Mandatory COVID Testing

[ace2542]

20 minutes ago, D C said:

 

Right now, the CDC is acting as if one lone case on a ship is sufficient to shut down an industry. 

 

Florida is currently reporting 3000-4000 new cases per day. Any likely on board outbreak would be little more than noise in those figures. 

And the CDC always will act that way. There are plenty of cities even governments wishing cruising would never resume. Do you think every country will allow cruise ships back into their waters because they won't.

Edited October 12, 2020 by ace2542

[bouhunter]

3 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

And the CDC always will act that way. There are plenty of cities even governments wishing cruising would never resume. Do you think every country will allow cruise ships back into their waters because they won't.

Besides Key West, please enlighten us on the "plenty cities and governments" who wish cruising "would never resume".....

Edited October 12, 2020 by bouhunter

[ace2542]

24 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

Besides Key West, please enlighten us on the "plenty cities and governments" who wish cruising "would never resume".....

Venice for 1. Australia maybe for 2 after what happened though the Covid spike and deaths which it caused are the fault of the failures in the Australian system.  Even the American government. After all aren't princess and by extension carnival very close to being banned from American waters for polluting? A move which would destroy Carnival as a business.

Edited October 12, 2020 by ace2542

[bouhunter]

24 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Venice for 1. Australia maybe for 2 after what happened though the Covid spike and deaths which it caused are the fault of the failures in the Australian system.  Even the American government. After all aren't princess and by extension carnival very close to being banned from American waters for polluting? A move which would destroy Carnival as a business.

Venice yes.  Australia maybe in the short term.  That's not "plenty".......     Sure, yeah, the US is going to destroy Carnival over pollution.  Get real.  

[Domino D]

31 minutes ago, D C said:

 

Right now, the CDC is acting as if one lone case on a ship is sufficient to shut down an industry. 

 

Florida is currently reporting 3000-4000 new cases per day. Any likely on board outbreak would be little more than noise in those figures. 

 

I share your frustration that cruising is not an option right now.  I think there should be a way to cruise safely.  I'll go as far as to say that the CDC may be overly cautious.  BUT, exaggerating in the opposite direction is no better.  If the risk factor was as low as you state, you would be on a cruise ship now. 

 

Part of the problem is the attitude "An outbreak is just noise".  You are speaking of mathematic noise in the case count, I get that.  The statement also says, your not worried about it.  Problem is; How likely are you to follow guidelines if you don't think it is a problem?

 

There are 4 things keeping me off a cruise ship today:

1. Cruise Lines are not American companies so politicians don't care if they are shut down.

2. Too many people think this isn't a big deal, and fuel the concern that safety protocols won't be followed

3. Prior to the shutdown, the risk from cruise ships was a significant

I don't know if you care and don't blame you if you don't, but the numbers were a lot more than statistical noise

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

4. Currently the risk factor is too high for my personal choice.

 

None of this is the result of the CDC order.  The job of Public Health is to be cautious.  Why be mad at them for that?  Trust me the CDC would ground flights and close Disney World given half a chance.  That is their job.  Many businesses are not open because the CDC is applying different logic, it is they are to big a piece of the economy.  Unfortunately, the cruise lines are not part of the economy (I guess NCL Hawaii could be)

 

Again, I get your frustration.  I understand your point of view.  I am suggesting that you are working against your goal with statements like "Just noise".  

[Domino D]

42 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Venice for 1. Australia maybe for 2 after what happened though the Covid spike and deaths which it caused are the fault of the failures in the Australian system.  Even the American government. After all aren't princess and by extension carnival very close to being banned from American waters for polluting? A move which would destroy Carnival as a business.

 

You do realize that if Carnival were to reincorporate as a US company.  They would likely be cruising in some form right now.  Yes, it would cost them a big hit in profit margin as they would have to follow laws and regulations.  The question, for the cruse lines to avoid shut downs in America, is economical.  Is it worth a 20% (made up number) hit in profit margin to get political clout.  Again, airlines are not operating because the CDC feels there is no risk, they are operating because neither party would entertain pulling them out of the economy entirely. 

[ace2542]

21 minutes ago, Domino D said:

 

You do realize that if Carnival were to reincorporate as a US company.  They would likely be cruising in some form right now.  Yes, it would cost them a big hit in profit margin as they would have to follow laws and regulations.  The question, for the cruse lines to avoid shut downs in America, is economical.  Is it worth a 20% (made up number) hit in profit margin to get political clout.  Again, airlines are not operating because the CDC feels there is no risk, they are operating because neither party would entertain pulling them out of the economy entirely. 

I am surprised that to sail into U.S waters they haven't been forced to be incorporated in America given how much tax that might get the American government.

[Domino D]

1 hour ago, ace2542 said:

I am surprised that to sail into U.S waters they haven't been forced to be incorporated in America given how much tax that might get the American government.

 

You and me both.

 

I would not be surprised for the current Pandemic to lead to changes in how the government views and manages cruise lines.  Right or wrong, agree or disagree, I wouldn't be surprised. 

Edited October 12, 2020 by Domino D

[Ocean Boy]

2 hours ago, ace2542 said:

I am surprised that to sail into U.S waters they haven't been forced to be incorporated in America given how much tax that might get the American government.

So a company like MSC, a legitimate Italian company, shouldn't be allowed into U.S. waters?

[Domino D]

5 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

So a company like MSC, a legitimate Italian company, shouldn't be allowed into U.S. waters?

 

Yes they should be allowed in US waters. 

 

What I mean (and I think ace2542 as well) is that we are surprised given the current climate (not pandemic but political and economic) that companies that in effect run their base of operations from the US and make a significant portion of their revenue from US ports are not forced to be US controlled.  It's not something I personally believe, but I am a little surprised that no one in the government has raised the question.  There is a lot of conversation about companies incorporated in Ireland.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-tax-insight/insight-apple-controversy-lays-bare-complex-irish-tax-web-idUSBRE96C03T20130713

"That nexus, which has created over 100,000 jobs for Ireland, was laid bare when the U.S. Senate revealed that technology giant Apple had paid little or no tax on tens of billions of dollars in profits channeled through the country.   

 

Ireland, which has courted U.S. business for decades, rejects the Senate’s claims that it is a tax haven, but the case has damaged its reputation as it seeks to emerge from an EU-IMF bailout and its export-focused economy dips back into recession.

 

Company documents in Ireland and filings in the United States shows that many firms have multiple units in Ireland, where corporate income tax is 12.5 percent - about a third of the top U.S. federal income tax rate of 35 percent.

 

In many cases, several subsidiaries are registered at the offices of Dublin-based law firms."

 

Again, OB please don't take this as I agree with it personally, but if this is something congress was actively pursuing, I wouldn't be shocked if they woke up one day and said "Hey Cruise Line X sails 65% of their cruises from US ports. Gets 80% of their revenue from US Citizens, and has 75% of their corporate offices in US cities.  They need to pay US Corporate taxes."  There are times I'm surprised they haven't already asked. 

[Ocean Boy]

37 minutes ago, Domino D said:

 

Again, OB please don't take this as I agree with it personally, but if this is something congress was actively pursuing, I wouldn't be shocked if they woke up one day and said "Hey Cruise Line X sails 65% of their cruises from US ports. Gets 80% of their revenue from US Citizens, and has 75% of their corporate offices in US cities.  They need to pay US Corporate taxes."  There are times I'm surprised they haven't already asked. 

I hear you. However, the government could also take a good hard look at it self and, instead of using coercion, figure out how to make companies want to incorporate here as Ireland has done. The general outlook in the U.S. is that corporations are evil greedy tax dodgers. This perception, and the causes of it, need to change.

[Domino D]

6 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

I hear you. However, the government could also take a good hard look at it self and, instead of using coercion, figure out how to make companies want to incorporate here as Ireland has done. The general outlook in the U.S. is that corporations are evil greedy tax dodgers. This perception, and the causes of it, need to change.

 

They could.  

[crazyank]

18 hours ago, ace2542 said:

Venice for 1. Australia maybe for 2 after what happened though the Covid spike and deaths which it caused are the fault of the failures in the Australian system.  Even the American government. After all aren't princess and by extension carnival very close to being banned from American waters for polluting? A move which would destroy Carnival as a business.

Venice???  I don't know where you are getting your info.  The Venetian authorities opened their port weeks ago because they recognized the financial disaster that they were facing.  A few, actually a very few, environment groups want cruises out of Venice to stop. And even they have gone quiet for now,  money talks, and financial losses  on a massive scale talk real loud.

[D C]

22 hours ago, Domino D said:

 

I share your frustration that cruising is not an option right now.  I think there should be a way to cruise safely.  I'll go as far as to say that the CDC may be overly cautious.  BUT, exaggerating in the opposite direction is no better.  If the risk factor was as low as you state, you would be on a cruise ship now. 

 

Part of the problem is the attitude "An outbreak is just noise".  You are speaking of mathematic noise in the case count, I get that.  The statement also says, your not worried about it.  Problem is; How likely are you to follow guidelines if you don't think it is a problem?

 

There are 4 things keeping me off a cruise ship today:

1. Cruise Lines are not American companies so politicians don't care if they are shut down.

2. Too many people think this isn't a big deal, and fuel the concern that safety protocols won't be followed

3. Prior to the shutdown, the risk from cruise ships was a significant

I don't know if you care and don't blame you if you don't, but the numbers were a lot more than statistical noise

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

4. Currently the risk factor is too high for my personal choice.

 

None of this is the result of the CDC order.  The job of Public Health is to be cautious.  Why be mad at them for that?  Trust me the CDC would ground flights and close Disney World given half a chance.  That is their job.  Many businesses are not open because the CDC is applying different logic, it is they are to big a piece of the economy.  Unfortunately, the cruise lines are not part of the economy (I guess NCL Hawaii could be)

 

Again, I get your frustration.  I understand your point of view.  I am suggesting that you are working against your goal with statements like "Just noise".  

 

It appears as though you've misunderstood and thought I was proposing cruising with no restrictions whatsoever.  

The Diamond cruise ships had relatively high infection rates (but still under 20%) without controls of any kind onboard to prevent spreading.  We know of one passenger who boarded while infected, but we have no idea how many others there might have been in addition to him.  There were also over 400 asymptomatic positives.  Being early in the epidemic, we don't know how many of those might have been false positives (or conversely how many negatives were false) although it seems they did a better job of repeat-testing than we're doing now. 

 

If the Diamond Princess were to dock in Florida today under the exact same conditions, the additional 700 cases would be a slight blip (<20%) in Florida's daily case rate.  It was certainly more than statistical noise back in Feb when theere were few cases globally, but it wouldn't be today.   

 

With reasonable restrictions such as those proposed by the cruise lines, the possibility of a widespread outbreak on a ship is negligible.  The one known infected passenger on the Diamond Princess would almost certainly have been prevented from boarding with pre-cruise testing, and with an understanding of transmission (vs none at all back then) controlling spread is much better now.   

 

So we're looking at "some" cases on ships vs "a lot" of cases on ships.   The stated intent of the no sail order is (with editorial comments):

• Preserving Human Life
• Preserving the health and safety of cruise ship crew members, port personnel, and communities (with testing and protocols, the ship is arguably safer than the port and communities, especially in Florida with restaurants and bars able to open at full capacity)
• Preventing the further introduction, transmission, and spread of COVID 19 into and throughout the United States ("further introduction"? It's already everywhere with almost 50k new cases every day in the US right now)
• Preserving the public health and other critical resources of Federal, State, and local governments (rather ill-defined)
• Preserving hospital, healthcare, and emergency response resources within the United States (a valid concern if the healthcare system is at a tipping point where the repatriation of infected persons would stretch-thin these resources)
• Maintaining the safety of shipping and harbor conditions (another ill-defined connection with cruising versus the conditions present within port cities already due to COVID)

It seems to me that the ship has sailed on the intent of the original order, and it has lost a lot of relevance 6 months on.  To my previous point, the CDC No-sail Order reads as if they're unaware that COVID is already widespread within the US and they view any cases onboard a ship as sufficient to shut down the industry.  The order is mentally stuck in February/March.

 

The proposed mandatory testing (even with all of its issues), along with other reasonable restrictions/protocols outlined by the cruise industry are more than sufficient for many people to cruise (myself included).  I understand that many people won't be at that comfort level for a long time.  

[D C]

18 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

I hear you. However, the government could also take a good hard look at it self and, instead of using coercion, figure out how to make companies want to incorporate here as Ireland has done. The general outlook in the U.S. is that corporations are evil greedy tax dodgers. This perception, and the causes of it, need to change.

 

Agreed.  The government lays out the rules.  It's inappropriate to morally judge a corporation for saying "thanks, I'll play within your rules, which also means that I'll ALSO play by the rules of another country that may be more favourable overall to my financial goals".      That's akin to judging an individual for deciding to live in a state with lower taxes.  

 

The US has protectionist maritime laws that have been on the books for a very long time.  The cruise lines play according to those laws, as well as the laws regarding taxation of various jurisdictions.  Good for them.  

 

Ultimately, they're as bound by the corporate performance and satisfying the shareholders as they are bound by those laws.   Could they register the ships in the US, incorporate in the US, and play according to all of the US rules? Sure, but the shareholders would likely have something to say about it as costs rise and profits shrink. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

23 hours ago, D C said:

 

Right now, the CDC is acting as if one lone case on a ship is sufficient to shut down an industry. 

 

Florida is currently reporting 3000-4000 new cases per day. Any likely on board outbreak would be little more than noise in those figures. 

Absolutely NOT true. Today, 1,533. The 7 day average is below 3,000. There was a data error recently where no reported cases and then a day or two later, multiple days were dumped. That dump day was over 5,000. 

A much better snapshot are the amount of available ICU beds. During our peak infection, ICU beds were increased from 4K to 6K. Beds can be added as needed. Today, the number of beds are 4,300. Almost 2,000 less than our peak days. The available ICU beds are 26%. That’s about the normal number of availability prior to COVID19. 
 

M8

 

[bouhunter]

22 hours ago, Domino D said:

 

You do realize that if Carnival were to reincorporate as a US company.  They would likely be cruising in some form right now.   

Not from the US they wouldn't.  You actually believe a US based cruise line would be allowed to start cruising from the US and the others would be shut down??  Hahahaha.

[Domino D]

1 hour ago, bouhunter said:

Not from the US they wouldn't.  You actually believe a US based cruise line would be allowed to start cruising from the US and the others would be shut down??  Hahahaha.

 

I believe that if Cruise Lines were part of the US economy, they would be getting more support from the governments (Federal and State) to find a way to reopen sooner.    

 

Regarding the belief that country of corporate registry matters, you should consider what cruise lines are operating in Europe and what ones aren't.  Yes, I believe that a government would say only cruise lines incorporated in my country (or union of nations) will be allowed to operate, they have already done it. 

 

I believe that the cruise lines did not take steps to develop plans fast enough.

I believe they thought it wouldn't be an issue this long.

I believe it is just as laughable to think that if the Cruise Lines were part of the US economy the Government wouldn't ignore the CDC and overrule them.

I believe that if they were US corporations they would have been part of the bail outs.

I believe that while cruising is higher risk than other forms of transportation, but that airlines, trains, busses, all have risk factor and are all operating

I believe the decision to leave airlines open throughout lock down was economic.

 

So...

Do I believe that the only reason cruise lines aren't sailing is because they aren't US incorporated, No.

 

Do I believe that if they were US corporations the path to reopening would be easier and they might have already settled on a plan and be operating, maybe.

 

I also believe that: it is my opinion, not you or anyone else needs to agree, I have no interest in changing your mind, and in the long run everything on here is entertainment.  None of us knows, none us can, and I hope sooner than later you and I can be arguing about removing gratuities. 

[Domino D]

2 hours ago, D C said:

The proposed mandatory testing (even with all of its issues), along with other reasonable restrictions/protocols outlined by the cruise industry are more than sufficient for many people to cruise (myself included).  I understand that many people won't be at that comfort level for a long time.  

 

D C I didn't quote the whole post just to save space.  Given the second post I suppose I did misunderstand your original post.  While I don't agree with every point in the second post, I do agree with your overall message.  

I agree that there should be some way to reopen cruising.  I'm in a higher risk pool and will likely wait longer, but that doesn't mean you and other people not at high risk should have to wait.  

 

Hope we are both cruising soon.

[D C]

3 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Absolutely NOT true. Today, 1,533. The 7 day average is below 3,000. There was a data error recently where no reported cases and then a day or two later, multiple days were dumped. That dump day was over 5,000. 

A much better snapshot are the amount of available ICU beds. During our peak infection, ICU beds were increased from 4K to 6K. Beds can be added as needed. Today, the number of beds are 4,300. Almost 2,000 less than our peak days. The available ICU beds are 26%. That’s about the normal number of availability prior to COVID19. 
 

M8

 

I should have said 2000-3000 per day in Florida, sorry. 

[Roger88]

As far as I am concerned, there like 10000 testings occur in Florida a day. I think they should double this number cause the first test might be wrong. Jees man, when will it be over

[Milwaukee Eight]

23 minutes ago, D C said:

I should have said 2000-3000 per day in Florida, sorry. 

We have had numbers below 2000/1000 in the last 7 days. 
 

M8

[D C]

31 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

As far as I am concerned, there like 10000 testings occur in Florida a day. I think they should double this number cause the first test might be wrong. Jees man, when will it be over

All tests should be orthogonal (duplicated) using two different test types and/or labs.  

 

More testing for the sake of testing, especially without duplicate testing, doesn't make sense to me though. 

[bouhunter]

1 hour ago, Domino D said:

 

I hope sooner than later you and I can be arguing about removing gratuities. 

I believe I agree with you 🙂

 

[time4u2go]

42 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

We have had numbers below 2000/1000 in the last 7 days. 
 

M8

Really?