Final Payment Due Next Month for Alaska Cruise (May 2022) -- Would You Hesitate to Pay It...?

[BermudaBound2014]

58 minutes ago, Darcy03231 said:

 

I'll pay via credit card so if NCL cancels the cruise I'll get my money back.  I have insurance to cover any other issues.  I bought this cruise and picked my cabin in July 2020.  Cost from what I paid back then has almost doubled.  I'm pretty sure I've covered all my bases so I have no issues with paying 120 in advance.  While there may be space available, it may not be the space I want or at a price I want to pay.

 

Everyone is different. The OP was asking for opinions so I gave mine.

 

I obviously hold a minority opinion here, but I believe there is a very real possibility that NCL will eventually file some form of financial default. In which case, many on here believe they would automatically be covered by their credit card company. This isn't an absolute and many credit card companies have changed their terms of service since covid. For example, if you read the fine print on Chase Sapphire card you sill see that the following is Not Covered: "Default of the Common Carrier resulting from Financial Insolvency or Financial Insolvency of a Travel Agency, Tour Operator, or Travel Supplier." 

 

Here is another example of CC wording which exempts the company from refunding the consumer if the tour operator defaults

What’s Not Covered

This is not an exhaustive list. Examples include:

• Travel arrangements canceled or changed by a common carrier, tour operator, or any travel agency unless the cancellation is the result of severe weather or an organized strike affecting public transportation https://www.chase.com/content/chasecom/en/card-benefits/benefit-details/Sapphire_Reserve/tripCancellation-sapphireReserve-10000.html

Some people believe their travel insurance will automatically cover them if their CC fails, but that isn't a given either. It's important to read your policy and differentiate between coverage for financial insolvency, default, or bankruptcy. There are lots of nuisances and 'gotcha's" in the insurance and credit card business. I'm of the belief that most companies have covered themselves in the event of a catastrophic financial failure where the company will end up 'fine' but the consumer will be jacked. 

 

And even if we are 100% covered in the event of financial default, covid protocols changing, personal sickness, etc... we would all be out the cost of travel insurance which is always non-refundable.

 

There are too many variables for me to make final payment at this time. I prefer turn my cash over closer to the sail date when I am more confident the trip will not be interrupted. I am not picky about my cabin location and am willing to play my (very good) odds that the price will actually be cheaper, especially on a May Alaska cruise which is considered shoulder season. 

 

As a side note (and this means absolutely nothing because I am far from an expert), but I don't anticipate financial default (if it comes) until the end of 2022 so spring cruises should be fine 🙂

 

There is no right or wrong answer. It sounds like you have researched your protection terms and are confident you are covered under all circumstances. I absolutely respect that. 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by BermudaBound2014

[Yo Adrienne]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Everyone is different. The OP was asking for opinions so I gave mine.

 

I obviously hold a minority opinion here, but I believe there is a very real possibility that NCL will eventually file some form of financial default. In which case, many on here believe they would automatically be covered by their credit card company. This isn't an absolute and many credit card companies have changed their terms of service since covid. For example, if you read the fine print on Chase Sapphire card you sill see that the following is Not Covered: "Default of the Common Carrier resulting from Financial Insolvency or Financial Insolvency of a Travel Agency, Tour Operator, or Travel Supplier." 

******

There is no right or wrong answer. It sounds like you have researched your protection terms and are confident you are covered under all circumstances. I absolutely respect that. 

 

 

Thank you for this really thoughtful response...!  You're raising some very good questions...! (And just FYI...it doesn't matter to me whether you're in the majority or minority with your opinion.  I was looking for opinions, so I really appreciate your perspective here.) 🙂 

[ChiefMateJRK]

5 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Just my opinion, but there is no way I would pay in full 120 days in advance to any cruise line. I'd take my (very good) chances that there will be space available last minute. 

I believe that POA sailings may be an exception.

[disneylover89]

I really hate how NCL changes their due dates randomly with no notifications. grrrr

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

I believe that POA sailings may be an exception.

 

Yes, of course. Any sailing that has limited supply compared to demand doesn't fit into my strategy. I do admit that I do not include POA in my spreadsheet price tracker. Having lived in Hawaii back in the 80's and spending the last two winters in Maui, a Hawaiian cruise has little appeal for me so I don't track it's pricing. 

 

But a May Alaska cruise? I'd bet my entire farm those prices will drop.

[Joanne G.]

On 12/9/2021 at 1:24 PM, Yo Adrienne said:

  . . .So...just curious...would you have any hesitation in moving forward and making the full final payment...? 

From reading these boards, many people have had enjoyable and uneventful cruises in these challenging times, and odds are good that you will, too.  

 

But since you asked . . . .I have concerns about my own May cruise, for which final payment is due in January.   The cruise is in Europe, and I booked as a solo, so it's a lot of money to me - more than I want to tie up in these uncertain times under the current cancelation policies.   I always buy travel insurance, but that won't kick in if I change my mind due to conditions I would find unacceptable at the time of sailing - maybe new covid variants, maybe changed protocols in the port countries or onboard, maybe a changed itinerary.  Sadly, I have decided to cancel before final payment.

 

I have made alternative plans for a land vacation in one of the cities that would have been a port stop.  I have a hotel reservation for which I don't have to pay until the time of the stay.  

 

Best wishes for a great cruise, assuming you go ahead and make that final payment.   

Edited December 11, 2021 by Joanne G.

[Samstress]

10 minutes ago, Joanne G. said:

From reading these boards, many people have had enjoyable and uneventful cruises in these challenging times, and odds are good that you will, too.  

 

But since you asked . . . .I have concerns about my own May cruise, for which final payment is due in January.   The cruise is in Europe, and I booked as a solo, so it's a lot of money to me - more than I want to tie up in these uncertain times under the current cancelation policies.   I always buy travel insurance, but that won't kick in if I change my mind due to conditions I would find unacceptable at the time of sailing - maybe new covid variants, maybe changed protocols in the port countries or onboard, maybe a changed itinerary.  Sadly, I have decided to cancel before final payment.

 

I have made alternative plans for a land vacation in one of the cities that would have been a port stop.  I have a hotel reservation for which I don't have to pay until the time of the stay.  

 

Best wishes for a great cruise, assuming you go ahead and make that final payment.   

I am feeling the same way about our Northern Europe and Baltics May cruise.  Many of the countries that we were looking forward to visiting are closing their borders due to the new variant.  As much as I realize that this may not be the case in May I do not want to take that chance & make final payment in January.  I am going to contact our cruise consultant to see if NCL will move the payment schedule closer to our sailing date so we will have more time to decide.  Failing that I am prepared (with heavy heart) to cancel.

[classy_cruiser]

I really hope that the cruise industry can adapt and keep the more flexible cancellation policies going forward. 120 day payment deadline is really crazy when compared to other forms of travel. If I fly Southwest and book a major chain hotel and rental car directly, I can cancel the day before without any penalties. Most other airlines let you rebook for a fee even in economy class. 60 days deadline seems like more than enough time to organize things on their end. NCL is stingy with their covid policies compared to some of the other lines. I think more people will turn to last minute bookings if they try to go back to the old way and that won't make their planning any easier. 

[milolii]

@Samstress  and @Joanne G. I agree the Northern European cruises are a concern.   The Mediterranean cruises have sailed successfully.  
 

I’m watching to see if those final Payment dates may be extended.  Our final is in March so we have a  little bit more time.  But yes, the final dates for the May cruises are only a few weeks away. 
 

I think if any announcement is made about the extension of dates, someone will post here quickly.  

[bbnmom]

I wouldn't hesitate. It seems Omicron is not nearly as devastating as delta especially if you have had the booster and you have insurance. If the cruise gets canceled just enjoy Seattle for the week.

 

[All-ready2cruise]

13 hours ago, Darcy03231 said:

 

Final payment is due 60 prior to cruise for cruises departing through April 30th.  Goes back to 120 days for everything starting May 1st.

Yea, sorry Darcy, I wouldn't really pay any cruise in full more than the 2 months in advance unless of course it was with FCC. I have an April cruise, not yet paid in full and a May cruise, fully paid with in FCC.  I have a hard decision to make. I'm glad you feel comfortable paying your cruise 4 months in advance.  

All the best for your cruise in May 2022. Hope you enjoy. 

[Crazy planning mom]

On 12/10/2021 at 10:46 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Everyone is different. The OP was asking for opinions so I gave mine.

 

I obviously hold a minority opinion here, but I believe there is a very real possibility that NCL will eventually file some form of financial default. In which case, many on here believe they would automatically be covered by their credit card company. This isn't an absolute and many credit card companies have changed their terms of service since covid. For example, if you read the fine print on Chase Sapphire card you sill see that the following is Not Covered: "Default of the Common Carrier resulting from Financial Insolvency or Financial Insolvency of a Travel Agency, Tour Operator, or Travel Supplier." 

 

Here is another example of CC wording which exempts the company from refunding the consumer if the tour operator defaults

What’s Not Covered

This is not an exhaustive list. Examples include:

• Travel arrangements canceled or changed by a common carrier, tour operator, or any travel agency unless the cancellation is the result of severe weather or an organized strike affecting public transportation https://www.chase.com/content/chasecom/en/card-benefits/benefit-details/Sapphire_Reserve/tripCancellation-sapphireReserve-10000.html

Some people believe their travel insurance will automatically cover them if their CC fails, but that isn't a given either. It's important to read your policy and differentiate between coverage for financial insolvency, default, or bankruptcy. There are lots of nuisances and 'gotcha's" in the insurance and credit card business. I'm of the belief that most companies have covered themselves in the event of a catastrophic financial failure where the company will end up 'fine' but the consumer will be jacked. 

 

And even if we are 100% covered in the event of financial default, covid protocols changing, personal sickness, etc... we would all be out the cost of travel insurance which is always non-refundable.

 

There are too many variables for me to make final payment at this time. I prefer turn my cash over closer to the sail date when I am more confident the trip will not be interrupted. I am not picky about my cabin location and am willing to play my (very good) odds that the price will actually be cheaper, especially on a May Alaska cruise which is considered shoulder season. 

 

As a side note (and this means absolutely nothing because I am far from an expert), but I don't anticipate financial default (if it comes) until the end of 2022 so spring cruises should be fine 🙂

 

There is no right or wrong answer. It sounds like you have researched your protection terms and are confident you are covered under all circumstances. I absolutely respect that. 

 

 

I realize you don't have a crystal ball but do you think they might file for bankruptcy as soon as 2022?  Also, if they did a re-organization, wouldn't they continue to sail?

I am sailing out of Greece in the Fall and since Greece has been open for sometime, I would expect my cruise to sail unless they file Chapter 7.

[ChiefMateJRK]

24 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

do you think they might file for bankruptcy as soon as 2022?

Even at reduced capacity, their current cruises are generating positive cash flow.  Are they generating a healthy margin?  Likely not, but that just reduces the value of their stock, it doesn't suggest bankruptcy.  The fact that they are moving forward with significant capital investments (Prima class ships every year) indicates to me that bankruptcy is highly unlikely.

[Joanne G.]

To the OP, a factor that may make it more comfortable for you to go ahead with final payment for your Alaska cruise is that you will have only one other country's - Canada's - covid restrictions to pay attention to.  I have (had, as I just canceled 😥) multiple countries on my European cruise, meaning more risk of government actions that could affect enjoyment of the ports or the itinerary itself.  

 

If Canada again doesn't allow cruise ships in its waters next summer, then you would sail entirely within the U.S. as the ships did last summer - with spectacular scenery to enjoy even if port stops are affected.

 

Before making any final payment, I would make sure I understood and could live with the cancelation penalties.   If you have done that, then you should feel comfortable to make that payment and go forward with your plans.   

[BermudaBound2014]

4 hours ago, Crazy planning mom said:

I realize you don't have a crystal ball but do you think they might file for bankruptcy as soon as 2022?  Also, if they did a re-organization, wouldn't they continue to sail?

I am sailing out of Greece in the Fall and since Greece has been open for sometime, I would expect my cruise to sail unless they file Chapter 7.

 

I'm certainly not a wall street executive, but my personal belief is that I do expect some form of  financial reorganization and believe it could be as early as third quarter of 2022, but there are several variable to consider. Getting ships sailing again is one aspect, but until ships sail full of paying customers (not those with FCC), the cash burn will likely remain. 

 

On paper all of the cruise lines are in financial crisis. NCL is probably the most vulnerable because it is so small comparatively. Although it's possible with the current cash burn that small is better. It is also possible that cruise lines will file for financial restructure and not miss a beat in terms of booked sailings. Or not. Only time will tell.  Again, I hold minority opinion here, but I'm shorting cruise stock and it's been very lucrative. It does make me sad to be betting against an industry I love but this girls gotta pay for my condo in hawaii one way or another lol. 

 

As far as your cruise to Greece goes, I just wouldn't make any final payments until the last minute possible. I believe NCL will change final payment to 60 days again. If they don't, that isn't a good sign. Fall is a long way away. The situation with Covid is so fluid that it's hard to make predictions one month to the next. You asked my opinion and it's no better than the next persons, but if I were you, I'd just hang tight.

 

3 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Even at reduced capacity, their current cruises are generating positive cash flow.  Are they generating a healthy margin?  Likely not, but that just reduces the value of their stock, it doesn't suggest bankruptcy.  The fact that they are moving forward with significant capital investments (Prima class ships every year) indicates to me that bankruptcy is highly unlikely.

 

Unfortunately, NCL does not have positive cash flow even with 40% of the ships already in operation as they are losing 275 million each MONTH and that cost is projected to increase to 350 million per month as they launch new vessels through April. Again, I'm not looking so much at how quickly they can relaunch, but more toward how quickly they can sail full. Continuing to build Prima does not equate to a vote of confidence with me as the VGM rating remains an "F". On this subject we shall just agree to disagree and I hope we can do so respectfully.

 

 

 

 

 

[ChiefMateJRK]

12 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Unfortunately, NCL does not have positive cash flow even with 40% of the ships already in operation as they are losing 275 million each MONTH and that cost is projected to increase to 350 million per month as they launch new vessels through April.

I didn't say that NCL as a whole was generating cash.  I said that the current cruises were generating positive cash flow.

12 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

On this subject we shall just agree to disagree and I hope we can do so respectfully.

We can. 😎  A lot of folks (not you) claim that they are losing tons of money on each cruise.  They're not.

[LGW59]

On 12/9/2021 at 12:45 PM, ChiefMateJRK said:

How could your final payment be due this month for a May cruise?

They said it is due in January 

[ChiefMateJRK]

On 12/9/2021 at 1:08 PM, Darcy03231 said:

I have final payment due the end of this month for a May cruise

 

7 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

They said it is due in January 

See above.

[BoundForSea]

Sailed AK in August and are doing it again in April/May as the OP. Not even a glimmer of hesitation. The days of shutdowns are over. They just are. Canada is not a player in the AK market anymore so they can do or not do whatever they want. I hope they make the temp Bill to avoid Canada permanent. Make it a sea day for all I care. 

 

Anyway ole Frankie is ready as always to take my green bills and I’m as always, eager to give it to him! I’m still spending FCC from 2020! 

[LGW59]

2 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

 

See above.

Then you should have quoted them in your response, you did not, so appeared you were responding to OP.  

[ChiefMateJRK]

4 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

Then you should have quoted them in your response, you did not, so appeared you were responding to OP.  

I did. 

[BirdTravels]

On 12/9/2021 at 3:45 PM, ChiefMateJRK said:

How could your final payment be due this month for a May cruise?

 

On 12/9/2021 at 7:07 PM, ChiefMateJRK said:

I agree.  They may ramp it up from 60 to 90 to 120.

Not sure why you keep telling the OP that she's wrong. She has a 120 day final payment. And it is not "may", NCL has a well published cancellation/final payment policy. 

[BirdTravels]

On 12/9/2021 at 2:24 PM, Yo Adrienne said:

So...just curious...would you have any hesitation in moving forward and making the full final payment...? 

We would not have any hesitation on making final payment. We have been on 3 post-restart cruises and enjoyed every one. We have 4 booked next year so far (with final payment dates approaching). And we intend to may all payments. 

[The Traveling Man]

NCL's changing policy on final payment date has produced a strange anomaly.  The OP's cruise departs on 1 May, with payment due on 1 January.  We have a cruise that departs just over a week earlier on 23 April, but our due date is not until 23 February.

[LGW59]

20 minutes ago, BirdTravels said:

We would not have any hesitation on making final payment. We have been on 3 post-restart cruises and enjoyed every one. We have 4 booked next year so far (with final payment dates approaching). And we intend to may all payments. 

Like how you think!  I had two 14 day cruises booked for 2022, decided to cancel one of them but only because we found a bucket list 52 day cruise we really really want to do on Celebrity in 2023.  That said, may still get a hankering for a cruise tweener!  Enjoy your upcoming cruises.