News on the Westerdam

[SeaHunt]

2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

The Westerdam case is a failure of containment. The pax were released (without quarantine) after just 14 days, without a laboratory test for everyone.

 

The single confirmed case was likely self-medicating to suppress flu symptoms. However, she was eventually detected by a thermal scan(?), and confirmed with two laboratory tests.

 

The upside is that if she was able to suppress her symptoms throughout the 14 days, then no one else may be infected...."

 

 

I hope no one else is positive. I do worry about the Cambodian PM Hun Sen - in videos of him meeting with the passengers he shook the passengers hands and kissed cheeks in welcome - what a nightmare if HE develops symptoms. 🤔

 

 

 

On the other hand other reports said he "threatened to kick out any reporters or officials seen wearing protective face masks" so?

 

 

[gphb]

8 hours ago, fragilek said:

"Still on board. They’ve tested guests and 185 of 380 in Kuala Lumpur have tested negative so far. They’re going to swab the rest of us coronavirus and results for everybody may take 2 days to complete and then hopefully they’ll book flights providing everyone’s negative". from someone still on the ship  twitter @Lorrian34100

It seems this is very good news.

The latest paper from the Imperial/WHO/MRC group (Paper #5 at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ ) indicates that they see an epidemic doubling time of 7 days (how long it takes for the number of cases in a given epidemic to double) in the overall event and they model that 13.5% of those infected are what the media call "super-spreaders" and transmit at a rate 74x larger than the remaining infected individuals.   

It seemed an interesting paper that based all of their analysis on how the RNA is mutating in this virus across different patients which allows them to really trace its propagation over time, and the other good news was that it doesn't seem to be mutating any faster than any other similar virus, very slowly in fact in terms of changes per year.   The paper included a few caveats and while just published the last sample was from Feb 3 so a while ago, but overall this 74x difference really could explain how Diamond Princess and Westerdam might end up very differently indeed.  

Anyway based on all this, a lay person like me might reason that the Diamond Princess had one or more super-spreaders and that even just based on this model there is as yet no evidence consistent with a super-spreader on Westerdam and its possible we might not see much more from this particular event now that the individual and the person closest to her has been isolated.    We can hope and pray. 

[hal2008]

15 hours ago, lvz2cruz said:

I just don't understand the hate on HAL.

Nobody onboard had the virus.  Nobody reported symptoms.  Everyone well.   They were onboard longer than what many are saying is the incubation period and nothing presented. People were checked and every thing done as suggested by WHO and CDC.

Why are they now blamed?

 

 

Are you serious or being sarcastic?

 

"Nobody onboard had virus".

Of course they had. Why is 83 year old in hospital in KL with two positives?

Plus, you believe HAL PR statement when they had not done a single test?

 

"Nobody reported symptoms"

I think with over 6 weeks of so much publicity, we all should know that virus exists for up to 14 days before symptoms can show up.

 

"Everyone well"

Not really. 20 visits to onboard clinic was documented. Lot more self-treating or suppressing.

 

"They were onboard longer"

Nope they were onboard less than 14 days after HK stop.

 

"People were checked"

Nope. There was no diagnostic tests available onboard to check anyone.

Tempertaure measurement is useless.

 

"I dont understand"

No comments.

[fragilek]

 the  Cambodian PM Hun Sen wasn't the only photo opp risk taker

@USAmbCambodia

I’m on board the #Westerdam with my family to greet fellow Americans. Wow! The seven-member Hampton family from Missouri is high-spirited & making the best of their difficult journey. We’re working with Cambodian friends to help the Hamptons and their fellow passengers get home.

 

and another @USEmbPhnomPenh

 

 

[gphb]

 

18 minutes ago, gphb said:

It seems this is very good news.

The latest paper from the Imperial/WHO/MRC group 

I should mention that the reason why I try and follow these peer reviewed papers and not just rely on CDC/WHO statements is that we are now in a "containment stage" of a pandemic operation, and at least in the USA an executive order has been quietly issued by the military branch of the government (joint chiefs) initiating the largest scale pandemic preparation (Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13) to date.   As they state clearly, "in no way does the planning indicate a greater likelihood of an event developing", so just prudent planning, but the protocols in such cases are widely documented to be around communicating what is best overall for the long term population health, which may not be consistent with the actual facts.     Hence why we might see the WHO president making what seem like ill-timed statements, ambassadors or prime ministers pursuing photo-ops over public health, or US State Dept ignoring the immediately prior determination and written promise of CDC in evacuation protocol for those 14 infected but asymptomatic.   

Edited February 17, 2020 by gphb
fixed typo

[hal2008]

9 hours ago, dado123456 said:

February 17, 2020

 

Sihanoukville, Preah Sihanouk province: 

The State Secretariat for Civil Aviation (SSCA) said yesterday that 494 of MS Westerdam’s 2,257 passengers and crew have left for their home country through Phnom Penh International Airport and a further 145 through Sihanoukville International Airport.

Chea Aun, spokesman for SSCA, said that the remaining passengers and crew are expected to leave in batches in the coming days via Phnom Penh International Airport. It is not yet known when or how the MS Westerdam will set sail, given that crew members are among those who have left the vessel and headed for their respective home countries....

 

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50691772/almost-500-passengers-of-ms-westerdam-have-headed-home

 

145 from Sihanoukville matches the number at KL (first charter flight) - out which 143 have dispersed into world population

 

494 have flown out of Phnon Pemh to home country or KL?

 

Are there anyone from Wesrerdam stuck in Malyasian Hotels?

 

[hal2008]

9 hours ago, fragilek said:

 Just read that about 1/2 the test results for those in the hotels have come back negative (those still on the ship will be the last to undergo testing) - However, which countries will trust these results and allow the passengers to transit through given that the same Cambodia tested and found the infected woman negative.  Will they accept that the tests are quite often wrong regardless of who is undertaking them, or will they just not trust the Cambodian testing.

 

Combodia did not test that infected woman.

Only 20 people who visited onboard clinic were tested (and reliability is unknown)

 

"Health screening" was basically taking temperature and asking pax to self-report (no one with pragmatic sense is going to self report anythin in Combodia)

[hal2008]

7 hours ago, Wehwalt said:

It's good to hear that some of the passengers made it home, and that when arriving in Sihanoukville, visited the town and the beach. I seem to recall some discussion on the latter point.

 

Good if they were not asymptomatic carriers

 

Otherwise think about fellow passengers on flights they took, people they interacted at airports even if you disregard combodians in town or beach as their own PM doesnt give a damn about health of his people. (He insist on coninuing flights to china and yells at journalists who were masks)

[hal2008]

5 hours ago, dado123456 said:

 

35 Westerdam Passengers Found Clear of COVID-19 at Thai Airport

BANGKOK, Feb. 17 (Bangkok Post) - Two Thai passengers on board the luxury cruise ship Westerdam have no sign of the coronavirus, though a 83-year-old American passenger of the luxury cruise ship twice tested positive for Covid-19 by Malaysian health officials.

Two Thai passengers are among the 35 passengers of the luxury cruise who arrived at Suvarnabhumi airport yesterday.

Public Health Ministry spokesman Rungrueng Kitphati said all 35 passengers were screened for coronavirus and tested negative and cleared. The passengers arrived yesterday after being screened and cleared by Cambodian health authorities as they head back to their respective countries.

 

http://m.en.freshnewsasia.com/index.php/en/internationalnews/16745-2020-02-17-06-40-07.html

 

"screened for coronovirus" is as humbug as it gets.

Only tests that can confirm one way or other takes days.

So most likely this "screend for coronovirus" was most likely no temperature and not coughing while being checked - type of screening!!

[hal2008]

17 minutes ago, gphb said:

 

IUS State Dept ignoring the immediately prior determination and written promise of CDC in evacuation protocol for those 14 infected but asymptomatic.   

 

 

That alone loses all faith and trust in CDC and US govt agencies.

 

While it was one thing to release a confirmed infected patient by mistake into larger population, this decision to violate carefully planned protocol is inexcusable. 

 

Macau has 5 active case. Singapore has over 75.

Which country is on travel ban and which country has no restrictions from Trump adminstration?

Go figure.

[dado123456]

Update: 2/17/2020 9:30 am Pacific Time
As we are still working through the extremely complex factors and decisions of itinerary planning, no cancellations for cruises with departure dates beyond Feb. 29 have been announced at this time. We understand that our guests are eager to learn more about their departures, and we are assessing future cruise itineraries as quickly as possible. We will announce an update as soon as plans are finalized. Thank you for your understanding and patience.

https://www.hollandamerica.com/blog/ships/ms-westerdam/statement-regarding-westerdam-in-japan/?linkId=82516599

[Floridiana]

7 minutes ago, hal2008 said:

Only 20 people who visited onboard clinic were tested (and reliability is unknown)

 

The samples from these individuals were tested in the reputable lab of the Pasteur Institute in Phnom Penh.

 

I wonder whether the 'super spreaders' are like the woman I observed on a Princess ship with noro virus. The ocean was as flat as a mirror, but she touched every surface in the buffet, backs of several chairs, railing etc. The supervisor  had noticed her and followed her with his disinfectant rag and wiped everything she had touched. She never saw him. 

 

Other people sneeze across the table and cough into their hands instead of into a tissue or their elbow if not fast enough for a tissue. I see them all as 'super spreaders'. 

[hal2008]

4 hours ago, HALrunner said:

This update from HAL an hour ago on FB:

....On Feb. 10, 2020, all 2,257 passengers and crew were screened for illness including the taking of individual temperatures.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is all HAL did in the name of "screening".  3 days BEFORE arrival they took temperature!!!

HAL was very kneen on NOT finding anything.

 

Hopefully, no clusters will develop anywhere in the world thanks to Combodian PM, US govt admin and HAL.

[cruisemom42]

15 minutes ago, hal2008 said:

 

"screened for coronovirus" is as humbug as it gets.

Only tests that can confirm one way or other takes days.

So most likely this "screend for coronovirus" was most likely no temperature and not coughing while being checked - type of screening!!

 

The rRT-PCR test for coronavirus takes maybe as much as 30 minutes. Not days.

 

However, if the infection is at a very early stage, the viral load may be so low in an individual that the test does not detect it.

 

[hal2008]

6 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

The rRT-PCR test for coronavirus takes maybe as much as 30 minutes. Not days.

 

However, if the infection is at a very early stage, the viral load may be so low in an individual that the test does not detect it.

 

 

CDC website says 4 hours (but still much better than days)

So, why are people waiting 2-3 days for the results? Different tests being used?

 

In any case, dont think any of the pax disembarking from Westerdam (other than 20 mentioned) were given any proper coronovirus detecting diagnostic tests.

Edited February 17, 2020 by hal2008

[npcl]

1 hour ago, SeaHunt said:

 

I hope no one else is positive. I do worry about the Cambodian PM Hun Sen - in videos of him meeting with the passengers he shook the passengers hands and kissed cheeks in welcome - what a nightmare if HE develops symptoms. 🤔

 

 

 

On the other hand other reports said he "threatened to kick out any reporters or officials seen wearing protective face masks" so?

 

 

Considering that he had recently been in China, and wanted to travel to Wuhan, but was blocked by the Chinese, it might be more likely that he is passing the virus to the passengers.

[BarbarianPaul]

6 minutes ago, hal2008 said:

 

"screened for coronovirus" is as humbug as it gets.

Only tests that can confirm one way or other takes days.

So most likely this "screend for coronovirus" was most likely no temperature and not coughing while being checked - type of screening!!

Clearly, the onboard testing was a joke. HAL keeps using the phrase “over abundance of caution” in describing their actions. Well, where was that over abundance of caution when it came to allowing passengers, none of whom had gone through an actual test, to disembark, subsequently wonder around Sihanoukville, go to busy airports, and get on crowded planes? The only “over abundance” I’m seeing is one of self interest.

And it’s very hard for me to believe that a woman with the virus, freely moving about the ship, did not pass it on. 

 

 

[npcl]

Does anyone know the exact timeline from the time the ship arrived in Cambodia, passengers greeted to when the woman arrived in Malaysia?  It was indicated that she started feeling ill when she arrived there.  Just wondering how much time had passed from when the passengers first had the ability to get off the ship, until her symptoms.

Edited February 17, 2020 by npcl

[hal2008]

4 minutes ago, BarbarianPaul said:

Clearly, the onboard testing was a joke. HAL keeps using the phrase “over abundance of caution” in describing their actions. Well, where was that over abundance of caution when it came to allowing passengers, none of whom had gone through an actual test, to disembark, subsequently wonder around Sihanoukville, go to busy airports, and get on crowded planes? The only “over abundance” I’m seeing is one of self interest.

And it’s very hard for me to believe that a woman with the virus, freely moving about the ship, did not pass it on. 

 

 

 

especially when it is reported that a supervisor was concerned enough to follow her wiping surfaces that she was touching....

 

We all shud feel fortunate if no one else from westerdam develops COVID-19 (especially after dispersed in real world)

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, gphb said:

It seems this is very good news.

The latest paper from the Imperial/WHO/MRC group (Paper #5 at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ ) indicates that they see an epidemic doubling time of 7 days (how long it takes for the number of cases in a given epidemic to double) in the overall event and they model that 13.5% of those infected are what the media call "super-spreaders" and transmit at a rate 74x larger than the remaining infected individuals.   

It seemed an interesting paper that based all of their analysis on how the RNA is mutating in this virus across different patients which allows them to really trace its propagation over time, and the other good news was that it doesn't seem to be mutating any faster than any other similar virus, very slowly in fact in terms of changes per year.   The paper included a few caveats and while just published the last sample was from Feb 3 so a while ago, but overall this 74x difference really could explain how Diamond Princess and Westerdam might end up very differently indeed.  

 

 

 

Thanks, Good to know. The good news is that it is now Day 3 after the woman was discovered in KL. No other infected has been discovered. Plenty of test results have been returned.

[BarbarianPaul]

20 minutes ago, dado123456 said:

Update: 2/17/2020 9:30 am Pacific Time
As we are still working through the extremely complex factors and decisions of itinerary planning, no cancellations for cruises with departure dates beyond Feb. 29 have been announced at this time. We understand that our guests are eager to learn more about their departures, and we are assessing future cruise itineraries as quickly as possible. We will announce an update as soon as plans are finalized. Thank you for your understanding and patience.

https://www.hollandamerica.com/blog/ships/ms-westerdam/statement-regarding-westerdam-in-japan/?linkId=82516599

It’s not fair to the upcoming passengers to let these decisions drag on. Considering what’s happening in Asia, are folks taking these upcoming cruises being given the option to either reschedule or get a refund? I think we’d all be in agreement that would be the right thing to do.

[hal2008]

1 minute ago, npcl said:

Does anyone know the exact timeline from the time the ship arrived in Cambodia, passengers greeted to when the woman arrived in Malaysia?  It was indicated that she started feeling ill when she arrived there.  Just wondering how much time had passed from when the passengers first had the ability to get off the ship, until her symptoms.

 

"she started feeling ill after arrival" is propaganda by HAL.

 

Especially if reports of supervisor following her and wiping surfaces that she was touching are true...

[hal2008]

 

May be someone on this board will know better.

 

One of the post above as well as CDC website mention that rRT-PCR takes few hours.

 

Why is screening in Japan takes 2-3 days?

You wud assume that people being takem on the evacuation plane by USA wud get the best screening possible but 14 people were found during the transfer from bus to plane based on tests done 2-3 days ago.

 

Bit confused.

[dado123456]

12 minutes ago, hal2008 said:

following her and wiping surfaces that she was touching

It was on Princess ship if I'm not wrong.

[crystalspin]

The supervisor wiping down the surfaces was on a Princess ship under alert for Noro, not the 83yo positive tester on on the Westerdam. See post 1087 above. This is how rumors start!

 

Those saying how good it was that the Westerdam passengers got to visit the town and the beaches, have me puzzled. How is it good that people with unknown viral load, sharing ship-space with a known positive sick person, got to mingle with a population with no reported Covid cases?