Anyone else reevaluating?

[RocketMan275]

On 7/30/2021 at 5:45 PM, mianmike said:

 

Thanks.  An eye opener for sure!

Any test will have a percentage of false positives and false negatives.

It's usually a trade-off, one can only reduce the false positives by increasing the false negatives.  (or is it the other way around?)

[RaftingJeremy]

On 7/28/2021 at 10:17 AM, MsTabbyKats said:

I have an 11/2021 and a 2/2022 booked.

 

I read feedback from passengers who have sailed...and based on what they've said, I'm not too sure if I want to sail until Covid is a thing of the past.  One thing, masks required in ports....nope, not for me.

 

Yesterday I had "a scratchy throat" so I immediatly had a (negative) covid test.  As a rule, I am not a germophobe or a hypochondriac.  But, this uncertaintly of what's gonna happen or what the rules will be at the time of the cruise.....is cruising worth the worry?  Truth be told....I don't even look at cruising as the fun it used to be.  Based on the price increase it's not "the almost giveaway" vacation anymore.

Nope. I won’t be deterred by a mask. It’s not a big deal. Good lord 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Any test will have a percentage of false positives and false negatives.

It's usually a trade-off, one can only reduce the false positives by increasing the false negatives.  (or is it the other way around?)

Incorrect- the trade off is a more accurate test with fewer false positive and negative results which is why a PCR test is so valuable. Antigen tests are used as a first choice due to cost. When a positive is triggered a follow up (much more accurate) PCR test is administered. The FDA and Harvard links on test accuracy are good reading.

[MsTabbyKats]

Thanks for all the responses....for those re-evaluating and those who are ok with "the status quo" (whatever that may be at the time of your trip).

 

As I said, buried somewhere in 8 pages, is that I canceled my Nov and March cruises, both on the Gem, a ship I've been on multiple times.  I had OV cabins for both and both trips had ports where I wanted to do things, on my terms.

 

I ended up booking (who knows what will happen) a cruise for late March.  For the same price as my 7 day OV on the Gem I got a Club Balcony Suite (I know...glorifed balcony) on the Getaway (never been on that ship) with ports that I don't care about.  As long as I don't need a mask on the ship, I'll be just as happy staying on board.  And if I do need to wear a mask, I'll have my Club Balcony Suite to go "au natural".

 

The prices on my newly schedule sailing are really in the "almost normal" range.  I was even toying with doing a Haven...but that will be another thread. (The total cost would be less than the 2 OVs that I canceled!)

[HMR74]

On 7/29/2021 at 9:01 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

That is a great attitude to have. So many price watchers get upset if they don't hit the button at rock bottom. I'm not that way. Like you, I decide the price I'm willing to pay and book when prices hit that point. My prices are less than yours because I'm cheap hahahah.  There is a saying for those of us who trade stocks.... "don't try to catch a falling knife" and I think that applies to all purchases :).

Another saying is "buy the dip"  and you never fall in love with a stock nor just hate a stock . Issue is can you make money.

 

I just pulled the plug on a Thanksgiving 2021 family cruise after hearing the protocols for the cruises in August. The permutations with 3 generations, as well as the protocols was too much. However, we had the family Thanksgiving 2022 cruise, already booked same ship same cabins. We will just do it a year later, hopefully.

 

Next one for us seniors is April May 2022, and for that a lot depends on the global situation. Not just in US but Europe.

 

Another saying in my group of traders:  "Don't try to squeeze  2 pounds of Salami in a 1 pound sack"  In other words, do not try to put a round peg into a square hole--if it does not feel right, do not force the issue on anything, and thats a personal decision.

 

I'll finish the cliche's  saying " thats why Baskin Robbins has 31 flavors".

Edited August 2, 2021 by HMR74

[HMR74]

On 7/30/2021 at 1:48 PM, MsTabbyKats said:

I'm 100% with you.

 

In addition to "unknown masking" requirements, I just read the Carnival is now requiring negative PCR testing within 72 hours of departure for a lot of cruises.

 

 

This may have been pointed out since this your post Friday, but it appears that as of 12/31/21, the CDC wlll not be dependent on PCR test, and from what I understand that test does not give clear results.

In a couple of days I will have to verify that for the heck of it, and at this point I just do nto trust anybody saying anything.

 

Another traders cliche is " do you own due diligence". eg, just because someone else thinks something  is right, or wrong, check it out for yourself.

 

[HMR74]

final thought since its about the bottom line:

 

The cruise for family I just cancelled cost $10,000 for the Thanksgiving  7 day cruise in 4  Oceanview Balconys. Plus add ons. whatever that might be like internet, excursions if even possible, etc. add 2,000

 

Airfare was $5600  but the grandkids kids and son in law have to travel  on specific dates. I had to look at a private jet, which made the commercial flights seem reasonable.

 

Insurance, I had not priced it yet under the new "rules and situation", but that would add easily 1500

PCR tests if 250 PP would be another $2,000.

 

Going a day early, 4 hotel rooms peak season Miami transportation and meals , throw in another 1500

 

23k for the week. The more I  think about it.......it is like trying to stuff 2 pounds of salami into a 1 pound sack.

 

The cruise itself looks like a bargain. and the current price of the same cabins would be $15,000 vs the 10k .

Just shake your head and smile.

 

 

 

 

 

[david_sobe]

This is a global pandemic that will last years.  The more people not vaccinated, the longer it will last.  But we are over the hump.  Effective vaccines are available and cruising has finally resumed.  This pandemic is no different than others in its seesaw or up and down outbreaks.  Its going to be slow process to get back to "normal."  I watched cruise vlogs of 2 recent sailings.  The celebrity Edge was a fully vaccinated ship.  No masks required.  The RCCL ship sailing from Miami required masks most places and banned unvaccinated passengers from many parts of the ship.  I think most of us would prefer a fully vaccinated ship.  However, I would not let a piece of cloth over my face and mouth from stopping me from doing what I want to do and go on with life.  Just tell yourself.  We are not snowflakes.  We will get through this if everyone pulls together.

[GeriatricNurse]

On 7/28/2021 at 10:41 AM, Middleager said:

Needing to wear mask when in ports won't bother us.  We are already doing this in Canada while outdoor with others, and certainly indoor shopping.  There are not that many anti-maskers or anti-vaxxers in Canada. 

 

My family are all fully vaccinated.  We look forward to a driving vacation next month, and cruising 2021/22, and 2022/1.

Nor have any of us Canadians thought, 'out loud', that they are being 'microchipped', when receiving the Covid-19 Vaccines! 🙄

[bkrickles1]

I'm booked on the Joy for January 2022 and I do believe this sailing will take place but I am concerned about what the protocols will be.

My final payment date is September 17th so I'm expected to be paid in full before NCL announces their new protocols on November 1st.

I'm ok with masks in ports but not ok with them on the ship. My family is fully vaccinated and we believe in the science that we are protected against severe illness and should be allowed to go maskless virtually everywhere.

This spike in covid cases was not totally unexpected by scientists, although it is bigger because of the delta variant. I'm hopeful things will settle down by October and that will allow the cruise lines to ratchet back some of the protocols and allow for a more normal experience onboard their ships.

My fingers are crossed as me and my people are super excited to sail on the Joy after experiencing the Encore in 2020 and the Escape in 2018.

[HMR74]

4 hours ago, david_sobe said:

This is a global pandemic that will last years.  The more people not vaccinated, the longer it will last.  But we are over the hump.  Effective vaccines are available and cruising has finally resumed.  This pandemic is no different than others in its seesaw or up and down outbreaks.  Its going to be slow process to get back to "normal."  I watched cruise vlogs of 2 recent sailings.  The celebrity Edge was a fully vaccinated ship.  No masks required.  The RCCL ship sailing from Miami required masks most places and banned unvaccinated passengers from many parts of the ship.  I think most of us would prefer a fully vaccinated ship.  However, I would not let a piece of cloth over my face and mouth from stopping me from doing what I want to do and go on with life.  Just tell yourself.  We are not snowflakes.  We will get through this if everyone pulls together.

Thursday, before the RCL/Celebrity e mails on the change first went out, I had a long discussion with someone at RCL with 15 years  experience about the protocols. 

 

My head was spinning when I finished on the permutations I mentioned above. Like many, we have 3 generations on a cruise but the kids under 12 at this point cannot be vaccinated even if my adult children were comfortabe with it. All the adults have been vaccinated.

But the discussion went like this--the kids would have to wear masks almost everywhere all the time.  and the vaccinated adults if we wanted to be with the kids would have to wear masks. which might be a good thing even if the % occupancy was not near 100%.

 

Right now I do not know what to beleive in effectiveness, trasmittability, Delta variant, whether the PCR test is good or not.

 

So, as one person earlier stated  a cliche for trading, I will post another.

"If you are going to panic (sell), you want to panic early".

 

RCL was very accomodative and so was our Agent on this so we cancelled our 2021 family cruise  (but we have the 2022 family cruise intact-if all this is not resolved by a year from now, we have deeper problems)

 

Now we just have to figure out the "adult" cruises between now and then, which are less complex just because its just the 2 of us on Celebrity

 

 

 

 

[Darcy03231]

I'm booked for May 2022 and am still in the watch and see category.  I have no problems with canceling if things don't look good by then.  

[AstoriaPreppy]

We ended up canceling our Thanksgiving 2021 Epic Med/Transatlantic Rome-NY sailing a few months ago... and haven't looked back at NCL since. Trying to forecast the outlook for a trip through multiple EU nations en route to the US in November is nearly impossible, and NCL's awful guest services (compared to every other mass market line) makes me totally unwilling to take the risk.

 

When they changed our 2020 HK-Singapore cruise to Singapore round trip 11 days before sailing, then canceled it outright four days before sailing, then tried to stick us with the bill for changing our flights, it was a fool me once situation. I'd be an idiot to trust that NCL wouldn't ultimately do the same thing to the thousands of passengers booked on the Epic in this situation. 

 

In June, we sailed on the Celebrity Millennium out of St. Maarten. The trip was flawless, even with the added annoyance of PCR tests, and itinerary changes. Last week, we sailed the Carnival Vista out of Galveston, paying less than $350 pp for a seven day cruise.

Cruising is out there... with cruise lines that are invested in getting people back on board safely and effectively. You may just have to leave NCL to do it.

[Travelicious]

10 hours ago, HMR74 said:

This may have been pointed out since this your post Friday, but it appears that as of 12/31/21, the CDC wlll not be dependent on PCR test

 

Can you expound upon this, please?  Will there be a more accurate test taking its place, or to what are you referring?  Thanks.

[HMR74]

1 minute ago, Travelicious said:

Can you expound upon this, please?  Will there be a more accurate test taking its place, or to what are you referring?  Thanks.

I said I just read about it and cannot verify. But just reported it.

If you have the time, please feel free to google around and find out and report.

[Travelicious]

28 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

I said I just read about it and cannot verify. But just reported it.

If you have the time, please feel free to google around and find out and report.

I tried to Google about it before asking, but upon reading your response I added "December 31, 2021."  That yielded the link below, which is to the CDC website.  Looks like PCR testing was under an Emergency Use Authorization

 

Lab Alert: Changes to CDC RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 Testing

[winterbliss]

1 hour ago, Travelicious said:

I tried to Google about it before asking, but upon reading your response I added "December 31, 2021."  That yielded the link below, which is to the CDC website.  Looks like PCR testing was under an Emergency Use Authorization

 

Lab Alert: Changes to CDC RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 Testing

You didn't know the PCR tests were under EUA as well? Interesting to check out recent acquisition by certain people, of Mologic, a UK based diagnostics company. Interesting if nothing else.

[classy_cruiser]

I will say I am getting more nervous the last couple of days since we now know that quite a few vaccinated people are testing positive with the Delta variant. Also hearing about significant travel delays for international flights and lots of missed connections. The risk of missing the cruise altogether or getting back later than planned is elevated now

[MichiganBound]

The CDC has added 16 international destinations to the list of very high risk places to travel to.  The list includes Greece, Ireland, Saint Martin, Curacao, and the USVI.

 

It will be interesting to follow if this development causes any changes to NCL cruise itineraries.

 

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cdc-adds-very-high-risk-travel-destinations/index.html

[kirtihk]

15 hours ago, david_sobe said:

This is a global pandemic that will last years.  The more people not vaccinated, the longer it will last.  But we are over the hump.  Effective vaccines are available and cruising has finally resumed.  This pandemic is no different than others in its seesaw or up and down outbreaks.  Its going to be slow process to get back to "normal."  I watched cruise vlogs of 2 recent sailings.  The celebrity Edge was a fully vaccinated ship.  No masks required.  The RCCL ship sailing from Miami required masks most places and banned unvaccinated passengers from many parts of the ship.  I think most of us would prefer a fully vaccinated ship.  However, I would not let a piece of cloth over my face and mouth from stopping me from doing what I want to do and go on with life.  Just tell yourself.  We are not snowflakes.  We will get through this if everyone pulls together.

I’ve just been wondering sense February 16, 2020 (when my wife told me to cancel our first of 14 canceled cruises) how many millions human souls around the globe will drastically suffer from the stress disorder upon these “lasting years”? No one discusses this the most important topic for a sake of…

[kirtihk]

1 hour ago, MichiganBound said:

The CDC has added 16 international destinations to the list of very high risk places to travel to.  The list includes Greece, Ireland, Saint Martin, Curacao, and the USVI.

 

It will be interesting to follow if this development causes any changes to NCL cruise itineraries.

 

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cdc-adds-very-high-risk-travel-destinations/index.html

Basically, everywhere cruise lines try to go. It’s a magic touch I guess…

[Sthrngary]

1 minute ago, kirtihk said:

I’ve just been wondering sense February 16, 2020 (when my wife told me to cancel our first of 14 canceled cruises) how many millions human souls around the globe will drastically suffer from the stress disorder upon these “lasting years”? No one discusses this the most important topic for a sake of…

Two ways to look at this.  First, Stress Disorder it a real thing.  We think we are out and we are right back in it again.  Makes you wonder if this will ever be  normal again.  Second, stress disorder due to lack of cruises.  Both contribute to a level of depression.  That folks is dangerous.  Let attempt to help each other through quite frankly a very serious time.  Live well and Cruise well everyone.

[HMR74]

3 minutes ago, kirtihk said:

I’ve just been wondering sense February 16, 2020 (when my wife told me to cancel our first of 14 canceled cruises) how many millions human souls around the globe will drastically suffer from the stress disorder upon these “lasting years”? No one discusses this the most important topic for a sake of…

I was listening to a podcast during the day and the issue was the PCR being discontinued. The assertion was that the PCR does not adeqately distinguish between covid and normal flu. I did doze off during  the  podcast but the gist was that , drum roll, many with flu virus were classified with covid. Tune in in a few months to learn what really happened, especially after the book written by an austrailian news reporter is released in late September.

 

 

 

[HMR74]

6 minutes ago, Sthrngary said:

Two ways to look at this.  First, Stress Disorder it a real thing.  We think we are out and we are right back in it again.  Makes you wonder if this will ever be  normal again.  Second, stress disorder due to lack of cruises.  Both contribute to a level of depression.  That folks is dangerous.  Let attempt to help each other through quite frankly a very serious time.  Live well and Cruise well everyone.

one reason for a cruise, or vacation, is to get away from the normal daily stresses of life. Simple enough, huh? Get out and rejuvinate. Even on a cruise to nowhere , that you can turn your brain off for a period of time, stay away from the news, debates and controversies.

 

[Sinbadssailors]

7 hours ago, winterbliss said:

You didn't know the PCR tests were under EUA as well? Interesting to check out recent acquisition by certain people, of Mologic, a UK based diagnostics company. Interesting if nothing else.

I googled this and find it especially interesting that news of the acquisition and news of the testing change? Reported/happened at the same time.

 

Not sure what to make of that