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SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!


TLCOhio
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3 hours ago, jollyjones said:

And I continue to think we dodged a bullet when RCI bought SS when they did - how long do you think Manfredi could have supported the financial loss on his own during the shutdown?   OK, time will tell with Jason Liberty, but I'm not feeling pessimistic.

 

Appreciate ALL of these additional comments and follow-ups.  Good added perspectives and thoughts.  Keep 'em coming!

 

To provide another angle from when I labeled new CEO-to-be Jason Liberty as a "bean-counter", that is true.  But, maybe that label is not the whole and complete story??

 

In reading a little more about retiring CEO Richard Fain, I discovered this background, educational information about him:  B.S. degree in economics from the University of California at Berkeley and an M.B.A. from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Oh, so Fain had a "bean-counter" background, too!!   

 

How did things work out for Fain and Royal Caribbean during his 33 years in growing that company as CEO?  His finance background did not stop him from understanding customers, market trends, etc.  

 

In listening to CFO Jason Liberty during recent financial quarterly briefings, he talked about much more than just the "numbers".  He seems to grasp key issues about customer booking patterns, on-board spending, advanced booking trends, etc.  My hope and expectations are that the new CEO will not forget about making customers happy and wanting us to come back.  Often and spending more?     

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 51,878 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

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9 hours ago, jollyjones said:

And I continue to think we dodged a bullet when RCI bought SS when they did - how long do you think Manfredi could have supported the financial loss on his own during the shutdown?

 

That same thought applies when Carnival Corporation acquired Holland America Line.  Seabourn was also slowly acquired by Carnival Corporation, first 25%, then 50%, and finally the final 50%.  Would there be a Seabourn Cruise Line today if that had not occurred?  

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5 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

In reading a little more about retiring CEO Richard Fain, I discovered this background, educational information about him:  B.S. degree in economics from the University of California at Berkeley and an M.B.A. from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Oh, so Fain had a "bean-counter" background, too!!   

 

I was unaware of Mr. Fain's educational background.  His academic credentials are impeccable.

 

5 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 He seems to grasp key issues about customer booking patterns, on-board spending, advanced booking trends, etc.  My hope and expectations are that the new CEO will not forget about making customers happy and wanting us to come back.  Often and spending more?     

 

The items you listed are what the CFO's concerns should be.  When I have listed to CCL's analysts conference calls, their CFO discusses those same items and answers questions from the analysts about those items.  Your hope/expectation for Mr. Liberty is the same as mine.  

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17 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

I was unaware of Mr. Fain's educational background.  His academic credentials are impeccable.   The items you listed are what the CFO's concerns should be.  When I have listed to CCL's analysts conference calls, their CFO discusses those same items and answers questions from the analysts about those items.  Your hope/expectation for Mr. Liberty is the same as mine.  

 

Glad that our viewpoints match-up as to our perspectives for the backgrounds of the current and upcoming CEO of Royal Caribbean.

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean’s CEO Says ‘the Worst Is Behind Us’ with these highlights: “When he became CEO of the company now known as Royal Caribbean Group 33 years ago, late in Ronald Reagan’s presidency, Richard Fain oversaw a fleet of five ships, versus about 60 today.   Under Fain’s guidance, the company rode a wave of global growth driven by an expanding appetite for cruises among vacationers. He played an important a role in designing much bigger ships with a lot more amenities and developing the company’s private island in the Bahamas, among other achievements.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-ceo-richard-fain-51636587948

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 48,629 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

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Hi Terry, thanks for all the updates. I had no clue Fain was retiring until I saw your thread.  I think you should be nominated for "poster with the best informational threads"🙂

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3 hours ago, Lois R said:

Hi Terry, thanks for all the updates. I had no clue Fain was retiring until I saw your thread.  I think you should be nominated for "poster with the best informational threads"🙂

Totally agree.Terry contributes so much reliable information which all the regulars on SS value and appreciate.Thank you Terry for your regular and informative posts which provide so much to users of the SS board

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On 11/11/2021 at 3:25 PM, brimary said:

Totally agree.Terry contributes so much reliable information which all the regulars on SS value and appreciate.Thank you Terry for your regular and informative posts which provide so much to users of the SS board

 

Super appreciate these very kind comments from wonderful Lois and our good friend in the UK. My initial work and college training was in the journalism field so I understand why focusing on, in the words of early TV's Jack Webb, "Just the Facts, Ma'ma", is so important and valued.     

 

From the CNBC cable business news and MSN Wednesday, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean CEO sees historically strong summer bookings, plans to pay down Covid debt” on an interesting and insightful story that I also posted on the SS Finance thread.   

 

Here are some of the story highlights: “Royal Caribbean outgoing CEO Richard Fain told CNBC on Wednesday the company is seeing historically strong bookings for next summer.  'That will generate the cash flow that we need to pay down the debt, to reinvest in our technology, reinvest in our sustainability efforts, reinvest in our new ships,' he said.  '[The cruise business] has always been a cash flow business. It's a highly capital intensive business, but once you have the ships, they become cash cows,' Fain said in an interview with CNBC's Seema Mody.”

 

Here is more from this reporting: "With international borders reopening after pandemic closures, business from Europe is expected to give the cruise industry a bump. 'The U.S. is the dominant market, but the international markets are growing even faster,' Fain said. 'One of the things we've been very successful at is attracting Europeans to come on our ships in the Caribbean and attracting Americans to go on our ships in the Mediterranean.' Fain said the cruise industry is clearly coming back and the pathway forward is very clear. 'We're about to be starting our new growth phase,' he said. 'As borders begin to open up, as we begin to live life again, all that works in our favor.' "

 

Paying off debt and cruise ships being cash machines are kind of understandable comments/positioning, but how does that viewpoint affect the quality for the upcoming sailing experience?  Fain comes out of a finance background and the next CEO is also a "bean-counter".  People, however,  expect a certain high level of luxury experience with Silversea.  With the new and costly Silversea ships needing funds from the financial mix, how does ALL of these various financial and market factors impact these "quality-level" customer questions and issues?

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/royal-caribbean-ceo-sees-historically-strong-summer-bookings-plans-to-pay-down-covid-debt/ar-AAQxTHU?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 48,276 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

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From the New York Times Travel Section coming Sunday, they will have this headline: “275 Minutes on Hold: Why Airline Customer Service Still Can’t Keep Up with this subhead: "It’s been a familiar and infuriating story during the pandemic: Hours waiting for an agent only to have the call dropped. The ordeal of rescheduling canceled flights. Delayed refunds. What gives?"

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “Over the past few months, customers around the world have been lamenting call wait times and, more broadly, the process of rebooking canceled flights. Virtually every airline’s social media account is overflowing with stories of hourslong waits to speak to someone — even on relatively normal days.  The issues have to do with staffing, according to many airlines, reservation agents and industry analysts, but exactly who or what is to blame depends on whom you ask. Some airlines, including Southwest, have acknowledged that they’ve recently let customers down and need to hire more agents. But other airlines have suggested the exorbitant wait times of early summer are ancient history, something that does not seem to be reflected by customers’ stories.”

 

Before you can board a cruise ship and/or return home from that sailing, most of us will need airline flights.  How is that working these days in order to be able to enjoy the cruise experiences?

 

Here are more specifics from this news story: "Before the pandemic, many airlines employed more reservations agents. But as government travel restrictions and fears of the coronavirus pummeled the airline industry, most companies let people go. Nearly 400 customer representatives at Southwest took voluntary separation packages; a quarter of the American Airlines reservations team elected to leave; and the Dubai-based airline, Emirates, reduced its work force by 31 percent, according to representatives at these companies. In August, The Wall Street Journal reported that Delta’s call center staffing was down 50 percent."

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/travel/airline-customer-service-covid.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 41,736 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

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7 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

But as government travel restrictions and fears of the coronavirus pummeled the airline industry, most companies let people go

 

This issue is not exclusive to the travel industry and is one of the issues that is helping to fuel the economic situation the country is currently facing.  One has to understand why the reduction in force had to be done:  conserve whatever cash a company had during the pandemic.  Employees that are not being productive because there is little/no work to be done?  What else could a company do?  

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3 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

One has to understand why the reduction in force had to be done:  conserve whatever cash a company had during the pandemic.  Employees that are not being productive because there is little/no work to be done?  What else could a company do?

 

Yes, the reasons for cutting workers when travel went to near-zero is understandable. But the staffing issues now are a result of many companies bing caught by surprise that they can't just turn the spigot back on and re-hire as many staff as surging demand requires. Many of those workers who were let go have found new jobs and don't want to go back; some don't have new jobs, but have had time to realize they don't want tot go back to their old job. In the past, businesses have been able to hang out the "we're hiring!" sign and fill their needs relatively quickly; the recovery from this crash has so far proved to be quite different.

 

(It would be interesting to know if cruise lines in general, and luxury cruise lines specifically, are having problems hiring and training staff. From the anecdotal reports we've had over the past five months, it sounds like cruise lines like Silversea and Seabourn have done very well -- far better than the airlines -- in recalling staff and having well-functioning crews aboard the ships they've restarted.)

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Very good, added comments and follow-up from our neighbors in SW Ohio and the Philadelphia suburbs.  Keep up the great sharing! 

 

Dr. Scott Gottlieb is a former FDA Commissioner and was a key consultant to two of the major cruise lines as they have been doing their "Return to Sailing" program.  From Newsweek magazine as they reported, here is their headline this morning: " 'Convoluted Messaging' on Booster Shots Draws Criticism: 'The Data Is Incredibly Clear' " with these details: "Colorado Governor Jared Polis and former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb on Sunday both criticized federal health regulators for not expanding the eligibility criteria for COVID vaccine boosters. The CDC and the FDA recommended booster shots to people who are most vulnerable to COVID. This week, Pfizer asked the FDA to allow all eligible adults to receive the booster shot ahead of the holidays.  Gottlieb lamented the federal government's approach to shots.  'I think the confusing message around the boosters may end up being one of the biggest missed opportunities in this pandemic,' he said during an interview with CBS News' Face the Nation. 'We now see very clear evidence of declining vaccine effectiveness over time. There's different reasons why that may be the case, but the trend is unmistakable.' Gottlieb noted that individuals who received the COVID vaccine 'may only have 50 percent of its effectiveness left' by now. He added that getting the booster is the 'fastest' way to increase its effectiveness and the total immunity in the population."

 

From The Hill and MSN News a week ago, they had this headline: Gottlieb: 'I think that we're close to the end of the pandemic phase of this virus' ” with these highlights: “Former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on Sunday the U.S. is 'close' to the final phase of the coronavirus pandemic.  'I think that we're close to the end of the pandemic phase of this virus, and we're going to enter a more endemic phase and as things improve, cases may pick up,' Gottlieb said during 'Face the Nation' on CBS.  The former FDA official said that while COVID-19 cases may start to trend upward again 'that doesn't mean that we're entering into another wave of infection.' 

 

There is clearly "Good News" as to the vaccines, etc., but there has also been confusion as cases spike up in some areas of the nation and world.  Plus, the need for getting a booster shot seems clear.  BUT, in many parts of the world, they still have not even had much progress for getting the basic vaccine initially.  

 

Full stories at:

https://www.newsweek.com/convoluted-messaging-booster-shots-draws-criticism-data-incredibly-clear-1649115

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gottlieb-i-think-that-were-close-to-the-end-of-the-pandemic-phase-of-this-virus/ar-AAQqpQZ?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,046 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

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7 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

The former FDA official said that while COVID-19 cases may start to trend upward again 'that doesn't mean that we're entering into another wave of infection.' 

 

There is clearly "Good News" as to the vaccines, etc., but there has also been confusion as cases spike up in some areas of the nation and world.

 

Confusion about this disease as been "the name of this game" from the start!  Uninformed, scientifically ignorant countrymen will see an increased spike and will then choose to interpret that in their own way.  The distrust of educated authorities who know what they are talking about has made the pandemic worse.

 

But, some of the officials at the CDC have not been helpful at times.  Today, in the Dayton Daily News I read that one CDC official is now saying that achieving "herd immunity" is not going to happen.  From the start, he said, CDC ought to have been speaking of "community immunity" since the virus does seem to be able to be transmittable even if one is vaccinated.  I interpret this comment as meaning if the government had begun talking about "public responsibility" in dealing with the virus, there might not now be the resistance that we face.  

 

7 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 Plus, the need for getting a booster shot seems clear.  

 

I agree and I will predict that additional booster shots will be needed for the foreseeable future.

 

7 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 BUT, in many parts of the world, they still have not even had much progress for getting the basic vaccine initially.  

 

And, that is not good news for the cruise industry.  Will some potential cruisers consider it more risky to visit parts of the world that are under vaccinated as compared to a vacation at Virginia Beach or a State Park Lodge?  

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16 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

But, some of the officials at the CDC have not been helpful at times.  Today, in the Dayton Daily News I read that one CDC official is now saying that achieving "herd immunity" is not going to happen.  I agree and I will predict that additional booster shots will be needed for the foreseeable future.   And, that is not good news for the cruise industry.  Will some potential cruisers consider it more risky to visit parts of the world that are under vaccinated as compared to a vacation at Virginia Beach or a State Park Lodge?  

 

Appreciate these excellent above comments and follow-up insights from our neighbor in southwestern Ohio.  Know Dayton and the newspaper there well.  The questions and challenges associated with "herd immunity" are interesting and like an adventure into an unknown mystery land.   

 

From the Los Angeles Times this past weekend, they had this headline: What’s it like to go on a cruise now? Here’s how COVID-19 has changed the onboard experience” with these highlights: The cruise industry suffered its biggest financial blow in decades when the COVID-19 pandemic halted most sailings for months and made nervous cruise fans think twice about booking an ocean voyage.  But cruising is back, and all signs point to a turn of the tide for the industry.  Despite the shutdown, the world’s cruise lines have more than 100 new ships on order to set sail by 2027.

 

Here are some of their reporting details for how things are now operating.  This is done through a series of various questions and answers.  A few highlights through their reporting: "Passengers are strongly encouraged to wear masks in public spaces and are required to do so in such indoor areas as elevators, stores, casinos and dining halls, except when eating or drinking. You typically won’t be required to wear masks around the pool and hot tubs, but deck chairs are spaced farther apart than in the past to maintain physical distance.  To go onshore, you must meet the health protocols of the country the ship visits. On some ships, such as Carnival Cruises, unvaccinated passengers are not allowed to go onshore except with a pre-booked 'bubble tour.' On other cruise lines, such as Holland America, shore excursions managed by the ship are strongly encouraged. Most ships are sailing at less than full capacity, partly to encourage physical distancing.  You won’t be lining up at the buffet for meals. Most self-serve buffets have been modified so that employees serve passengers to avoid unnecessary crowding. Indoor dancing, karaoke and nightclubs are no longer allowed on many ships.  To manage capacity and physical distancing, many onboard restaurants recommend reservations and will limit groups at dining tables to eight.  You won’t be required to assemble at a designated spot on the ship to hear the pre-departure safety instruction, also known as the 'safety muster drill.'  Instead, passengers can watch parts of the safety drill on their stateroom televisions or on a cruise ship app."

 

Full story at:

https://www.timesnews.net/living/arts-entertainment/what-s-it-like-to-go-on-a-cruise-now-here-s-how-covid-19/article_49e70302-40c3-11ec-927e-a74f17db2cc3.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,853 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

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Hey Terry, good morning, did you notice the new announcement at the top of the forum? Nov 29th they are having a LIVE Q&A session from SS on here........I am going to register for it just to see what they have to say but I thought you might have some good questions for them👍

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8 hours ago, Lois R said:

Hey Terry, good morning, did you notice the new announcement at the top of the forum? Nov 29th they are having a LIVE Q&A session from SS on here........I am going to register for it just to see what they have to say but I thought you might have some good questions for them👍

 

They know better than to let Terry on that live Q&A... 🤣

 

JK - We will probably miss it as we're flying home then. Will have to check the timing to see if we can join in from the plane, or from the drive home.

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It sounds like the live session is primarily a marketing presentation, to talk about the Silversea innovations  in the past year like S.A.L.T. and Otium, home-to-ship transfers, included excursions, etc. -- things which regular readers here are familiar with but many in the Silversea client base who haven't been closely following cruising news might have missed. I imagine they'll also tout how they safely returned to sailing and their track record dealing with Covid thus far, and how they've re-juggled schedules for the next year. They'll offer a nominal discount program for some cruises to people listening to the presentation. And perhaps they'll finally officially announce the not-so-secret new ship coming in 2023.

 

But I'd be surprised if there are any real surprises during the session. 😉  

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3 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Based on prior experience, I’ll be absolutely floored if your last two prognostications (discount and new ship announcement) come to pass during this event. 

 

Well, the announcement about the session promises a "special promotion for attendees only". So you think "special promotion" is something like luggage tags or embroidered face masks rather than a booking discount? 😉

 

I have no idea whether she'll talk about the new ship, but it would fit with a positive-news-about-cruising session. And if it will enter service in less than two years, one would think they'd want to start selling cruises fairly soon.

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When I registered for this I asked what she thinks re will our Alaska cruise still be Vancouver to Seward and whether UK people will still be welcome in USA.  Of course no-one really knows, but hopefully she will be upbeat about this? I would like her to address our questions, as it is mainly us who are attending probably not new people needing marketing to?

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10 hours ago, cruiseej said:

 

Well, the announcement about the session promises a "special promotion for attendees only". So you think "special promotion" is something like luggage tags or embroidered face masks rather than a booking discount? 😉

 

I have no idea whether she'll talk about the new ship, but it would fit with a positive-news-about-cruising session. And if it will enter service in less than two years, one would think they'd want to start selling cruises fairly soon.

You may be right.  I haven’t even clicked the link or read the details yet.  If the special promotion ends up being a discount, it’ll be the first time in my recollection here since I joined CC.  Guess I better sign-up, just in case.

 

I imagine any new ship talk will be all about the launch of Silver Moon this year and Silver Dawn next year. I just think they‘ll hold off on any news of the new Evolution class of ships until they release new itineraries sometime next year.

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9 hours ago, worldtraveller99 said:

When I registered for this I asked what she thinks re will our Alaska cruise still be Vancouver to Seward and whether UK people will still be welcome in USA.  Of course no-one really knows, but hopefully she will be upbeat about this? I would like her to address our questions, as it is mainly us who are attending probably not new people needing marketing to?

 

How can she possibly address what the status of Covid and what international travel restrictions may be in 6+ months from now?

 

As for Alaska, Vancouver-Seward is the standard, and there's no reason to believe it won't be as advertised at this point. The special circumstance in 2021 which required alternate itineraries was that Canada was closed to cruise ships -- but the expectation is that will not be in force in 2022. If Canada should reverse course and ban cruise ships in 2022, that's something she can't know. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/16/2021 at 7:28 PM, jpalbny said:

They know better than to let Terry on that live Q&A... 🤣

 

Appreciate this wonderful tip from Lois and the fun, great comment from J.P.  YES, I did sign up and register for this program on Monday afternoon.  Agree that it will be mainly a "sales spin".  Not expecting too much candor and honest discussions.  Especially given the breaking news today as outlined below.  Not a good time for cruise lines, airlines, etc.??

 

From the Washington Post this afternoon, they had this headline: Announcement of new virus variant alarms world, as stocks crash and flights are banned, is a big "SHOCKER" to the travel world, etc.  The stock of the Silversea parent was down 13% with this bad news and the value of the other two major cruise companies was down 11%.  Not good news??

 

Here are some of the story highlights: “A new, possibly more infectious coronavirus variant, with an unusual number of mutations, had scientists sounding the alarm and countries including the United States moving to impose travel restrictions as the world feared another setback on the long road out of the pandemic.  Senior Biden administration officials announced Friday that starting Monday, travel to the United States will be restricted from South Africa and seven other countries — Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe. The new policy, which does not affect U.S. citizens and permanent residents, was enacted “out of an abundance of caution,” officials said, as public health officials work to learn more about the new variant.  On Friday, the World Health Organization declared the new strain a 'variant of concern' after a full-day review by the group’s scientists and dubbed it the 'omicron' variant, named for a Greek letter.”

 

Here is more from this reporting at mid afternoon Friday: "The omicron variant was first detected in Botswana, but scientists in South Africa convened a news conference Thursday and said they had linked it to an exponential rise of infections in their country. Cases have also been identified in Hong Kong and Belgium, Israel and other countries.  By the next morning, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged about 800 points or 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 1.5 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index was off 1.1 percent. Crude oil prices tumbled as well."

 

Full story at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/europe-south-africa-variant-coronavirus/2021/11/26/0f7f5a78-4e99-11ec-a7b8-9ed28bf23929_story.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 20,174 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

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2 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Not good news!  Just when some of us thought we were seeing some light at the end of the tunnel, that light was an on coming train.  Again.  

 

Yesterday the talk was about "nu" variant but that did not last, now we've got a more ominous sounding "omicron" (details and stats, in particular hospitalizations and death stats with patient specific details, still pending).  What next, "Andromeda strain" ?? 😟

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52 minutes ago, Catlover54 said:

What next, "Andromeda strain" ?

 

I have stated this on some Forums of CC since 2020, is this Armageddon's beginning?  And, now continuing with a new mutant?  Surely different than the Book of Revelation envisioned, but, it seems to me to be a possibly appropriate 21st Century version of the story told in Revelations.  

 

For all of our of sake, I hope that I am wrong in my thinking.  

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