5 minute test = Carnival's way back to safe operation?

[dbrucern]

I hate to tell you but the five minute tests are are not accurate as many of us that work with COVID patients now know

[jetsfan58]

Team I pray that you guys are having a great week. Let's pray for our brothers/sisters that were/are in the path of Hurricane Laura. 

 

In my opinion rushing for a "cure" is not the correct way to approach this outbreak. All effective medications have taken valuable time to get them right. Please let's not play with human lives by "hastily" getting us to a false sense of security.     

 

My big concern is what if a person/family has saved all year for their cruise (I would speculate that there are Carnival Cruisers that fit the "save" mode), you are celebrating a very special occasion, you have either spent additional money traveling to the Carnival ports (flights, driving, UBER), spent monies on food, gas and lodging prior to your departure and you are now ready, set, let's sail. All of a sudden the uncertain and not proven efficacy of this "5 minute" testing shows a positive result for you and/or a family member. That individual is therefore immediately denied boarding. I certainly pray that this episode doesn't happen because this could mean very bad "publicity" for Carnival and the entire Industry and the "potential" law suits could be monumental? 

 

These are additional elements that "constitute" a total re-planning of your re-emerging strategy.      

[Elbozi]

13 minutes ago, jetsfan58 said:

 

My big concern is what if a person/family has saved all year for their cruise (I would speculate that there are Carnival

 

I think the European model works around this with the Covid Insurance for $18 per passenger.   They should just build it in to the price.   But if you have the insurance,  this takes care of your lost fares and expenses.      Nothing is perfect, and it looks like some of you will never sail again.  

[jetsfan58]

9 minutes ago, Elbozi said:

 

I think the European model works around this with the Covid Insurance for $18 per passenger.   They should just build it in to the price.   But if you have the insurance,  this takes care of your lost fares and expenses.      Nothing is perfect, and it looks like some of you will never sail again.  

I certainly get the protective insurance coverage addition. Again another "added" expense. What if a family child tests positive; does the entire family not board? What if a father or mother tests positive; do the remaining family members go ahead and cruise? The insurance is good but it does not take away "the initial sting" of being denied and then having to choose who continues? 

 

Another real added discussion dimension to this "re-entry rhetoric" for the Industry.   

[ober134]

As a career laboratory professional and an avid cruiser, I find this idea both interesting and concerning. This post was started at the onset of covid, and sadly we really aren't in a much better situation. The rapid Ag tests are problematic. All states have different regs for quality control and calibration documentation. Not to mention qualified people to collect and run these tests. It would just take too long to have a ship full of passengers tested without multiple techs running multiple machines. I really really need a cruise. I hope they can figure out a way to make it happen sooner than later, as long as we can sail safely. Here's to 2021 being better.

[ProgRockCruiser]

22 minutes ago, jetsfan58 said:

What if a family child tests positive; does the entire family not board? What if a father or mother tests positive; do the remaining family members go ahead and cruise?

I would expect everyone in the immediate traveling party of the positive-testing passenger will get denied boarding, as they have been in close contact and are therefore high-probability future cases.

[broberts]

Given an instant 100% accurate test the usefulness in cruising would be marginal at best. Even testing every day, statistically an infectious person will have spent 12  hours in relatively close contact with numerous others aboard

 

As much as I hate the conclusion it seems to me that cruising is not likely to resume unless and until an effective vaccine has wide spread distribution. An occurrence that is at least a year or two away.

Edited August 27, 2020 by broberts

[jetsfan58]

6 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

I would expect everyone in the immediate traveling party of the positive-testing passenger will get denied boarding, as they have been in close contact and are therefore high-probability future cases.

If one person tests positive and the others don't there is no way Carnival can justify that action. I am not an attorney but I am certain that people have one on "speed dial".    

[crewsweeper]

1 minute ago, broberts said:

Given an instant 100% accurate test the usefulness in cruising is marginal at best. Even testing every day, statistically an infectious person will have spent 12  hours in relatively close contact with numerous others aboard

 

As much as I hate the conclusion it seems to me that cruising is not likely to resume unless and until an effective vaccine has wide spread distribution. An occurrence that is at least a year or two away.

Agree that vaccines will be needed but vaccines are not 100% effective for these kind of viruses.  And there's a worse exposure time gap if current types of testing are used.  Vaccines, quick tests, masks, social distancing will all need to be used to reduce the risk of contagion if any passenger gets infected.

[sanger727]

30 minutes ago, jetsfan58 said:

If one person tests positive and the others don't there is no way Carnival can justify that action. I am not an attorney but I am certain that people have one on "speed dial".    

 

Absolutely the entire traveling party will be denied boarding if one person tests positive. MSC had a couple positive tests on their last cruise and they denied boarding to everyone who rode in the shared van to the port with them for being "close contacts"... which was the correct thing to do. If you are a close contact to someone with a positive test you are immediately quarantined for 14 days. You will not board a cruise ship. You will also not board a flight home. The entire party will get a one way drive to a hotel to sit in a room for 2 weeks. They have no choice, they can't allow someone potentially infected to board. 

[jetsfan58]

3 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

 

Absolutely the entire traveling party will be denied boarding if one person tests positive. MSC had a couple positive tests on their last cruise and they denied boarding to everyone who rode in the shared van to the port with them for being "close contacts"... which was the correct thing to do. If you are a close contact to someone with a positive test you are immediately quarantined for 14 days. You will not board a cruise ship. You will also not board a flight home. The entire party will get a one way drive to a hotel to sit in a room for 2 weeks. They have no choice, they can't allow someone potentially infected to board. 

My issue is that there are always two sides to every episode. The individuals that don't test positive may not "ever" develop the condition. There are still way too many "unknowns" to accurately predict the metamorphosis of this outbreak. This is why we as a World and Country really need to "value the professionalism" of our trained and knowledgeable field experts.

 

I am all for human safety and safe cruising. We all want to get back ASAP. In the interim we have to look at all sides of the equation; not just Carnival's Corporate but also their Paying Passengers. Great discussion.        

[sanger727]

1 minute ago, jetsfan58 said:

My issue is that there are always two sides to every episode. The individuals that don't test positive may not "ever" develop the condition. There are still way too many "unknowns" to accurately predict the metamorphosis of this outbreak. This is why we as a World and Country really need to "value the professionalism" of our trained and knowledgeable field experts.

 

I am all for human safety and safe cruising. We all want to get back ASAP. In the interim we have to look at all sides of the equation; not just Carnival's Corporate but also their Paying Passengers. Great discussion.        

 

I'm confused. Yes, you should look at the side of the paying passengers if you want to be one and be aware of the risks of them using testing to restart. But as far as them denying boarding to the entire traveling party - there are no two sides. This WILL happen. It has already happened. It doesn't matter that the other individuals may not have actually caught it. If one of your family member tests positive for COVID tomorrow, (assuming you live the US), you WILL get a call from your health department telling you that you are NOT allowed to leave your house for two weeks. That is how COVID is being handled. 

 

I have no interest in cruising under these conditions. Some do and are. Which is fine. But you need to be aware of what a positive test means before you book any cruise in the forseeable future. 

[Cushing985]

On 3/28/2020 at 1:10 PM, Elbozi said:

They are ramping up production of this nifty little device,  which gives a COVID19 test result in 5 minutes.      This is physically similar as the hundreds of thousands of units already in Urgent Cares, Doctors offices,etc, that give a Flu test result in 5 minutes.  

 

I can see a process where, at each port, everyone has to pass through this screening process to board.    Would probably need it at subsequent ports as well.    

 

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/28/21197944/coronavirus-test-fast-doctors-office-abbott-fda

 

I can see the use of this test prior to getting on the ship on Day 1 but that's really it.  It can take COVID up to 14 days to rear its ugly head so can't see much use on the standard 7 night cruise.

[jetsfan58]

3 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

 

I'm confused. Yes, you should look at the side of the paying passengers if you want to be one and be aware of the risks of them using testing to restart. But as far as them denying boarding to the entire traveling party - there are no two sides. This WILL happen. It has already happened. It doesn't matter that the other individuals may not have actually caught it. If one of your family member tests positive for COVID tomorrow, (assuming you live the US), you WILL get a call from your health department telling you that you are NOT allowed to leave your house for two weeks. That is how COVID is being handled. 

 

I have no interest in cruising under these conditions. Some do and are. Which is fine. But you need to be aware of what a positive test means before you book any cruise in the forseeable future. 

Let me try and re-frame my rhetoric. We all know that Carnival's biggest objective at the moment should be getting back to safe and profitable cruising. They also should be concerned with keeping their "existing loyal" customer base and also wooing their "potential legacy" customer base. The potential base will eventually become their legacy cruisers. If word is spreading to an already "overly paranoid" base that Carnival will disallow all parties that are directly associated with a "positive" resulting passenger, then Carnival's real chances of getting to that "potential legacy" consumer is very bleak.       

 

Carnival and the Industry will have to be very careful on how they "frame" this issue moving forward. Unfortunately "perceived" negative communication will eliminate many possibilities for future success.  

[sanger727]

49 minutes ago, jetsfan58 said:

Let me try and re-frame my rhetoric. We all know that Carnival's biggest objective at the moment should be getting back to safe and profitable cruising. They also should be concerned with keeping their "existing loyal" customer base and also wooing their "potential legacy" customer base. The potential base will eventually become their legacy cruisers. If word is spreading to an already "overly paranoid" base that Carnival will disallow all parties that are directly associated with a "positive" resulting passenger, then Carnival's real chances of getting to that "potential legacy" consumer is very bleak.       

 

Carnival and the Industry will have to be very careful on how they "frame" this issue moving forward. Unfortunately "perceived" negative communication will eliminate many possibilities for future success.  

You keep framing this like it’s optional and carnival will be worried about it’s image. It will not be optional. It doesn’t matter what carnivals image results from it. Once there is a recorded positive test, by order of the health department in the embarkation city, the positive AND their close contacts WILL BE quarantined. They will not board. This won’t be up to carnival. But frankly, I suspect the 2,000 people that do board will be much happier to know that 1 person who was positive and 5 people who were exposed were denied boarding than that 5 people potentially carrying the virus who hadn’t yet incubated it to the point that they would test positive were on the ship with them.

[ProgRockCruiser]

1 minute ago, sanger727 said:

You keep framing this like it’s optional and carnival will be worried about it’s image. It will not be optional. It doesn’t matter what carnivals image results from it. Once there is a recorded positive test, by order of the health department in the embarkation city, the positive AND their close contacts WILL BE quarantined. They will not board. This won’t be up to carnival. But frankly, I suspect the 2,000 people that do board will be much happier to know that 1 person who was positive and 5 people who were exposed were denied boarding than that 5 people potentially carrying the virus who hadn’t yet incubated it to the point that they would test positive were on the ship with them.

This.  Thank you.

[jetsfan58]

4 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

You keep framing this like it’s optional and carnival will be worried about it’s image. It will not be optional. It doesn’t matter what carnivals image results from it. Once there is a recorded positive test, by order of the health department in the embarkation city, the positive AND their close contacts WILL BE quarantined. They will not board. This won’t be up to carnival. But frankly, I suspect the 2,000 people that do board will be much happier to know that 1 person who was positive and 5 people who were exposed were denied boarding than that 5 people potentially carrying the virus who hadn’t yet incubated it to the point that they would test positive were on the ship with them.

I realize that we may never have a direct influence regarding Carnival's legal and moral obligations as the rules are eventually enacted. I am saying that if the rules are "perceived" to be extremely "stringent" as to disqualify all passengers associated with a "positive" testing passenger then shouldn't it become someone's "burden" to prove that the remaining passengers will get sick? God forbid, but I can seriously see passengers having major issues with this denying process. If they unintentionally scare away passengers then the already "severely dwindling" revenue steam will not improve but eventually dry up. Then there goes Cruising as we know it today; no real need then to worry about any quick testing or vaccines.  

 

In business you have to provide all consumers with a perceived value to gain trust and loyalty. Showing the "non positive" passengers that you disregard their "healthy" status at time of boarding is an area that I really don't think that Carnival and/or the Industry is ready to deal with right now. However they won't be able to avoid the topic forever. 

[sanger727]

12 minutes ago, jetsfan58 said:

 I am saying that if the rules are "perceived" to be extremely "stringent" as to disqualify all passengers associated with a "positive" testing passenger then shouldn't it become someone's "burden" to prove that the remaining passengers will get sick? 

No, it’s a pandemic. It’s the passengers burden to prove they are not sick. If they were in close contact with someone who is positive, they can’t prove that. 
 

The rules will be stringent. The burden is on carnival to keep the healthy passengers safe. To do that the must exclude any passenger that has a likelihood of carrying the disease. Otherwise they have to do what they are doing now and cancel all passengers.

 

uniworld started sailing Alaska a bit ago. They did not do rapid testing but their passengers did get tested upon arrival to Alaska. One passengers test came back positive a couple days into the cruise. They canceled the cruise. Returned to embarkation port. Unloaded and quarantine the entire ship. And cancelled their future sailings. This is the possibility that cannot happen. So yes, that will be incredibly strict, rightfully so.

[jetsfan58]

18 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

No, it’s a pandemic. It’s the passengers burden to prove they are not sick. If they were in close contact with someone who is positive, they can’t prove that. 
 

The rules will be stringent. The burden is on carnival to keep the healthy passengers safe. To do that the must exclude any passenger that has a likelihood of carrying the disease. Otherwise they have to do what they are doing now and cancel all passengers.

 

uniworld started sailing Alaska a bit ago. They did not do rapid testing but their passengers did get tested upon arrival to Alaska. One passengers test came back positive a couple days into the cruise. They canceled the cruise. Returned to embarkation port. Unloaded and quarantine the entire ship. And cancelled their future sailings. This is the possibility that cannot happen. So yes, that will be incredibly strict, rightfully so.

Great conversation makes for great influence. I appreciate the "agree to disagree" dialogue that we are providing. If I am a paying customer (waiting sometimes up to a year or more in advance to cruise) and have been "unjustifiably" denied boarding due to someone in my immediate party testing "positive" I am not a very happy camper. In conjunction (if my historical nature is wounded and I am a somewhat deceitful and vengeful individual) my overall messaging to additional family, friends and associates is going to be "unhealthy" for Carnival and the Industry overall. Probably resulting in some lost revenue for cruises both current and future. I am going to try, at a point in the near future, to discredit Carnivals and the Industry's carte blanche status. I would also want to appeal/question Carnival's "on board" leaderships logic for allowing those passengers that test then and there "negative" to board? Again who can tell when and/or if they will fall pray to the outbreak? Could be later that day or tomorrow or whenever during the cruise? This is a real "tender" and "highly subjective"area that has to be resolved much sooner than later. 

 

I have a bunch of passion for cruising and cruising very soon. I also have passion for the paying passengers who are going to be subjected to this type of "unwarranted punishment" for testing "negative" prior to boarding. Somehow the "warm and fuzzy" feelings we get prior to our cruise adventures are growing "cold and callous".  

 

      

[ProgRockCruiser]

Just now, jetsfan58 said:

Great conversation makes for great influence. I appreciate the "agree to disagree" dialogue that we are providing. If I am a paying customer (waiting sometimes up to a year or more in advance to cruise) and have been "unjustifiably" denied boarding due to someone in my immediate party testing "positive" I am not a very happy camper. In conjunction (if my historical nature is wounded and I am a somewhat deceitful and vengeful individual) my overall messaging to additional family, friends and associates is going to be "unhealthy" for Carnival and the Industry overall. Probably resulting in some lost revenue for cruises both current and future. I am going to try, at a point in the near future, to discredit Carnivals and the Industry's carte blanche status. I would also want to appeal/question Carnival's "on board" leaderships logic for allowing those passengers that test then and there "negative" to board? Again who can tell when and/or if they will fall pray to the outbreak? Could be later that day or tomorrow or whenever during the cruise? This is a real "tender" and "highly subjective"area that has to be resolved much sooner than later. 

 

I have a bunch of passion for cruising and cruising very soon. I also have passion for the paying passengers who are going to be subjected to this type of "unwarranted punishment" for testing "negative" prior to boarding. Somehow the "warm and fuzzy" feelings we get prior to our cruise adventures are growing "cold and callous".  

 

      

I don't think you appreciate that it won't be up to Carnival to decide who gets to board.

 

It will be either a local Government edict (City, State) or CDC requirement.  If Carnival doesn't apply the rule, then they get their permission to sail yanked.

[jetsfan58]

9 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

I don't think you appreciate that it won't be up to Carnival to decide who gets to board.

 

It will be either a local Government edict (City, State) or CDC requirement.  If Carnival doesn't apply the rule, then they get their permission to sail yanked.

I can appreciate all parties directly involved. I can also hope and wish that Carnivals Executive Leadership Team has the where-with-all to "push back" and speak loudly regard their passengers loyalty when major "potential industry changing" decisions are made. I am a firm believer in the statement "It is What it Is". If Carnivals rights and permissions to cruise get challenged then they are probably doing something from their hearts and/or against the normal thinking. In the end "Doing The Right Thing" for all parties will result in a Win/Win for all of us.     

[Elbozi]

Europe is basically beta testing this for us in the real world.    Cool thing is we actually get to see the pros and cons of it in real time.    I'm sure they will tweak it as they go.    

[sanger727]

3 hours ago, jetsfan58 said:

. I would also want to appeal/question Carnival's "on board" leaderships logic for allowing those passengers that test then and there "negative" to board? Again who can tell when and/or if they will fall pray to the outbreak? Could be later that day or tomorrow or whenever during the cruise? This is a real "tender" and "highly subjective"area that has to be resolved much sooner than later. 

 

      

 

Do you understand how catastrophic it will be for Carnival to allow the family member of an infected person to board based on them having a negative test at boarding and then "fall pray to the outbreak... tomorrow or whenever during the cruise". Unless they effectively contract trace the entire cruise could be subject to immediate cancellation and quarantine. That is not speculative, that is what happened with the uniworld cruise. Do you really think that the personal power of a few disgruntled customers would match up to the bad press, bad publicity, and bad business of this occurring. I assure you; they would much rather lose you and your friends/family as cruisers than be publicly called out for allowing potentially infected cruisers to board and shutting down again. I really don't understand why you think there is even an argument to be made here.... 

[jetsfan58]

17 hours ago, sanger727 said:

 

Do you understand how catastrophic it will be for Carnival to allow the family member of an infected person to board based on them having a negative test at boarding and then "fall pray to the outbreak... tomorrow or whenever during the cruise". Unless they effectively contract trace the entire cruise could be subject to immediate cancellation and quarantine. That is not speculative, that is what happened with the uniworld cruise. Do you really think that the personal power of a few disgruntled customers would match up to the bad press, bad publicity, and bad business of this occurring. I assure you; they would much rather lose you and your friends/family as cruisers than be publicly called out for allowing potentially infected cruisers to board and shutting down again. I really don't understand why you think there is even an argument to be made here.... 

Not really an argument when dealing with human lives. It's reality that the Industry is going to have to face real soon if not already today. I have seen corporations totally "ruined" by bad press. The Industry certainly can't afford any negative press these days. If one person is allowed to board because of a "negative" screen at that moment then each "negative" individual should be granted that same privilege. It's called treating all passengers "fair and equatable" and not as "test" subjects.