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SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!


TLCOhio
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1 hour ago, alexandria said:

have said that they don't intend to sail Silversea again.

Based on what you and others have so generously shared, I this morning canceled what would have been our first SS cruise to the Galapagos a year from now. As my mother used to say "good riddance to bad rubbish." This would have been a quite expensive trip for us and we had laughed at how it would probably spoil us for anything else. Not.

 

And thanks to @brimary also.

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9 hours ago, alexandria said:
My wife and I have enjoyed cruising over the past thirty (30) years when our work schedules permitted.  (Longer for her as she regularly went with her grandparents on cruises in the seventies and early eighties).  When I retired, I looked forward to cruising often and since I have been blessed with resources that would allow me to enjoy a half-dozen or so luxury cruises each year, I sought out recommendations on a luxury cruise line to which we might become loyal clients.  Everyone we spoke to in our circle of friends who enjoyed luxury cruise travel preferred Silversea.  And when the COVID shutdown occurred and the cruise industry began to suffer, while every one of our friends who recommended Silversea chose to hold off on any new bookings, we decided to invest in a future Silversea cruise.  And we had two other sailings we intended to book either onboard or upon our return if indeed Silversea turned out to be as excellent as others had suggested.  In hindsight, our confidence in Silversea was misplaced.

 

If Silversea had offered the 125% future cruise credit as promised, we likely would have chosen to take the FCC and used it to book a mid-2021 cruise.  But Silversea likely did us a favor when the demonstrated their lack of integrity and trustworthiness, motivating us to demand a cash refund instead.  Otherwise, by accepting FCC rather than a cash refund, we would have been LOCKED IN to cruising with Silversea. 

 

So what happens if in January, Silversea announces a "resumption of sailing" but also puts into place COVID safety measures which would result in a personal decision that the cruise experience would no longer be very enjoyable.  Think masks everywhere except in stateroom.  No spa services.  Fitness center closed.  No ability to leave the ship unless on a Silversea excursion.  We just don't know because after more than six months of the cruising COVID shutdown, Silversea hasn't announced any tentative plans to resume healthy and safe cruising; Silversea didn't even convene safety experts to begin assessing how they would resume safer sailing until July, four full months after ceasing operations.

 

Even if the COVID precautions are not onerous, who is to say that Silversea doesn't implement significant cost-cutting measures.  Some may not even be noticed until you are already on board.  Perhaps subtle changes to the menu, such as NY strip steak instead of filet or ribeye.  Farm raised salmon instead of wild caught trout.  Vegetable lasagna instead of meat lasagna.  A reduced selection of beverages consisting of lower quality brands.  Fewer butlers with more suites to serve so service is not as attentive and personal.  Fewer servers in the dining venues resulting in slower service.  If the spa is open, higher prices.  Excursions...higher prices.  Fitness classes...higher prices.  Those are all things that might be implemented behind the scenes.  How would I feel about sailing on Silversea on a cruise booked for mid-2021 if the reviews from passengers on the first resumed cruises are primarily negative?  Would I still be excited about our voyage if photos of the "new" menus showed a reduction in quality and variety of dishes?  If I had accepted the FCC, my only option would be to cruise anyway even if the experience was going to be less than satisfying.  Either that or I could simply not cruise in which case the money spent on the original (now canceled) cruise would be simply wasted.

 

And since Silversea apparently has no problem refusing to honor the promises they have made in writing and shrugging off the resulting loss of some of their customers, do you think they will hesitate to make cost-cutting decisions as to matters that they haven't promised in writing?  Having seen how they have "dug in their heels" about the retroactive reduction in FCC despite the clear legal obligation they have to honor the terms of their policy in effect when booking, I personally have no confidence in the ability of Silversea to deliver a quality product when (if) they resume cruising. 

 

Two of our friends who have enjoyed Silversea cruising often over the years, and who chose not to cancel two existing bookings based upon the 125% FCC Cruise with Confidence policy, were among those affected by this issue when one of their cruises was also canceled this past week.  They apologized to us this weekend for recommending Silversea and shared their opinion that the Silversea they are now seeing does not appear to resemble in any way the Silversea they have loyally supported over the years.  They are so frustrated by what they view as a betrayal of their most loyal clients (those who were actually willing to invest in Silversea cruise bookings during the COVID crisis, rather that keeping their money on the sidelines), that they canceled their second booking and have said that they don't intend to sail Silversea again.

I so much agree with you!

 

No Silversea for me.

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22 hours ago, brimary said:

I find it interesting from your excellent and detailed report as a new Silversea client that your views are a mirror image of ours who represent the Old Brigade having completed 22 successive and enjoyable years of cruising with Silversea. The appalling service by Silversea in respect of delays in refunding is not becoming of a luxury line and we shall not be booking any future SS cruises in the foreseeable future as a result of the disrespectful approach to refunds described on this Board alone during the Pandemic.

 

Appreciate these follow-ups and excellent insights form brimary, alexandria, etc.  Very smart and savvy concerns, thoughts and comments!!  With recent tightening of restrictions in the UK and other parts of Europe, this is clearly going to take longer for any type of real return to some partial form of "normal" for international travel and the cruise lines.  

 

From the below web financial site, they had this headline: Cruise Ship Stocks Sink Despite Coronavirus Answers” with these highlights explaining yesterday's major drop in values for the three major cruise lines: “Cruise ship operators have hoped for an uptick in the economy to help them as they seek to emerge from their long period of suspended activity. Earlier this summer, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean helped to set up a group to come up with detailed health and safety protocols. In doing so, they hoped to persuade regulators like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that they could operate without causing negative implications in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.   It's clear that such protocols are an essential condition before the CDC and other regulators will allow cruise ship operators to return to full operation. What's less clear is whether those protocols will be sufficient, or whether the CDC and others will require further work to ensure passenger and crew safety.  Time is not on cruise ship operators' side  The problem that cruise companies face is that every day they're not allowed to operate at full capacity puts more financial pressure on them. Carnival last week indicated that it would have to sell more stock in order to raise capital, in part because the company has already incurred so much debt that trying to borrow would be impossible under any reasonable terms.  Limitations on travelers crossing international borders are also a problem, both for wooing passengers in the first place and for scheduling cruises that include destinations outside the home port's country.  When the stock market gets choppy, investors often have the least patience for stocks of companies that are facing considerable business challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an existential threat to cruise ship operators. It's still far from certain that the industry will be able to survive the immense losses from not having been able to operate for much of 2020. Even if it does, investors might not be happy with the outcome.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/21/stock-markets-plunge-cruise-ship-stocks-sink-covid/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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As of early afternoon today at 1:12 p, EDT, the overall stock market has been up, but Royal Caribbean has been down 0.91%.  Carnival has been down 1.6% and NCCL has been down more, dropping 3.1%.  As detailed below, there are "worries" on Wall Street as to the future values and recovery for cruise stocks and other travel-related industries.    

 

From the respected Bloomberg business news late this morning, they had this headline: “Worsening Virus Trends Are Raising Alarms for Stock Investors” with these highlights: “As the likelihood of additional federal stimulus fades, U.S. stock investors are returning their focus to the coronavirus pandemic and not liking what they see. High-frequency data that tracks economic activity shows a slowdown in the recovery from the height of the lockdowns, with Americans again cutting back on flights and going out to eat less often. Public-transit use also remains low, while jobless claims are stubbornly elevated. That’s sending investors fleeing from risk assets, with stocks on pace for their fourth weekly decline. Equities fluctuated in volatile trading Thursday as traders tried to get a handle on what lies ahead.  'The easy party of the recovery is over,' said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. 'Investors see that a lot of the easy money, big returns from the recovery are in the past and now it’s going to be a tougher slog forward for equity prices to regain any kind of momentum.' 

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/worsening-virus-trends-are-raising-alarms-for-stock-investors/ar-BB19o43Z

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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From the Wall Street Journal and its sister publication of Barron's yesterday, the financial stock pickers are seeing an improved "potential" with the three major cruise line stocks. What does it really mean as to exactly when a cruise re-opening will be happening???   Nobody knows for certain, but many on Wall Street are speculating and betting money that these dates are getting closer.  Maybe?  If and if?? 

 

Barron's had this headline: “Cruise Stocks Are Jumping on Barclays Upgrade, and Signs of Pent-Up Demand” with these highlights: “Cruise stocks were up strongly in midday trading Friday, helped by a Barclays upgrade of the three largest U.S. players.  'We believe we are nearing an inflection point' for the cruise industry, Barclays analyst Felicia Hendrix said in a note Friday upgrading the stocks to Overweight. 'While we may be early, we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive in our coverage universe. Investors who have previously written off cruise stocks should begin to revisit their models.' ”

 

Personally, I am not a stock market "gambler"!!  Will not be buying any cruise ship stocks.  BUT, it is interesting to watch and monitor.  Just having one analyst with Barclay Bank does not make that single opinion the ultimate fact and reality.

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ge-pulls-plug-on-a-shrinking-business-building-coal-power-plants-51600706184

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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From the below Wall Street Journal charts for the three major cruise lines during this past week, you can see the big, BIG jump-ups in values on Friday.  WOW!!  Up from nearly 8% to near 14% for NCLH.  BUT, how long will this upswing last?  Much depends during the coming weeks as to what the CDC does or does not do as to a re-opening for the cruise lines.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1466898839_ScreenShot2020-09-26at9_31_13AM.thumb.png.19688aec4605890384605ea477b628e4.png

 

2143518878_ScreenShot2020-09-26at9_32_22AM.thumb.png.1cde460d2ec53842b4fbd9b098943c83.png

 

1535133083_ScreenShot2020-09-26at9_33_02AM.thumb.png.37616461c24a6119cda0ef74628f8557.png

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Jim Walker (Cruise Law News) has named the elephant.. it is called Ponzi...

 

Carnival is essentially running a quasi-Ponzi scheme, he said.

"It is collecting money for new cruises, which will probably not take place, to be used to eventually refund fares which Carnival owes to it's customers for the past several months."

 

I opine that this may turn out to be one of the biggest consumer rip offs  ever….is anybody listening ?

There is a sense of despair here in Au about the state of the US and the functional IQ of many of it's constituents.. very sad times….

 

 

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12 hours ago, tgh said:

Jim Walker (Cruise Law News) has named the elephant.. it is called Ponzi...

 

Carnival is essentially running a quasi-Ponzi scheme, he said.

"It is collecting money for new cruises, which will probably not take place, to be used to eventually refund fares which Carnival owes to it's customers for the past several months."

 

I opine that this may turn out to be one of the biggest consumer rip offs  ever….is anybody listening ?

There is a sense of despair here in Au about the state of the US and the functional IQ of many of it's constituents.. very sad times….

 

 

 

I had forgotten the expression 'Ponzi scheme' but you are absolutely right in your assessment (as Is Mr Jim Walker). "It will all end in tears", as the saying goes. The Wall Street analysts are ignoring the Elephant in the Room!

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1 hour ago, philipb said:

I had forgotten the expression 'Ponzi scheme' but you are absolutely right in your assessment (as Is Mr Jim Walker). "It will all end in tears", as the saying goes. The Wall Street analysts are ignoring the Elephant in the Room!

 

Yesterday I posted on the "SS Future" thread the below news story that used "PONZI" in its headline and writing details.  In that case, it was more about TA's and certain web travel firms.  BUT, that question certainly could also be raised about how the cruise lines are now operating. 

 

From the Palm Beach Post and the USA Today news network this past week, they had this headline: “Coronavirus has exposed a secret underbelly of the travel business: Ponzi-style schemes to pay bookings” with these highlights: “Leigh Anne Belcher and her daughter  got a call to stop by the front desk about a billing question. Their travel agency, swamped with coronavirus cancellations, had abruptly closed its doors and disconnected its phone lines – and refused to pay the hotel for the room even though Belcher had paid the agency in full for the trip.  On the spot, Belcher had to come up with thousands of dollars to pay the upscale hotel, which threatened to call authorities and advised the front-gate attendants to make sure no one escaped without paying. When she and her daughter tried to head home to Lexington, Kentucky, they had to shell out more money; their flight had been canceled, and the airline wouldn’t allow them to change it since it, too, was booked by Florida’s BookIt.com.  The coronavirus has exposed a secret underbelly of the travel business. Many travel agencies operate Ponzi-style schemes in which one traveler's deposit pays for a previous traveler's tickets and accommodations, and so on. Everything ran smoothly as long as bookings continued to roll in.”

 

When we worked with our TA for cruise payments, we gave her our credit card number and she made the payment direct to the cruise lines, etc.  No payments into any TA firm's accounts. How do others handle their payments??  Buyer beware!!  Clearly how a TA or web travel firm handles these types of details can make a huge, BIG difference if you need to get into a battles to re-gain your payments.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/investigations/2020/09/24/coronavirus-travel-refund-battles-expose-deposit-shell-game/5866489002/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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As posted on another thread we have not and will not book with a TA that washes payments through their accounts and then pays the cruise line.  Probably 15+ years or more years ago there was a well known Internet based agency that went under and in the process it was revealed they had not been forwarding deposits and final payments to the cruise lines.   I had actually used the agency once and had great service with no issues but that had been with a different owner.   The new owners started skimming off the top and got caught in the Ponzi-like scheme of paying older bookings with new booking revenue until it caught up with them.   It was a pretty big stink at the time and a number of CruiseCritic participants lost money.   Today I use a TA who is fairly well known to Silversea cruisers and while I trust them I always monitor my credit card on line to make sure the deposit and payments have been made.  The charges have always been directly by Silversea not the agency.    

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51 minutes ago, RJ2002 said:

 

As far back as I can recall, all of our cruise deposits and final payments have been directly with the cruise line, not the TA.


Indeed that’s the way it should be but there have been, and maybe there still are, agencies that handle payments through their own accounts.   I’m not sure I’m correct but I think years and years ago some agencies took their commission off the top and then passed the balance to the cruise line.   To the best of my knowledge that practice has been eliminated and the cruise lines, like Silversea, pay the commissions back to the agency once they have received the full payment.   

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1 hour ago, silkismom said:

Awhile back I read somewhere that TAs were getting the commission for canceled cruises that were moved to another date, my TA says she hasn't seen any commissions.

 

My re-collections from what my TA had shared, plus in various readings, is that most cruise lines do not pay the agent until after the cruise is actually started and/or completed.  Right or wrong?  If the cruise lines paid the TA when the full payment is made, there is still a three or four month period when a booked customer might be able to cancel, etc.  

 

As I understand many TA's got hit hard in the Spring and Summer.  They did all of the work to set-up the cruises in the March to September period.  Then, they had to do a bunch of work for their clients getting things scrubbed, pushing for payments back, etc.  BUT, they got nothing, in most cases, for all of that time, effort, worry, etc.  Reactions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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53 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

 

My re-collections from what my TA had shared, plus in various readings, is that most cruise lines do not pay the agent until after the cruise is actually started and/or completed.  Right or wrong?  If the cruise lines paid the TA when the full payment is made, there is still a three or four month period when a booked customer might be able to cancel, etc.  

 

As I understand many TA's got hit hard in the Spring and Summer.  They did all of the work to set-up the cruises in the March to September period.  Then, they had to do a bunch of work for their clients getting things scrubbed, pushing for payments back, etc.  BUT, they got nothing, in most cases, for all of that time, effort, worry, etc.  Reactions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed last summer Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog at: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/


Not sure of the exact timing of the payment back to the TA but it would have to be at, very close to, or after the sailing date in case the passenger cancels.   Unfortunately a friend who was a TA and my “insider source” passed away a couple of years ago so I can’t ask her.   I do feel sorry for the agents who put in all the work leading up to the March stoppage of cruising.  I would hope the lines did something for them but maybe not.   The downstream impact of the pandemic on the cruise industry alone is staggering.   I’ve seen a few reports just for local Florida economy and the numbers are huge.  

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Although this is slightly off-topic for the Silversea board, it does pertain to cruise line finances and future plans…

 

I was a bit surprised to read that Seabourn began construction last week on a new ship, the not-yet-named sister ship of the upcoming Venture expedition ship. When they originally announced their new expedition ships, the plans were for a second ship about a year behind the first. But with the pandemic, nearly all the cruise lines have put new shipbuilding, and even major refurbishments, on hold in order to conserve cash until there is more revenue coming in. (As those of us who were booked on the Silver Wind this winter certainly found out!) So I find it surprising -- but I suppose a good sign of optimism by Seabourn and parent Carnival -- that they haven't put off the ship for an additional 6 or 12 months. The new ship isn't scheduled to enter service until late 2022, so the powers that be have to be looking at what they expect the state of cruising to be years ahead. But this certainly seems to reflect optimism (a) that there will be demand for small-ship expedition cruising and (b) that they can afford the cash outlay at a time Carnival is losing hundreds of millions of dollars per month and is selling off half a dozen older ships.

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18 minutes ago, cruiseej said:

Although this is slightly off-topic for the Silversea board, it does pertain to cruise line finances and future plans…

 

I was a bit surprised to read that Seabourn began construction last week on a new ship, the not-yet-named sister ship of the upcoming Venture expedition ship. When they originally announced their new expedition ships, the plans were for a second ship about a year behind the first. But with the pandemic, nearly all the cruise lines have put new shipbuilding, and even major refurbishments, on hold in order to conserve cash until there is more revenue coming in. (As those of us who were booked on the Silver Wind this winter certainly found out!) So I find it surprising -- but I suppose a good sign of optimism by Seabourn and parent Carnival -- that they haven't put off the ship for an additional 6 or 12 months. The new ship isn't scheduled to enter service until late 2022, so the powers that be have to be looking at what they expect the state of cruising to be years ahead. But this certainly seems to reflect optimism (a) that there will be demand for small-ship expedition cruising and (b) that they can afford the cash outlay at a time Carnival is losing hundreds of millions of dollars per month and is selling off half a dozen older ships.


I wonder if they were trapped in a contract that painted them into a corner?  It does seem strange any cruise line bleeding cash like most are would go forward right now unless they had virtually no choice.    

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2 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

I wonder if they were trapped in a contract that painted them into a corner?  It does seem strange any cruise line bleeding cash like most are would go forward right now unless they had virtually no choice.    

 

Well, that's the glass-half-empty (three-quarters? 7/8?) possibility. 😉

 

The other possibility is that they are confident enough about the future demand for expensive, luxury expedition cruising come 2023 and beyond that they think it's wise to build this ship now. And that they feel confident enough about the resumption of cruising to some extent over the next year, based on their best guesses about the science, vaccines, governments, and perhaps most importantly the rate of future bookings, that they feel financially secure enough to move ahead.

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To an extent it doesn't really matter how confidant or not cruise lines are. They must at least appear confidant of only to prevent cancellations and gain new bookings. 

 

The future of cruising is not in the hands of the cruise lines, it is dependent on global travel restrictions, customer confidence and general economic conditions. In a world where travel is likely to be curtailed for an unknown period, people are looking to staycations (yes, I hate that word too) and the global economy disappearing down the plughole I think it will take more than expressions of confidence from the cruise industry to convince the sceptical to put their vacation money into a currently non-operating industry. 

 

I think we are a long, long way from seeing anything like normal cruising even if the companies survive. 

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I agree that we're a long way from "normal". I don't expect to even start getting there until sometime next year. And there cruise lines certainly can't dictate the course of the virus, vaccine, or border openings. But that's not what the new shipbuilding is about. It's about where they think we'll be in 2023, and it's also about their solvency to finance building a new ship at this time. I'll take any positive signs I can find. 😉

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2 hours ago, Tothesunset said:

I think we are a long, long way from seeing anything like normal cruising even if the companies survive. 

 

As of today I agree, but things can change come November

 

50 minutes ago, cruiseej said:

I'll take any positive signs I can find. 😉

 

Yes me too ej.  So if its ok to indulge in a bit of dreaming, I imagine 2021 being the polar opposite of 2020.  The US rejoins the WHO, our US scientists freed of political pressure collaborate with those around the world.  This collective effort pulls all of us closer together, as we cheer those who can solve this on.  Wherever they reside.  By May we have solutions.  By June wife and I are on our long delayed European cruise!

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1 minute ago, QueSeraSera said:

Yes me too ej.  So if its ok to indulge in a bit of dreaming, I imagine 2021 being the polar opposite of 2020.  The US rejoins the WHO, our US scientists freed of political pressure collaborate with those around the world.  This collective effort pulls all of us closer together, as we cheer those who can solve this on.  Wherever they reside.  By May we have solutions.  By June wife and I are on our long delayed European cruise!

From your lips to the she-god's ear. I'd kinda separated that from this.

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26 minutes ago, QueSeraSera said:

Yes me too ej.  So if its ok to indulge in a bit of dreaming, I imagine 2021 being the polar opposite of 2020.  The US rejoins the WHO, our US scientists freed of political pressure collaborate with those around the world.  This collective effort pulls all of us closer together, as we cheer those who can solve this on.  Wherever they reside.  By May we have solutions.  By June wife and I are on our long delayed European cruise!

 

Let's hope! As I am (finally) not on call tonight, I will drink to that!

 

I'm signing off and making a G&T: Broker's Gin, Fever Tree Aromatic Tonic, a lime wedge, and maybe a cinnamon stick to complement the aromatics (Angostura bark) in the tonic. It's Monday, why not?

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On 9/28/2020 at 6:40 PM, cruiseej said:

I agree that we're a long way from "normal". I don't expect to even start getting there until sometime next year. And there cruise lines certainly can't dictate the course of the virus, vaccine, or border openings. But that's not what the new shipbuilding is about. It's about where they think we'll be in 2023, and it's also about their solvency to finance building a new ship at this time. I'll take any positive signs I can find. 😉

 

Agree strongly above with our Pennsylvania "neighbor" to the east that in many, many ways we are a long way from any form of "normal".  Maybe, if and if, there could be a few cruises starting out of Florida in November.  BUT, overall, it's going to be fairly limited in ports visited, numbers sailing, length of sailing, etc., etc., during any type of initial re-start.   

 

As to new ship building, contracts are contracts!!!  It was probably cheaper, for now, to start construction than to cancel.  Just my guess/speculation.

 

Below are the stock charts from the Wall Street Journal this morning as to the UPS and DOWNS for the three major cruise lines during the past week.  Especially for RCCL, it looks like a roller coaster ride!!!  Right?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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For the past week, below is how the Wall Street financial experts/guessers viewed and rated the three major cruise line stocks during the past week.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

1411200464_ScreenShot2020-10-03at10_25_17AM.thumb.png.d0f62ad611048fe4b3710adcb85490b1.png

 

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1114692870_ScreenShot2020-10-03at10_20_35AM.thumb.png.b42d63d819f76e95b19f7dcb57aafaf0.png

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