Getting an idea of what "regular" pricing is, by looking now, is a good idea, but yes, unless they are really having problems selling the award seats, they will be at full price or higher this close to current flight dates.
I don't know AA's procedures, but I know UA's mileage rates seem to move around a lot in the first 20 or so days after releasing the seats. So, in your case, if you are going to fly, for example, June 25th of next year, start looking at the rates on say, for May 25th, and watch what the rates do for that day for a couple of weeks after release to get an idea how they might vary. I know for a flight I was trying to book, I found that 10-12 days after release seemed to be the "magic window". It may be different on AA.
Another tactic to help on this front... if AA has a "see the whole month" feature, (called "I am flexible" or "flexible dates" on United) where you can see the mileage rate for an entire month, you might find every Tuesday (an example) has cheaper rates. Or connecting on a different partner might be cheaper rates. So, flying in a day or two earlier might save you a bunch.