Deployment 2017/18 - first guesses and implications

[SherriZ366]

She may have a totally different feel once she leaves Canaveral

She will be doing a 6 day western/8 day eastern itinerary out of Ft. Lauderdale so it will still be Caribbean. I wonder how much of her staff will stay on FR -- the ship has a good reputation among the crew. We have 2 cruises on her before she leaves Port C and Rahul may still be in the CL so I can find out how it is going from him. Anyway, DH may be totally against a European cruise.

[John&LaLa]

She will be doing a 6 day western/8 day eastern itinerary out of Ft. Lauderdale so it will still be Caribbean. I wonder how much of her staff will stay on FR -- the ship has a good reputation among the crew. We have 2 cruises on her before she leaves Port C and Rahul may still be in the CL so I can find out how it is going from him. Anyway, DH may be totally against a European cruise.

 

I heard Rahul leaves in February. I think I was referring to your question on could you get husband to do Europe. Go for the TA, only one flight

[SherriZ366]

I heard Rahul leaves in February. I think I was referring to your question on could you get husband to do Europe. Go for the TA, only one flight

TA sounds like a great idea -- he might do it. We could drive to Ft. Lauderdale.

 

Rahul told me he is scheduled for vacation after the Jan. 10, 2016 cruise (which we are sailing on) -- his last vacation was shorter than normal -- 6 weeks I think.

[MADflyer]

Hi MADflyer,

 

 

But for me it is an improvement to have Freedom out of Barcelona, instead of Harmony.

 

BTW: Indy is listed in Olden, Norway, in July 2017. [emoji5]️

 

I am looking forward to having Freedom class back in Barcelona as well.

 

As far as economics, I am just looking at the 2 sold out Allure TA sailings and the fact that RCI was able to get very high average daily fares on that short Barcelona season for Oasis. Liberty was still in Barcelona as well at that time.

 

I then am using my personal past knowledge where I sailed at the lowest rates ever offered on Oasis out of PE the year before they removed one ship with the Oasis mini-season.

 

RCI can get almost 2.5 times the fare out of Barcelona per day than they get out of PE.

 

MSC also have a new ship premiering out of Barcelona at that time.

 

That said, it is pure speculation based only on the timing and length of time Allure is missing from St. Maarten.

[MADflyer]

I just thought I'd put this out here for discussion... I'm really hoping for some more interesting European itineraries for 2017, I'd also love to see some one-ways, like Celebrity has.

Madflyer, any hints for some more interesting Europe itineraries?

 

As there are so few ports that show anything yet for 2017 it is difficult to see.

 

Riviera ports have been pretty reliable the past 3 seasons for predicting Europe.

 

It is interesting that they have not booked the 12 night sailings yet and I am hopeful that indicates they are looking at some new exciting itineraries.

 

I am unsure, but it seems that Celebrity has booked one less ship to the MED for 2017. It seems they have almost finished their deployment and they usually release in November/December. The same department is booking RCI and Azamara.

 

All the RCI bookings for Indy, Navigator and Freedom found have been booked just this past week.

[OfTheSeasCruiser]

 

It is interesting that they have not booked the 12 night sailings yet and I am hopeful that indicates they are looking at some new exciting itineraries.

 

I'm also hopeful that it might mean some more exciting itineraries. Why else wouldn't they have booked Brilliance (or whatever ship) at Villefranche yet? Crossing my fingers...

[John&LaLa]

I am looking forward to having Freedom class back in Barcelona as well.

 

As far as economics, I am just looking at the 2 sold out Allure TA sailings and the fact that RCI was able to get very high average daily fares on that short Barcelona season for Oasis. Liberty was still in Barcelona as well at that time.

 

I then am using my personal past knowledge where I sailed at the lowest rates ever offered on Oasis out of PE the year before they removed one ship with the Oasis mini-season.

 

RCI can get almost 2.5 times the fare out of Barcelona per day than they get out of PE.

 

MSC also have a new ship premiering out of Barcelona at that time.

 

That said, it is pure speculation based only on the timing and length of time Allure is missing from St. Maarten.

 

2.5 WOW. How do you come up with that

[Biker19]

2.5 WOW. How do you come up with that

 

I'm dubious too - might be true for a few cabin categories (and if you compare different seasons) but doubt it for the whole ship (and in the same season). There's just way too much competition for RCI to command that kind of premium.

Edited September 25, 2015 by Biker19

[MADflyer]

2.5 WOW. How do you come up with that

 

Remember that I am only referring to the month of September when Allure might exit for the mini-season and not the year-round market.

 

If you 'fish' around to the pricing history website and then look at the month of September under 'stats' and 'past prices' you see the fare differential fairly clearly by ship and sailing.

 

I also have all the Tuesday sale sheets saved for the past 3+ years and use those to see which markets have price activity the most closer in.

 

2.5 might be a little ambitious using only cruise fare if you add in October, but at least 1.8 might be a little more accurate. I was specifically referring to a ship in September month.

 

It would be fairly easy for the owner of that website to produce an actual scientific study of pricing. Someone else with ' a lot' of time could plug in the data and get a pretty good idea.

Edited September 25, 2015 by MADflyer

[MADflyer]

I'm dubious too - might be true for a few cabin categories (and if you compare different seasons) but doubt it for the whole ship (and in the same season). There's just way too much competition for RCI to command that kind of premium.

 

The speculated mini-season was from late August to early November and comparing Barcelona 5/7 day sailings with standard Eastern/Western Caribbean on Oasis class. If you add in Freedom class the differential is even greater in September, which is the single month I focused on.

 

The global incentive market is huge out of Barcelona now and those premium group prices are not reflected in public pricing. These incentive groups also spend huge amounts in onboard revenue compared to independent travelers.

[dutchclogs]

The speculated mini-season was from late August to early November and comparing Barcelona 5/7 day sailings with standard Eastern/Western Caribbean on Oasis class. If you add in Freedom class the differential is even greater in September, which is the single month I focused on.

 

The global incentive market is huge out of Barcelona now and those premium group prices are not reflected in public pricing. These incentive groups also spend huge amounts in onboard revenue compared to independent travelers.

 

 

Could you explain please? What is an incentive group and how do they bring in more revenue? There's no doubt that Med cruises do seem to be significantly more expensive than Caribbean cruises...

[MADflyer]

Could you explain please? What is an incentive group and how do they bring in more revenue? There's no doubt that Med cruises do seem to be significantly more expensive than Caribbean cruises...

 

Companies reward their employees or agents with an incentive cruise. They tend to include shore excursions, drink packages and some specialty dining for those in the group. As these are sometimes very high producing agents for the company they tend to even book some of them in suites. As they book far in advance, they tend to book at full group fare. As those invited on the sailing have not paid themselves they tend to splurge in other areas and even the retail outlets can benefit from higher revenue with these groups onboard.

 

As these groups are such high revenue they can drive up the fares for individual travelers until closer in to the actual sailing date.

[John&LaLa]

Companies reward their employees or agents with an incentive cruise. They tend to include shore excursions, drink packages and some specialty dining for those in the group. As these are sometimes very high producing agents for the company they tend to even book some of them in suites. As they book far in advance, they tend to book at full group fare. As those invited on the sailing have not paid themselves they tend to splurge in other areas and even the retail outlets can benefit from higher revenue with these groups onboard.

 

As these groups are such high revenue they can drive up the fares for individual travelers until closer in to the actual sailing date.

 

Don't they do that in the states as well?

[Mines]

 

No sign of where Rhapsody heads following Rome or other Europe deployment.

 

They are probably waiting to see how the 2015/16 season in Brazil goes before deciding. Brazil has been dropped by RCL for 2016/17 due to the worsening economic situation and devaluation of the currency, but they will surely be back once there is a sign of recovery. The "round the horn" and Carnival cruises are highly successful.

[MADflyer]

Don't they do that in the states as well?

 

Sure, but it is a little different to be offered an incentive trip to Nassau or Cozumel than to be offered a short MED cruise with a stop on the French Riviera and a transfer to Florence from La Spezia.

 

Barcelona is Europe's leading incentive destination and number 3 in the world. If cruises sailed from Las Vegas, the incentive market would be greater.

 

This is one area where the base at Miami will outperform Port Everglades, for instance. Even though they are just miles apart, they have very different global images.

 

Miami is the world's leading 'lifestyle' destination.

[John&LaLa]

Sure, but it is a little different to be offered an incentive trip to Nassau or Cozumel than to be offered a short MED cruise with a stop on the French Riviera and a transfer to Florence from La Spezia.

 

Barcelona is Europe's leading incentive destination and number 3 in the world. If cruises sailed from Las Vegas, the incentive market would be greater.

 

This is one area where the base at Miami will outperform Port Everglades, for instance. Even though they are just miles apart, they have very different global images.

 

Miami is the world's leading 'lifestyle' destination.

 

Buddy of mine is an insurance agent and gets a trip on HAL every year. Full 7 days I think

[MADflyer]

Buddy of mine is an insurance agent and gets a trip on HAL every year. Full 7 days I think

 

Both HAL and Princess from Carnival Corp are very big in the incentive market.

 

I actually met one of the worlds leading incentive brokers onboard Oasis first being 'entertained' by RCI execs at Giovanni's on boarding day at the table next to me and then later sitting next to me at the Chef's table.

 

She had a 'huge' preference for Princess and was not shy about sharing why with me. It was interesting, but clear that she had a major bias in her analysis.

[shipfriend_max]

I think the fact that Brilliance or any other possible candidate for the 12 nighters from Barcelona is not listed at Villefranche is, that RCCL has not communicated that they'd like to deploy a ship on that itinerary, or the list is just not updated enough, and Brilliance gets added by the next update. [emoji5]️

[shipfriend_max]

They are probably waiting to see how the 2015/16 season in Brazil goes before deciding. Brazil has been dropped by RCL for 2016/17 due to the worsening economic situation and devaluation of the currency, but they will surely be back once there is a sign of recovery. The "round the horn" and Carnival cruises are highly successful.

 

 

Or RCCL decides to let Celebrity operate on those itineraries. Same on the cruises through Panama Canal.

[MADflyer]

Or RCCL decides to let Celebrity operate on those itineraries. Same on the cruises through Panama Canal.

 

It is interesting that while they did leave one Celebrity ship in the region, they appear to have also pulled Pullmantur cruises from Brazil.

 

Lisa Lutoff-Perlo's comments back in March on difficulties with the ports in the region were never expanded upon.

 

http://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/news-headlines/north-american-upswing-south-america-a-challenge.html?nspPage=1

[OfTheSeasCruiser]

I think the fact that Brilliance or any other possible candidate for the 12 nighters from Barcelona is not listed at Villefranche is, that RCCL has not communicated that they'd like to deploy a ship on that itinerary, or the list is just not updated enough, and Brilliance gets added by the next update. [emoji5]️

 

Yeah, that might be the reason. But my point is...They've already scheduled their 7 night Barcelona ship there and the occasional stops by ships sailing from Southampton. But why haven't they booked Brilliance (or another ship) for the 12 nighters? If they knew the ship would be calling there every week or so, wouldn't they want to get that scheduled? It might mean that they're planning on adding some more interesting itineraries.

[MADflyer]

I'm also hopeful that it might mean some more exciting itineraries. Why else wouldn't they have booked Brilliance (or whatever ship) at Villefranche yet? Crossing my fingers...

 

Brilliance has now been booked at Villafranche for the standard 12 night sailings.

 

The ship seems to do the TA a couple of weeks later in 2017.

 

Jewel has also been booked for a stop at Villafranche as part of her TA sailing, most likely en-route back to San Juan. It is unclear whether she will be home ported in Venice or Rome.

 

No surprises yet.

[MADflyer]

In the conference call with investors RCL confirmed that all three Oasis Class ships will remain in Florida year round following the inaugural sailings in Europe of Harmony.

 

Empress of the Seas has been confirmed to be joining the RCI fleet again from Q2 2016.

 

There was no mention of Cuba in the projections for 2016 or 2017 in the projections. This is, of course, subject to change.

 

It was stated that only the Caribbean would see growth to 43.6% of inventory and that Asia would see growth due to Ovation.

 

Europe would remain 'about the same' with 21.3 % of deployment, but yields were much higher than any other region.

 

It was noted that Asia and Australia will see price competition due to 'overcapacity' in the region and they would have to find a balance with deployment.

[Clarea]

... It was noted that Asia and Australia will see price competition due to 'overcapacity' in the region and they would have to find a balance with deployment.

I like this, maybe the US gets a Voyager class ship back.:)

[MADflyer]

I like this, maybe the US gets a Voyager class ship back.:)

 

I had thought they might do something with Explorer following the Alaska season, but it looks like that might not happen until 2018 now.