Full Capacity

[c-cruise]

We were on Feb 20 Breakaway and told roughly 1,300 onboard with a hard cap of 1,400 passengers. Said this was up some from the previous week. I would imagine they would steadily increase as I don't think there is a shortage of demand with mandates being lifted, etc.

 

Side note: we were in Haven and were told Haven was booked fully except for a few rooms on deck 15, but seemed like a ghost town to me (along with the rest of the ship).

[Kzeeguy]

So from what I gather , looking like my March 26th cruise will not be full. More food and drinks for us!

[pdmlynek]

How would one find out what the percentage of the cabins is occupied on any cruise?

[The Traveling Man]

10 minutes ago, pdmlynek said:

How would one find out what the percentage of the cabins is occupied on any cruise?

The easiest way is to ask.  Several of the senior officers have access to up-to-date info of passenger counts.  The most approachable is probably the Cruise Next Manager.  Just ask, then compare what they tell you with the published capacity as shown on the NCL website.

[Ottawa_Cruiser]

On 3/2/2022 at 1:46 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

An analysist from JP MOrgan asked Frank Del Rio this very question in an official earnings call QA last summer. This is his response. To the best of my knowledge there have been no modifications to this policy. 

 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-nclh-q2-2021-earnings-call-transcript/ar-AAN1Kgb?ocid=uxbndlbing

 

Notice the word "Trying". If NCL could sail with more passengers, they would. Consumer demand has not returned. 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for this! I don't really care how many people are on the boat...I just can't wait to get my a$$ back on one. 

[RRSeeker]

I called CAS today with a question on my May 22nd cruise. I was told they are only doing 60%  capacity. I don’t know if that is true but that is what she told me. 

[cc-riderslc]

I have been wondering the same thing.  I will be on the Sun, 21 June to Alaska.  I am used to seeing Alaska sailings full way before now but the Sun seems to have plenty of space still available.  It seems in line with a 60 or 70% occupancy rate.  Maybe a little lower.  Like has been said here, not sure if that is a cap or just because people aren't sailing.  A ship that will only hold 2000 passenger going out at 1200 seems like a dream cruise to Alaska.  Can't wait to get golng.

[blueslily]

8 hours ago, cc-riderslc said:

I have been wondering the same thing.  I will be on the Sun, 21 June to Alaska.  I am used to seeing Alaska sailings full way before now but the Sun seems to have plenty of space still available.  It seems in line with a 60 or 70% occupancy rate.  Maybe a little lower.  Like has been said here, not sure if that is a cap or just because people aren't sailing.  A ship that will only hold 2000 passenger going out at 1200 seems like a dream cruise to Alaska.  Can't wait to get golng.

 

With cruises months from now like May, June, July, August, September, etc., sounds like a lot of time for booking numbers to change. People are slowly deciding if they feel comfortable cruising again. I probably would not make any predictions about passenger counts on cruises that far out right now. I know families usually plan a bit in advance for summer vacations, but with so many things being different and so many changes recently, I probably would not compare vacation planning norms prior to COVID to planning decisions made now. If people are cruising this month like in the next 1-4 weeks, sure, we can talk about passenger counts. But, anything can happen to affect passenger counts that are several weeks or months in the future. Just my thoughts. We all have seen how things have changed back and forth quite quickly. 

Edited March 5, 2022 by blueslily

[davencl]

13 hours ago, cc-riderslc said:

I have been wondering the same thing.  I will be on the Sun, 21 June to Alaska.  I am used to seeing Alaska sailings full way before now but the Sun seems to have plenty of space still available.  It seems in line with a 60 or 70% occupancy rate.  Maybe a little lower.  Like has been said here, not sure if that is a cap or just because people aren't sailing.  A ship that will only hold 2000 passenger going out at 1200 seems like a dream cruise to Alaska.  Can't wait to get golng.

We were on the Encore mid august.  It truely was a dream cruise.  We were not in the Haven but it felt like the Haven.

[Lionkingrichard]

4 hours ago, blueslily said:

 

With cruises months from now like May, June, July, August, September, etc., sounds like a lot of time for booking numbers to change. People are slowly deciding if they feel comfortable cruising again. I probably would not make any predictions about passenger counts on cruises that far out right now. I know families usually plan a bit in advance for summer vacations, but with so many things being different and so many changes recently, I probably would not compare vacation planning norms prior to COVID to planning decisions made now. If people are cruising this month like in the next 1-4 weeks, sure, we can talk about passenger counts. But, anything can happen to affect passenger counts that are several weeks or months in the future. Just my thoughts. We all have seen how things have changed back and forth quite quickly. 

Was at the Butcher shop yesterday and talking with a women about our cruise last week. At first she was like oh with Covid going on, but then when she heard about ships half full and discounts and everyone tested before hand she said I think I might book ASAP.

[julig22]

3 hours ago, Lionkingrichard said:

Was at the Butcher shop yesterday and talking with a women about our cruise last week. At first she was like oh with Covid going on, but then when she heard about ships half full and discounts and everyone tested before hand she said I think I might book ASAP.

SHHH.  Don't spread the word - I'm really liking the empty ships!

[Beaver1975]

As soon as they get rid of the vaccination requirements they will fill ships to capacity. 

[Karaboudjan]

15 hours ago, Beaver1975 said:

As soon as they get rid of the vaccination requirements they will fill ships to capacity. 

 

That's not likely.  Ships are around 40% occupancy and roughly 70% of the 12+ population is fully vaccinated.  That means that the 30% who are unvaccinated would have to fill the remaining 60% of capacity.

[At Sea At Peace]

On 3/5/2022 at 3:04 PM, julig22 said:

SHHH.  Don't spread the word - I'm really liking the empty ships!

 

Yep, it's probably nice.  In the short term.  Just not financially sustainable to the creditors once the cash flow is gone if such is the result in the long term.

 

The cruise resumption has been less than impressive.  The speaking heads have been boasting about % return to capacity on a "ship/total ships" basis and NOT on "passenger/total passenger capacity" basis.

 

Also, I'm surprised at the apparent discount pricing, even the newest and most prestigious ships on the big three lines.  The summer season needs to see full ships at full prices or they simply don't see another summer season under current governance and ownership.

 

After reading a Boston article today people are even choosing summer rentals (homes, condos) over hotel stays and that the Cape and the Islands properties have sold out at the fastest rate in 25 years.  So, it could be that, like hotels, people aren't ready to return more compact environments such as cruising yet?

 

We've cruised hundreds of days since 2008, normally B2B's on the best of the best, when schools are in, nonvacation or holiday periods.  We haven't cruised since December of 2019 (did 10-12 weeks that year), absolutely love cruising, but have no plans soon to get back on a cruise ship with passengers from around the country and world and traverse port itineraries in various states of disrepair and healthiness.  Just not ready.

[oteixeira]

3 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

We've cruised hundreds of days since 2008, normally B2B's on the best of the best, when schools are in, nonvacation or holiday periods.  We haven't cruised since December of 2019 (did 10-12 weeks that year), absolutely love cruising, but have no plans soon to get back on a cruise ship with passengers from around the country and world and traverse port itineraries in various states of disrepair and healthiness.  Just not ready.

And this is totally your personal choice and I respect that, but at the end of the day has nothing to do with the percentage of passengers on ships. I have cruised twice since the restart, so it is clear we feel differently.  I hope you one day get back to where you can feel as safe as you did before all of this started.

As for the record breaking sales on rentals, I can point to record breaking sales on cruises for Prima, as well as the upscale lines world cruise itineraries, so really we can pick and choose news stories like that all day.  At the end of the day the ships need to (and I think) will fill up percentage wise over this summer, or anyone with eyes can see it will be an issue for all of the big 3.

[DiscalC8]

On 3/3/2022 at 8:35 PM, Kzeeguy said:

So from what I gather , looking like my March 26th cruise will not be full. More food and drinks for us!

Just got off the Joy Saturday (3/5).   We had 1300pax (1600 crew).    Was told they were ramping up and might be over 2000 by April so you're probably going to have plenty of elbow room for your 3/26 cruise.

We had a great time.   

You mentioned food and drink - bartender Rodrigo at the (outdoor section of) the Sugarcane Mojito Bar is an artist at concocting cocktails to fit any palette.   Just let him know your general likes and dislikes and you'll be impressed with what he comes up with.

 

[JustAPilot]

It’s a bit worrisome that we are now in the spring break season and ships are still not even half full. Other then spring break and Christmas, what other seasons are there that command high pricing for the Caribbean? 
Summer is Europe season and with what’s going on there right now and the possibility of it spilling over it looks to be a very uncertain cruising year again.

[dexddd]

On 3/3/2022 at 2:30 PM, ged1967 said:

I heard on our recent dawn cruise that once the masks are removed, which is now, NCL would be looking at full capacity within a couple of months. 
 

However will they get full capacity? Many are still cautious about cruising, and numbers will build slowly. 
 

on our Feb 20th Dawn there was approximately 1,100 pax onboard. Up from around 850 on the first cruise in January. 
 

Deck 4 is exclusively for quarantine purposes.  
 

I am planning on posting a review shortly. 

Deck 4 on Dawn hosts the medical center and only about 25% are rooms for guests so that makes sense.

[At Sea At Peace]

52 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

And this is totally your personal choice and I respect that, but at the end of the day has nothing to do with the percentage of passengers on ships. 

 

I can't agree or disagree as I don't have the input of the reasons from the vast number of previous or potential cruise passengers "that have not gone on these ships" that are operating a significantly reduced capacity which is clearly not solely based on cruise line capacity limitations.

 

So, again, it's our choice, and I can't speak for everyone.

 

 

52 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

As for the record breaking sales on rentals, I can point to record breaking sales on cruises for Prima, as well as the upscale lines world cruise itineraries, so really we can pick and choose news stories like that all day.  At the end of the day the ships need to (and I think) will fill up percentage wise over this summer, or anyone with eyes can see it will be an issue for all of the big 3.

 

I would agree that the newest of the new ships and the upscale world cruises appear to have the most interest.  That certainly is picking and choosing.  There are a lot of other ships in the fleets of the big 3.  They cannot survive off bookings solely on a couple of ships or itineraries.  As noted by others, even RCL's Wonder OTS is rather comparatively underpriced for the newest lady of the fleet, and also quite available.  The news story about the Cape and Islands of Massachusetts is a pretty broad measure, especially with the related hotels (Boston's summer tourist season is awesome) not enjoying the same.

 

Yes, definitely eyes can see it will be an issue for all of the big 3. 

 

CCL is down 5%+- on almost 20M shares traded against a daily average of 40M is just over the first 45 minutes of trading. 

 

NCL down a little bit more at 5.5% on similar high volume, almost 10M shares traded versus average of 22M in the same 45 minutes. 

 

RCL down almost 7%, similar volume and time period.

 

Take care.  Hoping for the best for all.  😀

[At Sea At Peace]

30 minutes ago, JustAPilot said:

It’s a bit worrisome that we are now in the spring break season and ships are still not even half full. Other then spring break and Christmas, what other seasons are there that command high pricing for the Caribbean? 

Summer is Europe season and with what’s going on there right now and the possibility of it spilling over it looks to be a very uncertain cruising year again.

 

Yep.  Per their earnings press slide.  They are counting / planning on 31% of their revenues from such.

 

 

[oteixeira]

7 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

Yes, definitely eyes can see it will be an issue for all of the big 3. 

 

CCL is down 5%+- on almost 20M shares traded against a daily average of 40M is just over the first 45 minutes of trading. 

 

NCL down a little bit more at 5.5% on similar high volume, almost 10M shares traded versus average of 22M in the same 45 minutes. 

 

RCL down almost 7%, similar volume and time period.

 

Take care.  Hoping for the best for all.  😀

I want to be clear that this is not an issue with the cruise lines.  All of the travel sector is getting slammed because of the Russia war (read OIL).  Until that is resolved, travel will be a mess.  Go look at airlines, they are full and adding flights daily, and are also down as a stock group and back to almost as bad as they were when Covid first hit.  Please do not confuse the war/oil (and also new US inflation) issues with the cruise ships not being full.  We were not full last fall in the midst of Delta but the stock was holding in the upper 20s.    

[At Sea At Peace]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

I want to be clear that this is not an issue with the cruise lines. 

 

Agree if modified by one word.  "I want to be clear that this is not" only "an issue with the cruise lines."

 

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

All of the travel sector is getting slammed because of the Russia war (read OIL).  Until that is resolved, travel will be a mess.  Go look at airlines, they are full and adding flights daily, and are also down as a stock group and back to almost as bad as they were when Covid first hit.     

 

Agree also, and cruise lines are at a point in the spectrum of discretionary travel and "not an essential industry."  That puts them at more risk.

 

They cannot be compared to the airlines, deemed an "essential industry" that received $74 Billion in aid in the past 2 years.

 

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

Please do not confuse the war/oil (and also new US inflation) issues with the cruise ships not being full.  We were not full last fall in the midst of Delta but the stock was holding in the upper 20s.    

 

It was trading at almost $35 per share as an intra-day high in the past year.  It is now 'bouncing' around $16.  That is a 55% decrease (or loss) from that point.

 

In sum, it doesn't matter why cruises aren't full, geopolitical, fuel, inflation, borders, pandemics, etc.  They aren't full or at full prices.  It's not their fault, it's a tough spot to be in.  They simply do not have the existing financial capabilities to sustain "not returning to normal, historic capacities at equivalent prices that also must accommodate increased fuel, food and other costs.

 

It is what it is.

 

I only 'hope' for the best.

 

Can't wait to cruise again, when we decide.  Watch all the beautiful ships all week (mostly weekends) come and go from Port Everglades with envy.

 

Best to you and hope you're right. 

[Celltech]

On 3/3/2022 at 5:25 PM, The Traveling Man said:

Sorry, but were you alive in the 1970's and 1980's?  Today's inflation is nothing compared to then.

Yes, I was alive in the 70s and 80s.  From my perspective, things are 100 times WORSE now.  Things are so bad now it makes the Jimmy Carter years look like picnic times.  At least people had ample affordable housing then and that is gone as prices for everything go up with no end in sight. You remember those years completely different from myself, husband, and older friends from those years.

[The Traveling Man]

1 hour ago, Celltech said:

Yes, I was alive in the 70s and 80s.  From my perspective, things are 100 times WORSE now.  Things are so bad now it makes the Jimmy Carter years look like picnic times.  At least people had ample affordable housing then and that is gone as prices for everything go up with no end in sight. You remember those years completely different from myself, husband, and older friends from those years.

My remarks were in response to a post by someone who stated that our current inflation rate is the highest in US history.  I was merely pointing out that several years in the 1970s and 1980s saw rates greater than today's rate.  In a couple of those years the rate was almost double what it is today.  There are, of course, many other factors that impact one's world view of our overall economic condition.  Your opinion of the state of affairs is shared by many.  My remarks, however, dealt specifically with the rate of annual inflation.  Your assumptions regarding my world view of overall economic conditions of today vis-a-vis the 70s and 80s are without foundation.  Your mention of the Carter years brings to mind interest rates approaching 20%, long lines at gas stations, with strict limits on the number of gallons per customer, and price increases occurring so frequently that many companies had to hire additional personnel just to reprice their inventory when suppliers raised costs.

[BermudaBound2014]

22 hours ago, Beaver1975 said:

As soon as they get rid of the vaccination requirements they will fill ships to capacity. 

 

If it were only that simple. No doubt the vaccination policy is stopping people from booking, but ships are sailing with such low numbers that other factors are in play. Some people don't like the chance of quarantine. Others remain afraid of Covid. But, I believe the biggest obstacle to recovery is Johnny Public's perception of cruising in a petri dish. Until cruise lines can recapture all the people who have vowed to never cruise (or never cruise again)  things will remain bleak.