Delta more expensive even this far ahead?

[Levi is good]

I am not a new traveler in general but I'm VERY new to booking international flights.  We're heading to Barcelona to catch a cruise next May, and bizarrely, Delta is about $500 higher than other airlines for this flight.  We need it to be Delta as we have leftover credit from a previously cancelled flight.

 

We must be in economy/main, whichever the "lowest" fare is on a particular flight to allow pre-selecting seating.  Family of four, all adults.

 

I was just wondering if anyone knew why Delta would be so far out of range price wise, especially this far ahead.   One of the reasons I selected them for the first flight I booked (for a cancelled trip, which is why we have leftover credit) was the price/flexibility combination.  

 

Thank you.

[Gardyloo]

Early birds don't always get worms.  Sometimes they get cats.

 

Put yourself in the airlines' shoes.  What's the price of a gallon of Jet A fuel going to be in 10 months?  How about the hourly wages of bag handlers in Atlanta or Amsterdam?  What if a recession, or a reawakening of a pandemic, occurs starting this autumn?  

 

If the answer to these questions is "I don't know," then the smart move on the airlines part would be to set prices high enough that they can still turn a profit even if their direct or indirect costs spike in the meantime.  If their costs don't go up, great, more profit.  

 

As you know, there isn't one price for, say, a coach seat between LAX or SFO and, say, Amsterdam.  There are literally dozens of fare "buckets," each with a different price and different conditions - length of stay, cancellation or change penalties, yadda yadda.  The airlines publish these fares, but don't have to sell seats in any or all of them at any given time.  So in July 2022, they'll only sell seats in higher-priced buckets for flights departing in May 2023, in order to lock in profits that might leak out if lower-priced buckets are sold now.  

 

Other airlines have different algorithms (all of them top secret) that they use to determine when given fares are released and under what circumstances, so if you see something that appeals now with another airline, by all means go for it.  But don't assume Delta's prices won't come down as the flight date approaches.  They probably will, but when and by how much - well, you'll need an advance degree from Hogwarts to figure that out.

[iancal]

Other than during covid, we have been purchasing international at least twice  a year.  Europe in the fall, SE/Asia Australia in the winter.

 

Our experience is...you never know.   Our lowest price to Asia was booked 10 ten days or so prior to departure.  We booked pre covid air to Greece six weeks out.  It was 25 percent lower than if we had booked four months in advance. .   It was the same price four days out.

 

Each airline has their own revenue maximization logarithms based on supply and demand.

 

At the moment it all seems up up up. 

 

Next May is a long way off.  I would start shopping in January.

[Ashland]

Check often. I do. For some reason I've found some of my best DL deals late at night (I know this sounds crazy) but it's been true for every flight I've made for trips throughout 2022 and so far for one trip in May 2023...all business/first class. I usually book a month or two after fares open.

 Example...I booked my DL One for LAX-AMS in early/mid 2021 for my July 2022 (this Friday) flight. Got it for $3200.00 for the two of us...which I think was a great deal.

[Hlitner]

As much as we like flying Delta, most of the time we book other airlines (both domestic and international) because they have substantially better pricing.  That is just life.  Airline prices change (often multiple times every day) and it is the nature of the industry.   Since many future flights have been cancelled (or scheduled flights on some routes simply reduced) the supply-demand thing is driving prices up, up, up.  And of course the increased fuel prices are not helping.

 

Just like in the cruise industry, the airlines issued lots of credits/vouchers due to cancelled flights (smart folks asked for a complete refund rather than taking credits/vouchers).  One can speculate that another reason driving higher future prices are because there are so many credits/vouchers that often have expiration dates.   

 

Hank

[FlyerTalker]

One other item regarding DL pricing.

 

For a number of years, DL has been able to extract a price premium for their product, primarily based on operational reliability and superior onboard product.  Now granted, we are not talking quanta-level type differences, but in a number of markets, DL has consistently priced their flights higher AND been able to sustain that premium through bookings that consider more than just low price.

 

In addition, in hub/focus cities where DL commands a dominant presence, it can also get higher pricing.  This is through either captive elites, SkyPeso junkies, or those who will pay more for the convenience of many flight options.

[FlyerTalker]

On 7/18/2022 at 9:30 AM, Levi is good said:

We must be in economy/main, whichever the "lowest" fare is on a particular flight to allow pre-selecting seating.  Family of four, all adults.

 

Highlighted without further comment.

 

 

[Azulann]

6 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

In addition, in hub/focus cities where DL commands a dominant presence, it can also get higher pricing.  This is through either captive elites, SkyPeso junkies, or those who will pay more for the convenience of many flight options.

Exactly, my reason to  fly Delta to Europe in 2023. I live 10 minutes from MSP. Get on the daily flight to AMS and then KLM to Stockholm and on return Copenhagen to AMS to MSP. 

CONVENIENCE is worth to me. I will never be able to flying Delta One class, but a nice window  and aisle seat in economy is just fine. to get to Europe and back. the  Sky pesos are just a little bonus to use before I die.😇

Edited July 20, 2022 by Azulann

[MSUjohn]

On 7/19/2022 at 2:43 PM, FlyerTalker said:

One other item regarding DL pricing.

 

For a number of years, DL has been able to extract a price premium for their product, primarily based on operational reliability and superior onboard product.  Now granted, we are not talking quanta-level type differences, but in a number of markets, DL has consistently priced their flights higher AND been able to sustain that premium through bookings that consider more than just low price.

 

In addition, in hub/focus cities where DL commands a dominant presence, it can also get higher pricing.  This is through either captive elites, SkyPeso junkies, or those who will pay more for the convenience of many flight options.

i fly delta basically exclusively domestically & transatlantic; and i will agree with what you said i WOULD pay more for delta than a competitor.

 

that being said right now flight prices have doubled and tripled.

[Levi is good]

On 7/19/2022 at 11:45 AM, FlyerTalker said:

 

Highlighted without further comment.

 

I don't understand, Flyertalker. 😳 Was there something stupid about my question...?  I'm embarrassed if there was.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Levi is good

[Levi is good]

21 minutes ago, MSUjohn said:

i fly delta basically exclusively domestically & transatlantic; and i will agree with what you said i WOULD pay more for delta than a competitor.

 

that being said right now flight prices have doubled and tripled.

Thanks MSUjohn, that's pretty much why we went with Delta, I didn't realize how much extra we'd be paying though.

[Levi is good]

On 7/19/2022 at 11:43 AM, FlyerTalker said:

One other item regarding DL pricing.

 

For a number of years, DL has been able to extract a price premium for their product, primarily based on operational reliability and superior onboard product.  Now granted, we are not talking quanta-level type differences, but in a number of markets, DL has consistently priced their flights higher AND been able to sustain that premium through bookings that consider more than just low price.

 

In addition, in hub/focus cities where DL commands a dominant presence, it can also get higher pricing.  This is through either captive elites, SkyPeso junkies, or those who will pay more for the convenience of many flight options.

Thank you Flyertalker, this makes a lot of sense.  I wonder with some of the recent cancellations and whatnot if that premium might come down. 

[Levi is good]

On 7/19/2022 at 9:57 AM, Hlitner said:

As much as we like flying Delta, most of the time we book other airlines (both domestic and international) because they have substantially better pricing.  That is just life.  Airline prices change (often multiple times every day) and it is the nature of the industry.   Since many future flights have been cancelled (or scheduled flights on some routes simply reduced) the supply-demand thing is driving prices up, up, up.  And of course the increased fuel prices are not helping.

 

Just like in the cruise industry, the airlines issued lots of credits/vouchers due to cancelled flights (smart folks asked for a complete refund rather than taking credits/vouchers).  One can speculate that another reason driving higher future prices are because there are so many credits/vouchers that often have expiration dates.   

 

Hank

Thank you Hank. It definitely played a role in the timing we've chosen, when our vouchers will expire.

[Levi is good]

On 7/18/2022 at 3:25 PM, Ashland said:

Check often. I do. For some reason I've found some of my best DL deals late at night (I know this sounds crazy) but it's been true for every flight I've made for trips throughout 2022 and so far for one trip in May 2023...all business/first class. I usually book a month or two after fares open.

 Example...I booked my DL One for LAX-AMS in early/mid 2021 for my July 2022 (this Friday) flight. Got it for $3200.00 for the two of us...which I think was a great deal.

Ashland, I'm going to start looking before bedtime, or if I can't sleep in the middle of the night. It might end up keeping me awake, lol, but that's interesting to note the pricing at different times.  I've been waiting for the fares to open, thinking I'd sneak in some great deal, so I was kind of surprised to see how expensive it was comparatively. But again I'm a complete novice at booking international.  Thank you.

[Levi is good]

On 7/18/2022 at 10:11 AM, Gardyloo said:

Early birds don't always get worms.  Sometimes they get cats.

 

Put yourself in the airlines' shoes.  What's the price of a gallon of Jet A fuel going to be in 10 months?  How about the hourly wages of bag handlers in Atlanta or Amsterdam?  What if a recession, or a reawakening of a pandemic, occurs starting this autumn?  

 

If the answer to these questions is "I don't know," then the smart move on the airlines part would be to set prices high enough that they can still turn a profit even if their direct or indirect costs spike in the meantime.  If their costs don't go up, great, more profit.  

 

As you know, there isn't one price for, say, a coach seat between LAX or SFO and, say, Amsterdam.  There are literally dozens of fare "buckets," each with a different price and different conditions - length of stay, cancellation or change penalties, yadda yadda.  The airlines publish these fares, but don't have to sell seats in any or all of them at any given time.  So in July 2022, they'll only sell seats in higher-priced buckets for flights departing in May 2023, in order to lock in profits that might leak out if lower-priced buckets are sold now.  

 

Other airlines have different algorithms (all of them top secret) that they use to determine when given fares are released and under what circumstances, so if you see something that appeals now with another airline, by all means go for it.  But don't assume Delta's prices won't come down as the flight date approaches.  They probably will, but when and by how much - well, you'll need an advance degree from Hogwarts to figure that out.

Gardyloo that's fascinating about the buckets.  It makes sense, why would you give away the most desirable product immediately. Domestically in the United States I tend to fly Southwest, and it seems that with those fares as quickly as I can buy them is the best option usually.  You aren't kidding about an advanced degree from Hogwarts, this is awfully puzzling to try to figure out.

[Levi is good]

On 7/19/2022 at 6:36 PM, Azulann said:

Exactly, my reason to  fly Delta to Europe in 2023. I live 10 minutes from MSP. Get on the daily flight to AMS and then KLM to Stockholm and on return Copenhagen to AMS to MSP. 

CONVENIENCE is worth to me. I will never be able to flying Delta One class, but a nice window  and aisle seat in economy is just fine. to get to Europe and back. the  Sky pesos are just a little bonus to use before I die.😇

Azulann that is an interesting idea, so you would use Delta for the transatlantic portion, use a different airline within your travels, then return to your point of origin for return trip with Delta?  

[Azulann]

1 hour ago, Levi is good said:

Azulann that is an interesting idea, so you would use Delta for the transatlantic portion, use a different airline within your travels, then return to your point of origin for return trip with Delta?  

Yes, MSP is a hub for Delta. They also have direct flights to Paris . Rather leave and return from MSP than Atlanta or JFK. KLM is  in alliance with Delta. so one ticket and my bags  go all the way through to my destination.

 

[purduemom1]

10 hours ago, Levi is good said:

Azulann that is an interesting idea, so you would use Delta for the transatlantic portion, use a different airline within your travels, then return to your point of origin for return trip with Delta?  

Delta does not operate any flights within Europe.To and from yes, within, no.

[notscb]

On 7/18/2022 at 12:30 PM, Levi is good said:

catch a cruise next May,

 

Please, please do yourself a favor and go in and set a google flights tracker if you still have this much time. Fares right now are super high but have been dropping over the last two or so weeks. When I was looking at airfare to BCN from the states- it was about 1300 round trip (more than we paid for our cruise), but dropped a few times after we first saw that rate.

 

Alternatively, you could purchase a refundable fare if you find a good one this early out and just have it refunded if you see something better (reminder that the refund process can take weeks)

[Levi is good]

On 7/22/2022 at 8:25 PM, purduemom1 said:

Delta does not operate any flights within Europe.To and from yes, within, no.

That explains a lot. 😳 Thank you.  

[Levi is good]

On 7/24/2022 at 5:22 PM, notscb said:

 

Please, please do yourself a favor and go in and set a google flights tracker if you still have this much time. Fares right now are super high but have been dropping over the last two or so weeks. When I was looking at airfare to BCN from the states- it was about 1300 round trip (more than we paid for our cruise), but dropped a few times after we first saw that rate.

 

Alternatively, you could purchase a refundable fare if you find a good one this early out and just have it refunded if you see something better (reminder that the refund process can take weeks)

Absolutely.  Will do.  I'd forgotten about the Google flight tracker.

[MSUjohn]

On 7/22/2022 at 1:10 PM, Levi is good said:

Azulann that is an interesting idea, so you would use Delta for the transatlantic portion, use a different airline within your travels, then return to your point of origin for return trip with Delta?  

delta has several "alliance partners"/ code shares in Europe. these are off the top of my head:  air france, csa czech airlines and KLM.

you buy one ticket and connect through the partners.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by MSUjohn

[notscb]

On 7/27/2022 at 12:46 PM, Levi is good said:

Absolutely.  Will do.  I'd forgotten about the Google flight tracker.

 

I also forgot- flightconnections (.com) might be your friend in that you can put in your origin and destination and see who is flying there via which city. It might help you narrow down which airline might be best to fly given # of routes.

[travelplus]

When I  book my Airfare using SkyScanner and then  use the Airline Direct booking link I ask myself these questions:

 

1. Is the airfare a price I am willing to part with? 

2. Does the airfare include luggage and seats? If I have to prebook seats I am going to do it earlier rather than later to get my prefered seats!

3. How  is the itinerary? Can I earn Frequent Flier miles?

 

So for instance we booked SFO-Phuket $980 r/t from SFO in February for a month and that is a good airfare on Singapore Air. I am not comfortable transiting through China nor do  I want to fly Air China.  Also we can use the lounge for our overnight layover. 

 

For Europe I found Vuelling flights from LGW-ORY for $103 and from ORY-PRG for $67 with luggage and seats. Too good to pass up. From PRG-TLV I got it for $200 and this is reasonable. From TLV-SFO I found a good itinerary on Lufthansa /Condor for $980 one way in September around the Jewish Holidays with the Condor flight being in Premium. Other options were $300 more or I could go via Dubai but add  uncnessary flying time. 

 

The Virgin Flights were with Carnival Fly2Fun and I got it for my Father and I at  $570 and my Mother at $470 when she diecided to join on the Nonstop Flight. One ways are $800, 

 

Other factors are 2 stops, 3 stops and on SkyScanner they have these ridicousy low fares but you have to self-transfer from ORY-CDG which eats into your savings as well as an overnight at a hotel. So yea t he $400 fare is now suddenly $600 no thank you. 

 

We are not by any means so frugal that we are going to sacrfice comfort. I also look at the air craft operating and I prefer the 787 and A350  due to it helping with Jetlag but I do like the Condor 767 with the 2-4-2 and booked the Bulkhead and Row 7 for my Parents.  We leave Tel Aviv at 4:40 AM and arrive at 3:20 the same afternoon good times. The United Flight was $200 more with seats at $50 more for good seats.  

 

I am not expecting first class I am happy for extra legroom , decent food and included bubbly and other drinks which makes for a relaxing 12 hour day flight.  I  consider the $170 upgrade which includes a hot and cold meal, drinks, extra legroom, entertainment , Priority Baggage Handeling and Seats to be worth it. Maybe to some its not.  Actually the Condor /Lufthansa flight is going for the same cost as other regular cramped seats.  34 vs 30 inches of legroom makes the diference worth it.   Plus they give us larger pillows and a good blanket with an amenity kit. There are only 35 Premium Seats.

 

Business Class is way too expensive.   

 

Overall there are many factors when booking. I am not necessairly looking for the cheapest airfare. I want the extras SIngapore gives in Economy Class like Cognac in Coach, Inflight Entertainment , good meals and good service.  On the longhaul flights I got the row where there is no seat in front of me with extra legroom. 

 

 

[OnTheJourney]

On 7/18/2022 at 12:30 PM, Levi is good said:

Delta is about $500 higher than other airlines for this flight.

I'm finding just the opposite to be true for an international itinerary I need for January. Delta is coming in much cheaper than the AA, BA, and United options I looked at. Just depends on the specific itinerary I suppose.