Carnival’s Next Class of Ship

[slavens_09]

Do you guys think the Jubilee will be the last XL class ship built for Carnival? 
 

I’m thinking that it will be. I think they will try to come up with something that is closer to matching Icon of the Seas. 
 

Thoughts?

[Guest BasicSailor]

10 minutes ago, slavens_09 said:

Jubilee will be the last XL class ship built for Carnival? 

I think you are correct, at least for a while yet to come. I read somewhere where they sold a few more sister brands off.

[staceyglow]

18 minutes ago, slavens_09 said:

I think they will try to come up with something that is closer to matching Icon of the Seas. 

 

Thoughts?

I hope not. I like smaller ships. 

[CarnivalShips480]

17 minutes ago, slavens_09 said:

Do you guys think the Jubilee will be the last XL class ship built for Carnival? 
 

I’m thinking that it will be. I think they will try to come up with something that is closer to matching Icon of the Seas. 
 

Thoughts?

I think it will be a new class. The Carnival Corp CEO said there wouldn't be any newbuilds after these (Jubilee -2023, Seabourn Pursuit -2023 Queen Anne -2024, Sun Princess -2024, Sphere 2 -2025) until at least 2027, and that's stretching it. From there it will have been 4-5 years since Jubilee and 7-8 years since Mardi Gras so I think the next new build would be a new class.

[Old Fart Cruisers]

I don't think Carnival will be spending money on ANY new builds for quite some time, with the massive amount of debt that they currently have.  Also, they haven't been trying to compete with Royal Caribbean's new ship size or features for decades

 

[slavens_09]

26 minutes ago, Old Fart Cruisers said:

I don't think Carnival will be spending money on ANY new builds for quite some time, with the massive amount of debt that they currently have.  Also, they haven't been trying to compete with Royal Caribbean's new ship size or features for decades

 

I don’t think I completely agree about spending on new builds. The other lines are under similar pressures from debt. (Granted Carnival is a little deeper) and have invested in new builds. I think they could announce a new build for Carnival before the end of 2025. 
 

I also think the XL class was definitely a move to offer something closer to the Oasis class. Much larger capacity than any previous Carnival ship, zones (neighborhoods). I also agree they are not trying to directly match but rather have a competitive product to what other lines like Royal are offering. 

[tidecat]

There's no real need to replace anything in Carnival Cruise Line's fleet before 2026 (when Carnival Sunshine turns 30), and I think we will see Carnival push that out until 2028 or possibly even later. A lot of it will depend on how well Elation, Paradise, and Sunshine perform.

 

I would not be surprised to see an order for two ships with delivery dates between late 2027-early 2029, effectively replacing Sunshine, Elation, and Paradise. That would still give Carnival around 3,000 extra lower berths compared to what they are scheduled to have in mid-2024.

 

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Carnival build those as modified Excellence class ships. The engineering would need at most minor changes, and at that point, the class will be going through the first set of statutory drydocks, Carnival can use that time to make changes to improve passenger flow, revenue yield, etc. Royal has been building Oasis class ships since 2009, and is still in the process of doing so - don't break what doesn't need fixing.

 

After 2029, all bets are off. Carnival has 14 ships totaling 38,000 lower berths and over 1.4 million gross tons that entered service between 1999 and 2009. Carnival would probably realistically need seven or eight ships the size of Mardi Gras/Celebration/Jubilee in the span of a decade, even if there might be some wiggle room as to when that decade starts.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, CarnivalShips480 said:

I think it will be a new class. The Carnival Corp CEO said there wouldn't be any newbuilds after these (Jubilee -2023, Seabourn Pursuit -2023 Queen Anne -2024, Sun Princess -2024, Sphere 2 -2025) until at least 2027, and that's stretching it. From there it will have been 4-5 years since Jubilee and 7-8 years since Mardi Gras so I think the next new build would be a new class.

Source?

[tidecat]

The mos

18 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Source?

The most recent earnings call confirms no ships on order for 2026. It looks like 2027's fate is TBD: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590404-carnival-corporation-and-plc-ccl-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript

[BlerkOne]

23 minutes ago, tidecat said:

The mos

The most recent earnings call confirms no ships on order for 2026. It looks like 2027's fate is TBD: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590404-carnival-corporation-and-plc-ccl-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript

Ok. Last time they were expecting 1-2 ships per year going forward starting in 2027. But a pause in new builds does allow Carnival to knock down debt.

[Lee Cruiser]

24 minutes ago, tidecat said:

It looks like 2027's fate is TBD

Yes, it certainly does.  Based on what they are saying, I wouldn't expect any new ships until at least 2028.  It sounds clear that they are planning to use this to help pay down debt. That could help position them for the future (2028 and beyond.)  However, the big problem is that the other cruise lines appear to be continuing to build new ships, which allows them to continue to create excitement and charge more.  Which plan is better?  Time will tell.

[BlerkOne]

Building new ships takes financing and more debt. Other cruise lines will have to charge more to pay for higher financing costs. Carnival's approach will allow them to reduce debt and improve their credit rating. When they resume building, fixed costs will be lower and Carnival can continue to be the price leader

 

Unless there are serious flaws with the Excel, I don't see a radical departure from the design.

[Squirreladd]

What about coming up with something to succeed the spirit class. It will be good having more versatile ships, with better weather proofing, that could also replace the smaller ships as they get phased out. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Squirreladd

[vwrestler171]

13 minutes ago, Squirreladd said:

What about coming up with something to succeed the spirit class. It will be good having more versatile ships, with better weather proofing, that could also replace the smaller ships as they get phased out. 

Smaller ships are not as profitable as te larger ships, so I doubt you'll see anything that small from Carnival for a long time, if ever.  The ports that need the smaller ships need Carnival more than Carnival needs them.

[Squirreladd]

Just now, vwrestler171 said:

Smaller ships are not as profitable as te larger ships, so I doubt you'll see anything that small from Carnival for a long time, if ever.  The ports that need the smaller ships need Carnival more than Carnival needs them.

Maybe not a small ship but a modified Vista, or Excel that can do Alaska, That is still profitable. 

[tidecat]

43 minutes ago, Squirreladd said:

Maybe not a small ship but a modified Vista, or Excel that can do Alaska, That is still profitable. 

How Carnival intends to serve Alaska in the 2030s may very well drive the new build process. Since those ships can't be based in Seattle during the winter, there really needs to be something that can transit the Panama Canal once it's time to bid the Spirit class farewell. Ideally I'd like to see something like Norwegian Bliss - something large enough to comfortably house 4,000 passengers, but still able to transit the Panama Canal. Ideally Carnival would take two of those in the early 2030s to replace Spirit and Miracle, then one around 2040 to replace Luminosa.

[Squirreladd]

3 hours ago, tidecat said:

How Carnival intends to serve Alaska in the 2030s may very well drive the new build process. Since those ships can't be based in Seattle during the winter, there really needs to be something that can transit the Panama Canal once it's time to bid the Spirit class farewell. Ideally I'd like to see something like Norwegian Bliss - something large enough to comfortably house 4,000 passengers, but still able to transit the Panama Canal. Ideally Carnival would take two of those in the early 2030s to replace Spirit and Miracle, then one around 2040 to replace Luminosa.

Who says they need to transit the Panama canal. Up until next year the miracle was nearly year round west coast, and the luminosa will be going down under. I would think maybe just cruising Seattle in the summer and Australia the rest of the year for one ship the other San Francisco and San Diego doing CA coast cruises, Mexican Riviera, and Hawaii for it's non Alaskan season

 

[LouChamp]

Aloha. With the huge debt load and associated factors aside, cruise companies have a survival need to keep building almost like hospitals need to keep expanding. People get tired of “old” ships.  I read constantly about guests complaining a ship is old even when the ship is only 5 years old lol.  In order to keep attracting new passengers, they need more bells and whistles and either bigger or more advanced but have a conundrum which almost necessitates newbuilds.  They are married to the shipyards and their respective banks and shareholders. It is a delicate balance.

[tidecat]

52 minutes ago, Squirreladd said:

Who says they need to transit the Panama canal. Up until next year the miracle was nearly year round west coast, and the luminosa will be going down under. I would think maybe just cruising Seattle in the summer and Australia the rest of the year for one ship the other San Francisco and San Diego doing CA coast cruises, Mexican Riviera, and Hawaii for it's non Alaskan season

 

Not being able to transit the Panama Canal may limit Carnival in how to deploy the fleet during the off-season. Miracle is moving from Long Beach to Galveston in the winter not only to accommodate Firenze, but because there is demand out of Galveston (assuming Miracle returns to San Francisco for the 2025 Alaska season). Spirit is spending this winter in Miami, and will spend next winter in Mobile - we don't have an answer yet for 2024-25, but I don't see Australia or California taking another ship seasonally - demand in Australia has been weaker, and Long Beach is already at there ships. Unless if San Francisco or San Diego have enough unmet demand during the winter, Spirit should return to the Gulf Coast in 2024. San Francisco's height restrictions aren't as bad as Tampa, Jacksonville, or Baltimore, but ultimately that will come into play as well - once the older ships are gone.

 

Going around South America twice annually would be out of the question as that would likely be 90-100 days total between the two repositioning voyages.

[BlerkOne]

7 hours ago, LouChamp said:

Aloha. With the huge debt load and associated factors aside, cruise companies have a survival need to keep building almost like hospitals need to keep expanding. People get tired of “old” ships.  I read constantly about guests complaining a ship is old even when the ship is only 5 years old lol.  In order to keep attracting new passengers, they need more bells and whistles and either bigger or more advanced but have a conundrum which almost necessitates newbuilds.  They are married to the shipyards and their respective banks and shareholders. It is a delicate balance.

I don't think a majority of cruisers need sensory overload to not be bored. Many of us like to get away from the noise and enjoy the serenity. No matter the age of the ship, the water and ports are the same. Except when the ships get too big to fit.

[BlerkOne]

6 hours ago, tidecat said:

 

 

Going around South America twice annually would be out of the question as that would likely be 90-100 days total between the two repositioning voyages.

I enjoy going around South America, and Carnival seems to get away with charging a premium for one off cruises. If sailed as non-revenue, they could knock that 90-100 way down.

[jsglow]

So I just read the investor presentation for the first time. Notably, CCL generated free cash flow for the first time since the pandemic and has peaked in their borrowing requirements.  It is through FCF that they intend to reduce debt on a going forward basis and expect that process to accelerate given recent trends.  They also indicated that future build decisions will be driven by achieving debt reduction targets in the interim.  I won't get more technical or too deep into the weeds but this is all good news.

[Guest BasicSailor]

29 minutes ago, jsglow said:

  They also indicated that future build decisions will be driven by achieving debt reduction targets in the interim.  I won't get more technical or too deep into the weeds but this is all good news.

I'm not too sure on the Good News. If the builds are to reduce dept, then we all know what type of ships are making the most money.

[Squirreladd]

CCL may also continue to cannibalize their less successful brands rather then new builds. 

 

Read somewhere part of the revenue problem is the Europeans don't gamble as much as the Americans. However it seems the downsizing has mostly focused on Costa. 

 

 

[SRQbeachgirl]

4 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

I don't think a majority of cruisers need sensory overload to not be bored. Many of us like to get away from the noise and enjoy the serenity. No matter the age of the ship, the water and ports are the same. Except when the ships get too big to fit.

 

Agreed. I'm of the opinion that bigger is not always better. I would love something better than the Paradise sailing out of Tampa but none of the new ships will ever be able to sail out of there unless the Port Authority builds new facilities west of the Skyway.