I have seen the future, and here is the info to watch....

[Eddie Wilson]

Return to cruising, test cruises, new normal,....I have consulted my crystal ball (overturned fish bowl) and here is what my old tired eyes see.....

60 million people vaccinated is the first bend point.  Prior to that level, the number of hospitalizations may go down some, but two weeks after 60 million it should be in free fall.  Four weeks after 60 millions the number of deaths per day should also be in free fall.  

 

100 million people vaccinated is the next bend point.  Shortly after that, the number of cases will finally show dramatic downturns.  

 

I would guess test cruises should commence closer to the second bend point.  Test cruise protocols will take some time, 45 to 60 days let’s estimate, and the first few limited passenger sailings may commence about 60 days after 100 million vaccinated.  Placing in service more ships per carrier per month, until the ships are a sail.  I would say as they reach 200 million, and 250 million, and so on the ships occupancy rates will be increased to 60%, 70% and so on.

 

I am not clairvoyant, never predicted anything correctly prior, but have been trying to master the craft in the service of frustrated cruisers needing to know.   

 

Of of course new variants will change the prediction.  Same with new policies.

At your service, Eddie

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by Eddie Wilson

[CanadaRob]

Hmm, I’ll take your crystal ball gazing,  projections nationally for 100million vaccine timeline?  Looks like 6 months ish?

[ReneeFLL]

2 hours ago, Eddie Wilson said:

....I have consulted my crystal ball (overturned fish bowl) ...

 

I hope your poor fishy wasn’t still in the fish bowl. 🐠🐠 😸

[ONECRUISER]

9 minutes ago, CanadaRob said:

Hmm, I’ll take your crystal ball gazing,  projections nationally for 100million vaccine timeline?  Looks like 6 months ish?

Agree. And with some area Hospitals running 26-33% of Medical people deciding not to get Vaccine, 30+ percent non-essential declining, millions kids w/o a Vaccine we'll never hit 200 Million Vaccinated this yr or maybe ever. Long as enough get it or had CV, Herd Immunity happens might be enough

[The Grumpus]

[bucfan2]

7 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

Agree. And with some area Hospitals running 26-33% of Medical people deciding not to get Vaccine, 30+ percent non-essential declining, millions kids w/o a Vaccine we'll never hit 200 Million Vaccinated this yr or maybe ever. Long as enough get it or had CV, Herd Immunity happens might be enough

 

It is interesting to see the numbers on those choosing to decline...it appears the 'stay scared' montra wasn't enough to push everyone to jump at getting the vaccine.  Certainly will affect the timeline on Herd Immunity.

[JBSteelerfan]

[smokeybandit]

8 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

Agree. And with some area Hospitals running 26-33% of Medical people deciding not to get Vaccine, 30+ percent non-essential declining, millions kids w/o a Vaccine we'll never hit 200 Million Vaccinated this yr or maybe ever. Long as enough get it or had CV, Herd Immunity happens might be enough

 

We don't get anywhere close to 200 million for the flu vaccine, why would we expect it for covid?

[crewsweeper]

Based on what we're reading about in COVID cases, if the majority of the most at risk population get vaccines, that would be a big step forward.  Most of the rest of the population can survive through the symptoms and illness.  many testing positive may have already been through the inflection.  There are, as always, exceptions to these "milder" cases.  But for the most part, if the cruise community vaccinates, we'll all be able to cruise.  Be very skeptical of any video or news reports on side affects from vaccines.  Most of these side affects are unrelated to the vaccine, but related to other conditions a person may have.  They are also, very rare.  For example 10 cases of side affects from Moderna versus millions of vaccinations.

[CaroleSS]

Just a few questions as I don't know.....not sure if anyone knows the answers, but I will ask anyway.
 

I've read that the vaccine is an mRNA. This means that it genetically modifies your cells to generate an antibody to protect you from the virus.

 

With that in mind, if someone gets COVID, do they automatically get antibodies? Do those antibodies help protect them from getting COVID again....the same as with the vaccine? If antibodies keep you from getting it another time, do you still need the vaccine? 
 

I've read that you can get COVID twice. Does that mean that you can get the vaccine and still get COVID more than once? The vaccine helps to minimize symptoms if you get COVID.....it does not prevent you from spreading the disease.
 

Sorry for all the questions, but these are the things that make me go "hmmmm". Can someone please help?

 

 

[WECRUISEUK]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

 

We don't get anywhere close to 200 million for the flu vaccine, why would we expect it for covid?

People will eventually wake up and realise this free vaccine helps to protect you and save your life,plus your activities could become limited without it in the near future.

[smokeybandit]

30 minutes ago, CaroleSS said:

Just a few questions as I don't know.....not sure if anyone knows the answers, but I will ask anyway.
 

I've read that the vaccine is an mRNA. This means that it genetically modifies your cells to generate an antibody to protect you from the virus.

 

With that in mind, if someone gets COVID, do they automatically get antibodies? Do those antibodies help protect them from getting COVID again....the same as with the vaccine? If antibodies keep you from getting it another time, do you still need the vaccine? 
 

I've read that you can get COVID twice. Does that mean that you can get the vaccine and still get COVID more than once? The vaccine helps to minimize symptoms if you get COVID.....it does not prevent you from spreading the disease.
 

Sorry for all the questions, but these are the things that make me go "hmmmm". Can someone please help?

 

 

 

It doesn't genetically modify cells. It simply gives the cells an instruction to generate a protein (that the virus uses to attack cells)  that will cause an immune response.  That's where your antibodies come from.

 

And sure you can get covid more than once, just like some people get the flu every year. But most people who claim they got it more than once actually haven't.

[hallux]

33 minutes ago, CaroleSS said:

I've read that the vaccine is an mRNA. This means that it genetically modifies your cells to generate an antibody to protect you from the virus.

No, it's NOT modifying your cells.  The mRNA portion of it is what your body is detecting to then learn how to make the antibodies.

 

See this CDC page on how the vaccine works - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/different-vaccines/mrna.html

 

33 minutes ago, CaroleSS said:

With that in mind, if someone gets COVID, do they automatically get antibodies? Do those antibodies help protect them from getting COVID again....the same as with the vaccine? If antibodies keep you from getting it another time, do you still need the vaccine? 

If someone gets COVID their body does build antibodies, that's how the body works and is the basis for vaccinations.  The long-term effectiveness of that "immunity" is in question and getting the vaccine is still suggested.

 

I should also note that a COVID-recovered person can test positive for 3-5 months after infection.  If they get sick with a virus with similar symptoms during that time and get tested, they may end up with a false positive...

Edited January 20, 2021 by hallux

[smokeybandit]

You can also test positive 3 months after the fact of merely being exposed, even if you were never "sick" 

[Eddie Wilson]

10 hours ago, ReneeFLL said:

I hope your poor fishy wasn’t still in the fish bowl. 🐠🐠 😸

Fishy actually jumped out of bowl some 20 years ago.  Found him/her on ground one day.

 

59 minutes ago, CaroleSS said:

I've read that the vaccine is an mRNA. This means that it genetically modifies your cells to generate an antibody to protect you from the virus.

 

With that in mind, if someone gets COVID, do they automatically get antibodies? Do those antibodies help protect them from getting COVID again....the same as with the vaccine? If antibodies keep you from getting it another time, do you still need the vaccine? 
 

I've read that you can get COVID twice. Does that mean that you can get the vaccine and still get COVID more than once? 

 

 

 

The AstraZeneca vaccine is not mRNA, it is the 75+ years of science in vaccines like polio and other common vaccines.  Only problem is, US has ordered 300 million doses, but says they won’t get around to authorizing its use until April or so?  UK, India, EU and other nations have approved, or in EU case perhaps next week will approve, so why the delay?  Since it’s based on old science, they have 30 or more world wide labs approved to produce, it can be stored in a refrigerator for 6 months, and 2 weeks after the first dose the numbers show cases requiring hospitalization is close to nil (0).  

As for longevity of immunity, no one is sure yet, but this Covid is in the SARS family, and SARS immunity is presently about 20 years, as people hit with it at the turn of this century still show immunity.

 

I agree 200 million may be difficult to reach, but the important step is the first 60 million which will cover the bulk of the American population 65+. I have read (don’t ask where, because I don’t recall) that the elderly population is less likely to opt out of the vaccine.  This being the case, hospitalizations will go down, then deaths, and we will see light at the end of the tunnel.

 I also read Joe Biden wishes to have 100 million vaccinations in first 100 days.  I hope they succeed, but they may not.  Looking at the crystal ball again, if that goal is reached, 60 million people (due to 2 injections required) would be hit in April, and numbers going down Shortly thereafter. Could work to test cruises in June or July, and a few ships starting service in August.  I think that is if everything goes according to Hoyle.  Any blip pushes thing into 4th quarter.

 

Eddie

 

[fred30]

29 minutes ago, Eddie Wilson said:

 I also read Joe Biden wishes to have 100 million vaccinations in first 100 days.

 

 

 

That should be no problem since we are already at that level.   Last week 6.3 millions shot where given out and that was with a holiday(MLK) in there. 

[Eddie Wilson]

2 minutes ago, fred30 said:

That should be no problem since we are already at that level.   Last week 6.3 millions shot where given out and that was with a holiday(MLK) in there. 

 

Boy I hope they can keep that pace up.  Kentucky reported that their allotment of vaccines for next week was halved, and I have heard Ohio’s was also reduced for next week.

Eddie

[fred30]

3 minutes ago, Eddie Wilson said:

 

Boy I hope they can keep that pace up.  Kentucky reported that their allotment of vaccines for next week was halved, and I have heard Ohio’s was also reduced for next week.

Eddie

That rate will keep on increasing.  The issue will be if production can keep pace. 

[CaroleSS]

1 hour ago, hallux said:

 

If someone gets COVID their body does build antibodies, that's how the body works and is the basis for vaccinations.  The long-term effectiveness of that "immunity" is in question and getting the vaccine is still suggested.

So those that have had the virus don't need the vaccine. That means 24 million don't need it.

[Eddie Wilson]

3 minutes ago, fred30 said:

That rate will keep on increasing.  The issue will be if production can keep pace. 

 

I sincerely hope so.  

 

Wouldnt it it be nice if my inverted fish bowl was LATER than reality?  That being test cruises May/June, limited sailings beginning July 2021.

 

I do subordinate my foresight to the Magic 8 ball referenced in these boards, as I have not mastered clairvoyance, but am still working on it.

 

Eddie

[crewsweeper]

9 minutes ago, CaroleSS said:

So those that have had the virus don't need the vaccine. That means 24 million don't need it.

Short answer, yes.  But appears those antibodies don't last forever and there's some studies going on the check how long the vaccine will work.  5-6 months was last I heard, but hope is for at least a year.

[orville99]

12 hours ago, CanadaRob said:

Hmm, I’ll take your crystal ball gazing,  projections nationally for 100million vaccine timeline?  Looks like 6 months ish?

According to Bloomberg the U.S. is running at a pace of 800,000+ per day, with a current total of ~17 Million. At that pace we will hit 50 Million in ~42 days. At that pace it will take another ~60 days to hit 100 Million. Once the J&J vaccine is approved, the pace is expected to double, so my overturned fishbowl says late April - early May to get to 100 Million.

Globally, it is already over 50 million.

 

[fred30]

20 minutes ago, crewsweeper said:

Short answer, yes.  But appears those antibodies don't last forever and there's some studies going on the check how long the vaccine will work.  5-6 months was last I heard, but hope is for at least a year.

Moderna said their vaccine should last at least 1 year.  Hopefully Phizer's would be similar or better

[Eddie Wilson]

6 hours ago, CaroleSS said:

So those that have had the virus don't need the vaccine. That means 24 million don't need it.

 

The number of 24 million everyone knows is low, as that is positive cases.  I think a recent study estimates the actual figure of people in US who have been infected is three times, or about  72 to 75 million.  

But they don’t know how long active Immunity lasts.

5 hours ago, orville99 said:

According to Bloomberg the U.S. is running at a pace of 800,000+ per day, with a current total of ~17 Million. At that pace we will hit 50 Million in ~42 days. At that pace it will take another ~60 daysto hit 100 Million. 

 

I am not checking math, but remember it’s two doses per person, so may take a little longer.

[orville99]

14 hours ago, Eddie Wilson said:

I am not checking math, but remember it’s two doses per person, so may take a little longer.

The J&J vaccine only requires one dose, and it will be out within a month. While it is true that the other three (Pfizer, Moderna, and AZ) currently being administered (AZ only in Europe) require two doses to reach full effectivity, the first dose effectivity of all three is in the ~80% range and the second dose comes 21-28 days after the first. Even if you add a 28 day lag for the second dose to the timeline, you are still only at ~130 days to reach 100 Million.