CDC Delays Cruising for a While

[KirkNC]

I think the assumptions that there will be an official end or vaccine anytime soon are misplaced.  Viruses are ever changing and are notoriously hard to develop effective vaccines. Look at the annual flu vaccine, it’s different every year and some years it’s more effective then others.  Personally I think the virus will be around for a while (18-24 months).  We might reduce the number of cases but I think it will ebb and flow for a while.  And that assumes another new virus does not appear.

Edited April 10, 2020 by KirkNC

[JeffElizabeth]

2 hours ago, Fredric22 said:

People see a vaccine as the only "end" to this, but that is simply not true.  Treatments are our best bet to end this sooner.  When we have good treatments in place (they are being developed around the world), COVID-19 becomes a treatable disease and will be more like getting the flu (which it already is for most folks).  Mortality rates will drop significantly and hospital and ICU admissions will fall too. For those at extremely high risk, the danger may remain elevated (some of these people cant receive treatments for various reasons) but that is why cruises will not embark very high risk individuals for quite some time, if ever. 

 

Agree. Germany just said that they think a lot of their population already got the virus and beat it. They have antibodies. I have to think America and Canada also have already been infected. 

[JeffElizabeth]

Saw a story yesterday that already more people are booked for cruises in 2021 than they were in 2019. I am sure some of those are people who were already booked. We had a British Isles cruise set up for 2021 already. And with the current amazing deals, we are looking at booking a transatlantic in 2022. 

[npcl]

3 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Well, the order requires them to submit the plan within 7 days, and that I feel is doable, as CLIA has already worked with CDC on the original order and drafted a response plan, but one that needed further revision according to the CDC.  When the plans can be "operationalized" is something I won't even begin to speculate on, but I would make a SWAG at 30 days.  The order does allow for cooperation in implementing the plan between cruise lines, and even with the trade group, CLIA.  So, the need for "hospital" ships and "hotel" ships, can be spread across lines.  Whether other countries will start accepting cruise ships based on the action plans submitted in the US is another question. 

The plan requirements seem more focused on the cruise lines managing the issues of ships in or near US ports with the crew and a few passengers on board, more so then planning for restarting operations. 

 

The language about all operations having to be approved by the USCG with coordination with HHS CDC personnel and that state and local control is over ridden, seems to be in line with the lack of transparency of the cruise lines with the USCG.  The focus on medical testing and reporting to CDC also seems to indicate a desire for more information on the exact status of the crew on those ships. 

[npcl]

22 minutes ago, JeffElizabeth said:

Saw a story yesterday that already more people are booked for cruises in 2021 than they were in 2019. I am sure some of those are people who were already booked. We had a British Isles cruise set up for 2021 already. And with the current amazing deals, we are looking at booking a transatlantic in 2022. 

Just think of all those that had cruises canceled and got FCC's.  That is where a lot of the booking coming from.

 

Also the booking comparison is compared to last year at this time.  So what percentage of bookings are made at least 9 months in advance.  So the relatively low basec of cruises made at least 9 months in advance.  The cruises that were booked before this all started, together with all of the FCCs to be used result in the higher booking number.  As more cruises are canceled this year, the more it will continue to be higher. The real question is how many new bookings are with cash, not FCCs.

[npcl]

39 minutes ago, zelker said:

The pandemic itself is what will impact the cruising public, American or not.  The point of this is that unless there are comparable entities in other countries doing the same thing, this will not shut the cruise lines down anywhere but what's under US control.  

Which is most of their business. Either ships from US ports, or US passengers.

[Lazy Lakes]

People let not forget the hard working crews whom now have no jobs!!!! No Goverment hand outs. This is not just about a cruise cancelled or your deposit returned. We talking peoples lives.

[chengkp75]

11 minutes ago, npcl said:

The plan requirements seem more focused on the cruise lines managing the issues of ships in or near US ports with the crew and a few passengers on board, more so then planning for restarting operations. 

 

The language about all operations having to be approved by the USCG with coordination with HHS CDC personnel and that state and local control is over ridden, seems to be in line with the lack of transparency of the cruise lines with the USCG.  The focus on medical testing and reporting to CDC also seems to indicate a desire for more information on the exact status of the crew on those ships. 

Sure would like to see where you feel that the cruise lines have not been "transparent" with the USCG.  I think this revised order is simply to give CLIA and the lines a definite deadline to get the plans already put forward to USCG and CDC into action.

[zelker]

Not being transparent ... how about not disclosing people are sick on a ship before docking?  That's happened more than once and in more than one port.

 

[cbr663]

56 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

I think the assumptions that there will be an official end or vaccine anytime soon are misplaced.  Viruses are ever changing and are notoriously hard to develop effective vaccines. Look at the annual flu vaccine, it’s different every year and some years it’s more effective then others.  Personally I think the virus will be around for a while (18-24 months).  We might reduce the number of cases but I think it will ebb and flow for a while.  And that assumes another new virus does not appear.

I agree, viruses are ever changing.  This news from South Korea that recovered patients are testing positive demonstrates this:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-recovered-coronavirus-patients-testing-positive-again-idUSKCN21S15X

 

That 100 days looks likely to change.

[cbr663]

The link to the actual CDC order: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships_Extension_4-9-20-encrypted.pdf

 

I suggest anyone thinking of sailing on a cruise ship read it in its entirety.  I would especially encourage everyone to read pages 6 - 8 on the conditions that the CDC has put forth for the cruise line industry to demonstrate "An appropriate plan is one that adequately prevents, mitigates, and responds to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships"

[Nymich]

11 minutes ago, cbr663 said:

The link to the actual CDC order: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships_Extension_4-9-20-encrypted.pdf

 

I suggest anyone thinking of sailing on a cruise ship read it in its entirety.  I would especially encourage everyone to read pages 6 - 8 on the conditions that the CDC has put forth for the cruise line industry to demonstrate "An appropriate plan is one that adequately prevents, mitigates, and responds to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships"

This is such a huge thing.  The WORLD has not figured out a way to prevent, mitigate and respond to the spread other than staying home and social distancing.  How in the heck do you do that on a crowded Cruise Ship?

Edited April 10, 2020 by Nymich

[cbr663]

49 minutes ago, Nymich said:

This is such a huge thing.  The WORLD has not figured out a way to prevent, mitigate and respond to the spread other than staying home and social distancing.  How in the heck do you do that on a crowded Cruise Ship?

 

Exactly.  👍

[IB2]

51 minutes ago, Nymich said:

This is such a huge thing.  The WORLD has not figured out a way to prevent, mitigate and respond to the spread other than staying home and social distancing.  How in the heck do you do that on a crowded Cruise Ship?

The published order is an emergency one to deal with the existing crisis, given the large number of ships still at sea off both coasts of the US.  It is not intended to set out a framework for the longer term resumption of the industry.

 

Nevertheless the contents of the specific provisions give a strong pointer as to the sort of changes and expectations that will rest with the industry before ports across the world are willing to restart accepting these ships.  We are likely to see changes to on board protocols, enhanced screening of passengers both when booking and boarding, requirements for stronger medical capacity on board ships, requirements for new all-crew training programmes, etc.  And the associated physical changes aboard ships.  This is likely to take time to deliver and will impose extra costs on the industry, some of which will inevitably fall on passengers both through higher prices and greater potential financial liability in the event of medical emergency.

 

Personally I doubt we will see cruising resume until 2021. I would also expect that the practice of accepting passengers who already have serious medical conditions will have to end.  Really this is a good thing, since people who are seriously ill shouldn’t expect to be travelling far from home and leaving others to face the consequences when things go wrong.

[Tampa Girl]

5 hours ago, bouhunter said:

Well that is......... never.

 

However, once the vaccine is available to everyone, regardless of who takes it, those who have had the vaccine will feel comfortable about cruising.  The hardier cruisers will jump aboard at the first sign that the virus has been all but eradicated.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

Sure would like to see where you feel that the cruise lines have not been "transparent" with the USCG.  I think this revised order is simply to give CLIA and the lines a definite deadline to get the plans already put forward to USCG and CDC into action.

By following the letter, not necessarily the intent.  Doing things like referring to the ill as "flu like symptoms" for large numbers, while only testing a few and putting that out as the number of Covid cases.  Apparently (according to some reports by crew members referred to in news paper articles) having ill crew members and not testing them so they don't have to say the actual number of Covid-19 cases

 

Most of all the Language in the paragraph Critical Need for Further Cooperation and Response Planning as well as the in the Findings and Immediate Action.

 

 

[chengkp75]

3 minutes ago, npcl said:

By following the letter, not necessarily the intent.  Doing things like referring to the ill as "flu like symptoms" for large numbers, while only testing a few and putting that out as the number of Covid cases.  Apparently (according to some reports by crew members referred to in news paper articles) having ill crew members and not testing them so they don't have to say the actual number of Covid-19 cases

 

Most of all the Language in the paragraph Critical Need for Further Cooperation and Response Planning as well as the in the Findings and Immediate Action.

 

 

Where were the ships going to get the testing kits?  We still don't have enough in the US, despite an exponential growth in production.

[npcl]

29 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Where were the ships going to get the testing kits?  We still don't have enough in the US, despite an exponential growth in production.

Actually there are now a fair number around these days.  My county now has testing sites open to anyone, not just those meeting CDC requirements.  Lots of commercial labs are now open.  A number of new tests have been approved from commercial firms in the US.

 

 Are you saying that with all of their assets, both inside the US and outside the US, they they cannot get their hand on sufficient test kits to test the ill if they really wanted to?  I suspect that if the cruise lines went to CDC and asked for sufficient test kits to test those ill that they could probably get them.

 

Again from  reports they are not even telling the crew on board the number of ill.  As one person put it, the only way we know that someone is ill and quarantined is by seeing the number of food trolleys in the hallway.  

Edited April 10, 2020 by npcl

[Nymich]

1 hour ago, IB2 said:

The published order is an emergency one to deal with the existing crisis, given the large number of ships still at sea off both coasts of the US.  It is not intended to set out a framework for the longer term resumption of the industry.

 

Nevertheless the contents of the specific provisions give a strong pointer as to the sort of changes and expectations that will rest with the industry before ports across the world are willing to restart accepting these ships.  We are likely to see changes to on board protocols, enhanced screening of passengers both when booking and boarding, requirements for stronger medical capacity on board ships, requirements for new all-crew training programmes, etc.  And the associated physical changes aboard ships.  This is likely to take time to deliver and will impose extra costs on the industry, some of which will inevitably fall on passengers both through higher prices and greater potential financial liability in the event of medical emergency.

 

Personally I doubt we will see cruising resume until 2021. I would also expect that the practice of accepting passengers who already have serious medical conditions will have to end.  Really this is a good thing, since people who are seriously ill shouldn’t expect to be travelling far from home and leaving others to face the consequences when things go wrong.

We are all speculating because nobody really knows what happens here. 

 

That being said it may not be the "framework" but it is the foundation of what high standards will be expected by the lines at this time anyway.  I would expect that as they change guidelines they will always have this foundation to fall back on at the first inkling of a problem.  Cruising has definitely changed.

[fatcat04]

3 hours ago, JeffElizabeth said:

Agree. Germany just said that they think a lot of their population already got the virus and beat it. They have antibodies. I have to think America and Canada also have already been infected. 

They just started antibody testing here in Nashville and have been for several weeks in major US cities. Blood banks will be randomly antibody testing donations over the next 6 mos. I had heard some prelim finding in Chicago that up to 30% of those tested are showing antibodies.

 

There are a few of us out here who look at California's numbers, which are exceptionally low compared to NY and NJ, and this despite CA being the number one state for Chinese tourism, and wonder if this virus wasn't introduced to that region in December and January. Authorities there (and in other areas of the US) did note an early rise in influenza like illness this flu season.

 

The antibody tests along with testing the variations in the virus itself to identify it's prior origin will tell us more. We don't know what kind of immunity these antibodies will impart and we also don't know if immunity to other coronaviruses has an effect on our immune response to Covid-19 but there are very hopeful signs out there. 

[DaveSJ711]

10 minutes ago, fatcat04 said:

They just started antibody testing here in Nashville and have been for several weeks in major US cities.

 

Under what authority have these tests been performed in the last several weeks?  The FDA approved the country's first coronavirus antibody test just this month.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html

[sergeant655]

If we wait for a vaccine that could come in 18 months and for everyone to get it some of the cruise lines may not be around or have less ships as they are losing money as the ships are now just doing loops in the ocean.  With no income coming in.  they could get non us cruises going if ports have reopened to soften the financial blow but the virus would have to stop spreading for it to happen 

[fatcat04]

47 minutes ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

Under what authority have these tests been performed in the last several weeks?  The FDA approved the country's first coronavirus antibody test just this month.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html

I'll have to find the article I read concerning the other efforts at collecting antibody data in the US. I have about 100+ articles to skim for the info.

 

The prelim reporting from Chicago was from this article, take it for what it's worth. https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

 

As noted by other posters and th e following article, other countries have been utilizing serological testing and gaining valuable information for some time now. https://globalnews.ca/news/6801008/coronavirus-canada-blood-tests-covid-19/

 

Even the FDA says " In March, the FDA issued a policy to allow developers of certain serological tests to begin to market or use their tests once they have performed the appropriate evaluation to determine that their tests are accurate and reliable. This includes allowing developers to market their tests without prior FDA review if certain conditions outlined in the guidance document are met. The FDA issued this policy to allow early patient access to certain serological tests with the understanding that the FDA has not reviewed and authorized them.... Since the FDA issued the policy, over 70 test developers have notified the agency that they have serological tests available for use. "

So even without the FDA official Imprimatur, test are out there and many are reliable.

 

I know Stanford Med just started a study utilizing drive up locations utilizizing finger blood draws. Here is the link for that info: https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study-investigates-californias-possible-herd-immunity-to-covid-19/32073873

and here https://www.ksbw.com/article/monterey-lab-offers-new-coronavirus-antibody-test/32011948

Edited April 10, 2020 by fatcat04

[Mosaic]

2 hours ago, Tampa Girl said:

 

However, once the vaccine is available to everyone, regardless of who takes it, those who have had the vaccine will feel comfortable about cruising.  The hardier cruisers will jump aboard at the first sign that the virus has been all but eradicated.

It will never be eradicated....

[fatcat04]

1 hour ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

Under what authority have these tests been performed in the last several weeks?  The FDA approved the country's first coronavirus antibody test just this month.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html

The Fates smiled on me. It was near the top of the heap.

Fascinating interview with Dr. Michael Busch of UCSF, his bio here https://pathology.ucsf.edu/about/faculty/michael-p-busch-md-phd

 

article here:

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/unprecedented-nationwide-blood-studies-seek-track-us-coronavirus-spread

 

fta:

Q: What serosurveys are you doing in the United States?

A: We’re developing three large serosurvey studies. We need to do them at regular intervals to detect ongoing incidence, to determine if antibody responses are waning, and to assess herd immunity.

The first one, which will be funded by the National Institutes of Health, is already underway in six metropolitan regions in the U.S. It was started in Seattle when that outbreak happened, then New York City, then we quickly kicked in the San Francisco Bay area, and now we’ve added Los Angeles, Boston, and Minneapolis. Colleagues at regional blood centers are each saving 1000 samples from donors each month—often it’s just a few days each month—and they’re demographically defined so we know the age, the gender, and, most important, the zip code of the donor’s residence. Those 6000 samples, collected each month starting in March and for the next 5 months, will be assessed with an antibody testing algorithm, which we’re still finalizing, that will help us monitor how many people develop SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over time. That will show us when we’re going from, say, a half a percent to 2% of the donors having antibodies.

That will evolve into a national survey. With support from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], we’ll conduct three national, fully representative serosurveys of the U.S. population using the blood donors. That will be 50,000 donations in September and December of 2020 and November of 2021. We’re going to be estimating overall antibody prevalence to SARS-CoV-2 within each state, but also map it down within the states to regions and metropolitan urban areas, and look at the differences

Edited April 10, 2020 by fatcat04