Convince me.

[LHT28]

3 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Wasn’t that long ago they stopped. In the Nautica Lounge, every night they’d have the Big Band music of the 40s and 50s. Some up doing ballroom dancing. I think they started around 8:00ish and ran up to just prior to the evening show.

AHHH

 so you base everything on the 45 min prior to the show

They usually have the show band for dancing

Some like the ballroom style dancing  & that was the time  for it

But they did have other music  for the people wanting to dance

 I would hardly base the whole cruise on the  45 mins prior to the show

 

Much ado about nothing 🙄

[Paulchili]

24 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Good thing is alot more people have (or had) this disease.  We may be developing a herd immunity without even knowing about it. 

Here is the problem. We don’t know how long the herd immunity lasts.

We obviously have herd immunity to the common flu yet we all (at least the responsible people) still get our annual flu vaccine. It would seem that that would be the case for COVID even with herd immunity.

JMO

[clo]

52 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

 Right now, I would be betting on everyone developing herd immunity before getting the vaccine. 

Would herd immunity show up in a certain type of testing? I've learned here the things have changed since I was in the biz.

[jonthomas]

Yes I would also roll any FCCs into something else. But that is not the case for us, we would have to make final payment in Aug. That I will not do.

[deadzone1003]

Paul,

 

You are correct.  All I am saying is herd immunity is the path we may have to use if a vaccine cannot be developed.  Fortunately, there are so many companies trying to develop a vaccine, both inside and outside of the USA, the odds seem to increase for developing one, but the fact there has not been 1 vaccine for any coronavirus requires some real breakthrough.   There is a possibility everyone would have had the virus before a vaccine is ready for use.

[deadzone1003]

16 minutes ago, clo said:

Would herd immunity show up in a certain type of testing? I've learned here the things have changed since I was in the biz.

Hi Clo,

Well, there are these anti-bodies test to show at what stage of the disease you are at.  My son who may have caught this disease (he doesn't know if he did or if he had the flu) had a co-worker who had the Wuhan virus.  When my son was sick (this was late February), he didn't know the co-worker had the disease until he return to work.  We assume that it was highly likely that he did, but he has to take this anti-bodies test to confirm it.  The only symptom to suggest that he had the virus was extreme fatigue.  The virus hit him on a Friday and he was back to work on Tuesday or Wednesday, pretty fast recovery.  Right now, there is a long line of people who thought they had the flu or Wuhan virus symptoms that want to take that anti-body test.  He may not get it until late April or May.  Most schoolkids may have herd immunity already, but they can't test that theory because of the limited number of anti-body tests.  In Sweden, the schools were never shut down.  The kids have such a robust immune system that the virus can't suppress it very much.  The kids can easily get the virus (like a common cold), but their immune system can easily handle the disease.  The only ones in danger are the teachers and the staff, especially the older ones.  

In short, we can only determine herd immunity if we test everyone who did not officially catch the disease with this anti-body test.  If there is a great enough percentage of population who has this anti-body (don't know that percentage), the population will be considered to have herd-immunity.  

[Paulchili]

6 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Rob;

 

Wasn’t my point. We have an entire thread of people personally canceling cruises and advocating others to do likewise. Even for cruises into 2021. 
 

My point was simply that by definition, these people have already walked or been driven away. Oceania will then be forced, as a matter of survival,  to seek out cruisers that will sail. With only maybe one or two exceptions, the median age of passengers on my past cruises has been 75-80. If those folks aren’t cruising, should Oceania reasonably be expected to keep everything the same in case they decide to return in 2022, or do what’s necessary to attract those that are and will cruise?

 

Don’t misunderstand me. I believe it is highly logical for many of O’s current cruisers to hunker down. I’ve even questioned whether it was wise for some to have been sailing when they did. For some of those it will never be really safe to cruise again. Oceania will evolve to survive. When I first sailed O, they were still doing Benny Goodman and Glen Miller! The next generation jump may come faster than you expect!

Seems like you don’t have to worry:

 

• Despite multiple outbreaks of COVID-19 on cruise ships in 2020, bookings for cruises are already on the rise of 2021, according to multiple reports.
• In the past 45 days — as multiple cruise ships had serious COVID-19 outbreaks onboard — the cruise booking site *****.com saw a 40% increase in its bookings for 2021 over its 2019 bookings.
• A recent report from UBS also found that 76% of the people who had a canceled cruise in 2020 have chosen to accept credit towards a future cruise in 2021 as opposed to 24% who accepted a refund. 

 

Count me in the minority of 24%

Edited April 12, 2020 by Paulchili

[pinotlover]

Paul;

 

That’s actually great news!

 

As to herd mentality. A local school board member casually stated that school may not be able to start in August because it may not be safe for “ all “ the children to do so! I think he may now be under police protection! 😂

 

If things haven’t opened up be late May, parents will be taking their children out to be exposed! Claiming school might not restart in the Fall isn’t a starter!

[deadzone1003]

20 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Paul;

 

That’s actually great news!

 

As to herd mentality. A local school board member casually stated that school may not be able to start in August because it may not be safe for “ all “ the children to do so! I think he may now be under police protection! 😂

 

If things haven’t opened up be late May, parents will be taking their children out to be exposed! Claiming school might not restart in the Fall isn’t a starter!

By August we should have enough anti-body tests to give to the schoolkids in order to determine if they have herd immunity.   The only people in danger are the teachers and the staff plus any kid who have an auto-immune problem like diabetes.  By then, alot of teachers may have that herd immunity.  Don't know until we test.

[pingpong1]

Paul/Pinot - a very recent link on another Oceania thread quotes an article from "Motley Fool" and is saying that a majority of Carnival canceled-cruisers, who were given a choice between FCC's or cash, have decided to take the cash. Hmmm?  Regards. 

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

The only people in danger are the teachers and the staff plus any kid who have an auto-immune problem like diabetes.

Is that all? Just exactly what kind of schools do you envision without teachers and staff?

[susiesan]

Count me in to be exposed to the virus so I can get herd immunity if it meant I could resume traveling and living my life like before.  I am 65,  supposedly high risk, but I will take my chances. I am not willing to spend the rest of my life locked up shaking in fear over a virus. Driving to work and getting in a car crash is a bigger risk of dying than from covid  19. 

[DeanoNorthPerth]

Just want to make a couple of points if I may. The reason we don’t get herd immunity to the common flu and get our jabs every year is the virus mutates. Every year the vaccine is a little different.

 

And to susiesan, the idea of the lockdowns is not to prevent people getting Covid19. It’s to prevent a whole heap getting Covid 19 all at once and swamping medical systems. The result of that is makeshift hospitals set up in parks etc and medical staff at best being exhausted and at worst dying. The whole aim should be flattening the curve. People will still catch the virus (and some will die) but the aim should be to flatten the curve so hospitals and medical professionals can cope.

[clo]

47 minutes ago, susiesan said:

Count me in to be exposed to the virus so I can get herd immunity if it meant I could resume traveling and living my life like before.  I am 65,  supposedly high risk, but I will take my chances. I am not willing to spend the rest of my life locked up shaking in fear over a virus. Driving to work and getting in a car crash is a bigger risk of dying than from covid  19. 

What about plenty of traveling, JUST not on a cruise? I can see traveling in a year but not on a cruise.

[clo]

10 minutes ago, DeanoNorthPerth said:

Just want to make a couple of points if I may. The reason we don’t get herd immunity to the common flu and get our jabs every year is the virus mutates. Every year the vaccine is a little different.

 

And to susiesan, the idea of the lockdowns is not to prevent people getting Covid19. It’s to prevent a whole heap getting Covid 19 all at once and swamping medical systems. The result of that is makeshift hospitals set up in parks etc and medical staff at best being exhausted and at worst dying. The whole aim should be flattening the curve. People will still catch the virus (and some will die) but the aim should be to flatten the curve so hospitals and medical professionals can cope.

Thank you for reminding us of what is the main point.

[Paulchili]

58 minutes ago, susiesan said:

Count me in to be exposed to the virus so I can get herd immunity if it meant I could resume traveling and living my life like before.

Susiesan, I think we all would do that if we had certain guarantees - such as it will be like a bad case of a flu that we will recover from in a week or so. Unfortunately, we don’t have that guarantee. I have read about people who run marathons that died.

If you really mean what you say - “count me in to be exposed to the virus...” - that’s pretty easy to do.

Count me in to those that do not want to be exposed but wait for vaccine/meds.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Paulchili

[Paulchili]

21 minutes ago, DeanoNorthPerth said:

The reason we don’t get herd immunity to the common flu and get our jabs every year is the virus mutates. Every year the vaccine is a little different.

Presumably this can be true fro COVID as well - no?

We don’t get the strain of the flu virus vaccine just right every year yet it still works better than no vaccine.

[YoHoHo]

55 minutes ago, susiesan said:

Count me in to be exposed to the virus so I can get herd immunity if it meant I could resume traveling and living my life like before.  I am 65,  supposedly high risk, but I will take my chances. I am not willing to spend the rest of my life locked up shaking in fear over a virus. Driving to work and getting in a car crash is a bigger risk of dying than from covid  19. 

assuming immunity lasts - not a known yet, see reports of possible re-occurrence, and possible mutation as has been speculated  (again not known)  and not known of long term effects, i.e. reports of possible organ and neurological damage. And you'd isolate yourself immediately upon exposure so as to not infect others. Maybe you'll get an infected person come to your home? And if you do develop symptoms in this effort to free yourself to travel who will care for you? I would not expect a welcome spot in the hospital if this was self-inflicted. Maybe like minded volunteers who want to become exposed could care for others who self-infected. Benefit is no PPE is wasted. A few might die and so maybe have some sort of agreement.

 

Taking a risk with your life is one thing but risking others is another. Using your driving example it is like driving quickly, recklessly down the road to get to work because you want to, or driving drunk because  you choose to enjoy life and have some drinks,  or wanting to have a day at the beach because simply wanting to have a day at the beach, risks others. And perhaps those you potentially leave behind will understand and not miss you when your gone, or maybe they will say, she live and died on her terms. Just don't risk anyone else's life whether or not you agree with their choice to shake in fear, be responsible to society as a whole and try to stay safe.

 

[YoHoHo]

Think I have spent too much time on this board so out of here for a while . Going spend some time to watch some ingenious, inspiring, fun, positive  people's videos. I need a break. Maybe I'll snake the kitchen sink.

 

good luck to all

[LHT28]

12 minutes ago, YoHoHo said:

Think I have spent too much time on this board so out of here for a while . Going spend some time to watch some ingenious, inspiring, fun, positive  people's videos. I need a break. Maybe I'll snake the kitchen sink.

 

good luck to all

I think some have been in lock down too long ..me included

 

Stay home Stay safe

[Paulchili]

46 minutes ago, YoHoHo said:

Think I have spent too much time on this board so out of here for a while . Going spend some time to watch some ingenious, inspiring, fun, positive  people's videos. I need a break. Maybe I'll snake the kitchen sink.

 

good luck to all

I think you have the right idea 😀

[pinotlover]

11 hours ago, DeanoNorthPerth said:

Just want to make a couple of points if I may. The reason we don’t get herd immunity to the common flu and get our jabs every year is the virus mutates. Every year the vaccine is a little different.

 

And to susiesan, the idea of the lockdowns is not to prevent people getting Covid19. It’s to prevent a whole heap getting Covid 19 all at once and swamping medical systems. The result of that is makeshift hospitals set up in parks etc and medical staff at best being exhausted and at worst dying. The whole aim should be flattening the curve. People will still catch the virus (and some will die) but the aim should be to flatten the curve so hospitals and medical professionals can cope.

A couple of issues at hand. I believe everyone understands Deano’s point above. However, some like susiean are putting it into perspective. The US has a total population of ~360 millionish. Thus far we have 550,000 confirmed cases. Our medical officials are already talking about a 2nd wave and 3rd wave, etc, of attacks. Even at 1,000,000 per wave ( double where we now are) , that’s a lot of waves! 
 

Even our local officials are saying “ we cannot enforce social distancing and all these closures much longer”. This was in response to our Governor saying the current restrictions may need to remain in place until Christmas. What the local officials were saying is a prolonged shutdown will become unenforceable due to civil disobedience from the masses. As susiean suggests many will, in fact, start opting for herd immunity in order to get back to some semblance of life. Others will certainly continue to stay hidden in their homes. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by pinotlover

[DeanoNorthPerth]

"As susiean suggests many will, in fact, start opting for herd immunity in order to get back to some semblance of life. Others will certainly continue to stay hidden in their homes."

 

You can't really have both. Herd immunity (as indicated by the name) usually requires about 80% of the herd (or population) to  become immune through either a vaccine or contracting and recovering from the disease. As there is no vaccine currently available, that means you are going to need the vast majority of your population to get the disease and then recover. Therefore you need to expose this majority of your population (the herd) to get Covid19 and if too many "stay hidden in their homes" this is not possible.

The other really obvious problem is if this roughly 80% of your population does contract Covid19, huge numbers will require hospitalisation and your health system will collapse.

So don't go thinking herd immunity is workable until a vaccine comes along. Until then, intense social isolation and thorough hand washing at least 6 times a day are your only hope.

Edited April 13, 2020 by DeanoNorthPerth

[Rob the Cruiser]

23 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Rob;

 

Wasn’t my point. We have an entire thread of people personally canceling cruises and advocating others to do likewise. Even for cruises into 2021. 
 

My point was simply that by definition, these people have already walked or been driven away. Oceania will then be forced, as a matter of survival,  to seek out cruisers that will sail. With only maybe one or two exceptions, the median age of passengers on my past cruises has been 75-80. If those folks aren’t cruising, should Oceania reasonably be expected to keep everything the same in case they decide to return in 2022, or do what’s necessary to attract those that are and will cruise?

 

Don’t misunderstand me. I believe it is highly logical for many of O’s current cruisers to hunker down. I’ve even questioned whether it was wise for some to have been sailing when they did. For some of those it will never be really safe to cruise again. Oceania will evolve to survive. When I first sailed O, they were still doing Benny Goodman and Glen Miller! The next generation jump may come faster than you expect!

 

I understand your point. Oceania may have to take all the actions that you mentioned. At that point, they would be nothing more than a mainstream cruise line with smaller ships and great food. 

 

Health permitting, we have 20+ years of cruising left. We're not going to "hunker down". My point is if they take those actions (#1 and #2), we'll go elsewhere.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Rob the Cruiser

[pinotlover]

Deano;

 

I suppose our differences in opinion lies in your belief, like our Governor’s, that the current social distancing and mandatory closing can be maintained indefinitely. Meanwhile, local officials, that have to enforce such policies are saying “ no they can’t “. 
 

Yesterday, on Face the Nation, the President of the Minneapolis Fed Reserve Bank said the by the middle of next month or 6/1, we need to identify those with lower vulnerabilities and get them back to work. We can’t leave the economy shut down indefinitely waiting on a vaccine. 
 

Guess we’ll soon see which school of thought prevails.