Carnival shares - HL analysis

[Harry Peterson]

Interesting analysis by Hargreaves of the current cruising position:
 

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202201/carnival-outlook-uncertain

[janieb1962]

Read my email from them which in summary ended with proceed with caution. 

Not sure what that actually means as I bought shares many years ago ..

 

still enjoying the shareholder benefits.. albeit I have to buy a cruise to enjoy them😂

 

 

 

[yorkshirephil]

Timing is key, almost 2 years ago they hovered around £6. 

[wowzz]

4 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

Interesting analysis by Hargreaves of the current cruising position:
 

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202201/carnival-outlook-uncertain

The same company that was recommending the Woodford Equity Fund just as it was about to go bust.

My tea leaves will be just as accurate! 

 

[Harry Peterson]

7 hours ago, wowzz said:

The same company that was recommending the Woodford Equity Fund just as it was about to go bust.

My tea leaves will be just as accurate! 

 

I certainly wouldn't follow their recommendations (we're absolutely out of the stock market at the moment, with one or two very minor exceptions, including the Carnival which we've had for years and which mentally I've written off altogether).

 

I'm definitely not suggesting buying Carnival (or selling, for that matter).  Posted it just out of interest for their view of the way the cruise industry is looking, financially.  I don't have a lot of interest in discussing the weather, but finance, business, current affairs and politics does interest me - most of that's banned on these forums though!

[wowzz]

2 hours ago, Harry Peterson said:

I certainly wouldn't follow their recommendations (we're absolutely out of the stock market at the moment, with one or two very minor exceptions, including the Carnival which we've had for years and which mentally I've written off altogether).

 

I'm definitely not suggesting buying Carnival (or selling, for that matter).  Posted it just out of interest for their view of the way the cruise industry is looking, financially.  I don't have a lot of interest in discussing the weather, but finance, business, current affairs and politics does interest me - most of that's banned on these forums though!

We've stayed invested - in the long term I think it's the best place to be, and even with lower dividend payments recently,  I still get more income than is available anywhere else. 

[Harry Peterson]

11 minutes ago, wowzz said:

We've stayed invested - in the long term I think it's the best place to be, and even with lower dividend payments recently,  I still get more income than is available anywhere else. 

I agree fully about the long term. It’s the short term I’m concerned about. Having said that though, most of it’s gone to the children. They have more need of it than we do, and it saves 40% IHT!

[zap99]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

We've stayed invested - in the long term I think it's the best place to be, and even with lower dividend payments recently,  I still get more income than is available anywhere else. 

I can let you in on a top secret investment strategy. Sell high, buy low. If all these independent financial advisors are any good, why are they still working.?

[wowzz]

30 minutes ago, zap99 said:

I can let you in on a top secret investment strategy. Sell high, buy low. If all these independent financial advisors are any good, why are they still working.?

Thanks for the advice Zap. Your cheque is in the post.

[Harry Peterson]

My advice would be never to buy shares primarily for the perks.  If only I’d followed it, Queens Moat and Carnival wouldn’t have led to losses!

 

On the other hand, Barratt Developments has paid more in dividends over the last two years than the shares cost forty years ago.

[paulatsea]

I have the max amount of premium bonds - over the last 2 years I have had 1.5% return. 
still waiting for the big one.

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, Harry Peterson said:

My advice would be never to buy shares primarily for the perks.  If only I’d followed it, Queens Moat and Carnival wouldn’t have led to losses!

 

On the other hand, Barratt Developments has paid more in dividends over the last two years than the shares cost forty years ago.

I bought my Carnival shares for the perks and have been averaging 14% net return on my investment in onboard credit for several years, plus the dividends which are tax free. As long as I keep cruising on P&O or other Carnival brands I will keep the shares.

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, paulatsea said:

I have the max amount of premium bonds - over the last 2 years I have had 1.5% return. 
still waiting for the big one.

Which is more or less what we have earnt.  The issue of course is that with inflation now being what it is,  even with your winnings your capital is reducing by about 3% per year.

Hooefully equities will at the very least maintain the value of your capital,  through a combination of growth and dividends. 

[terrierjohn]

39 minutes ago, davecttr said:

I bought my Carnival shares for the perks and have been averaging 14% net return on my investment in onboard credit for several years, plus the dividends which are tax free. As long as I keep cruising on P&O or other Carnival brands I will keep the shares.

Even though the shares are now below my purchase price, I am also well ahead on the OBC received since my fortuitous purchase just after the Concoedia crisis.

[tring]

We both transferred mini cash ISA's to staocks and shares ISA's (trackers) early last year and they have gained a lot. 

 

I have another cash ISA due to mature in a day or two and am at a loss what to do with it.  I am feeling inclined to just let it go into a rock bottom interest, easy access ISA as the difference in interest I can get in another fixed term one is negligible. 

[paulatsea]

1 hour ago, kalos said:

 

I don't think it has to be more Paul 

 

https://www.pocruises.com/travel-health-advisories/flexible-cancellation-policy

 

If your holiday is unaffected by our latest pause but you would like to reschedule, you can take advantage of our free flexible transfer policy up to the date the balance for your holiday is due. This means that if you have a Select Price or Early Saver booking you can:

• Transfer your booking to any P&O Cruises holiday currently on sale (and not just to those within the next 12 months).

• Transfer your booking to a cruise of higher or lower value (and not just of a higher value, as is usually the case).

• Transfer your booking an unlimited number of times (and not just once).

• Transfer your booking free of charge.

 

Should you wish to transfer your booking you should call our Customer Contact Centre or your travel agent if you booked with them.

 

3 minutes ago, tring said:

We both transferred mini cash ISA's to staocks and shares ISA's (trackers) early last year and they have gained a lot. 

 

I have another cash ISA due to mature in a day or two and am at a loss what to do with it.  I am feeling inclined to just let it go into a rock bottom interest, easy access ISA as the difference in interest I can get in another fixed term one is negligible. 

Tring - rather than rock bottom why not buy premium bonds ? Instant access -  I get a return on mine - not a lot about 1.5% but I do have the max allowed - but may win big. If you are not that concerned about rate it’s worth a go.

Edited January 29, 2022 by paulatsea

[tring]

17 minutes ago, paulatsea said:

 

Tring - rather than rock bottom why not buy premium bonds ? Instant access -  I get a return on mine - not a lot about 1.5% but I do have the max allowed - but may win big. If you are not that concerned about rate it’s worth a go.

 

An interesting option, I would not expect a better return, but would be a bit of excitement, may think about it.  I would need to take the ISA out of the tax free protection though, but not sure of the advantage of that either.

Edited January 29, 2022 by tring

[wowzz]

24 minutes ago, tring said:

We both transferred mini cash ISA's to staocks and shares ISA's (trackers) early last year and they have gained a lot. 

 

I have another cash ISA due to mature in a day or two and am at a loss what to do with it.  I am feeling inclined to just let it go into a rock bottom interest, easy access ISA as the difference in interest I can get in another fixed term one is negligible. 

Or drip feed into a ISA tracker over the next financial year?

[yorkshirephil]

8 minutes ago, tring said:

 

An interesting option, I would not expect a better return, but would be a bit of excitement, may think about it.  I would need to take the ISA out of the tax free protection though, but not sure of the advantage of that either.

I like premium bonds, they are tax free too, I have averaged around 1/1.2% in the last few years so no complaints, always look forward to checking and there is the opportunity to win a good amount, its a bit like playing the lotto but putting your ticket back in if you loose. You've Got To Ask Yourself One Question: 'Do I Feel Lucky? ' Well, Do Ya, Punk?

[tring]

7 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Or drip feed into a ISA tracker over the next financial year?

 

I could transfer the entire amount into a stocks and shares ISA, as I did with the one which matured last year.  Would take a couple of years to replace as new money at present limits, though took a lot longer to get it there initially 🙂

 

It will automatically wind over to an easy access ISA, so will think about it over the next week or so.  Spending it sounds a good option as well - shame it does not look a good prospect to head off on a world cruise any time soon, or even a round South America which we were planing to book when Covid struck.  I know some things like that are bookable now, but are not convinced it will turn into the sort of cruise we had hoped for, with a lot of independent gallivanting in the ports and not even convinced those sort of cruises will go ahead in the next couple of years.  We do need the driveway done and other stuff we have just lived with over the years since we just could not be bothered getting it done.

 

 

[paulatsea]

33 minutes ago, yorkshirephil said:

I like premium bonds, they are tax free too, I have averaged around 1/1.2% in the last few years so no complaints, always look forward to checking and there is the opportunity to win a good amount, its a bit like playing the lotto but putting your ticket back in if you loose. You've Got To Ask Yourself One Question: 'Do I Feel Lucky? ' Well, Do Ya, Punk?

Me too - next up is feb 2 - this could be it !! Premium all the way.

[Interestedcruisefan]

Interesting advice. What's the limit a married couple can invest in premium bonds?

Edited January 30, 2022 by Interestedcruisefan

[Harry Peterson]

5 minutes ago, Interestedcruisefan said:

Interesting advice. What's the limit a married couple can invest in premium bonds?

£50,000 each. There used also to be a facility for each to buy in trust for the other, which double the amounts, but I'm not sure they still allow that.

[pennib]

In the daily telegraph today (1 feb) the Questor columnist recommends selling Carnival shares. Also Hargreaves’s Lansdown have been bombarding me with emails about impending doom for carnival shares but guess what? I am keeping mine as I bought them at a very low price . Onwards and upwards………

[Cruisemeister2002]

Having read several so called experts their consensus seems in the main to be HOLD. I have been mulling over whether to buy or not. I did have 100 Carnival Shares and sold them making a modest profit. Currently Carnival seem to be saying that a lot of their passengers have cancelled or put off/transferred their cruises to 2023. In my humble opinion had they not faffed about and made it plain to their customers that should they be quarantined ashore that they would not be out of pocket a majority of their bookings would have remained intact.