Will the Higher End/Smaller Ships Return to Cruising First?

[Smokeyham]

Wondering if anyone else is thinking that the first ships to return to cruising will be the higher end smaller ships?  Here is my thinking:

1.  Higher income people will have been less hurt by the recession and, especially when stock markets begin to recover, will have more disposable income available.

 

2. The smaller ships will be more attractive with more space per passenger available, and even when formal "social distancing" requirements end that travelers will still  feel more comfortable with additional space between them.

Your thoughts?

[chipmaster]

8 minutes ago, Smokeyham said:

Wondering if anyone else is thinking that the first ships to return to cruising will be the higher end smaller ships?  Here is my thinking:

1.  Higher income people will have been less hurt by the recession and, especially when stock markets begin to recover, will have more disposable income available.

 

2. The smaller ships will be more attractive with more space per passenger available, and even when formal "social distancing" requirements end that travelers will still  feel more comfortable with additional space between them.

Your thoughts?

 

I think those with yachts will indeed keep sailing, but group cruising whether 2000 or 250 similar issues and likely bucketed together from regulation and docking stigma. 

 

You planning to take one of the smaller more expensive and hope to come back first?   This is like arguing is the folks sitting up front in the airplane going to start flying first and are safer.

[Smokeyham]

2 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

You planning to take one of the smaller more expensive and hope to come back first?   This is like arguing is the folks sitting up front in the airplane going to start flying first and are safer.

Thanks for the response.  Actually, I was just asking the question and wondering if other felt this might be the way things work out.  I would enjoy going on a small, higher end, ship but is not really a plan.

[ldubs]

14 minutes ago, Smokeyham said:

Wondering if anyone else is thinking that the first ships to return to cruising will be the higher end smaller ships?  Here is my thinking:

1.  Higher income people will have been less hurt by the recession and, especially when stock markets begin to recover, will have more disposable income available.

 

2. The smaller ships will be more attractive with more space per passenger available, and even when formal "social distancing" requirements end that travelers will still  feel more comfortable with additional space between them.

Your thoughts?

 

My opinion based on nothing:  

 

1) More affluent would certainly be in a better position to spend on things like cruises.  Makes sense to me. 

 

2) I suspect people who will still cruise will generally forget all about social distancing and do what they did before.   

 

 

[clo]

1 hour ago, ldubs said:

2) I suspect people who will still cruise will generally forget all about social distancing and do what they did before.   

 

I hadn't thought of that. So another reason to consider future cruises.

[leaveitallbehind]

I wouldn't bet your proposition against the major mass market cruise lines who are all planning to be back by mid-May, and are actively taking bookings for sailings commencing then. And if anyone (such as I have) has looked at and booked cruises in 2021 with those same cruise lines, you will find that the pricing is very healthy for those itineraries.  In other words I don't think the future is going to be based on your suppositions.  I think the industry will rebound rather quickly and return to the current demographics sooner than later.

[NantahalaCruiser]

22 minutes ago, leaveitallbehind said:

I wouldn't bet your proposition against the major mass market cruise lines who are all planning to be back by mid-May, and are actively taking bookings for sailings commencing then. And if anyone (such as I have) has looked at and booked cruises in 2021 with those same cruise lines, you will find that the pricing is very healthy for those itineraries.  In other words I don't think the future is going to be based on your suppositions.  I think the industry will rebound rather quickly and return to the current demographics sooner than later.

Anybody's guess when they will actually return to sailing; but IMHO the cruise lines are not planning to be back by mid-May. They are actively taking bookings for post mid-May cruises because they need the cash-flow.

Edited March 28, 2020 by NantahalaCruiser

[leaveitallbehind]

12 minutes ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

Anybody's guess when they will actually return to sailing; but IMHO the cruise lines are not planning to be back by mid-May. They are actively taking bookings for post mid-May cruises because they need the cash-flow.

Well circumstances could always change the plans and an additional extension to the current suspension of operations could take place.  But they are most certainly hoping and planning to be back with active itineraries commencing mid-May.  At least that is the case for RCI, Celebrity, and Princess.  Of course they need cash flow but I doubt they are taking bookings with the expectation that they are not expecting to sail.

[Nic6318]

On 3/27/2020 at 7:35 PM, ldubs said:

 

My opinion based on nothing:  

 

1) More affluent would certainly be in a better position to spend on things like cruises.  Makes sense to me. 

 

2) I suspect people who will still cruise will generally forget all about social distancing and do what they did before.   

 

 

 

Hi

I am looking at this just slightly differently.

 

1.  I think people will spend their money as they had before, in other words, if they can afford it, they will. I am curious to see if            after an initial push to draw people back with low prices, all cruise lines would likely want to raise those fares as much as              possible. How they can accomplish this goal would be uncertain. Considering pricing is based on supply and demand, I would      think that they would need to somehow reduce supply. 

 

2.  To your second point, I think people won't support cruising, as well as some other vacation choices until they don't have to            even consider social distancing.

[leaveitallbehind]

46 minutes ago, Nic6318 said:

 

...I am curious to see if            after an initial push to draw people back with low prices, all cruise lines would likely want to raise those fares as much as              possible. How they can accomplish this goal would be uncertain. Considering pricing is based on supply and demand, I would      think that they would need to somehow reduce supply. 

 

Do some mock bookings on 2021 itineraries to get an idea.  We moved a group Italy land tour and cruise from this June to next July and our current booking rates on the cruise are significantly higher than that which we had in June.  Clearly that may change over time but, at least in our case, there is no indication of a softening of pricing or supply at this point for next year.

 

Conversely, our pricing on current July and August itineraries are very attractive with recent decreases on both.  Not unexpected but certainly a short term reaction to the current situation.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by leaveitallbehind