Are we ever going to get to cruise again?

[PhillyFan33579]

10 hours ago, ray98 said:

Maybe you should work on your reading comprehension.  The charade is the ever evolving response that isn't working.  We locked down, we wore masks, we shut down to the point many small businesses and entire industries are being destroyed.  Yet, here we are again with another spike as bad as the first proving none of those tactics work.  It is a community spread virus and we can't outsmart it.

I will never understand destroying our economy, destroying the lives of millions of people who are now unemployed, etc. over a virus that has a fatality rate around 2 percent. I understand the seriousness of this virus but I also understand we have to learn to live with this virus. Fortunately I live in Florida where our governor understands shutting down the state does more harm than good. Our state has been open for a month now and our COVID-19 numbers are not significantly worse than any other state with numerous restrictions (that continue to grow) in place. 

[jimbo5544]

2 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Well, it might depend on how many new names there are.

 

Or how about the "cruise line once known as Carnival", and the same for other new names.

 

And having fun in these stressful times is important for maintaining one's mental health.

All so true

[PhillyFan33579]

2 minutes ago, skridge said:

One thing all of these cruise companies have going for them is the creditors really don't want to own a bunch of billion dollar boats.  When you repossess a house you can just resell it and get some of your money back.  Not much of a market for billion dollar cruise ships.  They would get pennies on the dollar and take a serious bath on it.

I agree with you. I was just conveying  the point that bankruptcy is not a simple solution and creditors have the right to seize assets. It’s highly unlikely, but a creditor could seize all of Carnival’s ships    and start their own cruise line. 

[skridge]

Just now, PhillyFan33579 said:

I agree with you. I was just conveying  the point that bankruptcy is not a simple solution and creditors have the right to seize assets. It’s highly unlikely, but a creditor could seize all of Carnival’s ships    and start their own cruise line. 

I don't think Bank of America knows much about running a cruise line.  Before some know it all comes in and says B of A is not a creditor, I was just using that as an example.

[PhillyFan33579]

5 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

All good, no bankruptcy for CCL.

Agree for now, but at some point even the major cruise lines are going to have serious financial issues if their ships can’t sail. Hopefully vaccine(s) will be available soon that help to contain the spread of this virus. That appears to be the best option on the table right now that will allow cruises to resume from US ports sooner than later.  

[Elkins45]

I sort of feel like the real question is which companies will still be in business when we finally start sailing?
 

I have one of the Carnival credit cards and I have enough points saved up for a really nice cruise, but there’s this nagging voice in the back of my head that says I should just use them to pay my bills for a couple of months before Carnival goes belly up and those points mean nothing.

[KirkNC]

1 minute ago, Elkins45 said:

I sort of feel like the real question is which companies will still be in business when we finally start sailing?
 

I have one of the Carnival credit cards and I have enough points saved up for a really nice cruise, but there’s this nagging voice in the back of my head that says I should just use them to pay my bills for a couple of months before Carnival goes belly up and those points mean nothing.

Why not use it to pay your bills and put your money that you would have used in a cookie jar for a future cruise?

[skridge]

2 minutes ago, Elkins45 said:

I sort of feel like the real question is which companies will still be in business when we finally start sailing?
 

I have one of the Carnival credit cards and I have enough points saved up for a really nice cruise, but there’s this nagging voice in the back of my head that says I should just use them to pay my bills for a couple of months before Carnival goes belly up and those points mean nothing.

Could you use the points to pay some bills and take the money you would have used to pay the bills and put it in a money market until this thing blows over.  I guess if the points can only be used to buy a Carnival Cruise you need to pray to whomever it is you pray to that this vaccine works out.

[Elkins45]

4 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Why not use it to pay your bills and put your money that you would have used in a cookie jar for a future cruise?

The main reason is that I can get 1.5X value for them if I use them for a Carnival purchase over $1500, meaning $1200 would become $1800 if used to pay for a cruise + excursion instead of $1200 in other spending. It’s sort of a calculated gamble of potential future savings against a lesser amount of “free money” now.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Elkins45

[KirkNC]

Just now, Elkins45 said:

The main reason is that I can get 1.5X value for them if I use them for a Carnival purchase over $1500, meaning $1200 would become $1800 if used to pay for a cruise + excursion instead of $1200 in other spending.

Well you know the old saying about a bird in the hand.  Realistically I doubt CCL will go bankrupt but they probably will be a significantly different company when this is over.  Look at all the debt issued and millions of shares of dilution in equity.  

[skridge]

1 minute ago, Elkins45 said:

The main reason is that I can get 1.5X value for them if I use them for a Carnival purchase over $1500, meaning $1200 would become $1800 if used to pay for a cruise + excursion instead of $1200 in other spending.

A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  Is that right?  I guess you would have to change it to 1.5 in the bush.

[KirkNC]

2 minutes ago, skridge said:

A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  Is that right?  I guess you would have to change it to 1.5 in the bush.

There you go!

[Elkins45]

4 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Well you know the old saying about a bird in the hand.  Realistically I doubt CCL will go bankrupt but they probably will be a significantly different company when this is over.  Look at all the debt issued and millions of shares of dilution in equity.  

Yes, the more I think about it the more the bird in hand looks good.

I used to think I was a smart person but as it turns out I was a victim of marketing. The Carnival card gives you 1 “fun point” for every $100 in spending. They signed me up for one when we booked our Alaska cruise and I used it for everything for the next three years to accumulate the points I have now.  What’s funny about that is I was previously paying for everything with Discover. I gave up a 3% return for a 1% return. Dumb.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Elkins45

[jimbo5544]

44 minutes ago, skridge said:

Could you use the points to pay some bills and take the money you would have used to pay the bills and put it in a money market until this thing blows over.  I guess if the points can only be used to buy a Carnival Cruise you need to pray to whomever it is you pray to that this vaccine works out.

Two at 95% effectiveness seems pretty close to working out  In the interim, they will be testing length of protection so we are covered there also...

[GA Dave]

NCL is pushing that bankruptcy can down the road again.

 

NCLH To Release More Stock

[richstowe]

42 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

NCL is pushing that bankruptcy can down the road again.

 

NCLH To Release More Stock

Maybe we can double down with some Hertz shares ?

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, GA Dave said:

NCL is pushing that bankruptcy can down the road again.

 

NCLH To Release More Stock

Their position is significantly more precarious than CCL or RCCL.  If the cdc recents on the rescission of the no sail order, it could signal a-bankruptcy decision, or something significant like moving the entire fleet out of the control of the cdc (Europe, Far East, etc). 

[SNJCruisers]

6 hours ago, ontheweb said:

 

Or how about the "cruise line once known as Carnival", and the same for other new names.

Another option would be to just have a symbol, similar to "the artist formally known as Prince".

[skridge]

4 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Two at 95% effectiveness seems pretty close to working out  In the interim, they will be testing length of protection so we are covered there also...

This is assuming that Carnival will be able to make it until the vaccine clears things up.  I know it is your opinion that Carnival has unlimited money and no matter what happens could never go bankrupt.  I just am of the opinion that if it were me I would take the cash and not take my chances.  Am I allowed to have an opinion oh great one?   I don't think Carnival will go bankrupt in light of the vaccination mentioned above, but I would still take the bird in hand instead of the 1.5% under the bush.  At the end of the day, I don't even use credit cards. 

[john91498]

Should revisit this in 8 months when Carnival runs out of money..

[ontheweb]

40 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

Another option would be to just have a symbol, similar to "the artist formally known as Prince".

Yes, I almost added that to my post that you quoted.

[SNJCruisers]

23 minutes ago, john91498 said:

Should revisit this in 8 months when Carnival runs out of money..

Since Carnival Corporation is at the top of the food chain, if your prognostication comes true, then the industry is dead.

On the other hand, if you're a glass is half full person, how about the two 95% positive vaccines allows each cruise line to have a handful of ships sailing by July 1.

[john91498]

I meant to say "when Carnival starts to run out of money." They might do another stock offer or try to get another line of credit. At least with that, they can hang on for a little while longer.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

4 hours ago, richstowe said:

Maybe we can double down with some Hertz shares ?

     The fascinating similarities between so many bankruptcies is the presence of crippling debt ... sometimes from LBOs, but very often from over-compensated executives who simply used the credit card to keep their $$ flowing in until the whole thing collapsed.

    Sounds mighty familiar to the cruise lines.

    If they make it out of the pandemic, they'll be saddled with five boatloads of debt. And that cannot be repaid by charging bargain fares mixed with quality service .... expect to pay more & get less.

[Tippyton]

10 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Two at 95% effectiveness seems pretty close to working out  In the interim, they will be testing length of protection so we are covered there also...

WE'RE GOOD!