RCG Q3 earnings report

[Jeremiah1212]

Some bits of information are available before their formal release this morning: 

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-caribbean-group-reports-third-quarter-results-and-increases-full-year-guidance-301968685.html#:~:text=MIAMI%2C Oct. 26%2C 2023,further strength in onboard revenue.

 

As always this is Royal Caribbean group-wide not Celebrity specific. 

 

The big question you see here is how full are the ships? Occupancy is at 109.7%.  Close in bookings (I believe their definition of close is <6 months to sail date) continue to outpace historical levels. So those high near last minute prices? People are paying them. Net yield guidance is increased to over 13% vs 2019 levels. Deposits are sitting at 5 billion. Current booking demand significantly exceeds 2019 levels, onboard spend exceeds significantly 2019 levels. We'll see if they release any interesting commentary from the Q&A. 

[Jim_Iain]

The market seems pleased since they topped estimates.   Up $1.26.  

[Baron Barracuda]

Revenue comparisons vs 2019 are no longer as meaningful as all ships are back at sea and  fleet additions have increased number of available berths by double digits.  More significant is how they've been able to pay down $3B in debt ytd much of it carrying 11.5% rate.

[RedIguana]

2 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Revenue comparisons vs 2019 are no longer as meaningful as all ships are back at sea and  fleet additions have increased number of available berths by double digits

10-99 new berths seems low 🤪

[deliver42]

With the prices we're paying and, eve3n more, what  Royal's prices, not to mention drink pkgs and specialty dining, no wonder they're making a lot of money.

[LB_NJ]

How do you have over 100% occupancy?

[Miss SeaBee]

13 minutes ago, LB_NJ said:

How do you have over 100% occupancy?

I think occupancy is based on 2 passengers per cabin, so triples and quads would go over 100%.

[Jeremiah1212]

3 hours ago, LB_NJ said:

How do you have over 100% occupancy?

 

3 hours ago, Miss SeaBee said:

I think occupancy is based on 2 passengers per cabin, so triples and quads would go over 100%.

 

👍

 

The average max capacity for the Celebrity fleet is about 115%, give or take. That's why when people say "my ship is at 98% capacity...nearly full!" without some context that number is meaningless and most likely wrong. The spread on Beyond and Ascent between 100% and actual max capacity at 117% equates to nearly 600 additional people. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Jeremiah1212

[Ex-Airbalancer]

3 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

 

👍

 

The average max capacity for the Celebrity fleet is about 115%, give or take. That's why when people say "my ship is at 98% capacity...nearly full!" without some context that number is meaningless and most likely wrong. The spread on Beyond and Ascent between 100% and actual max capacity at 117% equates to nearly 600 additional people. 

I believe most people are stating about the number of cabins that have passenger in them 

so they if they can do a move up bid 😁

[Jim_Iain]

3 hours ago, Miss SeaBee said:

I think occupancy is based on 2 passengers per cabin, so triples and quads would go over 100%.

 

Exactly how it is calculated.  

 

If you look at the Fleet Guide it will show both 100% Capacity as Well as Maximum Legal Capacity and designate how many cabins in each class have 3 or 4 Passenger capabilities.  

[Spif Barwunkel]

Based on the latest RCG earnings report, and considering a continuing similar positive trend, is there a reasonable timeframe in which RCG can attain and maintain solvency, more so than just being able to pay the bills? When factoring in a build of ten new ships across the Brand, are these new vessels necessary to continuing the upward trend? I would certainly like to see all things successful.

 

The numbers and calculations are too much for me. Any prognostications from the learned ones? 

 

  

[mnocket]

I've given up on trying to predict where the cruise line stocks are going.  The reaction to earnings have been very muted.  One thing that concerns me long-term is that we're in a period of high occupancy despite significant price increases and cost cutting.  Other than high debt, which is a persistent issue, this should be the best of times for the cruise industry.  What is going to happen when the tide turns, as it always does?  If this is how the stocks behave when things are going great, do they have any resiliency to withstand a downturn?