New Carnival ships?

[toad455]

With the Jubilee set to debut very soon and the Firenze moving to the Carnival fleet, that would give Carnival 27 ships total by May 2024. There are no new builds set for Carnival currently. The Elation and Paradise are currently 25 years old. Thoughts on when Carnival orders a new build? Or could we see other Costa ships moved into the Carnival brand?

[mz-s]

It depends on how successful the current "Costa by Carnival" ships are for Carnival as to if they continue the concept.

It's their only hope to keep the Carnival brand relevant over the coming decade, that's for sure. Their fleet really can't compete against the Prima and Icon or even Oasis classes, except on price.

Edited December 21, 2023 by mz-s

[notscb]

48 minutes ago, mz-s said:

except on price.

Which is honestly what matters to most people. If someone is comparing a cruise side by side, price is likely going to win over brand.

[mz-s]

15 minutes ago, notscb said:

Which is honestly what matters to most people. If someone is comparing a cruise side by side, price is likely going to win over brand.

I think that’s an overly broad generalization but beside the point. The problem for carnival is only being able to compete on price isn’t going to get that $30Bn in debt paid off and allow them to build new ships. 

[jimbo5544]

31 minutes ago, notscb said:

Which is honestly what matters to most people. If someone is comparing a cruise side by side, price is likely going to win over brand.

  By the end of 24, there will be new ships on order. There is absolutely zero evidence that you need to be be debt free, to order new ships.  You hit the nail on the head, price almost always wins.  Their advance bookings are off the chart.  If in doubt, you can look at what the market thinks.  https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ccl/forecast/#  

[jiggs]

It is an industry that will be licking wounds from covid for a long time...debt to asset ratios are way out of line, debt to revenue is recovering but there is a long way to go.  I just can't see more orders for new vessels without debt reduction at the CCL parent level.  

[Honolulu Blue]

10 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

  By the end of 24, there will be new ships on order. There is absolutely zero evidence that you need to be be debt free, to order new ships.  

The second sentence is absolutely correct, of course.  RCL and NCLH are similarly indebted to CCL, and they haven't stopped ordering new builds.

 

The first sentence, I'm not so sure about.  Weinstein & Bernstein have both been insistent about no new builds in 2026 on their earnings calls and in public statements throughout this year.  They have another earnings call later this morning, so maybe things might have changed.  Still, I think it's slightly more likely they won't have any new ships on order by the end of '24 than that they will.

[AllgoodOnTheRoad]

11 hours ago, notscb said:

Which is honestly what matters to most people. If someone is comparing a cruise side by side, price is likely going to win over brand.

Price is king to me, I have little brand loyalty, it is all about how many days a year I can be at sea on a cruise. 

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, Honolulu Blue said:

The second sentence is absolutely correct, of course.  RCL and NCLH are similarly indebted to CCL, and they haven't stopped ordering new builds.

 

The first sentence, I'm not so sure about.  Weinstein & Bernstein have both been insistent about no new builds in 2026 on their earnings calls and in public statements throughout this year.  They have another earnings call later this morning, so maybe things might have changed.  Still, I think it's slightly more likely they won't have any new ships on order by the end of '24 than that they will.

We will see.  I think the placing of an order will be more symbolic than financial in nature.  The debt discussion is simply a variable as to size, financial stability is a totally different topic.  They have doe a pretty masterful job of refinancing from the horrendous times in the throes of the covid mandated shutdown to WAY better terms today and while reducing debt.  Is there risk?  Sure, there is with any debt.  10 years from now (God willing) we will be having a discussion about how the proliferation of over the top mega of the seas RCCL ships and glut tot he market led to their demise.

[jimbo5544]

36 minutes ago, AllgoodOnTheRoad said:

Price is king to me, I have little brand loyalty, it is all about how many days a year I can be at sea on a cruise. 

As it should be for the majority.

[shof515]

I think Carnival is waiting to see what the market will be like in the next couple of years. The trend the past few years was huge big ships. they are limitations of that type of ship with sailing under bridges and other port restrictions

 

i got a feeling they will be a return of the mid size ships with a capacity of around 3k or so people that can go to pretty much any port in the world and sail under bridges. Something similar to the Norwegian prima/viva class ships or like royal upcoming project discovery ships 

[mz-s]

11 minutes ago, shof515 said:

I think Carnival is waiting to see what the market will be like in the next couple of years. The trend the past few years was huge big ships. they are limitations of that type of ship with sailing under bridges and other port restrictions

 

i got a feeling they will be a return of the mid size ships with a capacity of around 3k or so people that can go to pretty much any port in the world and sail under bridges. Something similar to the Norwegian prima/viva class ships or like royal upcoming project discovery ships 

 

Those ships are still too big to fit under the bridges that many of us think of, like the one at JAX or Tampa. But they can still do tendering at places like Grand Cayman so that is useful I suppose. The megaships are too big to do tendering, by the time everyone gets off it's time to start getting them back on to leave.

[jimbo5544]

20 minutes ago, shof515 said:

I think Carnival is waiting to see what the market will be like in the next couple of years. The trend the past few years was huge big ships. they are limitations of that type of ship with sailing under bridges and other port restrictions

 

i got a feeling they will be a return of the mid size ships with a capacity of around 3k or so people that can go to pretty much any port in the world and sail under bridges. Something similar to the Norwegian prima/viva class ships or like royal upcoming project discovery ships 

From your lips….  It makes total sense they wait now, any other path would be foolish.  Mega liners have way more restrictions than the bridge issues like Jacksonville, Baltimore Tampa etc.  The behemoths cannot dock in may islands, no tender ports  and there are capacity issues as well.    

Edited December 21, 2023 by jimbo5544

[CruiseAdict218]

I would hope they go back to a mid-size before going big or similar to Excel.

 

With the European brands on the up swing as well, I don’t think we will see any more ships moved to Carnival from Costa but that could always change. 

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

I would hope they go back to a mid-size before going big or similar to Excel.

 

With the European brands on the up swing as well, I don’t think we will see any more ships moved to Carnival from Costa but that could always change. 

Monstrosity of the seas, that cannot do tender ports, that cannot dock at many ports are not the answer for the vast majority of Carnival cruisers.  Been there, done it will not go back.

[dolphinsfan246]

They seem pretty adamant about having no new build orders until 2026. With that I wouldn’t expect a “new” ship until 2029 or 2030. What I do expect is a “sunshining” of the Conquest or Spirit class to fill the gap years. I really hope they don’t rename the Conquest class though. Those names have special meaning to many. This would be a long shot but if the “Costa by Carnival” concept is selling as well as the claim it is, they could bring an Excel class ship over to it, in the form of Costa Smeralda or Toscana. Carnival Smeralda doesn’t sound too bad. And put it in Miami to compete with Icon. But since Costa is on the rebound I don’t see that happening. I do believe the only reason Carnival got Venezia and Firenze is because the Asian market collapsed. 

[n6uqqq]

1 hour ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

They seem pretty adamant about having no new build orders until 2026. With that I wouldn’t expect a “new” ship until 2029 or 2030. What I do expect is a “sunshining” of the Conquest or Spirit class to fill the gap years. I really hope they don’t rename the Conquest class though. Those names have special meaning to many. This would be a long shot but if the “Costa by Carnival” concept is selling as well as the claim it is, they could bring an Excel class ship over to it, in the form of Costa Smeralda or Toscana. Carnival Smeralda doesn’t sound too bad. And put it in Miami to compete with Icon. But since Costa is on the rebound I don’t see that happening. I do believe the only reason Carnival got Venezia and Firenze is because the Asian market collapsed. 

Thankfully the Spirit class cannot be "sunshined" very much. No aft lounge to get rid of. Can't do a whole lot more than what happened to the Pride with the lower part of the night club removed and converted to 5 staterooms and a dedicated chef's table room. This change was reasonable imho. I found the Radiance to be just too crowded for my taste. 

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

They seem pretty adamant about having no new build orders until 2026. With that I wouldn’t expect a “new” ship until 2029 or 2030. What I do expect is a “sunshining” of the Conquest or Spirit class to fill the gap years. I really hope they don’t rename the Conquest class though. Those names have special meaning to many. This would be a long shot but if the “Costa by Carnival” concept is selling as well as the claim it is, they could bring an Excel class ship over to it, in the form of Costa Smeralda or Toscana. Carnival Smeralda doesn’t sound too bad. And put it in Miami to compete with Icon. But since Costa is on the rebound I don’t see that happening. I do believe the only reason Carnival got Venezia and Firenze is because the Asian market collapsed. 

I agree that was their intent.  It becomes much more of a marketing thing than a cost.  There will be a new ship signing and it will be be for CCL.  Count on it.

[mz-s]

2 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

They seem pretty adamant about having no new build orders until 2026. With that I wouldn’t expect a “new” ship until 2029 or 2030. What I do expect is a “sunshining” of the Conquest or Spirit class to fill the gap years. I really hope they don’t rename the Conquest class though. Those names have special meaning to many. This would be a long shot but if the “Costa by Carnival” concept is selling as well as the claim it is, they could bring an Excel class ship over to it, in the form of Costa Smeralda or Toscana. Carnival Smeralda doesn’t sound too bad. And put it in Miami to compete with Icon. But since Costa is on the rebound I don’t see that happening. I do believe the only reason Carnival got Venezia and Firenze is because the Asian market collapsed. 

 

I don't think the Sunshining of the Destiny class really provided the ROI Carnival was looking for so I don't expect it to extend to the newer classes.

[tidecat]

With Sunshine going to drydock in early 2025, this resets the clock on any ship retirements. I would expect a replacement in late 2027 or early 2028.

 

To me the bigger question mark is the Australia/New Zealand market. Can Carnival Corp grow either the P&O or Carnival Cruise Line brand (or even Princess) in that market?

[dolphinsfan246]

1 hour ago, mz-s said:

 

I don't think the Sunshining of the Destiny class really provided the ROI Carnival was looking for so I don't expect it to extend to the newer classes.

I originally thought that after they waited so long after the Sunshine to do the Sunrise then Radiance. It’s an easy relatively cheap way for them to market a “new” ship to new cruisers who don’t know any better. For example you take a Sunshined Conquest class ship and put it in Mobile, Alabama and call it a new ship and the locals will go ecstatic that they got a new ship. The Sunrise and Radiance remodels were a much more subdued version than the original Sunshine monstrosity. I didn’t even think those renovations warranted a new name. I’d expect something similar for the Conquest class soon, they are showing their age.  

[chengkp75]

8 hours ago, tidecat said:

With Sunshine going to drydock in early 2025, this resets the clock on any ship retirements. I would expect a replacement in late 2027 or early 2028.

Not really.  Dry dockings are mandatory.  If the ship is going to sail beyond the dry dock date (and Sunshine is due in Nov '24), then it has to dry dock, whether they intend to scrap it 2 months later, or sell it the next week.  Even if a contract for sale was in the works, at the time the dry dock was due, Carnival would still have to go through the dry dock.  Some sales done a short time before a ship is due to be sold, will require a dry dock before the sale goes through.  If the ship does not dry dock within the statutory period, it loses it's "certificate of class" (think of your car's safety sticker), and without that certificate, it loses it's "Register" (think of your car's title) from the flag state, and can no longer sail at all.

[chengkp75]

8 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I originally thought that after they waited so long after the Sunshine to do the Sunrise then Radiance. It’s an easy relatively cheap way for them to market a “new” ship to new cruisers who don’t know any better. For example you take a Sunshined Conquest class ship and put it in Mobile, Alabama and call it a new ship and the locals will go ecstatic that they got a new ship. The Sunrise and Radiance remodels were a much more subdued version than the original Sunshine monstrosity. I didn’t even think those renovations warranted a new name. I’d expect something similar for the Conquest class soon, they are showing their age.  

The problem is that no matter how much lipstick you put on the front of house, you still have a 20+ year old ship.  The classification societies could care less how "fabulous" the hotel amenities look, they are still going to require the cost of inspecting the hull and renewing steel as needed, that happens on an older vessel.  I never really understood Carnival's idea of massive hotel renovations on older ships, as the majority of maintenance costs on older vessels are things you'll never see, like dry dock costs and steel replacement.

[jimbo5544]

30 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

The problem is that no matter how much lipstick you put on the front of house, you still have a 20+ year old ship.  The classification societies could care less how "fabulous" the hotel amenities look, they are still going to require the cost of inspecting the hull and renewing steel as needed, that happens on an older vessel.  I never really understood Carnival's idea of massive hotel renovations on older ships, as the majority of maintenance costs on older vessels are things you'll never see, like dry dock costs and steel replacement.

I would guess it is more for sales and marketing to prolong life span of the product.  I get your point of what is required vs that.  

 

How do they inspect hull?

[mz-s]

10 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I originally thought that after they waited so long after the Sunshine to do the Sunrise then Radiance. It’s an easy relatively cheap way for them to market a “new” ship to new cruisers who don’t know any better. For example you take a Sunshined Conquest class ship and put it in Mobile, Alabama and call it a new ship and the locals will go ecstatic that they got a new ship. The Sunrise and Radiance remodels were a much more subdued version than the original Sunshine monstrosity. I didn’t even think those renovations warranted a new name. I’d expect something similar for the Conquest class soon, they are showing their age.  

 

Any expenditure has to be justified by increasing occupancy (and thus higher rates) or increasing onboard spend or some other metric that drives revenue. I'm not convinced that redecorating the Conquest class would do enough of that to pay off the extensive drydock bill.