Dancing of the Ships 2019-2020 speculation

[skiingj]

It would be awesome if LB or SD did get a newer ship but not the Vista. Please no Vista or Horizon. IMHO its not a nice ship. Vista has a terrible layout to start with... Give LB or SD anything older than Vista and newer than Fantasy class. Plus I doubt market conditions could support a ship as large as Vista. Carnival needs to get back to 9-12 day itineraries out of SoCal. So many port options with 9-12 days out of SoCal.

[adam3313]

Isn't Splendor set to leave Carnival and transfer to P&O to go to China? Wasn't that part of the deal for Carnival getting Panorama?

[spencercoop]

Isn't Splendor set to leave Carnival and transfer to P&O to go to China? Wasn't that part of the deal for Carnival getting Panorama?

 

Not anymore. P&O Australia is now getting the Golden Princess.

[CRUISINCOREY13]

Not anymore. P&O Australia is now getting the Golden Princess.

 

 

 

It still remains an open question whether the Splendor, Legend or a different (newer) ship will join the Spirit under Carnival Australia.

[coffeeboy77]

Would love them to use San Diego again. I think of it as offering as much if not more than Long Beach even with QM and Disneyland . Just so much more accessible beach, beauty and history fitting with the Mexican Riviera Cruise. Additionally, the West coast is warm kids (kidding a bit) compared to the inner west where we keep growing and growing enough to hopefully add to demand for travel there. I would love more Pacific N to Vancouver and South to San Diego trips putting just one stop out of country to make it work (forget those rules) and I would love to see them build upon the ever growing wine industry in addition to fabulous ports along the west coast. Hi Jimbo.

 

I too would love to see Carnival branded ships depart from the beautiful San Diego once again. We went on the Spirit from San Diego (2012 I believe) and had a fabulous experience. However, I think the way they may possibly look at it is Carnival Corp has San Diego covered with Holland and Princess. I know that's how they look at Alaska. Carnival does a terrible job with Alaska...one older ship, a Tuesday - Tuesday itinerary for most of the season, and not going to the amazing Glacier Bay often. However, Holland America does a great job with Alaska, and Princess is ok. In the mean time, NCL is entering the Alaska fray with the new Bliss. Other lines are positioning newer ships to the West Coast as well. I think some loyal Carnival cruisers on the West Coast who want to vacation on a newer ship will potentially sample the competition rather than hop on a plane to Florida.

[toad455]

I still wonder how long Carnival will hold on to these Fantasy-class ships? Fantasy will be 28 years old, Ecstasy will be 27 years old, Sensation will be 25 years old. Though I doubt a big class will ever sail from Mobile or Jacksonville, these ships probably don't have much time left in the Carnival fleet. With the Holidays-class ships, the Jubilee lasted only 18 years(sadly now scrapped), the Celebration lasted 21 years & the Holiday lasted 24 years.

[mz-s]

I still wonder how long Carnival will hold on to these Fantasy-class ships? Fantasy will be 28 years old, Ecstasy will be 27 years old, Sensation will be 25 years old. Though I doubt a big class will ever sail from Mobile or Jacksonville, these ships probably don't have much time left in the Carnival fleet. With the Holidays-class ships, the Jubilee lasted only 18 years(sadly now scrapped), the Celebration lasted 21 years & the Holiday lasted 24 years.

 

These ships are still sailing full even in smaller home ports and to the same ports of call week in and week out. They'll last until the next big recession and retraction in cruise demand I think. The Holiday lasted until the 2008 recession, and had that recession not happened she may still be with Carnival to this day.

[coffeeboy77]

These ships are still sailing full even in smaller home ports and to the same ports of call week in and week out. They'll last until the next big recession and retraction in cruise demand I think. The Holiday lasted until the 2008 recession, and had that recession not happened she may still be with Carnival to this day.

 

I just got off the Imagination last week and had a great time. Perfect for a short cost effective getaway. The Imagination was clean, in good shape, and I hope she stays in service for years to come.

[Thorncroft]

I still wonder how long Carnival will hold on to these Fantasy-class ships? Fantasy will be 28 years old, Ecstasy will be 27 years old, Sensation will be 25 years old. Though I doubt a big class will ever sail from Mobile or Jacksonville, these ships probably don't have much time left in the Carnival fleet. With the Holidays-class ships, the Jubilee lasted only 18 years(sadly now scrapped), the Celebration lasted 21 years & the Holiday lasted 24 years.

 

Jacksonville has bridge issues. Unless they move their terminal, nothing bigger than a Spirit class can sail from there. Mobile has no such issues and with Carnival moving some of their newest ships to short runs, it could certainly be a possibility if the numbers work. Historically, Mobile is the first step on the way out the door for ships that end up there, though. As long as Carnival finds itself with a glut of ships, the third world homeports will be in play.

[jimbo5544]

Jacksonville has bridge issues. Unless they move their terminal, nothing bigger than a Spirit class can sail from there. Mobile has no such issues and with Carnival moving some of their newest ships to short runs, it could certainly be a possibility if the numbers work. Historically, Mobile is the first step on the way out the door for ships that end up there, though. As long as Carnival finds itself with a glut of ships, the third world homeports will be in play.

 

 

 

I think it is a fascinating opportunity for both Carnival and their cruisers. As I previously mentioned, there def were plans to expand south. I do agree they have a lot of ships for their current homeport layout. Of course there are other options, but hopefully they wont be seriously considered.

 

 

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[tidecat]

Jacksonville has bridge issues. Unless they move their terminal, nothing bigger than a Spirit class can sail from there. Mobile has no such issues and with Carnival moving some of their newest ships to short runs, it could certainly be a possibility if the numbers work. Historically, Mobile is the first step on the way out the door for ships that end up there, though. As long as Carnival finds itself with a glut of ships, the third world homeports will be in play.

Carnival has announced 2019 dry dock dates for Fantasy; based on a three year cycle she should come due again in December 2021 or January 2022, and that’s the one I’m worried about, especially since there will be an Excellence class ship entering service a few months after that.

 

It will also be telling if Imagination and Paradise receive balcony cabins during their next drydocks (should be Fall 2019 for Imagination, and Paradise is scheduled for a month-long drydock starting February 22, 2018). Imagination could be on her way out in 2022 as well. Long Beach would get the new ship, Imagination and Fantasy transfer away, and Inspiration heads to Mobile.

 

If Carnival orders a ship for 2024, it would likely mean curtains for Fascination, although if Fantasy survives the winter of 2021-22, she probably bows out here if Carnival continues ordersong ships with more than 5200 passenger berths. If Fantasy is already gone, Inspiration may not safe here either as she would be due for dry dock in mid-2024.

 

Ecstasy and Sensation probably are safe until 2026 given they both received 2.0 upgrades during their 2017 dry docks, assuming Carnival orders a new ship for 2025 or 2026.

 

Elation and Paradise probably survive until around 2030 which closes out the Fantasy class. I actually would expect the Sunshine to go before them as she is older, and would come up for dry dock in 2028.

 

That would still be an increase in capacity of around 8000 berths, even with only five ships replacing nine (assuming Sunshine goes down).

[SadieN]

It’s hard to mix a ship doing the 4/5/5 rotation, a 3/4 rotation, and a ship doing 7 day cruises. Mathematically it’s a bit claustrophobic, but it could work:

 

 

 

7 day: Saturday

 

4/3 day: Monday/Friday

 

5/4/5: Sunday/Thursday/Tuesday

 

 

 

The other solution of course, is to expand the Long Beach terminal to handle two ships being home at the same time.

 

 

 

Obviously there is demand for the 3 day cruises, otherwise Carnival wouldn’t dedicate two ships to that route. The Excellence class ships have enough passenger capacity to replace two Fantasy class ships so in theory Carnival could replace two ships with one without actually cutting capacity in Long Beach. The issue with the four-day cruises is that Catalina Island is a tender port, so capacity is an issue for guests going ashore.

 

 

 

That schedule will allow Princess to keep using Long Beach as a port stop on their CA Coastal cruises out of San Francisco.

Tendering isn’t that big of a problem on Catalina anymore. They’re using a couple of the Catalina Ferries. Both carry around 300pax, are ADA compliant, and have bathrooms. Cabo is still a ‘wonderful’ tendering experience. [emoji33]

 

Doubt Carnival will be sailing out of San Diego anytime in the near future.

[riclop]

Isn't Splendor set to leave Carnival and transfer to P&O to go to China? Wasn't that part of the deal for Carnival getting Panorama?

Not anymore.

[riclop]

It would be awesome if LB or SD did get a newer ship but not the Vista. Please no Vista or Horizon. IMHO its not a nice ship. Vista has a terrible layout to start with... Give LB or SD anything older than Vista and newer than Fantasy class. Plus I doubt market conditions could support a ship as large as Vista. Carnival needs to get back to 9-12 day itineraries out of SoCal. So many port options with 9-12 days out of SoCal.

Agree they can keep the Vista class.

[CA_Cruzing]

It would be awesome if LB or SD did get a newer ship but not the Vista. Please no Vista or Horizon. IMHO its not a nice ship. Vista has a terrible layout to start with... Give LB or SD anything older than Vista and newer than Fantasy class. Plus I doubt market conditions could support a ship as large as Vista. Carnival needs to get back to 9-12 day itineraries out of SoCal. So many port options with 9-12 days out of SoCal.

 

 

 

Fully agree on 9+ day cruises on west coast.

 

Princess does a 10 day Mex Riv from SF and since we live in NorCal it’s becoming more enticing considering we drive 2 days, 1 down and 1 up, for a LB cruise.

 

SD cruises with 9-12 day itineraries sound appealing. Maybe South America cruises in the future? Something, please.

 

Having done Mex Riv 3 times already, its old. Mixing up west coast would be nice. And with a Dream class or larger boat, even better.

 

 

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[jedi bobs]

I'm thinking one of the Vita Class will go to Canaveral, while a Sunshined Triumph, and the other Vista Class will go to Everglades. BTW My PVP, a former Big Sexy Cruise Director, said the Victory is set for a long Dry Dock too.

[CruiseAdict218]

I'm thinking one of the Vita Class will go to Canaveral, while a Sunshined Triumph, and the other Vista Class will go to Everglades. BTW My PVP, a former Big Sexy Cruise Director, said the Victory is set for a long Dry Dock too.

 

One will probably split its time with New York, hoping for a Sunshined Triumph. Wonder when they will Sunshine the Victory if that's the case, she's scheduled for a dry dock in January I believe but it's not a long one.

[KmomChicago]

I don’t think he was serious

 

 

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I wish he was serious. Flying is terrible, expensive, complicated, scary, unreliable, etc. A cruise from Cleveland would be awesome, and a cruise from Rochester would still be the closest option for us by car.

[jimbo5544]

I wish he was serious. Flying is terrible, expensive, complicated, scary, unreliable, etc. A cruise from Cleveland would be awesome, and a cruise from Rochester would still be the closest option for us by car.

 

 

 

American steamboat company is for you then

 

 

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[jasong38501]

One will probably split its time with New York, hoping for a Sunshined Triumph. Wonder when they will Sunshine the Victory if that's the case, she's scheduled for a dry dock in January I believe but it's not a long one.

 

You are correct, Victory will be in dry dock January 4th-20th, not a long one like the Triumph. Triumph is scheduled to be in dry dock for 2 months(3/2/19 through 5/1/19).

[jimbo5544]

One will probably split its time with New York, hoping for a Sunshined Triumph. Wonder when they will Sunshine the Victory if that's the case, she's scheduled for a dry dock in January I believe but it's not a long one.

 

 

 

Sunshinig requires a trip back to Italy and 4 to 6 months.

 

 

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[jasong38501]

Sunshinig requires a trip back to Italy and 4 to 6 months.

 

 

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They are still planning something extensive if they are dry docking it for two months. And as I posted way earlier in the thread, they have given Grand Cayman cruise port a larger capacity for Triumph than they do for Conquest class ships once she returns to service.

[KmomChicago]

American steamboat company is for you then

 

 

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Not the right line for us Jimbo. We have that 11 year old to deal with and we are cheaper than last season's sweaters on the Walmart $3 rack. ASC is expensive and not right for our demographic at this point in our lives.

 

What I want (and can't have, obviously), is one of the old departed small Carnival ships, like the Tropicale or Mardi Gras, doing fun cruises on the Great Lakes for bargain basement prices.

 

I'm not really serious either, but that is what I want.

 

And if they Sunshine the Triumph, what will they call her? Sunrise? Sunset? Sunseeker?

[jasong38501]

Since this thread is about speculation here is my best guess at the changes for the rest of the schedule they haven't released. Panoma will take over for Horizon since they seem to put all the new builds doing that lately. Horizon will move to Galveston to take over Vista's 7 day there. Vista will come back to Miami to take over Magic's 7 day. Magic will go to Long Beach to take over for Splendor. (That would be a nice canal transit!) Splendor will come to Canaveral to do a 6/8 day since the Sunshine is leaving. A spruced up Triumph will go to Galveston to take over the 7 day the Freedom is doing and the Freedom will move to Ft Lauderdale to take over for the Conquest. And finally after Legend finishes her Alaska season she moves to Tampa and they send the Miracle to Australia where she will be based year around. Who knows if I get any of them right but at least I think that takes care of all the unsolved pieces still out there on the schedule.

[CruiseAdict218]

Since this thread is about speculation here is my best guess at the changes for the rest of the schedule they haven't released. Panoma will take over for Horizon since they seem to put all the new builds doing that lately. Horizon will move to Galveston to take over Vista's 7 day there. Vista will come back to Miami to take over Magic's 7 day. Magic will go to Long Beach to take over for Splendor. (That would be a nice canal transit!) Splendor will come to Canaveral to do a 6/8 day since the Sunshine is leaving. A spruced up Triumph will go to Galveston to take over the 7 day the Freedom is doing and the Freedom will move to Ft Lauderdale to take over for the Conquest. And finally after Legend finishes her Alaska season she moves to Tampa and they send the Miracle to Australia where she will be based year around. Who knows if I get any of them right but at least I think that takes care of all the unsolved pieces still out there on the schedule.

 

Splendor will probably move between Alaska and Australia, but either Triumph/Horizon/Panorama will split with New York, probably whatever ships sails from Port Everglades.