NCLH Stock Price

[njhorseman]

15 hours ago, Trimone said:

What happens to shares if NCLH goes into administration? I think you call it section 11 in the states 

A reorganization under the bankruptcy laws is called Chapter 11, and this article provides a pretty good explanation. Basically, stockholders will find the value of their holdings to be greatly diminished:

https://www.findlaw.com/bankruptcy/chapter-13/corporate-bankruptcy-what-every-investor-should-know.html#:~:text=Investors should understand that existing,dividends during a bankruptcy proceeding.

[jbcallender]

I wish now I had bought in at $12 or $13.

[At Sea At Peace]

Yikes, 'thar she blows.

 

Got down to as low as $21.28 on volume of 17 million in an hour and three quarters (about its average daily volume).

 

Looking like it's going to be a really short summer of limited sailings and capacities and a nail biter for the fall and winter.

[BermudaBound2014]

@At Sea At Peace I absolutely hate betting against her, but short is the game right now. 

 

In fairness to NCL, I'm selling lots of stock short at the moment. NCLH isn't the only thing struggling.

Edited July 19, 2021 by BermudaBound2014

[TrulyBlonde]

52 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

Yikes, 'thar she blows.

 

Got down to as low as $21.28 on volume of 17 million in an hour and three quarters (about its average daily volume).

 

Looking like it's going to be a really short summer of limited sailings and capacities and a nail biter for the fall and winter.

What a sad mess 😞.  

[At Sea At Peace]

20 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@At Sea At Peace I absolutely hate betting against her, but short is the game right now. 

 

In fairness to NCL, I'm selling lots of stock short at the moment. NCLH isn't the only thing struggling.

 

@BermudaBound2014  Yep.  I believe there is a lot more on the way down. 

 

I really don't know if there is anything at all that they can do.  We'll be into August, the summer is almost gone.  There are no signs of revenue sailing for capacity of the fleet(s) or any ship.  The question is, can they make 2-years (since March of 2020) instead of the 1-year we first discussed.

 

They do have significant liquidity (cash) and they do have some waivers on their debt covenants, but it cost them over $600 million (recorded as interest expense) to settle their private convertible debt.  However, I am concerned more about SEC Topic 9A compliance (Covid disclosures and "Going Concern" representation (for a period of 12 months from the date of issuance of the quarterly 10-Q's or the annual 10-K) than the covenants. 

 

Also, if customers see financial warning, or increased cruise cancellations, they may have to eat into their cash for about $1.25 billion if FCC's become not preferred to cash refunds and new cruise deposits and final payments dry up.

 

I don't see NCL making it.  I see Quinn Emanuel, their counsel v. Florida, as their restructuring firm (#15 bankruptcy firm) down the road and equity simply eliminated with the creditors committee comprised of the big risk hedge funds taking control of the reorganized company.

 

Although 99.9% believe that there will be $-0- assistance from the US government; you never know.

[BermudaBound2014]

@At Sea At Peace ... Sadly, I'm shorting all three. Kills me to bet against an industry I love, but if they can overcome the virus the real long term challenge is Johnny Public perception. It's bleak. 

[oteixeira]

All travel is taking it this past 2 weeks, and it has more to do with Delta being talked about in the news then anything any of these companies are doing.  It has gotten so loud (the Delta narrative) that it is now taking out most of the market, as people are betting we dip into a new lock down and recession (which I am not predicting, or hoping for).  I lost a LOT of my gains in the past few weeks, but I am just going to hold and wait, because when this comes out the other side (which I predict it will, no bankruptcy) I will be rewarded for it.

[BermudaBound2014]

@oteixeiratime will tell. A buy out would help the stock ;-).  In the meantime, cruise lines are hemorrhaging., Short has been the right side of the trade for a]while. I don't expect that will change before the levy breaks.

[BermudaBound2014]

Canada just announced they are opening their boarder to the USA August 7th, yet my travel portfolio didn't budge. I would have expected a lil' pop. Today's money is betting against the industry 😞

 

Canada will finally open its borders, first to the US | CNN

[At Sea At Peace]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

Canada just announced they are opening their boarder to the USA August 7th, yet my travel portfolio didn't budge. I would have expected a lil' pop. Today's money is betting against the industry 😞

 

Canada will finally open its borders, first to the US | CNN

 

The "cruise industry" and any industry that got hurt since 3/2020.  Hospitality holdco's with big city properties down as much or more than cruise lines.

 

I must admit, although vaccinated and having enjoyed our kids and four grandkids over the past 2 months for the first time 'since, I'm beyond the 6-month Pfizer "safe" current projection and anxiously awaiting something better than Pfizer's 60% of antibodies recent statement at such time period.

 

Hopefully, we get answers in the next month or so.  But I'll be serious, I'm taking more precautions 'again' until I learn what protection I have at the current time.  I doubt we make our final payment on our B2B MSC YC cruises on Seashore the first 2-weeks of December if answers are evidenced by September 1st payment date.

[BermudaBound2014]

Second Quarter financials will be released at 7:00 am on Friday, August 6th. Conference call to follow at 10:00 a.m. (EST)

 

Shorting has been pretty stable last couple days. I expect that will change 😉

[At Sea At Peace]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Second Quarter financials will be released at 7:00 am on Friday, August 6th. Conference call to follow at 10:00 a.m. (EST)

 

Shorting has been pretty stable last couple days. I expect that will change 😉

 

I wonder how many times 'the unexpected and continuing financial losses caused by the State of Florida' will be mentioned?  😲

[ziggyuk]

On 7/23/2021 at 4:09 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

Second Quarter financials will be released at 7:00 am on Friday, August 6th. Conference call to follow at 10:00 a.m. (EST)

 

Shorting has been pretty stable last couple days. I expect that will change 😉

 

And is that still working out for you?

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, ziggyuk said:

 

And is that still working out for you?

absolutely! A nice run-. We anticipated  how the market would respond to the pep rally.  The big 3 fell right in line. 
 

Interesting side note. Ncl was the only cruise co willing to make predictions for 21Q3. They have cash on hand but this is truly a race against time. Buckle up buttercup:)

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

Interesting stock development: 27 people just tested positive on Carnival Vista. It's pretty safe to assume NCHL stock will respond also. All 27 were vaccinated. 

 

"All 27 were vaccinated, had mild or no symptoms, and were in isolation, according to the statement. The tourism board said 99.98% of the ship's crew was vaccinated, as well as 96.5% of its passengers."

 

27 people aboard Carnival cruise test positive for COVID-19 (msn.com)

 

[DCGuy64]

1 passenger out of 3,000 doesn't seem so bad (.03%). 26 crew out of 1,400, that's a different story, but still only 1.85%). I wonder if it's due to their allegedly cramped quarters.

 

[saltsandknit]

30 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

1 passenger out of 3,000 doesn't seem so bad (.03%). 26 crew out of 1,400, that's a different story, but still only 1.85%). I wonder if it's due to their allegedly cramped quarters.

 

From what I have read 10 of the crew were from the casino. It makes sense as they would have the most contact with passengers in a closed space and close contact with each other. 

[BermudaBound2014]

44 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

1 passenger out of 3,000 doesn't seem so bad (.03%). 26 crew out of 1,400, that's a different story, but still only 1.85%). I wonder if it's due to their allegedly cramped quarters.

 

 

I don't think the numbers are terrible either which is why I put this information in the stock thread instead of starting a new thread and evoking panic lol. This information does directly impact stock and the stocks are responding (as expected).

 

However; the more important question for everyone who loves cruising is..... "what is the elusive threshold number before whole ship quarantine???  I can't find this number listed anywhere. As a whole number, as a %, nothing. Nodda. Totally silent. Even the CDC hasn't disclosed. 

 

This is what we want to avoid at all cost.............

 

In a statement on their website, Carnival said should a "threshold" of COVID-19 be detected onboard, "the voyage will be ended, the ship returned to the port of embarkation," and "subsequent travel or return home may be restricted or delayed" for passengers.

Carnival Changes Mask Rules as Passengers Test Positive – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth (nbcdfw.com)

 

 

On a side note, the CDC moved Encore to yellow investigation status for Covid, so it appears Covid is on Encore right now. I've been saying this all along, 100% vaccination policy  is not going to keep the virus off the ship.

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by BermudaBound2014

[saltsandknit]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't think the numbers are terrible either which is why I put this information in the stock thread instead of starting a new thread and evoking panic lol. This information does directly impact stock and the stocks are responding (as expected).

 

However; the more important question for everyone who loves cruising is..... "what is the elusive threshold number before whole ship quarantine???  I can't find this number listed anywhere. As a whole number, as a %, nothing. Nodda. Totally silent. Even the CDC hasn't disclosed. 

 

This is what we want to avoid at all cost.............

 

In a statement on their website, Carnival said should a "threshold" of COVID-19 be detected onboard, "the voyage will be ended, the ship returned to the port of embarkation," and "subsequent travel or return home may be restricted or delayed" for passengers.

Carnival Changes Mask Rules as Passengers Test Positive – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth (nbcdfw.com)

 

 

On a side note, the CDC moved Encore to yellow investigation status for Covid, so it appears Covid is on Encore right now. I've been saying this all along, 100% vaccination policy  is not going to keep the virus off the ship.

 

I read somewhere that the CDC threshold is 1.4% but I can find it now. It seems arbitrary at best

[BermudaBound2014]

8 minutes ago, saltsandknit said:

I read somewhere that the CDC threshold is 1.4% but I can find it now. It seems arbitrary at best

 

Thank you for sharing that. I'll dig around tonight and see if I can verify. In the meantime if you find your source I would appreciate it. 1.4% doesn't seem like a lot to go into a full ship quarantine. I suspect there will be more than 27 who test positive on Vista by the time today ends, so cross your fingers 😞

Edited August 13, 2021 by BermudaBound2014

[saltsandknit]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Thank you for sharing that. I'll dig around tonight and see if I can verify. In the meantime if you find your source I would appreciate it. 1.4% doesn't seem like a lot to go into a full ship quarantine. I suspect there will be more than 27 who test positive on Vista by the time today ends, so cross your fingers 😞

If the Vista is sailing with 2600 passengers the number would be around 36. They could be close. I’m not sure of the actual passenger count Carnival is pretty tight on info right now

I read the threshold number on a cruise news page. I will look when I am home from work. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by saltsandknit
More info

[fastpitchdad]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

 

 

On a side note, the CDC moved Encore to yellow investigation status for Covid, so it appears Covid is on Encore right now. I've been saying this all along, 100% vaccination policy  is not going to keep the virus off the ship.

 

 

It has been Yellow prior to sailing but it has been moved to orange. 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by fastpitchdad

[Karaboudjan]

11 minutes ago, saltsandknit said:

If the Vista is sailing with 2600 passengers the number would be around 36. They could be close. I’m not sure of the actual passenger count Carnival is pretty tight on info right now

I read the threshold number on a cruise news page. I will look when I am home from work. 

 

2 minutes ago, fastpitchdad said:

 

That is not true, it has been Yellow prior to sailing. 

Encore went to Yellow a few days ago.  Given the lag in getting the page updated I suspect the case was detected on the trial cruise.  I also believe it went directly to Yellow so that might mean a crew member.  This morning Encore was Green again, but is now Orange.

[fastpitchdad]

Just now, Karaboudjan said:

 

Encore went to Yellow a few days ago.  Given the lag in getting the page updated I suspect the case was detected on the trial cruise.  I also believe it went directly to Yellow so that might mean a crew member.  This morning Encore was Green again, but is now Orange.

 

Yeah I noticed it was orange and edited my post, you replied too quickly 🙂