CDC website

[iwannacruz]

Going on the Mardi Gras the week of Thanksgiving. Noticed on the CDC website that the Mardi Gras is at "yellow" which basically means under observation for COVID cases and monitoring. Just one step away from red.

Should I be concerned about this?

[Earthworm Jim]

Not really. I don't know of any ships that have gone red yet. And there's far more greens now than was the case a couple of months ago.

 

There are going to be cases here and there. If 0.1% of the passengers get Covid, the ship goes to yellow. So for example on a ship carrying between 2000 and 4000 passengers (which would be most ships these days) if 2 people tested positive the ship would be in the yellow category. There might 2 people in the store with Covid any time you go grocery shopping, much less on a ship with 3000+ passengers.

 

Keep watching it. It may well turn green long before your cruise. And even if it stays yellow, it's not the end of your cruise. Good luck.

[tallnthensome]

No, almost every ship innthe industry has had some sort of covid issue. 

[Virga]

It infuriates me that we are not privy to the thresholds.  I want to be able to assess my risk myself.  

 

I had been assuming that the CDC would be quite conservative, but Belize said that 26 out of 1441 Vista crew members - 1.8% of the crew - tested positive when trying to visit in August.  That's not quite as conservative as I'd hoped.  Of course, there is no transparency - some people think that 26 was the total over two separate weeks, but I don't have any idea how they came to that conclusion.  CDC and Carnival appear to have no interest in giving us the data, I'm grateful that Belize told us anything at all.

 

All that said, I feel much safer among a fully vaccinated crew/passenger load then I do at home in Florida.  We're all significantly less likely to be infected, be infectious, experience symptoms increasing our infectiousness, or have severe cases. If everyone was vaccinated at home, I'd be more or less back to my normal life.  

 

Anyway, if I was concerned about my OWN chances of a severe case, I might not be cruising.  Because my entire concern is about my chances of infecting others, I just take a few days off after cruising and test several times over the following two weeks - tbh, I test frequently at home even when I'm not traveling.  I am content with my assessment that my risk is lower on board than at home.  I still wish the information was available to us to do a better job of assessing that risk.   

[ray98]

It really doesn't matter.  As long as humans are on the ship so will COVID, now and for the foreseeable future.

 

The cruise ship is a safer place than just about anywhere else right now due to the high percentage of vaccinated people.  

[Schoifmom]

The thresholds for going to yellow are posted on the CDC website.  It is if there is >0.1% of passengers or 1+ crew members reported with Covid or if the ship is late with it's daily reporting to the CDC.

[Virga]

2 hours ago, Schoifmom said:

The thresholds for going to yellow are posted on the CDC website.  It is if there is >0.1% of passengers or 1+ crew members reported with Covid or if the ship is late with it's daily reporting to the CDC.

I actually like the Yellow level threshold a lot - right now, there are fewer than ten states with rates lower than .1%.  Even if I were concerned about my personal risk, I'd feel quite comfortable with an orange sailing.  The problem is that we don't know how wide the Yellow band is.  Absent other information, it looks like covid rates can be 26x higher than the Yellow threshold without triggering a red.  How much higher could they possibly allow?  What good is a level with that kind of spread?

 

I do legitimately feel safer onboard than I would at a pub at home.  That doesn't mean that I don't think we should know what the red thresholds are.  I'd prefer to know the actual cases, but absent that, I think we deserve to know what the 'maximum' risk might be.  My internet complaints obviously won't effect change, but I don't think being frustrated by the lack of transparency is unreasonably.

[wgeddings]

Double check the color meanings.  Yellow may not be as bad as you think.  

[BlerkOne]

Any data from July is quite stale by now and of no value. Let it go.

[BlerkOne]

As no cruise ship is at RED, this indicates no ship has exceeded the threshold.

[kdr69]

22 hours ago, iwannacruz said:

Going on the Mardi Gras the week of Thanksgiving. Noticed on the CDC website that the Mardi Gras is at "yellow" which basically means under observation for COVID cases and monitoring. Just one step away from red.

Should I be concerned about this?

Why would you worry about data from a previous cruise you werent on?

[Virga]

44 minutes ago, wgeddings said:

Double check the color meanings.  Yellow may not be as bad as you think.  

 

Yellow means anywhere from .1% (lower than 80% of the US) to an unknown upper threshold - we have no idea how high a ship can get and still be yellow.

 

I assume your confusion comes from the fact that the CDC, in their infinite wisdom, chose to label their levels in a pretty silly progression:

 

1)Green: zero cases in pax or crew

2)Orange: less than .1% pax cases and zero crew cases

3)Yellow: more than .1% pax cases or any crew cases

4)Red: unknown - the only data we have, issued by Belize, says the Vista had 26 crew cases or of 1441 crew (1.8%) and was never labeled red,

 

Without knowing what the Red thresholds are, a ship being Yellow tells us very, very little.  

 

 

Edit: Again, in case anyone thinks I mean Yellow means unsafe - I sailed on a ship knowing it was Yellow and still felt safer onboard than I would eating or drinking out at home.  I just really believe we should be given the data with which to make the best decisions for ourselves.  The current levels don't give us enough, we deserve better.

 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by Virga

[BlerkOne]

8 minutes ago, Virga said:

 

Yellow means anywhere from .1% (lower than 80% of the US) to an unknown upper threshold - we have no idea how high a ship can get and still be yellow.

 

I assume your confusion comes from the fact that the CDC, in their infinite wisdom, chose to label their levels in a pretty silly progression:

 

1)Green: zero cases in pax or crew

2)Orange: less than .1% pax cases and zero crew cases

3)Yellow: more than .1% pax cases or any crew cases

4)Red: unknown - the only data we have, issued by Belize, says the Vista had 26 crew cases or of 1441 crew (1.8%) and was never labeled red,

 

Without knowing what the Red thresholds are, a ship being Yellow tells us very, very little.  

 

 

Edit: Again, in case anyone thinks I mean Yellow means unsafe - I sailed on a ship knowing it was Yellow and still felt safer onboard than I would eating or drinking or at home.  I just really believe we should be given the data with which to make the best decisions for ourselves.  The current levels don't give us enough, we deserve better.

 

 

 

Red is not a hard number. The Belize stale data tells us neither the CDC nor Belize was concerned.

 

Green Ship Criteria

• No reports of COVID-19 or COVID-19-like illness (CLI) for 7 days, as determined by a qualified medical professional, and
• On-time (by 1200 ET) daily submission of EDC form during past 7 days.

Orange Ship Criteria

• COVID-19 or CLI has been reported in the past 7 days, and the ship is below CDC’s investigation threshold:
  • Restricted Voyages:
    • Cases reported in less than 0.10% of passengers (e.g., if 6500* passengers are on board, it would take at least 7 passenger-cases during the previous 7 days to meet CDC’s investigation threshold), and
    • No crew cases reported.
  • Simulated Voyages:
    • Cases reported in less than 1.5% of passengers, and
    • Cases reported in less than 1.0% of crew.
  • Ships with Crew Only (i.e., not yet submitted requests for simulated voyages or applications for restricted voyages, pending CDC approval, or sailing at a later date).
    • Cases reported in less than 1.0% of crew.

Yellow Ship Criteria

• Ship is at or above CDC’s investigation threshold:
  • Restricted Voyages:
    • Cases reported in 0.10% or more of passengers (e.g., if 6500* passengers on board, CDC’s investigation threshold is met if there are 7 or more cases among passengers occurring during the previous 7 days), or
      • This percentage includes passenger cases occurring within 5 days of disembarkation that CDC was notified of by state or local health departments.
    • One or more cases reported in crew.
  • Simulated Voyages:
    • Cases reported in 1.5% or more of passengers, or
    • Cases reported in 1.0% or more of crew.
  • Ships with Crew Only (i.e., not yet submitted requests for simulated voyages or applications for restricted voyages, pending CDC approval, or sailing at a later date).
    • Cases reported in 1.0% or more of crew.

• OR

• During the past 7 days, the ship failed to submit one or more daily EDC submissions on time (by 1200 ET). On a weekly basis, CDC emails all ships a reminder to submit the EDC form. In addition, CDC sends a reminder email if a ship does not submit their EDC form.

*The largest cruise ships can carry up to 6500 passengers on board.

Red Ship Criteria

• For a ship to be considered at Red status, the ship has:
  • sustained transmission of COVID-19 or CLI, or
  • potential for COVID-19 cases to overwhelm on board medical center resources.
• In addition, CDC will work closely with the cruise line and consider multiple factors before assigning a “Red” status to the ship. These factors may include, but are not limited to the following:
  • Percent of passengers and crew on board who are fully vaccinated.
  • Variants of concern are identified among cases on board.
  • Epidemiologic data from EDC reporting (e.g., symptomatic persons on board requiring medical care)
  • Epidemiologic links between cases.
  • Number of hospital beds, ventilators, oxygen, and other medical supplies on board relative to the number of cases on board.
  • Ship has not replied to CDC’s request for information within 48 hours.
  • During the past 7 days, the ship missed one or more daily submissions of the EDC form. On a weekly basis, CDC emails all ships a reminder to submit the EDC form. In addition, CDC sends a reminder email if a ship does not submit their EDC form.

Gray-designated Ships

• As of July 23, 2021, the CSO and accompanying measures, such as technical instructions, are nonbinding recommendations for cruise ships arriving in, located within, or departing from a port in Florida. CDC is continuing to operate the CSO as a voluntary program for such ships that choose to follow the CSO measures voluntarily. Ships operating out of Florida ports that choose to not follow the CSO are designated as “Gray.” This designation means that CDC has not reviewed or confirmed the cruise ship operator’s health and safety protocols.

[RenoNanaOz]

15 minutes ago, Virga said:

 

Yellow means anywhere from .1% (lower than 80% of the US) to an unknown upper threshold - we have no idea how high a ship can get and still be yellow.

 

I assume your confusion comes from the fact that the CDC, in their infinite wisdom, chose to label their levels in a pretty silly progression:

 

1)Green: zero cases in pax or crew

2)Orange: less than .1% pax cases and zero crew cases

3)Yellow: more than .1% pax cases or any crew cases

4)Red: unknown - the only data we have, issued by Belize, says the Vista had 26 crew cases or of 1441 crew (1.8%) and was never labeled red,

 

Without knowing what the Red thresholds are, a ship being Yellow tells us very, very little.  

 

 

Edit: Again, in case anyone thinks I mean Yellow means unsafe - I sailed on a ship knowing it was Yellow and still felt safer onboard than I would eating or drinking out at home.  I just really believe we should be given the data with which to make the best decisions for ourselves.  The current levels don't give us enough, we deserve better.

 

 

 

 

16 minutes ago, Virga said:

 

Yellow means anywhere from .1% (lower than 80% of the US) to an unknown upper threshold - we have no idea how high a ship can get and still be yellow.

 

I assume your confusion comes from the fact that the CDC, in their infinite wisdom, chose to label their levels in a pretty silly progression:

 

1)Green: zero cases in pax or crew

2)Orange: less than .1% pax cases and zero crew cases

3)Yellow: more than .1% pax cases or any crew cases

4)Red: unknown - the only data we have, issued by Belize, says the Vista had 26 crew cases or of 1441 crew (1.8%) and was never labeled red,

 

Without knowing what the Red thresholds are, a ship being Yellow tells us very, very little.  

 

 

Edit: Again, in case anyone thinks I mean Yellow means unsafe - I sailed on a ship knowing it was Yellow and still felt safer onboard than I would eating or drinking out at home.  I just really believe we should be given the data with which to make the best decisions for ourselves.  The current levels don't give us enough, we deserve better.

 

16 minutes ago, Virga said:

Yes decisions for ourselves, same for those who choose not to be vaccinated. 

 

 

 

 

[Virga]

12 minutes ago, RenoNanaOz said:

 

Something about vaccination that my phone refuses to quote automatically, my apologies... 

 

 

Ok?  You might be in the wrong thread, this one is about the CDC color coding for cruise ships.  If you meant re: transparency...  Luckily for folks deciding whether or not to get vaccinated, all the data - globally - is at their fingertips.  

 

20 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Red is not a hard number. The Belize stale data tells us neither the CDC nor Belize was concerned.

 

Right, that's my complaint.  Yellow means everything from 'lower case rates than 42 US states' to... ?  We don't know, we just know that it means the CDC doesn't yet think it's out of hand.  That's what I find inappropriately opaque.  They've made the Yellow band functionally useless for an end user.  And yes, I consider ships being allowed to continue offloading pax to be a very good indicator that cases are at a level I would also assess as acceptable. 

 

I'm not arguing that Yellow means unsafe.  I'm complaining that the way they designed their levels, Yellow doesn't tell us anything useful at all.  

Edited October 25, 2021 by Virga

[BlerkOne]

8 minutes ago, Virga said:

 

Ok?  You might be in the wrong thread, this one is about the CDC color coding for cruise ships.  If you meant re: transparency...  Luckily for folks deciding whether or not to get vaccinated, all the data - globally - is at their fingertips.  

 

 

Right, that's my complaint.  Yellow means everything from 'lower case rates than 42 US states' to... ?  We don't know, we just know that it means the CDC doesn't yet think it's out of hand.  That's what I find inappropriately opaque.  They've made the Yellow band functionally useless for an end user.  And yes, I consider ships being allowed to continue offloading pax to be a very good indicator that cases are at a level I would also assess as acceptable. 

 

I'm not arguing that Yellow means unsafe.  I'm complaining that the way they designed their levels, Yellow doesn't tell us anything useful at all.  

Yellow tells you all you need to know. There isn't a hard number because it depends on more factors than number of passengers and would vary with ship, sailing capacity, and more. We've already seen how people misinterpret raw data - there is no point in giving people anything more than colors.

[Virga]

Just now, BlerkOne said:

Yellow tells you all you need to know. There isn't a hard number because it depends on more factors than number of passengers and would vary with ship, sailing capacity, and more. We've already seen how people misinterpret raw data - there is no point in giving people anything more than colors.

 

I don't think I can get on board with the argument that, 'Lots of people are apparently astoundingly bad with v.large and v.small numbers, so we're just going to obscure it all because of how dullards might misinterpret it.'

 

And I'm not even pleading for the raw data - I'd personally prefer that, sure, but I'd settle for them breaking down the upper band into bands with useful spread that make the colors actually mean something.  Maybe putting Orange between Yellow and Red where it belonged, with a more reasonable 'proceed with caution' threshold?  As it stands, the color coding is close to worthless unless your risk tolerance is exceptionally low - and those people probably shouldn't be on a ship at all.  There should be at least one extra band between 'still lower than almost everywhere' and 'so bad we had to recall the ship.'  An uncomfortable percentage of the population being truly bad at math isn't a great excuse.

[BlerkOne]

54 minutes ago, Virga said:

 

I don't think I can get on board with the argument that, 'Lots of people are apparently astoundingly bad with v.large and v.small numbers, so we're just going to obscure it all because of how dullards might misinterpret it.'

 

And I'm not even pleading for the raw data - I'd personally prefer that, sure, but I'd settle for them breaking down the upper band into bands with useful spread that make the colors actually mean something.  Maybe putting Orange between Yellow and Red where it belonged, with a more reasonable 'proceed with caution' threshold?  As it stands, the color coding is close to worthless unless your risk tolerance is exceptionally low - and those people probably shouldn't be on a ship at all.  There should be at least one extra band between 'still lower than almost everywhere' and 'so bad we had to recall the ship.'  An uncomfortable percentage of the population being truly bad at math isn't a great excuse.

Much like Carnival, the CDC can't please everyone. You get what you get. The request for comments expired over a year ago, as I recall.

[Virga]

30 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Much like Carnival, the CDC can't please everyone. You get what you get. The request for comments expired over a year ago, as I recall.

 

If they put this framework out there over a year ago and no one at LEAST brought up the ludicrous 'Green->Orange->Yellow->Red' severity coding, then I suppose I have to concede that we really did get what we deserve.  I'm suddenly imagining that most of the public comments were along the lines of, 'Please!  We don't care what you do, just let us cruise!!'

[ray98]

The color codes are fine because they directly relate cases by percentage of occupancy for each individual ship.  People could never comprehend a larger ship with more passengers will likely have more cases as routine than a smaller ship.  They would look at raw numbers, misinterpret it and create some misleading meme to post on social media.

[Virga]

6 minutes ago, ray98 said:

The color codes are fine because they directly relate cases by percentage of occupancy for each individual ship.  People could never comprehend a larger ship with more passengers will likely have more cases as routine than a smaller ship.  They would look at raw numbers, misinterpret it and create some misleading meme to post on social media.

 

That is exactly the problem, they do NOT directly relate to percentages past .1% - there are no further percentages given at all.  It's even worse for crew, where percentages are ignored completely.  I'd happily settle for color bands if they told us more than, 'there's very little covid detected here, but we'll keep an eye out' before jumping straight to 'oh no, this is bad, the ship needs to be recalled to handle the uncontrolled outbreak!'

 

42 US states are currently running higher than .1%, but NONE are higher than .2% - so why do we not have a color band representing some sane 'proceed with caution' level?  The Vista apparently had 1.8% of their crew test positive - that's 2500% more crew cases than the Yellow threshold - and did not turn red!

 

(Boy, is that some fun number torture, or what?  Easily avoided with color bands with transparent thresholds at levels that aren't asinine!  It's ludicrous to have just three levels of crew status - zero, 1 or more, and OHNOSHUTITDOWN!  I can't fathom how people don't see that it's a really, really poorly designed set of metrics)

[BlerkOne]

8 minutes ago, Virga said:

 

The Vista apparently had 1.8% of their crew test positive - that's 2500% more crew cases than the Yellow threshold - and did not turn red!

 

 

Because it was over two cruises. You don't count crew quarantining on the ship twice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Virga]

17 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Because it was over two cruises. You don't count crew quarantining on the ship twice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Do you happen to have the source for that?  The only primary source I've ever found on the topic was from the Belize Tourism Board (https://belizetourismboard.org/carnival-vista-port-call-to-belize-city/) that says the ship "reported that it had on board 27 positive cases" when they arrived in Belize.  I've read on here that this total was over two different weeks, but haven't found any primary sources for that belief. I'm not clear on why Carnival would have double counted their cases when reporting their situation to Belize, but I'd definitely feel a lot better about <1% of crew testing positive than 1.8%.  

 

[BlerkOne]

38 minutes ago, Virga said:

 

Do you happen to have the source for that?  The only primary source I've ever found on the topic was from the Belize Tourism Board (https://belizetourismboard.org/carnival-vista-port-call-to-belize-city/) that says the ship "reported that it had on board 27 positive cases" when they arrived in Belize.  I've read on here that this total was over two different weeks, but haven't found any primary sources for that belief. I'm not clear on why Carnival would have double counted their cases when reporting their situation to Belize, but I'd definitely feel a lot better about <1% of crew testing positive than 1.8%.  

 

Check the ambulance chaser's account. I believe much of the testing was done on a Saturday - a turn around day between two  cruises. In any event, all of the crew isn't tested at the same time. It is broken up into so many per day 

 

Crew that test positive and aren't serious cases stay on the ship in isolation cabins until recovered. Carnival didn't report 26 new cases to Belize, but total cases. I think 1 case was the poor woman who was taken off the ship and to a hospital.

 

Cruise lines are required to report ALL cases to the CDC in a timely manner. No cruise line is going to risk getting their permission to sail yanked.

 

There have been significant changes to COVID protocols since that ancient July data, including testing for all passengers, not just the unvaxed. Cruising was already safe, and now it is more so.

[broberts]

6 hours ago, Virga said:

 

Ok?  You might be in the wrong thread, this one is about the CDC color coding for cruise ships.  If you meant re: transparency...  Luckily for folks deciding whether or not to get vaccinated, all the data - globally - is at their fingertips.  

 

 

Right, that's my complaint.  Yellow means everything from 'lower case rates than 42 US states' to... ?  We don't know, we just know that it means the CDC doesn't yet think it's out of hand.  That's what I find inappropriately opaque.  They've made the Yellow band functionally useless for an end user.  And yes, I consider ships being allowed to continue offloading pax to be a very good indicator that cases are at a level I would also assess as acceptable. 

 

I'm not arguing that Yellow means unsafe.  I'm complaining that the way they designed their levels, Yellow doesn't tell us anything useful at all.  

 

The CDC color code system was not intended to inform consumers. 

 

Yellow tells you exactly what it is designed to convey, there are enough cases on board to warrant CDC investigation / monitoring.