OBC-Stock should I purchase today?

[Derbie]

We are supposed to work with our advisor this afternoon, in regards to purchasing 100 shares of Carnival stock.  I am concerned, based on a thread posted on here, in regards to the OBC only being good through 2024.  We have an 8-day cruise scheduled on Carnival Magic in June, and a 10-day for  Emerald Princess next month.  If this is the case, I may not want to put out the funds, if this no longer a benefit from owing stock.  Any information is certainly welcome.  

[mz-s]

Speak to your financial advisor about it.

 

Historically Carnival Corp routinely renews the benefit, but it has always been possible that they will allow it to expire at any time.

 

My advice has been and will always be to hold $CCL if you want, but not purely for the shareholder benefit unless you can get the stock cheap (like back when it was around $800 for 100 shares) and you cruise enough to get that initial investment back in the form of OBC quickly.

 

The reality is $CCL "could" go to $0 and you could lose your entire investment. Nothing is guaranteed with the stock market. Carnival Corp could eliminate the shareholder benefit. So you could end up losing your investment. Likelihood of either of those happening? Couldn't say. I doubt you'll make much on the 100 shares any time soon the way the industry is going right now but the stock won't go to $0, and I do think Carnival will renew the benefit but as I said neither are guarantees by any means. If you cannot tolerate that, then I would personally not recommend buying the stock.

[teknoge3k]

1 hour ago, mz-s said:

My advice has been and will always be to hold $CCL if you want, but not purely for the shareholder benefit unless you can get the stock cheap (like back when it was around $800 for 100 shares) and you cruise enough to get that initial investment back in the form of OBC quickly.

 

I remember when it went down to $676 for 100 shares, everyone was jumping on it, as opposed to the $1,550 today. 

[CGinMTL]

You can buy now and sell if the benefit ends.

[mz-s]

11 minutes ago, CGinMTL said:

You can buy now and sell if the benefit ends.

 

The problem with that strategy is there is no telling what the stock will be worth when/if that happens. OP could end up taking a decent loss. No way of knowing. It's all about how much risk you are willing to stomach.

[Elaine5715]

1 hour ago, Derbie said:

We are supposed to work with our advisor this afternoon, in regards to purchasing 100 shares of Carnival stock.  I am concerned, based on a thread posted on here, in regards to the OBC only being good through 2024.  We have an 8-day cruise scheduled on Carnival Magic in June, and a 10-day for  Emerald Princess next month.  If this is the case, I may not want to put out the funds, if this no longer a benefit from owing stock.  Any information is certainly welcome.  

Just FYI-if you book casino offers, you cannot no longer get the stockholder benefit. 

[ledges1]

CCL is $15.50 per share and does not pay dividends. As an investment, it is not good. If the $1550 to purchase 100 shares is immaterial to your financial situation, go for it. I am sure your advisor can offer better long term investment advice.

[Colorado Beach Bum]

8 minutes ago, ledges1 said:

CCL is $15.50 per share and does not pay dividends. As an investment, it is not good. If the $1550 to purchase 100 shares is immaterial to your financial situation, go for it. I am sure your advisor can offer better long term investment advice.

No dividends but if OP takes two cruises this year and gets $200 OBC, that’s just under 13% return which is way higher than past dividends. And if OP turns around and sells that stock right after getting OBC without any loss it’s not a bad move.  But as others have said, get your advice from your advisor.  We are all in different financial situations and what’s good for one is horrible for others. 

[tha sista]

25 minutes ago, Elaine5715 said:

Just FYI-if you book casino offers, you cannot no longer get the stockholder benefit. 

can you elaborate.  I have a couple of casino offers that are a "reduced rate" (not really) but just have OBC.  Whats the "rule" re stockholder credit?

[ontheweb]

There have been so many predictions on these boards that the stockholder's OBC would not be renewed. After the stock tanked because of what Covid did to cruising, many on these boards were sure it would disappear, or at least they would make you own twice as many shares to receive it. Instead, at the first opportunity they renewed it for 2 years instead of the usual 1 year.

 

It is a marketing tool that costs them practically nothing. They will keep renewing it. I would not worry about it disappearing.

[Derbie]

1 hour ago, ledges1 said:

CCL is $15.50 per share and does not pay dividends. As an investment, it is not good. If the $1550 to purchase 100 shares is immaterial to your financial situation, go for it. I am sure your advisor can offer better long term investment advice.

I appreciate the reply. We sail on Carnival and Princess (Holland as well, though they don't honor the OBC situation-I have been told) quite often.  I wanted the stock strictly for the OBC. 

 

[Elaine5715]

2 hours ago, tha sista said:

can you elaborate.  I have a couple of casino offers that are a "reduced rate" (not really) but just have OBC.  Whats the "rule" re stockholder credit?

The rule is any discounted rate will not be eligible.  It used to be hit and miss but with the new method, seems to be 100% denied on any casino related offers.

[mz-s]

2 hours ago, tha sista said:

can you elaborate.  I have a couple of casino offers that are a "reduced rate" (not really) but just have OBC.  Whats the "rule" re stockholder credit?

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/shareholder-information/shareholder-benefit

 

In practice it seems that anyone who is sailing on a "free" casino rate does not get shareholder OBC as well. But a casino rate that is simply a discount but not a free cabin does still qualify.

 

This could change. Note that the rules above state that "anyone else cruising at a reduced-rate or on complimentary basis are excluded from this offer"

 

It's really a matter of time for Carnival to start enforcing the "at a reduced-rate" portion of that sentence.

[mz-s]

Just now, Elaine5715 said:

The rule is any discounted rate will not be eligible.  It used to be hit and miss but with the new method, seems to be 100% denied on any casino related offers.

 

So now any casino rate - even a discounted (but not free) cabin are excluded? Good to know. And that invalidates what I just wrote above.

[tha sista]

29 minutes ago, Elaine5715 said:

The rule is any discounted rate will not be eligible.  It used to be hit and miss but with the new method, seems to be 100% denied on any casino related offers.

not trying to beat an already very dead horse but ...  Nearly every cruise booked by every individual is on a sale of some sort and not just casino discounts.  Are they singling out casino discounts and not approving those or ALL discounted cabins?   I'd like to verify in any way possible because I sold my stock right after I stopped crusing for a while and want to repurchase.  The ROI is excellent for those who cruise alot.

 

 

[Frank12]

1 hour ago, Elaine5715 said:

The rule is any discounted rate will not be eligible.  It used to be hit and miss but with the new method, seems to be 100% denied on any casino related offers.

Yes indeed, the good old days are over.  I never used to get it denied no matter how cheap my room was, but have had several recent ones denied because of a discounted cruise rate.

[stobe1]

2 points. And this is advice is worth what you paid for it so take it for what it is...(or as my grandpa would always say, "Let me give you a nickel's worth of free advice")...

 

1. I wouldn't take stock advice from CC or any public forum for that matter. Speak with your broker or financial advisor.

 

2. I wouldn't buy CCL stock just for the $50 or $100 OBC you could get (depending on sailing length). Think about how many cruises you would have to take just to break even on your inital stock purchase price. Sounds like you just want to buy the stock for OBC and not as an investment. 100 shares isn't going to make you rich and the ROI just for OBC isn't really worth it, to be honest.

Edited April 10 by stobe1

[Derbie]

1 minute ago, stobe1 said:

2 points. And this is advice is worth what you paid for it so that it for what it is...

 

1. I wouldn't take stock advice from CC or any public forum for that matter. Speak with your broker or financial advisor.

 

2. I wouldn't buy CCL stock just for the $50 or $100 OBC you could get (depending on sailing length). Think about how many cruises you would have to take just to break even on your inital stock purchase price. Sounds like you just want to buy the stock for OBC and not as an investment. 100 shares isn't going to make you rich and the ROI just for OBC isn't really worth it, to be honest.

I found your advice very helpful!  Thanks so much.

[firefly333]

5 hours ago, teknoge3k said:

 

I remember when it went down to $676 for 100 shares, everyone was jumping on it, as opposed to the $1,550 today. 

Not even that high now. Under $15.

 

I'd sold my rcl and thought I bought it back. Bought it yesterday 130.57. .. ccl so much  cheaper to buy 100 shares. 

 

Still holding a bunch of ccl average over $21. Waiting ... i do think it will come back to what i paid, though not soon. I'm patient. 

[teknoge3k]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

Not even that high now. Under $15.

 

I'd sold my rcl and thought I bought it back. Bought it yesterday 130.57. .. ccl so much  cheaper to buy 100 shares. 

 

Still holding a bunch of ccl average over $21. Waiting ... i do think it will come back to what i paid, though not soon. I'm patient. 

 

It dropped since I posted that 5hrs ago, unfortunately. This morning it was at $15.50

[CGinMTL]

3 hours ago, Derbie said:

I appreciate the reply. We sail on Carnival and Princess (Holland as well, though they don't honor the OBC situation-I have been told) quite often.  I wanted the stock strictly for the OBC. 

 

Holland does honour shareholder obc.

Got it for 1 cruise last year

And 2 more upcoming in may 

 

[firefly333]

14 minutes ago, Derbie said:

I found your advice very helpful!  Thanks so much.

On the other side of the same argument. You can buy 100 shares of ccl ... prove you bought them and sell. 

 

I dont pay commission to buy or sell so it costs me nothing to dip in and out of a stock. I do it all the time. Just have to be holding the 100 shares when you apply for the obc. Maybe I'm just good but I can find a day it dips buy, show proof, sell it even or higher. Not always right, in 2020 I underestimated covid when I bought ccl. But I'm generally correct. 

 

I have 7 cruises booked this year. $100 obc is $700 I can spend. More booked going forward. For me I disagree with the advice about how much that $1550 is worth toward other cruises. Dont hold the stock, easy. Of course I support myself with my stocks, so my thinking isnt the same as a novice who rarely buys and sells stocks. 

[stobe1]

As I said...speak to a financial advisor or stock broker lol. 

[tha sista]

31 minutes ago, stobe1 said:

2 points. And this is advice is worth what you paid for it so take it for what it is...(or as my grandpa would always say, "Let me give you a nickel's worth of free advice")...

 

1. I wouldn't take stock advice from CC or any public forum for that matter. Speak with your broker or financial advisor.

 

2. I wouldn't buy CCL stock just for the $50 or $100 OBC you could get (depending on sailing length). Think about how many cruises you would have to take just to break even on your inital stock purchase price. Sounds like you just want to buy the stock for OBC and not as an investment. 100 shares isn't going to make you rich and the ROI just for OBC isn't really worth it, to be honest.

This is great advice however per my broker it is not a bad investment IF you are going to get the OBC AND you are going to use said OBC AND you cruise often enough AND you have the disposable cash to do it.  Lots of caveats to make it worth while.  It would not be a good investment for me if I can't use it for that reason.  

[firefly333]

1 minute ago, stobe1 said:

As I said...speak to a financial advisor or stock broker lol. 

Lol I fired my Merrill lynch broker and now dont ask. I'm assuming you mean for those who dont know stocks. I now actually have a really good ubs broker, who matches me toe to toe and we can talk stocks. I do this for a living but I inherited a couple of trusts i manage and they have a broker. I enjoy talking stocks with him and as i said he matches me toe to toe unlike the dufus Merrill lynch assigned to me. He knows as much as i do. I daily follow the market. 

 

For instance I'd bet $100 there was a leak of the inflation number at least a day early. That selling yesterday morning was institutional selling. They knew the number was hot and started to sell yesterday at open on no news. 

 

At this price I'd buy if i wanted more ccl. Unless you believe they will go under this is a decent entry.