RCL Stock

[Cruise5life]

Here’s a silly question.   If I sold now  I’ve gotten my OBC for a cruise in Dec.   would the cruise line know I’ve sold.     I bought at 39.00.  

[Wineaux007]

7 minutes ago, Cruise5life said:

Here’s a silly question.   If I sold now  I’ve gotten my OBC for a cruise in Dec.   would the cruise line know I’ve sold.     I bought at 39.00.  

Probably not.

[RJ257]

37 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

I bought at $25 as Covid hit but sold in the $50s. I should have held on.

You never get hurt taking a profit. I think you did the right thing. All stocks went down this week its not an RCL thing necessarily. A rally to the upside is due soon. It will be like the summer one most likely with more downside later and recession in 2023 or a bit later. Its just a nasty cycle and I hope the cruise lines can survive.

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, Cruise5life said:

Here’s a silly question.   If I sold now  I’ve gotten my OBC for a cruise in Dec.   would the cruise line know I’ve sold.     I bought at 39.00.  

NO

[exm]

On 9/23/2022 at 6:02 PM, grandgeezer said:

What do you consider all in, more than the 100 shares it takes to get the shareholder obc.

 

I have a nice chunk of cash waiting to be invested.

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, exm said:

 

I have a nice chunk of cash waiting to be invested.

If you stick it in RCL or any other cruise stock, you might have a long wait for any decent return. The $25,000,000,000 they have in debt will haunt them for a long time.

A nice chunk of cash is open to interpretation, to me it would be a minimum of $100,000. Anything less than that is pocket change.

[DirtyDawg]

On 9/22/2022 at 2:32 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

Consider that 12/19 pre-pandemic the market valued RCL at $40B ($12B debt + 209mm shares @ $136).  Today's value is $36B ($24B debt + 255mm shares @ $47).  After being shut down for almost two years having enterprise value of  business down only 10% isn't bad.  A $15 increase in stock price to $62 would get them back to the 12/19 level.  Stock was in $60's four months ago so if reports of strong bookings translate into positive cash flow and earnings could soon get it there again.

Many older issues of Royal's bonds are trading at significant discounts to par or 'book' value. The book value of Royal's debt may be $24B but the market value is less. 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, exm said:

 

I have a nice chunk of cash waiting to be invested.

Long or short? 

[exm]

On 9/25/2022 at 6:09 PM, grandgeezer said:

If you stick it in RCL or any other cruise stock, you might have a long wait for any decent return. The $25,000,000,000 they have in debt will haunt them for a long time.

A nice chunk of cash is open to interpretation, to me it would be a minimum of $100,000. Anything less than that is pocket change.

 

Yes, 6 figures. I do think within the next 12 months there's plenty of upside.

[grandgeezer]

39 minutes ago, exm said:

 

Yes, 6 figures. I do think within the next 12 months there's plenty of upside.

I think you are way to optimistic, this is the same mindset that popped up when it dropped below $20 over two years ago. Inflation is going crazy, and the so called recession has just got going. If this last too long, it could seriously harm the industry. Just recently they borrowed a couple billion dollars to pay off payments due in 2022 and 2023. They had to pay about 11% on the money, as in junk bonds, as they are considered a risk.

Think about it, all the ships are sailing, their occupancy is up, probably 80+%, and the stock is at $44.04, $96 below the all time high that paid $3.16 per share, annually in dividends.

[BermudaBound2014]

CCL released this morning and missed big. 

 

All three stocks are reacting negatively to the CCL ER.

 

RCL down 9%

NCL down 10%

CCL down 18%

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-third-131500116.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[dada2199cc]

CCL showed a positive EBITDA?  I'll buy another 100 shares, why not?

 

None of this matters until I need the money, and I'm probably 20 years from that point. 

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, dada2199cc said:

CCL showed a positive EBITDA?  I'll buy another 100 shares, why not?

 

None of this matters until I need the money, and I'm probably 20 years from that point. 

 

A positive EBITDA because they diluted another 1.5 Billion. 

 

Still room to fall IMO.

[dada2199cc]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

A positive EBITDA because they diluted another 1.5 Billion. 

 

Still room to fall IMO.

 

I don't really try to time markets -- dollar cost average over 31 years of investing puts me way ahead of my peers and colleagues.  

 

But my incomes always do better in recessions (which we've obviously been in for awhile) so if I have extra play money, I always like to put it towards industries I use.  I cruise WAY more during recessions, so what's the risk over 20 years of potential growth?

 

I don't foresee them going BK -- and it's not like it's going to be money I'm taking from living expenses.   No gamble here, not really.

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, dada2199cc said:

I don't foresee them going BK -- and it's not like it's going to be money I'm taking from living expenses.   No gamble here, not really.

 

 

I believe Ch 11 is on the table, but if I was a young investor like you, I might take a chance. As a retired Gen Z, I'm holding this short for the quick win. 

[dada2199cc]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

I believe Ch 11 is on the table, but if I was a young investor like you, I might take a chance. As a retired Gen Z, I'm holding this short for the quick win. 

 

I'm 48 -- retired from employment in 2015!  Now my incomes are mostly passive (mostly), so I'm not that young.

 

I don't short anything, anymore.  Too many friends from the past jumping off buildings because of overleveraged shorts.  But for your sake, I hope you get a nice profit-taking!

 

My RCCL buys are pretty consistent: 2008 @ $16 or so, 2013 @ $25 or so, 2020 @ 37 or so, and I'll snag another batch at $40 or so.  Good enough for me.  We're not talking $100,000 in investments, lol.

[BermudaBound2014]

Oh... we are close to the same age. I had you pictured as a young whipper-snapper ;-). 

 

I purchased shorts in July of 2021 in all three cruise companies. Normally I shy away from shorts because it's the only think you can lose to infinity; but IMO the writing has been on the wall here. I only short companies I feel like I have a very good pulse on. Cruising has been a hobby of mine since the mid 80's and this short investment has been very lucrative.

 

The rest of my portfolio has seen tough times in 2022 🙂 

 

 

 

 

[bucfan2]

25 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I purchased shorts in July of 2021 in all three cruise companies.  

 

 

 

 

Assume you took a  ‘short position’?  Never heard of ‘purchasing a short’, as there is nothing to purchase. (Perhaps I’m more ignorant to my own investing than I realize).

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, bucfan2 said:

Assume you took a  ‘short position’?  Never heard of ‘purchasing a short’, as there is nothing to purchase. (Perhaps I’m more ignorant to my own investing than I realize).

 

I consider it a "purchase: since there is money to lose; but my grammar could be better.

[NightOne]

10 minutes ago, bucfan2 said:

Assume you took a  ‘short position’?  Never heard of ‘purchasing a short’, as there is nothing to purchase. (Perhaps I’m more ignorant to my own investing than I realize).

 

It's legalized gambling. Shorting is not "investing". IDGAF what anyone says. It should be illegal. 😉

 

[grandgeezer]

On 9/23/2022 at 12:41 PM, exm said:

If this dips below $40, I'll be all-in.

It’s below $39, you must be all in, unless it’s just all talk.

[dada2199cc]

4 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

It's legalized gambling. Shorting is not "investing". IDGAF what anyone says. It should be illegal. 😉

 

 

Actually, shorts help make the market and I am thankful for them.

 

Plus, some folks earn a little interest off of lending their shares to short sellers.

 

 

[bucfan2]

1 minute ago, dada2199cc said:

 some folks earn a little interest off of lending their shares to short sellers.

 

 

And a ton of $ selling them to someone that needs to cover when they can’t get out….and yes, it happens. 

[dada2199cc]

16 minutes ago, bucfan2 said:

And a ton of $ selling them to someone that needs to cover when they can’t get out….and yes, it happens. 

 

Yeah I've done pretty well when Schwab reached out to me about putting my shares (of other stock) up for lending.  They pay between 30% and 70% out to the shareholder from their share lending program -- which is nice income for honestly zero risk.

 

Wish I could mark ALL my stock as lendable!

[NightOne]

23 minutes ago, dada2199cc said:

 

Actually, shorts help make the market and I am thankful for them.

 

Plus, some folks earn a little interest off of lending their shares to short sellers.

 

 

 

You'll never convince me. LOL 

 

Shorting is the exact opposite of investing. 🙂

 

BTW, you never e-mailed me about your price tracking app. So sad. 😞