NCLH Stock Price

[Karaboudjan]

17 minutes ago, saltsandknit said:

If the Vista is sailing with 2600 passengers the number would be around 36. They could be close. I’m not sure of the actual passenger count Carnival is pretty tight on info right now

I read the threshold number on a cruise news page. I will look when I am home from work. 

On the CDC status page there is a link just below the table of ships which takes you to another page that describes the thresholds.  However, there are no thresholds mentioned for Red status, nor do there appear to be any criteria listed for automatically stopping a cruise.  So, maybe it is more of a judgement call.  For example, I would think that 20 cases on Day 1 is different than 20 cases on Day 5.

[saltsandknit]

It’s amazing how fluid everything is right now

[At Sea At Peace]

31 minutes ago, saltsandknit said:

It’s amazing how fluid everything is right now

 

Yep.

 

And the viscosity is rapidly thinning.

[trex-de]

1 hour ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Yep.

 

And the viscosity is rapidly thinning.

Let me guess. You watch paint dry for a living.  I am one  who does…

[complawyer]

6 hours ago, trex-de said:

Let me guess. You watch paint dry for a living.  I am one  who does…

really doesnt matter much to me. we bought 100 shares at $7.00 per, right after cruise cancellations started. i can hold onto the shares for the next 20 years. 

[saltsandknit]

19 hours ago, Karaboudjan said:

On the CDC status page there is a link just below the table of ships which takes you to another page that describes the thresholds.  However, there are no thresholds mentioned for Red status, nor do there appear to be any criteria listed for automatically stopping a cruise.  So, maybe it is more of a judgement call.  For example, I would think that 20 cases on Day 1 is different than 20 cases on Day 5.

I re-read that this morning. The test sailings have some thresholds listed and it may be where the numbers came from. I can not find the article I read earlier. Here is the link if it works I am at work and posting from a phone. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/management/technical-instructions-for-cruise-ships.html#green-ship

[Karaboudjan]

1 hour ago, saltsandknit said:

I re-read that this morning. The test sailings have some thresholds listed and it may be where the numbers came from. I can not find the article I read earlier. Here is the link if it works I am at work and posting from a phone. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/management/technical-instructions-for-cruise-ships.html#green-ship

The piece that is not clear to me is if NCL has to do 'Simulated' sailings or not.  I think those may only be for the lines that are choosing not to go with 95%+ vaccinated.  RCCL ships sometimes show 'Simulated' or 'Approved for simulated' but NCL, Carnival and Celebrity ships never do.  So the NCL 'test' sailings like the Encore did may not be required by the CDC and would be considered Restricted for purposes of status.

[saltsandknit]

39 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

The piece that is not clear to me is if NCL has to do 'Simulated' sailings or not.  I think those may only be for the lines that are choosing not to go with 95%+ vaccinated.  RCCL ships sometimes show 'Simulated' or 'Approved for simulated' but NCL, Carnival and Celebrity ships never do.  So the NCL 'test' sailings like the Encore did may not be required by the CDC and would be considered Restricted for purposes of status.

Sailings 95% or more vaccinated passengers and 98% crew do not have to do test cruises. With NCL sailing 100% no test cruises are necessary. So you are correct. It’s the threshold for the color chart that I am interested in but I can’t find the article that listed percentages. The CDC doesn’t really specify that I can find. 

[Karaboudjan]

1 hour ago, saltsandknit said:

Sailings 95% or more vaccinated passengers and 98% crew do not have to do test cruises. With NCL sailing 100% no test cruises are necessary. So you are correct. It’s the threshold for the color chart that I am interested in but I can’t find the article that listed percentages. The CDC doesn’t really specify that I can find. 

So you are looking for some threshold other than the 0.1% for Restricted that is listed in the Technical Instructions doc that you posted the link to?  It seems odd that there would be more thresholds that are not listed on that page. 

[BermudaBound2014]

@Karaboudjan and @saltsandknit do either of you have the threshold number for code red? That number seems to be the most important, yet appears to be missing on every CDC page I have read.

[Karaboudjan]

36 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@Karaboudjan and @saltsandknit do either of you have the threshold number for code red? That number seems to be the most important, yet appears to be missing on every CDC page I have read.

My take is that it is not a simple number at that point.  They list a lot of factors which would be considered. 

[saltsandknit]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@Karaboudjan and @saltsandknit do either of you have the threshold number for code red? That number seems to be the most important, yet appears to be missing on every CDC page I have read.

I have not and I can not find the article I read that had the number at 1.4 this seems to have come out of thin air. Reading the CDC information leads me to believe the number doesn't matter as long as the outbreak seems to be controlled.

[BermudaBound2014]

I found this article interesting. 

 

I think the numbers/color codes are almost meaningless without specifics, especially since there is no distinction between Covid and CLI.  To me, the obvious question that remains unanswered is.... "What happens when a ship goes red?"

 

In the case of Carnival Vista, since several of the Covid positive crew worked in the casino doesn't that mean that transmission took place? According to this article the Vista should have been coded red but it is still listed as just yellow.

 

"And while no ships are currently designated as red, it’s unclear what number or percentage of passengers and crew must become infected to trigger red status.

On a separate web page, the CDC explains that multiple factors will be reviewed with cruise lines before a ship is designated red. Generally, a ship must have sustained transmission of COVID-19 or CLI [cold-like illness] to be designated red."

 

27 cruise ships have reported COVID-19 infections. Why can’t we find out how many? (msn.com)

 

 

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

As expected, news of the 27 positive cases onboard Vista hit the Finance news last Friday. I would expect NCL stock will respond accordingly tomorrow morning, although after hours trading has been pretty stable all weekend. All of the big three have been moving together for the most part so whatever happens to CCL stock likely happens to NCL and RCL stock.

 

This little blurb was interesting. First I've seen 2% printed anywhere as a threshold.

 

"Because the number of positive cases was under 2 percent, guests were able to disembark and "conduct shore excursions as per normal.""

27 People Test Positive for COVID-19 on Carnival Cruise Ship Carrying Nearly 4,500 (yahoo.com)

 

[Karaboudjan]

18 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I found this article interesting. 

 

I think the numbers/color codes are almost meaningless without specifics, especially since there is no distinction between Covid and CLI.  To me, the obvious question that remains unanswered is.... "What happens when a ship goes red?"

 

In the case of Carnival Vista, since several of the Covid positive crew worked in the casino doesn't that mean that transmission took place? According to this article the Vista should have been coded red but it is still listed as just yellow.

 

"And while no ships are currently designated as red, it’s unclear what number or percentage of passengers and crew must become infected to trigger red status.

On a separate web page, the CDC explains that multiple factors will be reviewed with cruise lines before a ship is designated red. Generally, a ship must have sustained transmission of COVID-19 or CLI [cold-like illness] to be designated red."

 

27 cruise ships have reported COVID-19 infections. Why can’t we find out how many? (msn.com)

 

 

 

 

 

If they managed to quickly contain it at the 27 cases then maybe that was not enough to be considered 'sustained.'  I'm sure it is also a big consideration that nobody was more than very mildly symptomatic.

 

I don't know what happens when a ship goes Red either.  

[At Sea At Peace]

Financial update finally released via SEC filing (press release 8K).

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000117184322001310/exh_991.htm

 

Not going to sugar coat it, even without the events fomenting in Europe, there are so many 'red flags' in this filing.

 

The primary concern is 'liquidity.

 

First, their liquidity is $2.7B, of which $1.0B is in a credit commitment that concludes on August 15, 2022.  That will leave $1.7B of liquidity should such not be replaced.

 

Liquidity, Cash Burn and Financial Recovery Plan

The Company continues to take proactive measures to enhance liquidity and financial flexibility in the current environment and optimize its balance sheet. As of December 31, 2021, the Company’s total debt position was $12.4 billion and the Company’s liquidity was $2.7 billion, consisting of cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments and a $1.0 billion commitment available through August 15, 2022.

 

Then, there is their life-blood reliance on continued 'customer advances.

 

The Company’s advance ticket sales balance was $1.8 billion

 

In essence, they have no net debt or capital backed liquidity at all.

 

Then, there is the 'cash burn per month 'increasing.

 

The Company's monthly average cash burn for the fourth quarter of 2021 was approximately $345 million, slightly below the prior estimate of approximately $350 million. Looking ahead, the Company expects first quarter 2022 monthly average cash burn to increase to approximately $390 million driven by the continued phased relaunch of additional vessels.

 

So, it is a mess.

 

Global concerns now expanded beyond a crippling virus to unknown consequences even if resolved early.

 

Witnessing an already 50% increase in the most recent fuel costs per metric ton (also RCL and CCL) and using up most of the "hedging fuel derivatives" in a 30-40 window (also RCL and CCL), it just is looking so ominous for NCL to be able to sustain continuing going concern operations for 12-months.

 

They are required by SEC regulations to state such in the formal 10Q's and 10K's whether or not management believes they can support the assertion that they are a going concern 12-months out from the filing of such SEC disclosure.

 

There are consequences for not doing it, if such concern should be cautioned, but the going concern ability negative disclosure is the Kiss of D.... for creditors and cruise bookings.

 

They are essentially burning only other peoples money.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[mscdivina2016]

57 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

Financial update finally released via SEC filing (press release 8K).

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000117184322001310/exh_991.htm

 

Not going to sugar coat it, even without the events fomenting in Europe, there are so many 'red flags' in this filing.

 

The primary concern is 'liquidity.

 

First, their liquidity is $2.7B, of which $1.0B is in a credit commitment that concludes on August 15, 2022.  That will leave $1.7B of liquidity should such not be replaced.

 

Liquidity, Cash Burn and Financial Recovery Plan

The Company continues to take proactive measures to enhance liquidity and financial flexibility in the current environment and optimize its balance sheet. As of December 31, 2021, the Company’s total debt position was $12.4 billion and the Company’s liquidity was $2.7 billion, consisting of cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments and a $1.0 billion commitment available through August 15, 2022.

 

Then, there is their life-blood reliance on continued 'customer advances.

 

The Company’s advance ticket sales balance was $1.8 billion

 

In essence, they have no net debt or capital backed liquidity at all.

 

Then, there is the 'cash burn per month 'increasing.

 

The Company's monthly average cash burn for the fourth quarter of 2021 was approximately $345 million, slightly below the prior estimate of approximately $350 million. Looking ahead, the Company expects first quarter 2022 monthly average cash burn to increase to approximately $390 million driven by the continued phased relaunch of additional vessels.

 

So, it is a mess.

 

Global concerns now expanded beyond a crippling virus to unknown consequences even if resolved early.

 

Witnessing an already 50% increase in the most recent fuel costs per metric ton (also RCL and CCL) and using up most of the "hedging fuel derivatives" in a 30-40 window (also RCL and CCL), it just is looking so ominous for NCL to be able to sustain continuing going concern operations for 12-months.

 

They are required by SEC regulations to state such in the formal 10Q's and 10K's whether or not management believes they can support the assertion that they are a going concern 12-months out from the filing of such SEC disclosure.

 

There are consequences for not doing it, if such concern should be cautioned, but the going concern ability negative disclosure is the Kiss of D.... for creditors and cruise bookings.

 

They are essentially burning only other peoples money.

 

 

 

 

Wow

Looks like a ship that has taken on water and for some reason has not sunk.

[Crazy planning mom]

This is not good.  I read on another website that their chance of bankruptcy within the next 2 years is 72%. https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/NCLH.VI/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy Would you keep your 2022 sailing?  We have a bucket list saiiling scheduled for October.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Crazy planning mom

[PUNKT2]

52 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

This is not good.  I read on another website that their chance of bankruptcy within the next 2 years is 72%. https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/NCLH.VI/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy Would you keep your 2022 sailing?  We have a bucket list saiiling scheduled for October.

Given their model is only based on "current economic and market conditions" I'd hardly say that's an accurate figure. Enjoy your 2022 sailing!

[complawyer]

i dont believe in doom and gloom, and if ncl has financial problems, i would assume that rcl and carnival are facing similar situations. also, if ncl were that deep inthe hole, i doubt that they would have committed millions and millions of dollars to launch the prima later this year and the viva next year

[oteixeira]

And we finish green, so I think what you are seeing is institutions are buying up all the shares sold by panicked sellers.  There is nothing wrong with NCL, they are moving out debt and getting better rates and more time when they move it (as they are no longer in full shutdown, so they are seen as less of a risk), they have bookings as strong or stronger then their best season in 2019 depending on how far out you look (near term was effected by omicron).  

There is no bad news here.

[ChiefMateJRK]

2 hours ago, Crazy planning mom said:

I read on another website that their chance of bankruptcy within the next 2 years is 72%

I smell 💩

[At Sea At Peace]

24 minutes ago, complawyer said:

i dont believe in doom and gloom, and if ncl has financial problems, i would assume that rcl and carnival are facing similar situations. also, if ncl were that deep inthe hole, i doubt that they would have committed millions and millions of dollars to launch the prima later this year and the viva next year

 

Not a believer in doom and gloom, nor overexcitement and hype, just the facts.  The facts are that the cruise industry has been really tasked to stay alive, financially, through the pandemics, the politics, inflation and energy costs, and now some unexpected world events.

 

The cruise industry does not have an open wallet, they have financed and leveraged everything that they have, and quite frankly their own 8K just released highlights these 'risks' which are similar for RCL and CCL.

 

They are all having 'financial problems,' and facing similar situations.

 

They floated out Prima, well, what else to you want them to do with it?  It was first ordered (one of four ships) in February of 2017 and was completed in 2021 by the shipyard.  They have in place ship financing (more debt).  The same for the next up the Viva.

 

Their commitment of millions and millions to launch Prima are from other peoples money, customer advances.

 

🤞

[At Sea At Peace]

33 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

And we finish green, so I think what you are seeing is institutions are buying up all the shares sold by panicked sellers.  There is nothing wrong with NCL, they are moving out debt and getting better rates and more time when they move it (as they are no longer in full shutdown, so they are seen as less of a risk), they have bookings as strong or stronger then their best season in 2019 depending on how far out you look (near term was effected by omicron).  

There is no bad news here.

 

Painting the tape is a practice in an impending bear market during financial uncertainty.  It makes people (retail) 'feel better.'  The role of institutions is likely minimal to the out of market objectives of the FED.

 

There is a lot wrong with NCL, RCL and CCL.  Almost two years of losing billions and billions per year, burning cash $300, $400 $500 million per month during shutdown, and resumption, is simply UNSUSTAINABLE to a reasonably prudent person.

 

Yes, there are exchanging cheaper debt for early debt maturity on distressed debt (why were they junk bonds and distressed?) and they've paid BILLIONS to buy their way out of debt obligations and conversion walk-away costs.  GAAP requires such to be called "interest" and such amounts are disclosed in the SEC filings.

 

It is a good thing that "bookings" "out" are really good.  They need those customer advances for future cruises to pay yesterday and todays bills.

 

🤨

Edited February 24, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[oteixeira]

10 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Painting the tape is a practice in an impending bear market during financial uncertainty.  It makes people (retail) 'feel better.'  The role of institutions is likely minimal to the out of market objectives of the FED.

 

There is a lot wrong with NCL, RCL and CCL.  Almost two years of losing billions and billions per year, burning cash $300, $400 $500 million per month during shutdown, and resumption, is simply UNSUSTAINABLE to a reasonably prudent person.

 

Yes, there are exchanging cheaper debt for early debt maturity on distressed debt (why were they junk bonds and distressed?) and they've paid BILLIONS to buy their way out of debt obligations and conversion walk-away costs.  GAAP requires such to be called "interest" and such amounts are disclosed in the SEC filings.

 

It is a good thing that "bookings" "out" are really good.  They need those customer advances for future cruises to pay yesterday and todays bills.

 

🤨

We have had these conversations in the past (if I remember correctly).  I think the best way to say this is our opinions differ greatly on how these companies are doing.  Have a great day, and I hope you are betting with your research, which in this case would be shorting all 3 lines heavily.  Good luck to you, and I hope you wish me the same in my investing!