WDW here I come. LOL

[DaCruiseBug]

7 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

Vacation prices are going to skyrocket everywhere as this pandemic ends. It is very similar to the 2009 crash. My then 3yo daughter and family loved going to WDW. We could go for a week and spend less than $2,000. Then it went to $3,000, then $4,000. It is now out of what I am willing to pay. Similar things will be happening to cruises, WDW, and other destinations as many families haven't vacationed for 2 years now. Popular destinations are getting in on it and going AI at lower price points. For comparison, I can go to Cancun at an AI for ~$3,000 still. Cruises are pushing $4-$5k. These island port nations have found that more money comes in from AI resorts than cruise ships. They are going to refocus their travel industry which may cause cruise ships so pain.

 

You can book a NICE all-inclusive in Cancun for 7 nights (2 adults) for about $1,500-2,000 total and airfare is still super cheap.

 

If pricing for cruising doesn't come down then they're going to price themselves considerably above a land based vacation and you'll see a substantial percentage of people do land based vacations instead of cruising.

[DaCruiseBug]

52 minutes ago, HuliHuli said:

As I said in Post #7, "As for supply and demand, there is virtually no supply, despite what shows on the booking pages (ships are not sailing), but clearly pent-up demand based on the dialog here on CC and elsewhere."  The principal of supply and demand does not go away just because supply effectively goes to zero.  Indeed as evidenced by this thread, consumers begin to look for a product similar enough to satiate their demand to travel/vacation, to wit WDW.

 

CC makes up maybe 5% of all cruise passengers and it's usually the most ardent cruising supporters that visit this page. Cruise bookings for 2H 2021 are still down compared to pre-covid.

[pghflyer]

I have also been shocked at the prices for the last year............however, on FB page for NCL everyone is indicating that ships are currently being capped at 40-50% of capacity for bookings........which starts to explain why our prices are much higher than normal.  I would place some value on going on a less busy ship (not as much as the value implied by the current pricing though ha).  And I am sure that should an official agency declare they are permitted to book up to 100% of capacity, all those cabins would instantly be available for sale and if you are past your cancel date, your price will not be adjusted.

 

Just a lot to weight about making any real plans with all these balls in the air.

[DaCruiseBug]

13 minutes ago, pghflyer said:

I have also been shocked at the prices for the last year............however, on FB page for NCL everyone is indicating that ships are currently being capped at 40-50% of capacity for bookings........which starts to explain why our prices are much higher than normal.  I would place some value on going on a less busy ship (not as much as the value implied by the current pricing though ha).  And I am sure that should an official agency declare they are permitted to book up to 100% of capacity, all those cabins would instantly be available for sale and if you are past your cancel date, your price will not be adjusted.

 

Just a lot to weight about making any real plans with all these balls in the air.

 

The cruise lines are ok with starting out at 40-50% capacity (although there has been no announcement that this is indeed happening) because they'll lose money operating at that capacity but they'll lose less than they are now. Even with the higher fares.

[HuliHuli]

1 hour ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

CC makes up maybe 5% of all cruise passengers and it's usually the most ardent cruising supporters that visit this page. Cruise bookings for 2H 2021 are still down compared to pre-covid.

I'll be happy to see your source data to validate that "CC makes up maybe 5% of all cruise passengers," and that they are "the most ardent" not that it matters for purposes of this discussion.

 

Yes, since we're on an NCL thread, I acknowledge that in their latest report, NCLH held that "the Company’s overall cumulative booked position for the second half of 2021 remains below historical levels, driven by continued uncertainty around timing of the resumption of cruising and the shift of limited marketing investments to 2022 sailings."  But they also noted that while still early in the booking cycle, 2022 booking trends are very positive driven by strong pent up demand [while at the same time]  experiencing robust future demand across all brands with the overall cumulative booked position for the first half of 2022 significantly ahead of 2019’s record level.

 

That said, what's your point in Post #27?

[DaCruiseBug]

53 minutes ago, HuliHuli said:

I'll be happy to see your source data to validate that "CC makes up maybe 5% of all cruise passengers," and that they are "the most ardent" not that it matters for purposes of this discussion.

 

Yes, since we're on an NCL thread, I acknowledge that in their latest report, NCLH held that "the Company’s overall cumulative booked position for the second half of 2021 remains below historical levels, driven by continued uncertainty around timing of the resumption of cruising and the shift of limited marketing investments to 2022 sailings."  But they also noted that while still early in the booking cycle, 2022 booking trends are very positive driven by strong pent up demand [while at the same time]  experiencing robust future demand across all brands with the overall cumulative booked position for the first half of 2022 significantly ahead of 2019’s record level.

 

That said, what's your point in Post #27?

 

NCL saying "robust future demand across all brands" is just like saying "premium drink package". Unless they release actual figures it means absolutely nothing. They're just trying to "wow" investors and shareholders.

[HuliHuli]

1 minute ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

NCL saying "robust future demand across all brands" is just like saying "premium drink package". Unless they release actual figures it means absolutely nothing. They're just trying to "wow" investors and shareholders.

Totally apples and oranges, but of course their financial reports do provide discrete insight into bookings, prospective and actual revenues, etc.  That is all required by law and you are welcome to scour those reports to search for discrete data that supports your misinformed narrative.  Happy hunting; I'm done.

[AstoriaPreppy]

18 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

My then 3yo daughter and family loved going to WDW. We could go for a week and spend less than $2,000. Then it went to $3,000, then $4,000.

Wait, you don’t think Pop Century is worth $220 a night? Speak for yourself, but I prefer a vacation with walls so thin I can hear conversations on both sides of me. 😉

[BirdTravels]

On 3/10/2021 at 5:50 PM, Topdog52 said:

What does that got to do with anything. So you have some rich people probably in politics if this is even true. NCL is so busy that I have gotten 3 Pamphlets in a 1 1/2 weeks telling me about this great 30% Promo that is ending soon. The only ones booking are the FCC people and that will stop soon seeing they quit giving a 10% discount for every cancelled cruise that you have booked. The Alaska cruise Has gone up $1500 and that is with a 30% discount on top. Good Luck NCL selling cruise at a 40 to 50% increase!!!

No, 10% discount is still there. The both the April and May cancellations had the 10% discount on any fare for a future cruise. My April cancellation also had a 30% discount for immediate rebooking. Cruise sales are going good. 

[FLAHAM]

Last spring, I booked a solo club balcony on a Dawn transatlantic in April 2022 for $5.0K.  It is now priced at $20.7K.  

 

[Topdog52]

14 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

No, 10% discount is still there. The both the April and May cancellations had the 10% discount on any fare for a future cruise. My April cancellation also had a 30% discount for immediate rebooking. Cruise sales are going good. 

Good Luck trying to cash both in. NCL's new policy as they have changed in mid stream is only one discount per person. 

[bookbabe]

Our Dec 2021 PoA holiday cruise in an owners suite is now about $22k usd.  We booked in Dec 2019 for $15k usd.  Really hoping it doesn’t get cancelled since the rebook will cost way more than any potential discounts.

[tallyho8]

WDW is/was my favorite place to go. We went on Friday, December 11, 2020 and there was a very small crowd in the morning but it grew in the afternoon. We were able to go on quite a few attractions with hardly no wait but there was always a wait to get anything to eat because you needed a reservation and the reservations were usually all booked up by 7 AM. You could wait at a take out line but when they brought the food to you, you could not eat there, you had to take your food and go looking around for some place to sit and eat. Seats were fairly scarce.

 

We went back Thursday, February 23, 2021, figuring that they would still not be crowded in the morning. WRONG! They were packed. Lines for any attraction were at least an hour wait going to 2 hours wait around noon. Food was almost impossible to get as you needed reservations to go in any place that sold food and all reservations were sold out before we got there when they opened. Since food places only were sitting at 25% occupancy you had to find a place somewhere else to sit and eat if you waited in the to-go line. By the time we found a place to sit the food was cold and we were tired. We only got to go to 2 attractions that day and they were not the top ones on our list. everything is vey slow because they are only letting about 25% to 33% of the seats on the rides to be occupied.

 

You could not pay me enough to try to go there during spring break while all of the restrictions are still in place. $120 entry per person per day for a ride on one attraction of your choice, no way.

Edited March 18, 2021 by tallyho8

[GA Dave]

14 hours ago, tallyho8 said:

WDW is/was my favorite place to go. We went on Friday, December 11, 2020 and there was a very small crowd in the morning but it grew in the afternoon. We were able to go on quite a few attractions with hardly no wait but there was always a wait to get anything to eat because you needed a reservation and the reservations were usually all booked up by 7 AM. You could wait at a take out line but when they brought the food to you, you could not eat there, you had to take your food and go looking around for some place to sit and eat. Seats were fairly scarce.

 

We went back Thursday, February 23, 2021, figuring that they would still not be crowded in the morning. WRONG! They were packed. Lines for any attraction were at least an hour wait going to 2 hours wait around noon. Food was almost impossible to get as you needed reservations to go in any place that sold food and all reservations were sold out before we got there when they opened. Since food places only were sitting at 25% occupancy you had to find a place somewhere else to sit and eat if you waited in the to-go line. By the time we found a place to sit the food was cold and we were tired. We only got to go to 2 attractions that day and they were not the top ones on our list. everything is vey slow because they are only letting about 25% to 33% of the seats on the rides to be occupied.

 

You could not pay me enough to try to go there during spring break while all of the restrictions are still in place. $120 entry per person per day for a ride on one attraction of your choice, no way.

Here is a good example of Spring Break wait times at Universal Studios today.  These are actually a little lower than I saw earlier in the week.  It has been crazy, with some attractions running 180+ minutes.

Edited March 18, 2021 by GA Dave

[Island Crazed]

On 3/17/2021 at 11:30 PM, tallyho8 said:

WDW is/was my favorite place to go. We went on Friday, December 11, 2020 and there was a very small crowd in the morning but it grew in the afternoon. We were able to go on quite a few attractions with hardly no wait but there was always a wait to get anything to eat because you needed a reservation and the reservations were usually all booked up by 7 AM. You could wait at a take out line but when they brought the food to you, you could not eat there, you had to take your food and go looking around for some place to sit and eat. Seats were fairly scarce.

 

We went back Thursday, February 23, 2021, figuring that they would still not be crowded in the morning. WRONG! They were packed. Lines for any attraction were at least an hour wait going to 2 hours wait around noon. Food was almost impossible to get as you needed reservations to go in any place that sold food and all reservations were sold out before we got there when they opened. Since food places only were sitting at 25% occupancy you had to find a place somewhere else to sit and eat if you waited in the to-go line. By the time we found a place to sit the food was cold and we were tired. We only got to go to 2 attractions that day and they were not the top ones on our list. everything is vey slow because they are only letting about 25% to 33% of the seats on the rides to be occupied.

 

You could not pay me enough to try to go there during spring break while all of the restrictions are still in place. $120 entry per person per day for a ride on one attraction of your choice, no way.

We were at MK when the announced closing broke (3/12/20).  We returned 9/11-21/20 and it was hot in masks but lines were not too bad except some popular rides.  They were still running most rides per family/group. 

 

In December 1-5 they had added more plex/vinyl dividers and were filling up rides better - faster lines.

 

Feb 1-9 the lines moved real fast.  At Hollywood Studio on a Sunday,  we rode EVERY ride except Slinky-dog BEFORE lunch. 0, 5 and 10 min waits).  I hope fast passes NEVER return.

 

Spring break is always busy and with people feeling better about travel, cruises canceled, and reduced numbers allowed in the parks, space is limited.  Over half the Disney hotels and 33+% of the restaurants are not open.  And most live performances haven't returned.  Historically we never visit Disney peak holiday weeks. (President's Day week is BAD, Spring break especially the week before and after Easter, 4th of July, Thanksgiving, and Christmas-New Years.)

 

We would NEVER pay $120 per park.  We book 5+ days for the lower price point or we have Annual Passes.  Masks were mostly a nice addition in colder weather in Dec and Feb.

 

We have 3 cruises booked.  A Disney we booked before C19 for 9/2021, A CC we booked for mid Nov '21 and a NCL for next summer '22.  I am fully aware the NCL may be the only one we do as currently scheduled.  But DCL is still offering a 125% future credit if you are paid in full when it is canceled.  

[tallyho8]

8 hours ago, Island Crazed said:

We have 3 cruises booked.  A Disney we booked before C19 for 9/2021, A CC we booked for mid Nov '21 and a NCL for next summer '22.  I am fully aware the NCL may be the only one we do as currently scheduled.  But DCL is still offering a 125% future credit if you are paid in full when it is canceled.  

The bad part about the 125% FCC is that on all of my cruises that were cancelled, when I went to rebook the same cruise at a later date the fares were 150% to 175% higher.

[CroozFanatic]

I live in Orlando, near the parks.

 

I have no idea what hotel occupancy or park attendance is, but it's very busy here.

 

[duchesslt]

I gave up on cruising and am likely to lose my cruise 1st coupon as I won't pay the outrageous prices for 2022. Instead, booked one of the top 3 Caribbean resorts in Ocho Rios, Jamaica for about the price of a cruise balcony. $10,900 all tips, food, drinks included in a private 2 bedroom cottage with a plunge pool for 4 adults. 

[AstoriaPreppy]

It's important to remember that the parks seem "busy" because of limited capacity. 

Essentially, everyone is out and about, instead of on a ride or dining. All enclosed theater attractions (huge people-eaters) are closed, ride capacity is greatly reduced, live entertainment is gone, and lines are socially distanced and pushed out of the queues and into walkways. Combine that with sit down restaurants that are either closed or capacity limited plus social distancing in seating for quick service, and the parks "feel" busy, even though capacity is being capped around 30% (at least at WDW). 

At WDW, you still have massive chunks of hotel capacity that is still offline (Port Orleans, Poly, All Stars, etc), and the hotels that are open aren't coming close to the pre-pandemic occupancy levels. 

[HxFx]

21 hours ago, Island Crazed said:

We were at MK when the announced closing broke (3/12/20). 

We were there that last weekend too. We saw the writing on the wall about our April cruise but desperately wanted to get some sunshine. We booked our flight / hotel and bought our 4 day pass the day before the announcement. We ended up losing our last day since the 16th would have been the 4th day. Fortunately we got the military rate!

 

It was a wonderful time and we did not have problems getting restaurant reservations during a normally very busy time. There were still long waits for the most popular rides but the app really helps. I can't imagine going back while having to wear a mask outdoors (especially as it gets warmer).

 

There were no outbreaks from WDW back then and they were at a higher capacity so was disappointed about the masks outdoors mandate. I'm kinda surprised they haven't eased up on that. I'll go back when they do. I'm from Tampa Bay and have many happy childhood memories of WDW, to include when all the rides required a ticket. We were too poor to buy extra E tickets so spent a lot of time on the "If you had wings" ride!