Reduced passenger numbers

[sasset]

Has the capacity cap been extended through December 31?

[jalves]

Nobody knows since the cruise lines haven't published actual capacity limits.

[DCPIV]

It's a very fluid situation. No deadlines. No published capacities. 

[Jim_Iain]

When on Equinox we were told that they would steadily be increasing capacity  through the end of the years.    I heard but not confirmed that the current sailing had gone up from about 1,000 to 1,300.

 

They also said by November the staff should be up to 95%.     They have been boarding additional staff the last two cruises as they have to be quarantined for 2 weeks after joining the ship.   They have mostly cleared deck 7 for new crew and have a table outside each room where they leave them meals.

[mayleeman]

Someone on the October 29 Equinox roll call has been updating our booked percent of capacity for a couple months. Not sure where he gets the info, but it seems to be holding relatively steady at just under 64 to 66% capacity.

[canderson]

11 hours ago, mayleeman said:

Someone on the October 29 Equinox roll call has been updating our booked percent of capacity for a couple months. Not sure where he gets the info, but it seems to be holding relatively steady at just under 64 to 66% capacity.

Unless that person works at X, the only information available is open/closed availability, and the best that can be calculated from looking at open/closed cabins is an approximate % availability, not % occupancy.  Just because a cabin shows that it is unavailable doesn't necessarily mean that it's booked with passengers, especially now, and that's what screws with the numbers.

 

I was doing something similar until a couple of issues with this approach were pointed out to me.

[Jim_Iain]

Another factor that are affecting the numbers are the number of cancellations up to the 48 hour point.  On our Equinox 9/17 they were originally booked at 1,400 and had 400 cancellations and then an additional 34 No Shows which took us down below 1,000.  

 

 

[DCPIV]

@Jim_Iain

 

Wow! 

[mk960072]

6 hours ago, canderson said:

Unless that person works at X, the only information available is open/closed availability, and the best that can be calculated from looking at open/closed cabins is an approximate % availability, not % occupancy.  Just because a cabin shows that it is unavailable doesn't necessarily mean that it's booked with passengers, especially now, and that's what screws with the numbers.

 

I was doing something similar until a couple of issues with this approach were pointed out to me.

I believe Travel Agents have access to see the % of booked cabins.

 

[canderson]

17 minutes ago, mk960072 said:

I believe Travel Agents have access to see the % of booked cabins.

 

@Jeremiah1212 you out there?

[Bo1953]

I Am still waiting for Nostradamus to weigh in on these types of questions... LOL

 

bon voyage

[Jeremiah1212]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

@Jeremiah1212 you out there?

 

Short answer? No. Group space, unassigned guarantee cabins, crew quarantine cabins, certain categories hitting booking limits, etc. way too many variables to know for sure. 

[canderson]

15 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

Short answer? No. Group space, unassigned guarantee cabins, crew quarantine cabins, certain categories hitting booking limits, etc. way too many variables to know for sure. 

Thanks for confirming.  My TA has said much the same thing, but doesn't frequent CC.  It was in part her explanation that dissuaded me from taking time to use counts for anything more than a rough % of availability, and even that can mean little if there are no line-published COVID caps for a cruise.

[susiesan]

I have friends who want to go with us but are afraid of crowds. If they could be assured of a lower occupancy they would go ahead and lock in the cruise Nov. 29 now. 

[canderson]

@susiesan

Guess it depends upon what they call a crowd and why they're afraid of them, but if they want to cruise in what may well be the least crowded time ever from this day forward, this could be it.  They'll certainly not find a better % vaccinated group to spend time with, if that's their concern.

 

It's also possible to avoid crowds on a Celebrity ship for the most part, even in non-COVID times.  It's a question of whether you want space to yourself in trade for whatever else you might be doing.  One of the things I've always said about the public space / passenger on an X ship:  On an at-sea day, with a full ship, you can still find a spot all to yourself somewhere.

 

[mayleeman]

20 hours ago, canderson said:

Unless that person works at X, the only information available is open/closed availability, and the best that can be calculated from looking at open/closed cabins is an approximate % availability, not % occupancy. 

 

I looked back through and it looks like he is doing just that. 

[TeeRick]

Are Celebrity ships even reaching their self-imposed capacity recently?

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Are Celebrity ships even reaching their self-imposed capacity recently?

Based upon the live blogs here, it's clear that it's a per cruise thing, not a by ship thing.  Some seem to be coming close to 50%, others much lower %, even from one cruise to the next on the same ship.  It has been all over the place.

 

Have seen surprisingly high last minute cancellation and no-show numbers.  Have to wonder if the no-shows don't represent testing issues.

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by canderson

[upwarduk]

On 10/3/2021 at 2:37 AM, Jim_Iain said:

They have mostly cleared deck 7 for new crew and have a table outside each room where they leave them meals.

Is this in addition to deck 6?
It was deck 6 on Silhouette. We were booked on deck 7(7201) and have booked deck 7 again for next year.

Sailings from UK were limited to 50% capacity, which I believe was set by the 🇬🇧government, for staycations and the first international cruises to the Canary Islands.

Edited October 4, 2021 by upwarduk

[blueboro]

11 hours ago, susiesan said:

I have friends who want to go with us but are afraid of crowds. If they could be assured of a lower occupancy they would go ahead and lock in the cruise Nov. 29 now. 

If they want to social distance, they would be able to.  On the 9/17 Equinox you could almost have certain areas to yourself if you desired.  Much better than your local grocery or big box store.

[Jeremiah1212]

47 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Are Celebrity ships even reaching their self-imposed capacity recently?

 

Doubtful. If specific categories are getting too close to hitting whatever threshold is set, they have closed them off a few weeks early but I haven't seen this frequently since summer. I've still yet to hear of anyone being removed or asked to move sailings to reduce numbers.

 

If the ideal number is still 50%(ish) but a particular sailing is booked at 55%, it's unlikely they would deny that 'extra' 5%. Assuming the crew is staffed sufficiently to support that anyway. I don't think any ship is fully staffed right now. 

[DCPIV]

9 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

If the ideal number is still 50%(ish) but a particular sailing is booked at 55%, it's unlikely they would deny that 'extra' 5%. Assuming the crew is staffed sufficiently to support that anyway. I don't think any ship is fully staffed right now.

 

I tend to disagree about that.  You're far more an expert than I am, but I would think they would hold fast to their limits at present, even if those limits are self-imposed. That's especially relevant while they are trying to regain trust and confidence. 

 

If they impose a limit of 50% and sail at 55%, they are taking on quite a bit of extra risk. Should there be a few covid cases on such a sailing, the story would not be that there were a few covid cases. The story would be that covid broke out on an overcrowded ship run by careless moneygrubbers who are now concerned about revenue and profit than their customers' health. Back to square one for the trust and confidence. 

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Based upon the live blogs here, it's clear that it's a per cruise thing, not a by ship thing.  Some seem to be coming close to 50%, others much lower %, even from one cruise to the next on the same ship.  It has been all over the place.

 

Have seen surprisingly high last minute cancellation and no-show numbers.  Have to wonder if the no-shows don't represent testing issues.

 

 

 

I think there were cancellations when they abruptly moved to 2 day testing - before offering a solution.  That issue has been overcome now for most people.  We were a week out from our cruise out of Seattle when they switched from 3 days to 2 days.  It was too late to adjust everything for us - particularly finding new flights at reasonable costs.  So we had to cancel.

[Jeremiah1212]

10 minutes ago, DCPIV said:

 

I tend to disagree about that.  You're far more an expert than I am, but I would think they would hold fast to their limits at present, even if those limits are self-imposed. That's especially relevant while they are trying to regain trust and confidence. 

 

If they impose a limit of 50% and sail at 55%, they are taking on quite a bit of extra risk. Should there be a few covid cases on such a sailing, the story would not be that there were a few covid cases. The story would be that covid broke out on an overcrowded ship run by careless moneygrubbers who are now concerned about revenue and profit than their customers' health. Back to square one for the trust and confidence. 

 

Aside from the UK sailings where they were mandated to limit capacity at 50%, the message on Florida sailings has always been in rather loose terms. "Around' 50%" and maybe near 80% by the holidays is about as specific as anyone has said. The 20% off deal right now has apparently had a significant impact on bookings too. Numbers can't stay low forever and for that reason I think they will continue to shy away from quoting specific limits and timelines. 

[Guppy99]

On 10/3/2021 at 10:16 PM, susiesan said:

I have friends who want to go with us but are afraid of crowds. If they could be assured of a lower occupancy they would go ahead and lock in the cruise Nov. 29 now. 

Ships are huge. Activities are wide-spread. Even when it's full, there are rarely "crowds".