NCLH Stock Price

[luv2kroooz]

Wow! Possible reaction to an extended complete shutdown of operations. Predictable result, further dilution and per share price decrease.

[njhorseman]

Also new debt offering today.  $675 million senior secured notes to repay a previous $675 million revolving credit facility and an additional $250 million exchangeable senior unsecured notes.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3591742-norwegian-cruise-line-subsidiary-launches-debt-offering

[luv2kroooz]

Uh oh......big surprise here....

 

July 16 (Reuters) - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd said on Thursday it expected little revenue in the second quarter, as the COVID-19 pandemic brought global tourism to a standstill and forced the company to suspend all voyages for months.

[BermudaBound2014]

I have another ncl booked using a next cruise deposit (which I am prepared to lose). Anyone handing over cash deposits to NCL at this time are much higher risk takers than myself. Best of luck!

[ColeThornton]

Shares of cruise operators fell in premarket trading Friday, after the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) extended its cruise ship "no sail order" through September 2020 amid a surge in new COVID-19 cases. The CDC's previous order was set to expire on July 24. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH, -15.62% dropped 2.7% ahead of the open, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, -7.57% shed 2.6% and Carnival Corp. CCL, -9.72% fell 1.1%. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Patrick Scholes said the CDC's extended order "should not be too much of a surprise," as it comes after the last month's announcement by Cruise Lines International Association of an agreement to voluntarily extend the suspension of operations from U.S. ports until Sept. 15. "We continue to believe that sailings will not resume in quantity in North America until at least 2Q21," Scholes wrote in a note to clients. "Subsequently, we reiterate our belief there will be continued investor disappointment as further starting date delays are announced. Norwegian's stock has plunged 73.3% year to date, Royal's stock has tumbled 59.6% and Carnival shares have slumped 69.0%, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.34% has eased 0.5%.

 

 

[fstuff1]

holy crap.. ncl went up to $24/share today!?!?!

and this is after they diluted the stock (again) last week with 40M new shares! https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Norwegian+Cruise+Line+Holdings+(NCLH)+Announces+40M+Share+Offering+of+Ordinary+Shares/17616004.html

 

plus Billions of new debt since the pandemic started!

and no cruises till at least Feb 2021!

 

i'm thinking of shorting NCL...

 

Edited November 27, 2020 by fstuff1

[oteixeira]

17 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

holy crap.. ncl went up to $24/share today!?!?!

and this is after they diluted the stock (again) last week with 40M new shares! https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Norwegian+Cruise+Line+Holdings+(NCLH)+Announces+40M+Share+Offering+of+Ordinary+Shares/17616004.html

 

plus Billions of new debt since the pandemic started!

and no cruises till at least Feb 2021!

 

i'm thinking of shorting NCL...

 

Good luck with that.  I play the straight game, got in back in March for 9.50 and have been holding ever since.  I would think shorting with all the vaccine news that has been coming out would be an interesting move.  

[fstuff1]

7 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Good luck with that.  I play the straight game, got in back in March for 9.50 and have been holding ever since.  I would think shorting with all the vaccine news that has been coming out would be an interesting move.  

it's fundamentals.

 

$24 is 1/2 the price of $48/share pre-pandemic when they were topping estimates.

now they are near $0  revenue!

plus billions additional debt.

plus multiple rounds of stock dilution. 

 

and this  convinced myself to pull the trigger to short. :o

 

Edited November 27, 2020 by fstuff1

[oteixeira]

3 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

it's fundamentals.

 

$24 is 1/2 the price of $48/share pre-pandemic when they were topping estimates.

now they are near $0  revenue!

plus billions additional debt.

plus multiple rounds of stock dilution. 

 

and this  convinced myself to pull the trigger to short. 😮

 

Your trying to use logic and apply it to a market that is being driven by covid fear and news.  I think even with all the dilution the amount of pent up demand and FCCs that need to be used allow them to max out profits for at least 18 months post start up.  Also, any unused cash will be used to by back stock or pay off credit lines (or just close them outright).  When it is all said and done I think 24 months after restart we are looking at a stock right back at it's highs in the 55-60 range.  

Good luck to you, but I am obviously betting the opposite direction.

[Formula280SS]

27 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

holy crap.. ncl went up to $24/share today!?!?!

and this is after they diluted the stock (again) last week with 40M new shares! https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Norwegian+Cruise+Line+Holdings+(NCLH)+Announces+40M+Share+Offering+of+Ordinary+Shares/17616004.html

 

plus Billions of new debt since the pandemic started!

and no cruises till at least Feb 2021!

 

i'm thinking of shorting NCL...

 

 

Calculating the dilution of the issuances and the fully convertible debt, NCLH has almost twice the forward equity shares.  With a 5-year high of $60, with half the shares, a PPS of $30 would be a 100% of pre-pandemic valuation.

 

So, suffering $750M a quarter in losses, with 12/31/20 and 3/31/21 looking the same (or higher on costs to restart and compliance), does $24 (or 80% of pre-pandemic valuation) make any sense?

 

Nope.

 

Hence the short interest 18.87% as of 11/13/20 (Royal 8.76% as of 11/13/20 and CCL 14.18% as of 11/13/20).

 

As the vaccines supply quantity 'roll out and are dispersed and allocated to contracting countries and then therein, there appears to be no reasonable expectation of mass vaccination and immunity amongst the general population until the 3rd quarter of 2021 (and that is even a tough target).

 

Can't wait to safely cruise, but re: NCLH's stock PPS of $24, or 80% per share pre-pandemic valuation with at least 2, and possibly 4, quarters of $750M losses, is not apparently a wise investment for a reasonably prudent person.

 

🙄

[fstuff1]

2 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Your trying to use logic and apply it to a market that is being driven by covid fear and news.

  I think even with all the dilution the amount of pent up demand and FCCs that need to be used allow them to max out profits for at least 18 months post start up. 

Also, any unused cash will be used to by back stock or pay off credit lines (or just close them outright).  When it is all said and done I think 24 months after restart we are looking at a stock right back at it's highs in the 55-60 range.  

Good luck to you, but I am obviously betting the opposite direction.

yes about illogical stock market.

Tesla has doubled every other month!

 

nevertheless, i believe it's the Dutch tulip problem.

the bubble will burst and it will come back down to fundamentals.

 

also, ncl will not receive much new $ in the months after cruises start again due to all that FCC out there.

 

[Formula280SS]

Tough week, wake up call or whatever.

 

Well, either there is some number crunching going on with the enlightenment of the actual return to normal cruising (and earnings) or the new strains of the coronavirus and expected shutdowns and border closings are having an impact.  Even the trillion dollar stimulus not giving any pop.  IMO, all three major cruise line equity investments at these share prices given the above are very risky.  But, that's just me.

 

[oteixeira]

25 minutes ago, Formula280SS said:

Tough week, wake up call or whatever.

 

Well, either there is some number crunching going on with the enlightenment of the actual return to normal cruising (and earnings) or the new strains of the coronavirus and expected shutdowns and border closings are having an impact.  Even the trillion dollar stimulus not giving any pop.  IMO, all three major cruise line equity investments at these share prices given the above are very risky.  But, that's just me.

 

Got in way back in March under 10, added more along the way.  I am still up over 40% and holding long.  This ups and downs are going to continue but in the end I see the stock returning to 55-60 dollar mark, even with all of the dilution.  

[Formula280SS]

13 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Got in way back in March under 10, added more along the way.  I am still up over 40% and holding long.  This ups and downs are going to continue but in the end I see the stock returning to 55-60 dollar mark, even with all of the dilution.  

 

That was a great entry point under 10.  Gets a little dicey the further up the PPS chain it went.  But, good luck.

[GA Dave]

Things like this do not help the cruise industry:

 

The Cruise Industry Won't Return To Prepandemic Levels Until 2030

[HowardK]

20 hours ago, GA Dave said:

Things like this do not help the cruise industry:

 

The Cruise Industry Won't Return To Prepandemic Levels Until 2030

Depending how things progress, maybe 2025-2026 (for example) could be a possibility as well- or earlier perhaps.

The one item that concerns me is the air filtration in hallways and how they would modify that. Also, the quick turnaround times of a few hours for cleaning would need to be solved for. Would they end up doing 6 day cruises or board people in the evening?

Any speculation made right now assume both people getting vaccinated and a reduction of the spread in cases.

Any dates the articles list say hopefully by 3Q 2021 or 2022 or whenever things will be full- but dates can keep getting pushed back- kind of like the return of arena rock concerts or baseball games. 

 

When are there most recent notes due? I saw they have a $800 million debt offering due 2025 . 

If I were to buy the stock myself, it would be hold for 20 years as I would hope in the 2030's cruising would be safe and profitable by then. 

[Formula280SS]

1 hour ago, HowardK said:

When are there most recent notes due? I saw they have a $800 million debt offering due 2025 . 

If I were to buy the stock myself, it would be hold for 20 years as I would hope in the 2030's cruising would be safe and profitable by then. 

 

Here are NCLH Bonds, listed in FINRA, by maturity.  On the site you can select a bond and see its trading history since issuance.  It was a wild ride in late February, leveled out with the FED intervention (that is little known IMO).

 

[BermudaBound2014]

On 12/22/2020 at 11:31 AM, oteixeira said:

Got in way back in March under 10, added more along the way.  I am still up over 40% and holding long.  This ups and downs are going to continue but in the end I see the stock returning to 55-60 dollar mark, even with all of the dilution.  

 

Just curious, what year do you expect NCL stock to hit 50 again? I'm trying to understand those of you still playing. 

[HowardK]

@Formula280SS-thank you for posting. I saw a few Bond funds and ETF's (ones skewing toward high yields) had some of the NCL's in their formulas.

 

Bermuda Bound- if I had to make an estimated prediction it would be after there was a return to profitability as earnings per share are still expected to be negative through next year.  There would need to be confidence (and of course a return) in my opinion that things have turned. 

[Formula280SS]

1 hour ago, Formula280SS said:

 

Here are NCLH Bonds, listed in FINRA, by maturity.  On the site you can select a bond and see its trading history since issuance.  It was a wild ride in late February, leveled out with the FED intervention (that is little known IMO).

 

 

Forgot to add, if you go to the FINRA Bond search for NCLH and sort by Maturity (like above), you can then select each Bond to get the Face Amounts (and other information).

 

For example, here is the first one by maturity, in the amount of $700M.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, Formula280SS said:

 

Forgot to add, if you go to the FINRA Bond search for NCLH and sort by Maturity (like above), you can then select each Bond to get the Face Amounts (and other information).

 

For example, here is the first one by maturity, in the amount of $700M.

 

 

 

OMG

 

[oteixeira]

4 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Just curious, what year do you expect NCL stock to hit 50 again? I'm trying to understand those of you still playing. 

2023 or 2024 is my best guess.  2 years of normal cruising (22 & 23) should do it.

[Formula280SS]

46 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

OMG

 

 

Yep, they're going to need a capital raise via debt (or they'll try another equity round) for that one.  They will be on a 90-day remaining cash window at June 30th, and it just doesn't appear cruising will be anywhere near normal at all for the 3rd quarter.  Love the NCL brand, the composition of its fleet (especially compared to CCL), but they really can't take many more unexpected blows to the resumption of operations.  The vaccine(s) roll outs, realistically, put the concept of resumed cruising passenger counts and revenues nowhere near 2021 (IMO). 

 

There is also no crystal ball as to what the US regulators will do in 2021 after an administration change.  IMO, the Great Reset doesn't have "cruising" in its' equitable plan for planetary resources or individual financial capital.

 

We plan to cruise, if vaccinated, and the protocols are in place.  Still have our MSC Seashore booked for December 2021 (B2B if allowed), but not holding our breath.  Had planned to cruise 12-15 weeks this recent Fall into Winter quarter before this (the virus) all bore down.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

@Formula280SS up again today w volume @ 17,800,000. Quite fascinating.

 

We had only 70 ish days planned so not in quite as much as you but 90% of my purchases are within 45 days of departure so no telling how that may have played out. I’m banking that Our 2021 vacations will likely be land based and here in the USA. WGO has been good to me. 
 

As I’m sure you’re aware, my personal belief is that the image of cruising has taken a long term blow which will require decades to recover from, if ever. I don’t for one moment believe there is any meaningful pent up demand. From the onset of the virus the writing has been on the wall.  How it all shakes out is going to be interesting to watch. No doubt many will be heartbroken. 
 

I appreciate your posts. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by BermudaBound2014

[Formula280SS]

@BermudaBound2014

 

Our plans for Fall 2020 were going to be upsized after selling business in 2019 and enjoying extended cruises in the Fall 2019 so much.  With three sons, families, grandkids from SoCal/Texas, Maryland and Boston, all with careers and in-laws, "we travel around" for the holidays and cruise in between.  Fall 2019 was great.  Then, post Christmas, head to FL on NY Eve arrival (middle East Coast, barrier island) for winter.  Then the dreaded virus reared its ugly head.

 

Looking at the slow (but safe) vaccine roll outs, it is apparent that it is going to be a really long time for everyone to get it, for the timing to become protective, and then for the population to accept the challenges of travel again.  For us, we're not really concerned about the post-vaccination cruise ships, more with the entire airport and flight aspect.

 

The issue, as you mention, with cruise demand is spot on, especially when we factor in the new build orders and schedules.  It was just last year the Cruise Industry Report for 2019-2027 projected cruise passenger counts to grow almost 50% to 40 million from 27 million.  Given that, our concern with maintaining "existing cruise passenger counts" is magnified.  I really can't see how the demand will rise 50% to match the new builds from 2021-2027 (especially at the front end of the date range).

 

So, for equity holders, those ships will have to be paid for, delivery accepted and expenses incurred to operate and maintain.  Yes, there are some deferrals negotiated, but there is a huge fleet now and it's only going to get bigger and bigger.  Out of the gate (on restart) in late 2021, and adding each year thereafter, is an established business, but it has just almost fully re-leveraged to the MAX and with each ship forthcoming, the same leverage for about 80% (and where they get the 20% cash I do not know).

 

Fingers crossed and thumbs up for cruising late in 2021, post vaccinated and somewhat sense of normalcy.

 

GLTY