Facts Only Please

[time4u2go]

44 minutes ago, Heymarco said:

That’s nice, but the CDC was using numbers from October 3. 😉 The excess deaths could be from anything, there are a million variables at play. Birth rates fluctuate from year to year too. Just because a rate is higher, it can’t be automatically assumed that it’s directly caused by COVID.

Birth rates don't fluctuate by NEARLY that much from year to year.  200,000 is an extreme outlier.

[bobmacliberty]

What's the standard deviation of annual deaths?  You can't just compare something to the average without also considering the typical spread around the average.  If Covid didn't exist, would we still have 100K more deaths this year than average anyway??  I had a coworker with a PhD in statistical modeling and he used to say, "all data is flawed, some data is useful".

[time4u2go]

29 minutes ago, bobmacliberty said:

What's the standard deviation of annual deaths?  You can't just compare something to the average without also considering the typical spread around the average.  If Covid didn't exist, would we still have 100K more deaths this year than average anyway??  I had a coworker with a PhD in statistical modeling and he used to say, "all data is flawed, some data is useful".

Since 2010, the average increase from year to year was about 46k.  The highest increase was 86k.  In the first 9 months of 2020, there has been about 300k more than last year.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/11/how-many-people-died-the-year-you-were-born/111928450/

Edited October 27, 2020 by time4u2go

[yogimax]

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

These numbers apply to “patients” admitted to medical care facilities. Saying 7.6% are going to die is not true for the general population. This only applies to those sick enough to be treated in medical care facilities. 
 

Fear mongering and misleading information. 
 

M8

Did you read my comment?  I clearly stated they were from an article posted by someone else.

[Milwaukee Eight]

14 minutes ago, yogimax said:

Did you read my comment?  I clearly stated they were from an article posted by someone else.

I read it and that portion of the article was clearly misleading information. 
 

This is your comment 

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

So yes, the death rate has diminished, but would you want to wake up tomorrow knowing there was a 7.6% chance it would be you last day on earth?

This is true if you woke up in a medical care facility, sick enough to require hospitalization. It’s not the number for the general population with or without COVID19. 
 

It’s a misleading post and only a fact if you are a sick person requiring treatment in a medical facility. So many others have COVID19 without needing inpatient care and their daily wake up is NOT a 7.6% chance of death. 
 

M8

Edited October 27, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[Seville2Cabo]

58 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

Since 2010, the average increase from year to year was about 46k.  The highest increase was 86k.  In the first 9 months of 2020, there has been about 300k more than last year.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/06/11/how-many-people-died-the-year-you-were-born/111928450/

This calculation is flawed.  You have to take the deaths per hundred thousand (or other denominator)  over a number of years, determine the average deviation.  That will give you a range of expected deaths.  So the excess deaths would be a range, not a number.    

[time4u2go]

1 hour ago, Seville2Cabo said:

This calculation is flawed.  You have to take the deaths per hundred thousand (or other denominator)  over a number of years, determine the average deviation.  That will give you a range of expected deaths.  So the excess deaths would be a range, not a number.    

Nope, it's not flawed.  Over the last 10 years, the number of deaths in the US has gone up by an average of 46k each year.  In the first 9 months of 2020, the number of deaths has gone up by about 300k.  I doubt that would be within the normal expected range.

Edited October 27, 2020 by time4u2go

[Seville2Cabo]

49 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

Nope, it's not flawed.  Over the last 10 years, the number of deaths in the US has gone up by an average of 46k each year.  In the first 9 months of 2020, the number of deaths has gone up by about 300k.  I doubt that would be within the normal expected range.

If you use the last 11 years, the average increase is only 33k. Also the death rate per 100,000 is going down. I’m not saying more people have not died, just saying from a statistics point of view, your calculation is wrong. You really need to look at the long term death rate with std deviation and get an expected range. 

[stephiems]

On 10/28/2020 at 4:12 AM, Seville2Cabo said:

If you use the last 11 years, the average increase is only 33k. Also the death rate per 100,000 is going down. I’m not saying more people have not died, just saying from a statistics point of view, your calculation is wrong. You really need to look at the long term death rate with std deviation and get an expected range. 

 

Surely since we're just chatting on a cruise message board the point he is making is good enough. He isn't writing a paper to be published. The number of excess deaths this year is high enough to be obviously an outlier and considering we all know there is a pandemic, it only makes sense that it is the cause.

 

The main point being that any claim that the numbers are being over-reported is not backed up by external sources. Even if there is a case here and there of someone not dying from covid but being counted as it, there are probably just as many if not more dying from covid and not being counted as dying from covid.

 

Along with that, a possible sign that people may have died from other causes as secondary deaths due to either not being able to get proper medical care due to too many covid patients, or not seeking medical care when they should have due to fear of covid.

 

With both of those cases, if people do the right thing, wear masks, practice social distancing and have good hygiene it will improve everything for both of those groups of people as less covid cases means less people dying of covid and more confidence and ability to help people with other illnesses. Along with that, luckily doctors are now much more experienced with covid and have found better methods of treating people so less people are dying of it. We still don't know the true cost for many of the people who had it and didn't die, whether there will be long term issues.

[Milwaukee Eight]

4 hours ago, stephiems said:

Even if there is a case here and there of someone not dying from covid but being counted as it, there are probably just as many if not more dying from covid and not being counted as dying from covid.

Your theory doesn’t account for the additional money paid for CV19 cases. 20% is significant, especially in those without insurance who are paid in full if they are a CV19 case. 
 

M8

Edited October 30, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[Milwaukee Eight]

4 hours ago, stephiems said:

Along with that, a possible sign that people may have died from other causes as secondary deaths due to either not being able to get proper medical care due to too many covid patients, or not seeking medical care when they should have due to fear of covid.

Pure speculation. It’s the media that is driving the hysteria that hospitals are overrun. They said that about Florida regarding beds, ICU beds, and staff. Maybe a couple but minimum impact overall.  
 

M8

Edited October 30, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[time4u2go]

5 hours ago, stephiems said:

 

Surely since we're just chatting on a cruise message board the point he is making is good enough. He isn't writing a paper to be published. The number of excess deaths this year is high enough to be obviously an outlier and considering we all know there is a pandemic, it only makes sense that it is the cause.

 

The main point being that any claim that the numbers are being over-reported is not backed up by external sources. Even if there is a case here and there of someone not dying from covid but being counted as it, there are probably just as many if not more dying from covid and not being counted as dying from covid.

 

Along with that, a possible sign that people may have died from other causes as secondary deaths due to either not being able to get proper medical care due to too many covid patients, or not seeking medical care when they should have due to fear of covid.

 

With both of those cases, if people do the right thing, wear masks, practice social distancing and have good hygiene it will improve everything for both of those groups of people as less covid cases means less people dying of covid and more confidence and ability to help people with other illnesses. Along with that, luckily doctors are now much more experienced with covid and have found better methods of treating people so less people are dying of it. We still don't know the true cost for many of the people who had it and didn't die, whether there will be long term issues.

Excellent post. Thank you. 

[yogimax]

4 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Pure speculation. It’s the media that is driving the hysteria that hospitals are overrun. They said that about Florida regarding beds, ICU beds, and staff. Maybe a couple but minimum impact overall. 

So the evil media are a monolithic group seeking to produce hysteria among the population?

[Milwaukee Eight]

11 minutes ago, yogimax said:

So the evil media are a monolithic group seeking to produce hysteria among the population?

There is an election going on. 
 

We wear our mask and are responsible for us. The media reported 30 Florida ICU units were at capacity. 27 of those 30 had no ICU beds ever, the other 3 with less than 8 beds were full out of 500+ hospitals. If that is not media hysteria.......

 

Fear mongering  If you are vulnerable, protect yourself and be responsible for you. 

 

M8

Edited October 30, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[Oxo]

Doesn't sound promising!

Florida’s Department of Health on Friday confirmed 5,592 additional cases of COVID-19, bringing the state’s known total to 800,216. Also, 72 resident deaths were announced, bringing the resident death toll to 16,720.

Stay Safe, wear a mask properly, social distance and wash hands.

[Guest BigRoger]

This post is frankly at times unfortunately politically edged and for some reason ‘the powers that be’ allow certain leanings to edge this politically - hopefully that will end next week. (Opinion not fact).

 

facts were requested and here they are:

- the virus is new in 2020

- it is incredibly contagious

- people die from it

- there is no cure

- there is presently no vaccine

- tests are variable in accuracy and speed

- there is no ‘immunity’ identified for it

- masks help avoid contagion

- cruising is in the gift and hands of governments throughout the world
- no one knows when cruising will restart

- most cruisers remain hopeful for an early restart
 

facts ended...... 

 

 

[Oxo]

5 minutes ago, BigRoger said:

This post is frankly at times unfortunately politically edged and for some reason ‘the powers that be’ allow certain leanings to edge this politically - hopefully that will end next week. (Opinion not fact).

 

facts were requested and here they are:

- the virus is new in 2020

- it is incredibly contagious

- people die from it

- there is no cure

- there is presently no vaccine

- tests are variable in accuracy and speed

- there is no ‘immunity’ identified for it

- masks help avoid contagion

- cruising is in the gift and hands of governments throughout the world
- no one knows when cruising will restart

- most cruisers remain hopeful for an early restart
 

facts ended...... 

 

 

Excellent summary! Only the facts!

Thank you!

Stay Safe!

[time4u2go]

5 hours ago, BigRoger said:

This post is frankly at times unfortunately politically edged and for some reason ‘the powers that be’ allow certain leanings to edge this politically - hopefully that will end next week. (Opinion not fact).

 

facts were requested and here they are:

- the virus is new in 2020

- it is incredibly contagious

- people die from it

- there is no cure

- there is presently no vaccine

- tests are variable in accuracy and speed

- there is no ‘immunity’ identified for it

- masks help avoid contagion

- cruising is in the gift and hands of governments throughout the world
- no one knows when cruising will restart

- most cruisers remain hopeful for an early restart
 

facts ended...... 

 

 

Excellent post.  You've summed it up quite nicely.

[stephiems]

12 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Your theory doesn’t account for the additional money paid for CV19 cases.

 

They NEED to be paid more or else they won't be able to continue running and people will die. Do you always assume the worst in people or is it just projection? I'm sure hospitals get more for a cancer patients than they do for someone needing stitches, so what? 

 

There is no proof that hospitals are mis-reporting. The money allows for them to cover for procedures they have to stop doing plus additional medical supplies.

[toad455]

who is cruising throughout the Caribbean? What line(s) have started cruising?

[yogimax]

1 hour ago, stephiems said:

 

They NEED to be paid more or else they won't be able to continue running and people will die. Do you always assume the worst in people or is it just projection? I'm sure hospitals get more for a cancer patients than they do for someone needing stitches, so what? 

 

There is no proof that hospitals are mis-reporting. The money allows for them to cover for procedures they have to stop doing plus additional medical supplies.

Spot on!  If anything, more have died from COVID than being reported.  

[yogimax]

4 minutes ago, Heymarco said:

 

Sea dream yacht club just started out of Barbados. 

Two yachts, each with maximum capacity of 112 passengers... not much in the way of  comparison.

[Guest BigRoger]

14 hours ago, Heymarco said:

Sorry have to jump in, so many incorrect facts. 
 

1 Covid-19 was discovered in 2019, hence the name.

2. There are a few vaccines that have already been tested on large scale, just waiting for final approval (NY times)

3. Immunity comes after contracting, length of effect still being studied.

4. CDC made plan to allow for cruising to resume today.

5. Cruising has already restated, even in Carribean, just not from US or with US providers.

 

just want to make sure actual facts are going out. Cheers!

Brilliant - evidencing the incredible power of facts and ‘alternative facts’... which idiot came up with that term... I forget....

cheers......

[Oxo]

It's a shame the same effort that people spend on CC to define, analyze, defend, criticize, etc.  C19 is NOT being expended by whomever.

'MISSION COMPLETED?'

(Reuters) - The United States set a new all-time high for coronavirus cases confirmed in a single 24-hour period on Friday, reporting just over 100,000 new infections to surpass the record total of 91,000 posted a day earlier, according to a Reuters tally.

 

 

• "The suggestion that doctors—in the midst of a public health crisis—are overcounting COVID-19 patients or lying to line their pockets is a malicious, outrageous, and completely misguided charge," the AMA said in a statement.

 

[Domino D]

What makes for a good debate is when there are facts on both sides of the issue.  What makes for pointless arguing is when those facts are taken out of context and/or exaggerated.  On here or in politics.

 

Most of the comments I've seen on here are factually correct, but they don't disprove the other points being raised, and are not anywhere near strong enough to point to the conclusions being drawn.  Fact's will not always lead to a proper conclusion.  We're humans, we misinterpret things.  My life experience tells me that the majority of people (including politicians and media) are misinterpreting facts not purposefully lying.  I realize I am in a tiny minority, but I don't think anyone is lying.  Everyone involved is guilty of conformational bias. They see what they want to see, what proves their belief. 

 

I have no problem believing there is a margin of error in the numbers, that does not equal "grossly inflated".  Just like I have no problem believing that 95% of hospitals and doctors are doing their best to be accurate, does not mean no hospital has "ever knowing listed a code on a form to maximize revenue".  People are getting Covid and some do not recover, that does not mean the news isn't painting as bleak a picture as possible.  Ratings drop when the news leads off with "Hey everything is okay today, here is a story about puppies teaching babies to crawl."  

 

It's all true.  So what?  There is only one fact that matters on CC: The people who determine if cruising can resume in this country have concerns.  All the debate about numbers and "facts" is like listening to kids argue about where we should go for dinner.  It's interesting to hear what they think and eventually a little annoying.  Like this post is to others, I'm sure.  I hope that we will find our way through this soon and then we can move on to arguing face to face at the bars, restaurants, and cruise ships.