RCL Stock

[molly361]

10 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I didn't know it was back.

It just got here 

[BermudaBound2014]

Oh boy... CCL offered another 1 billion in common stock after close and dropped 10%. RCL and NCL dropped 5% after the announcement. Tomorrow could prove to have lots of movement. T

 

Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE/LSE: CCL; NYSE: CUK), today announced that Carnival Corporation (the "Company") has commenced an underwritten public offering of $1,000,000,000 of shares of common stock of the Company. The Company intends to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to $150,000,000 of additional shares of common stock of the Company. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which could include addressing 2023 debt maturities.

Read more at: https://www.lelezard.com/en/news-20486138.html

[DirtyDawg]

On 7/18/2022 at 6:43 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

And with today's news and the CDC stepping away, it might be time to consider flipping my shorts. This is good day for the cruise industry!!

Closing out your shorts is likely a prudent (and profitable) move. Congrats by the why. I'm not considering going long just yet even with some speculative 'play' money. The Macro head winds combined with RCL's financial leverage and the limited upside for the stock are making me take a wait and see attitude. I think the upside for this stock is limited because if and when the stock goes back to $60 or $90 per share we could see a huge new equity issue done to repair the balance sheet. That would be good for the corporation's financial health in the long term but it would also massively dilute the equity shareholders and limit the upside for the stock. 

 

Edited July 21, 2022 by DirtyDawg

[Sunshine3601]

On 7/13/2022 at 7:40 AM, John&LaLa said:

 

I just did a screenshot of the transaction screen. No need to hide anything😁

 

On a related note, just got an email saying no OBC will be applied to a casino comp cruise

We got the same email.  Bummer😔

[exm]

It's amazing how all 3 cruise stocks move hand-in-hand. I guess WS assumes that RCL and NCL follows CCL?

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, DirtyDawg said:

Closing out your shorts is likely a prudent (and profitable) move. Congrats by the why. I'm not considering going long just yet even with some speculative 'play' money. The Macro head winds combined with RCL's financial leverage and the limited upside for the stock are making me take a wait and see attitude. I think the upside for this stock is limited because if and when the stock goes back to $60 or $90 per share we could see a huge new equity issue done to repair the balance sheet. That  which would be good for the corporation's financial health in the long term but it would also massively dilute the equity shareholders and limit the upside for the stock. 

 

Thank you. I didn't close the shorts yet. With the news of CCL offering the common stock I've made a good bit of cash overnight. CCL is down nearly 15% while RCL and NCL are down around 10%. Like you said, I do think there is still room to move down but I don't want to be greedy either. 

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, exm said:

It's amazing how all 3 cruise stocks move hand-in-hand. I guess WS assumes that RCL and NCL follows CCL?

 

Well, all three balance sheets are upside down and the industry as a whole is struggling to say the least. But yes, they all move in sync and have since the pandemic. It makes things a bit easier for the day traders lol

[DirtyDawg]

10 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Oh boy... CCL offered another 1 billion in common stock after close and dropped 10%. RCL and NCL dropped 5% after the announcement. Tomorrow could prove to have lots of movement. T

 

Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE/LSE: CCL; NYSE: CUK), today announced that Carnival Corporation (the "Company") has commenced an underwritten public offering of $1,000,000,000 of shares of common stock of the Company. The Company intends to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to $150,000,000 of additional shares of common stock of the Company. The Company expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which could include addressing 2023 debt maturities.

Read more at: https://www.lelezard.com/en/news-20486138.html

Now that's a bad sign. Corporate Finance 101 says sell equity when the price is high, not low. 

[DirtyDawg]

7 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Thank you. I didn't close the shorts yet. With the news of CCL offering the common stock I've made a good bit of cash overnight. CCL is down nearly 15% while RCL and NCL are down around 10%. Like you said, I do think there is still room to move down but I don't want to be greedy either. 

I managed money professionally for 30ish years and every time I got too greedy Mr./Mrs. Market handed me my head! Take the singles and doubles and the home runs will take care of themselves!

[DirtyDawg]

20 minutes ago, exm said:

It's amazing how all 3 cruise stocks move hand-in-hand. I guess WS assumes that RCL and NCL follows CCL?

Not very amazing at all. For most industries, the stocks of the various company's stocks move in sync with each other because Macro forces have the same affect on each company in the industry. The differences occur due to various qualities of management, gaining or loosing market share, and individual company financial leverage. For the cruise industry they all have similar weak financials (to varying degrees), fairly stable market shares, and the quality of management, based on reading the posts around here, seem to be equally as bad. 😉

[eaflorida]

Cruise stocks are down today because Carnival announced yesterday after the close, that they are issuing another 1 billion dollars worth of new stock. The cruise lines have a TON of debt and have already issued millions of new shares since the pandemic started. The earnings per share are going downhill quickly with so many additional shares issued. Financially speaking, the cruise stocks are literally a shell of what they once were pre-pandemic. I honestly believe that if there was any more cruise no sale orders in the future, the cruise lines probably would BK with such massive debt.

[Baron Barracuda]

RCL will report earnings in just two weeks on August 3rd.  Suggest anyone tempted to invest hold off until then to hear what Jason Liberty has to say.  Three months ago Liberty was upbeat on the outlook for '22 and '23, expecting to turn cash flow positive soon and maybe turn a profit in q4.  Interested to hear if he has tempered his enthusiasm.  

 

As far as potential stock issuance, going into q2 common equity for RCL was down to $4B after losing $1B+ in each of the prior two quarters.  Another big loss would almost certainly force them to issue a large amount of stock, likely at prices lower than today. 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

RCL will report earnings in just two weeks on August 3rd.  Suggest anyone tempted to invest hold off until then to hear what Jason Liberty has to say.  

 

And NCL will report just a few days after RCL. With the Feds reporting interest rates before both. I agree, avoid temptation for at least a few more weeks. I would be shocked if RCL and NCL don't have to follow suit and dilute also. 

Edited July 21, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[molly361]

Is the 2nd Quarter Earnings call today?

[Biker19]

Just now, molly361 said:

Is the 2nd Quarter Earnings call today?

10 AM tomorrow.

[BermudaBound2014]

And then NCL releases August 2nd. Typically all three cruise lines move in sync. 

[molly361]

8 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

10 AM tomorrow.

Curious what the answer will be on continued testing.  Guessing someone will be asking about that and vaccines

[exm]

On 7/21/2022 at 4:37 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

And NCL will report just a few days after RCL. With the Feds reporting interest rates before both. I agree, avoid temptation for at least a few more weeks. I would be shocked if RCL and NCL don't have to follow suit and dilute also. 

 

I'm going all-in this afternoon after the FED's decision hoping the RCL numbers will be good. We have soon 10% bumps before. Take your profit and wait for NCL's numbers.

 

 

[exm]

19 hours ago, exm said:

 

I'm going all-in this afternoon after the FED's decision hoping the RCL numbers will be good. We have soon 10% bumps before. Take your profit and wait for NCL's numbers.

 

 

 

This should be a good day, hopefully we'll go up by 10%+.

[nelblu]

22 hours ago, molly361 said:

Curious what the answer will be on continued testing.  Guessing someone will be asking about that and vaccines

There's a couple of threads taht mandatory testing for sails longer than 6 nights.  Makes no sense.

[Biker19]

Royal Caribbean Group said it now expects a loss in the second half of the year, citing increases in fuel costs, interest rates and foreign-exchange rates.

 

In May, the cruise company said it expected to return to net profit for the second half of the year. The company did forecast a return to profitability, on an adjusted basis, for the third quarter. That would mark its first profitable quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent government regulations cooled demand for cruising.

 

For the current quarter, the company said it expects revenue between $2.9 billion and $3 billion on adjusted earnings of 5 cents a share to 25 cents a share. The guidance is based on current currency-exchange rates, fuel costs and interest rates.

 

The company said it expects about $319 million in fuel costs for the third quarter, net of hedging.

 

Booking volumes for the recently ended quarter averaged 30% above comparable 2019 levels, with even greater strength in July, the company said. Load factors, or occupancy, in the second half of the year are still below historical levels and are expected to finish at about 95% in the third quarter.

 

Royal Caribbean Now Expects Loss in Second Half of 2022 - MarketWatch

[Biker19]

Stock is up about 4% at the open.

[exm]

It hit 8%, currently at 5%.

[BermudaBound2014]

People are buying these headlines today:

 

"Royal Caribbean sees return to profitability in second quarter"

"Royal Caribbean's loss narrows as cruise bookings rebound"

 

But the devil is in the details. Interest rates and fuel cost continue to hinder any long range progress:

"Royal Caribbean Now Expects Loss in Second Half of 2022"

 

 

[John&LaLa]

Facts and Financials have little to do with cruise line stock prices😉😇