stock so he won't sell it on me.  It's just part of my portfolio, I don't pay it any individual attention.

I consider the $100/cruise OBC to be a $100 tax free dividend.  Seems like it's working out OK for me.  Some have pointed out that they don't have a need for the $100 OBC.  I get that.  For us though, we generally don't have a problem using the OBC.

[Arizona Sunshine]

Firstly, welcome, and secondly, I hope you have a great cruise.

 

You seem to acknowledge that you don't have a lot of experience investing in securities. Nothing wrong with that. We all started there.

 

Having said that...investing in a single stock --- of a company in a very volatile industry --- in order to reap a potential credit not connected with dividends or capital appreciation --- is about the worst place to start. 

 

I don't know the CC limits on recommendations. There are two giant mutual fund companies that are great for individual investors --- one starts with F and one starts with V. Please start there. Disciplined, long-term investing in great companies will give you enough money to cruise.

 

AS

[ChiefMateJRK]

11 minutes ago, Arizona Sunshine said:

There are two giant mutual fund companies that are great for individual investors --- one starts with F and one starts with V. Please start there.

100% agree.  Definitely start there and stop after putting all the eggs in a passively managed US total market index fund.  Except, of course, for the $$$ you need to purchase 100 shares of NCLH.  That's not an investment in equities so much as an investment in free money on all future NCL cruises.  If you cruise NCL often, you simply can't lose that bet.😎

[julig22]

4 minutes ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Except, of course, for the $$$ you need to purchase 100 shares of NCLH.  That's not an investment in equities so much as an investment in free money on all future NCL cruises.  If you cruise NCL often, you simply can't lose that bet.😎

I look at it more like a membership card where you get a discount on every purchase. But at the end of the membership, they buy back that membership card at the going rate.

[Bobby Winds]

Thanks everyone for responding. 

 

Actually have a quite a lot of experience in the stock market/ mutual fund market/ bonds and CD's but I wanted more down to earth experience from you cruise pros on how well this gig is working out.

 

If we like our September cruise and expect to do more, many more in the future buying 100 shares is a no brainer IMHO.

 

Thanks Again,

Bob

 

[schmoopie17]

Several months ago I bought 100 shares at $12.89. I bought it because we mainly cruise NCL and because it would be relatively cheap entertainment watching the stock every day. Didn't buy it to make a ton of money...we have enough other regular investments for that purpose.

 

Today it closed at $16.14. 

 

We have totaled $450 in OBC since buying it. Combined with the $325 I would have made if I had sold it today, I'd say that's not bad for something that I bought for entertainment purposes.

[ChiefMateJRK]

9 minutes ago, schmoopie17 said:

We have totaled $450 in OBC since buying it. Combined with the $325 I would have made if I had sold it today, I'd say that's not bad for something that I bought for entertainment purposes.

Yep.  You made me look (I rarely do).  I paid $1632 in Dec 2022 and today it's worth $1614.  That's a whopping $18 loss!!! (don't worry, I can afford it 🤣).