NCLH Stock Price

[ziggyuk]

9 hours ago, brovol said:

So, as I said earlier, I own 122 shares of NCL stock, after purchasing when price was real low.  My question is, what do I need to do to get my $100 OBC prior to my cruise in March?  I know it says send NCL a brokerage statement or a proxy card, along with the benefit request form, but what exactly do you sent them?  I have my account with TD Ameritrade; can I just print something out from the site?  I dont see any options for that.  And How soon can I send in that form.  NCL site says "at least __ days before the cruise", but could I send it as early as now?  It seems to me NCL would want to make sure you dont just buy the stock one day, send in the form and proof of ownership, then sell it after getting the credit.  Any insight on that?

 

I just email them a screen print of my stockholding page with all the valuation etc, I have done this every time for years.
I have already made a claim for September 2021 and it was paid within 3 days, so early as you like.

[fstuff1]

and after hours today, it kept sinking after the close.

not that it matters much as a prediction on how tomorrow's open will fare.

[brovol]

Thanks to all who answered my question. 

 

Yes, watching NCL's stock price is like being on a roller-coaster.  Ultimatly though, I think it will get over $40 a share over the course of a few years.

[bmwman]

49 minutes ago, brovol said:

Thanks to all who answered my question. 

 

Yes, watching NCL's stock price is like being on a roller-coaster.  Ultimatly though, I think it will get over $40 a share over the course of a few years.

Absolutely 

[fstuff1]

down -10% in premarket to $18.60 :o

 

corona virus resurgence fears

[Formula280SS]

22 hours ago, brovol said:

Thanks to all who answered my question. 

 

Yes, watching NCL's stock price is like being on a roller-coaster.  Ultimatly though, I think it will get over $40 a share over the course of a few years.

 

A roller-coaster of enormous proportions.

 

NCLH has approximately 254 million public float shares outstanding.  Look at the daily volume of shares traded since the end of April (incredible % of the public float).  In normal times, some proffer that such high % indicates good liquidity (you can get in or out easily); however, these are not normal times.  The daily 'short volume and % are absurd also, and the bi-month short interest is also.  It's a really tough call in the short term; will they burn through billions in new debt just to make it to a reduced capacity level of operations, highly discounted (including FCC @ 125%) "if C-19 doesn't rear its' ugly head on any major cruise ship."

 

[Formula280SS]

This is another self-analysis that concerns me (not investment advice).

 

1.  I look at the March 31, 2020 10-Q SEC filed quarterly report and look at the NET BOOK VALUE (and Per SHARE) or $12.50 PPS.

 

2.  Then I adjust for the Intangible Assets (Goodwill and Other) to get to a NET OF INTANGIBLE VALUE Per SHARE or $7.79 PPS.

 

3.  Then I adjust for the estimation of a $150M per month NOL through 2020 and RE-DO (1) and (2); at December 31st, if still on no sail, NET BOOK VALUE (and Per SHARE) or $7.19 PPS and NET OF INTANGIBLE VALUE Per SHARE or $2.47 PPS.

 

4.  Then note that such doesn't exclude the DILUTION form the Exchangeable Debt recently issued; which would be 33,057,840 shares for the $400M in Exchangeable (for Common Shares) Notes (I can't find the exact share conversion rate, believe it was at a 25% premium to the PPS at a certain date and somewhere in the $12+ range).

 

So, although in the long run, until C-19 gets "resolved" globally (vaccine, therapeutic, etc.) that the countries, ports, airlines and travelers believe in, any stocks in the cruising, resort, hotel, restaurant, etc. industries are difficult to assess.

 

FWIW, here is a snapshot of the worksheet for the above. 

 

[fstuff1]

3 hours ago, Formula280SS said:

This is another self-analysis that concerns me (not investment advice).

 

1.  I look at the March 31, 2020 10-Q SEC filed quarterly report and look at the NET BOOK VALUE (and Per SHARE) or $12.50 PPS.

 

2.  Then I adjust for the Intangible Assets (Goodwill and Other) to get to a NET OF INTANGIBLE VALUE Per SHARE or $7.79 PPS.

 

3.  Then I adjust for the estimation of a $150M per month NOL through 2020 and RE-DO (1) and (2); at December 31st, if still on no sail, NET BOOK VALUE (and Per SHARE) or $7.19 PPS and NET OF INTANGIBLE VALUE Per SHARE or $2.47 PPS.

 

4.  Then note that such doesn't exclude the DILUTION form the Exchangeable Debt recently issued; which would be 33,057,840 shares for the $400M in Exchangeable (for Common Shares) Notes (I can't find the exact share conversion rate, believe it was at a 25% premium to the PPS at a certain date and somewhere in the $12+ range).

 

is pps the same as Earnings per share (EPS)?

 

[Formula280SS]

3 hours ago, fstuff1 said:

 

is pps the same as Earnings per share (EPS)?

 

 

Sorry, should have spelled out - Price Per Share (as in what is the stock trading at per share).

[fstuff1]

and the roller coaster ride continues.

-9% premarket 

[babydaryl24]

39 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

and the roller coaster ride continues.

-9% premarket 

I have a few thousand just sitting around...... I wonder if picking up NCL this afternoon or evening as the cancellations roll out would be smart?

[Newleno]

On 6/9/2020 at 2:13 PM, Budget Queen said:

I simply have a stockpile of printed out NCL benefit forms.   Fill it out-   Email address is on the form.    I photograph the form and take a screenshot of my statement.    And send them together in 1 email.   
 

In the past I. Frequently late booked   This works well.  

what was the latest?  I mean before sailing when was the latest you booked?, example 7 days before sailing?, and you  still were able to receive the benefit, thanks

Edited June 15, 2020 by Newleno

[Budget Queen]

34 minutes ago, Newleno said:

what was the latest?  I mean before sailing when was the latest you booked?, example 7 days before sailing?, and you  still were able to receive the benefit, thanks

Day prior.    But don’t assume this will happen in the future.   There is a policy of the official deadline I have seen.    Refer to that.   

[fstuff1]

and after the close, ncl announces no sailings till end of sept.

-15% after market. 

 

i dont think the stock will stay down.

it's been known for a couple of weeks about ncl's leaked schedule of initial sailings starting at end of sept.

this is probably a knee-jerk reaction by those who dont follow the industry.

 

lets see what happens tomorrow at open.

Edited June 16, 2020 by fstuff1

[oteixeira]

2 hours ago, fstuff1 said:

and after the close, ncl announces no sailings till end of sept.

-15% after market. 

 

i dont think the stock will stay down.

it's been known for a couple of weeks about ncl's leaked schedule of initial sailings starting at end of sept.

this is probably a knee-jerk reaction by those who dont follow the industry.

 

lets see what happens tomorrow at open.

You are right, Wall St is knee jerk, and these stocks are super volatile.  Just hold, it will come back.  and you will make money (unless you are one of those people who think it will go bankrupt)...I expect to get beat up tomorrow, then rebound as soon as there is another news headline that a vaccine is in testing or a drug is helping folks.  I bought in under 10, and have added to my position over time, my average buy in is around 16 a share now.

[SeaWatcher65]

Tough decisions with the stock.  I am hopeful for NCL.  I was going to buy when it was around $10-$12 but concerned about bankruptcy.  Still concerned because I have $1000 worth of cruise next certificates and two cruises booked.  I am doubtful my December cruise is going to happen.  If there is not more certainty by the time of final payment in August, I will cancel and not make final payment.  

 

We need some major changes for the positive between now and August for NCL stocks to get any gain.  If not, investors will pick other stocks that I think are more surely to grow a lot faster (airlines, hotels, amusement parks, restaurant supply companies, etc.) when the economy gets going more.  At $10-12 I'd consider buying NCL stock, but if that low, bankruptcy is a concern.  If the price is higher around $20, I'd prefer to invest $2000 in other stocks (other than cruise lines).  

 

The $100 on board credit for owning 100 shares is a plus especially for people who cruise a lot.  But there's no guarantee NCL will continue that perk in the future as they have made other cost cutting measures in the past.  Do other cruise lines offer a similar perk? 

[atanac]

3 minutes ago, SeaWatcher65 said:

The $100 on board credit for owning 100 shares is a plus especially for people who cruise a lot.  But there's no guarantee NCL will continue that perk in the future as they have made other cost cutting measures in the past.  

If I were advising NCL about this perk I'd suggest raising the limit to 1000 shares until the industry rebounds.

[sr71_1]

if the 12% futures drop holds at opening use it as an opportunity to buy.  Give this one a little time .... it will come back strong.      

[mugtech]

Wednesday is a great buying op, go for it.

[oteixeira]

12 hours ago, SeaWatcher65 said:

Tough decisions with the stock.  I am hopeful for NCL.  I was going to buy when it was around $10-$12 but concerned about bankruptcy.  Still concerned because I have $1000 worth of cruise next certificates and two cruises booked.  I am doubtful my December cruise is going to happen.  If there is not more certainty by the time of final payment in August, I will cancel and not make final payment.  

 

We need some major changes for the positive between now and August for NCL stocks to get any gain.  If not, investors will pick other stocks that I think are more surely to grow a lot faster (airlines, hotels, amusement parks, restaurant supply companies, etc.) when the economy gets going more.  At $10-12 I'd consider buying NCL stock, but if that low, bankruptcy is a concern.  If the price is higher around $20, I'd prefer to invest $2000 in other stocks (other than cruise lines).  

 

The $100 on board credit for owning 100 shares is a plus especially for people who cruise a lot.  But there's no guarantee NCL will continue that perk in the future as they have made other cost cutting measures in the past.  Do other cruise lines offer a similar perk? 

I was always told that the time to buy is when everyone else is too scared to.  It sounds like you are a sound conservative investor, but that wont make you any large jump gains in a short time.  For those you have to gamble.  I bought RCL, CCL, and NCLH in mid March, which I announced here I would do.  That mid march purchase is STILL up (even with these futures this morning) well over 50% gain in 3 months.  As I said I added some to my NCLH position, so my average buy in is now about 16 dollars.  Even with that I am up 40% on my investment.

If you wait for a stock to be a safe bet you will make safe bet money, but I wish you all the best of luck.  I think if you were a gambling person, today would be a good day to get back in, since it dipped on the bad news.  This stock is going back to 60 in the next 3 years, so again, unless you are afraid they go bankrupt, it's and easy investment.

 

Good luck to you!

 

 

[mscdivina2016]

17 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

  This stock is going back to 60 in the next 3 years, so again, unless you are afraid they go bankrupt, it's and easy investment.

 

 

I agree with you.

I keep buying the dips and selling the highs. But bankruptcy could be possible is why I keep getting out. I am starting to see that we may not cruise till 2022.

 

I am looking to get back in today. I want 5000 shares under $19 but I will wait for the opening bell to see if it drops further.

Sell order for $21

Steve

[oteixeira]

8 minutes ago, mscdivina2016 said:

I agree with you.

I keep buying the dips and selling the highs. But bankruptcy could be possible is why I keep getting out. I am starting to see that we may not cruise till 2022.

 

I am looking to get back in today. I want 5000 shares under $19 but I will wait for the opening bell to see if it drops further.

Sell order for $21

Steve

Steve,

  I could have made even more if I sold on the first dive down from 26, but I find myself to be an accumulator.  I just keep grabbing more and more on the dips, and not selling at all.  Good luck to you, your strategy is very wise for such a volatile stock, plenty of money to make on the ups and downs that it is going through right now.

 

 

[mscdivina2016]

20 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Steve,

  I could have made even more if I sold on the first dive down from 26, but I find myself to be an accumulator.  I just keep grabbing more and more on the dips, and not selling at all.  Good luck to you, your strategy is very wise for such a volatile stock, plenty of money to make on the ups and downs that it is going through right now.

 

 

I expect the next big dip on July 27 I think.

CDC will extend the no sail order. Will it be another 100 days???

 

Steve

 

Just got in at $18.98 

Edited June 17, 2020 by mscdivina2016

[Nclcruise1415]

Just bought 100 more shares. Will purchase more as it drops.

[fstuff1]

22 hours ago, fstuff1 said:

and after the close, ncl announces no sailings till end of sept.

-15% after market. 

 

i dont think the stock will stay down.

it's been known for a couple of weeks about ncl's leaked schedule of initial sailings starting at end of sept.

this is probably a knee-jerk reaction by those who dont follow the industry.

 

lets see what happens tomorrow at open.

 

i was wrong.

opened at -10% and closed at -8%.

 

guess people didnt know about the leaked ship schedule from last week??!?! 

wow.. could have made a killing shorting the stock.