stobe1 Posted July 3 #51 Share Posted July 3 These things can be quite unpredictable. Having spent the first half of my life in coastal Florida, I have seen my fair share of hurricanes. One thing is for sure, the actual path of these things are wildly unpredictable. Granted, hurricane tracking technology has undoubtedly improved over the years. However, I seem to recall that Katrina wasn't forecast to hit New Orleans and unfortunately made a last minute turn for it, which is one reason why they were woefully unprepared for it and had as much devastation as they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
havanadaydreaming Posted July 3 #52 Share Posted July 3 We have property on Sanibel FL and havent even begun reconstruction yet. (Almost two years later) Ian was a Cat 5 storm that brought 15 ft storm surge to pair with the 150mph winds. Ive rode out Cat 1s and tropical storms but a true Cat 4-5 scares the curse word out of me now. These recent storms are monsters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare jimbo5544 Posted July 4 #53 Share Posted July 4 Jamaica go glancing blow, appears Caymen will get same. Watch out Mexico https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-07-02-hurricane-beryl-forecast-jamaica-mexico-texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierpop Posted July 4 #54 Share Posted July 4 Here’s to the storm weakening enough that ships can still go to Cozumel. Got some bar hopping to do Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregoryfo Posted July 4 #55 Share Posted July 4 4 hours ago, Hoosierpop said: Here’s to the storm weakening enough that ships can still go to Cozumel. Got some bar hopping to do Tuesday. From the AP article I just read, looks like the most likely path will bring it south of Cozumel. Best of luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Miller Posted July 4 Author #56 Share Posted July 4 Carnival Paradise departed Tampa this afternoon, skipping Cozumel and bound for the Bahamas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostsoulcruiser Posted July 5 #57 Share Posted July 5 Latest track of storm. Cozumel and Cancun getting beat up now as Beryl is a Cat 2 storm,, Jamaica got hit bad, Cayman was spared the brunt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supercanadian Posted July 5 #58 Share Posted July 5 Any idea when we may hear about possible cancellations to Jamaica or Grand Cayman? John Heald didn't have much of an update for future cruises on his FB this morning. We leave on the Horizon next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staceyglow Posted July 5 #59 Share Posted July 5 2 hours ago, supercanadian said: Any idea when we may hear about possible cancellations to Jamaica or Grand Cayman? John Heald didn't have much of an update for future cruises on his FB this morning. We leave on the Horizon next week. As a general rule, they wait until the last possible minute to change an itinerary. They want to stick to the original itinerary as much as they can, and if there's any possibility they can keep it, they will wait. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierpop Posted July 5 #60 Share Posted July 5 14 minutes ago, staceyglow said: As a general rule, they wait until the last possible minute to change an itinerary. They want to stick to the original itinerary as much as they can, and if there's any possibility they can keep it, they will wait. Yeah, Heald posted this morning that the Valor was still headed to Cozumel for a stop tomorrow as they survey how things are in Cozumel. Now that is last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare BlerkOne Posted July 5 #61 Share Posted July 5 Some oil rigs in the Gulf are evacuating as the storm projected to curl more to the north. Could be rock and roll for some cruise ships even after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Fart Cruisers Posted July 5 #62 Share Posted July 5 https://www.carnival-news.com/2024/07/04/beryl-updates-carnival-continues-to-monitor-forecast-and-adjusts-itineraries Updated: July 5, 2024 at 11:15 A.m. Itineraries have been adjusted for Carnival Paradise, Carnival Breeze, Carnival Liberty and Carnival Horizon. No changes have been made to homeport operations at this time. The safety of our guests and crew is paramount, and we are continuing to monitor forecasts and factor in guidance from the National Hurricane Center, U.S. Coast Guard, and the local port authorities. If we need to make any changes to itineraries, guests will be notified. Our thoughts are with those who are being impacted by the storm. Carnival's Fleet Operations Center in Miami and onboard teams at sea continue to track Hurricane Beryl for possible impacts to sailing routes. As we head into the busy summer travel season, we encourage our guests to stay abreast of the latest information and opt-in for alerts via Carnival.com. MODIFIED ITINERARIES: Carnival Paradise will visit Nassau, The Bahamas on Saturday, July 6 instead of visiting Cozumel, Mexico. Carnival Breeze did not visit Progreso, Mexico as scheduled on July 4, 2024. Carnival Horizon will add a visit to Nassau on Friday, July 5 instead of visiting Cozumel on Thursday, July 4. The ship's visit to Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands on Wednesday, July 3 was canceled. Carnival Liberty visited Cozumel on Tuesday, July 2 instead of Friday, July 5. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare jimbo5544 Posted July 5 #63 Share Posted July 5 2 hours ago, Hoosierpop said: Yeah, Heald posted this morning that the Valor was still headed to Cozumel for a stop tomorrow as they survey how things are in Cozumel. Now that is last minute. The only way to do it. Try your best to give them what they paid for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostsoulcruiser Posted July 6 #64 Share Posted July 6 Itineraries have been adjusted for Carnival Paradise, Carnival Breeze, Carnival Liberty and Carnival Horizon. No changes have been made to homeport operations at this time. The safety of our guests and crew is paramount, and we are continuing to monitor forecasts and factor in guidance from the National Hurricane Center, U.S. Coast Guard, and the local port authorities. If we need to make any changes to itineraries, guests will be notified. Latest track for the storm now bringing it close to Galveston, homeport to 3 ships. Today's comings and goings should not be impacted but .... Good luck to the people impacted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare jimbo5544 Posted July 7 #65 Share Posted July 7 14 hours ago, lostsoulcruiser said: Itineraries have been adjusted for Carnival Paradise, Carnival Breeze, Carnival Liberty and Carnival Horizon. No changes have been made to homeport operations at this time. The safety of our guests and crew is paramount, and we are continuing to monitor forecasts and factor in guidance from the National Hurricane Center, U.S. Coast Guard, and the local port authorities. If we need to make any changes to itineraries, guests will be notified. Latest track for the storm now bringing it close to Galveston, homeport to 3 ships. Today's comings and goings should not be impacted but .... Good luck to the people impacted. The turn up towards Galveston is an interesting one as you mention regarding homeports. Just another example that shows that forecasting hurricanes is def not a science. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bg2310 Posted July 7 #66 Share Posted July 7 2 hours ago, jimbo5544 said: The turn up towards Galveston is an interesting one as you mention regarding homeports. Just another example that shows that forecasting hurricanes is def not a science. I would say that's more your misrepresentation and misunderstanding of science then. At the end of the day, science is about probabilities, not necessarily certainty. In fact, for many sciences including physics which play a role importantly in everyday things we take for granted, there's always uncertainty. Hence, the "cone of uncertainty" in hurricane forecasting. It's not promising anything certain, only probabilities and likelihood of the path the storm could take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Honolulu Blue Posted July 7 #67 Share Posted July 7 The current forecast from NHC puts the center of (what's left of) Beryl on top of me by late Thursday. I'm not panicking because 1) there's plenty of opportunity for it to change and 2) by the time it gets here, if it does, it will be much less potent than the Category 5 version it was a week ago. Still, it will be interesting to see Miss Beryl near the end of her epic world tour - Barbados! Trinidad and Tobago! St. Vincent and the Grenadines! Grenada! Jamaica! The Cayman Islands! Cozumel! Tulum! Merida! And Galveston (maybe)! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare jimbo5544 Posted July 7 #68 Share Posted July 7 (edited) 8 hours ago, bg2310 said: I would say that's more your misrepresentation and misunderstanding of science then. At the end of the day, science is about probabilities, not necessarily certainty. In fact, for many sciences including physics which play a role importantly in everyday things we take for granted, there's always uncertainty. Hence, the "cone of uncertainty" in hurricane forecasting. It's not promising anything certain, only probabilities and likelihood of the path the storm could take. What did I misrepresent. They give an educated (granted) guess (yup, that is what it is) on path intensity and strength. People base their actions on these guesses. I know there are many factors, but in the real life scenario, the storm changes, against science, past history and the experts. Happens more often than not and it affects the way people react to the various levels of notice given. the affect of that is that the crying wolf so many times for such a large variety of paths and timing, makes people become immune, which can have disastrous results. Recently (Ian in September 22, after the storm they said the cone was just a “guide”. Might have better to say that before the storm…. The storm (up to 6 hours before) was supposed to hit north of Tampa. The reality was a miss by 120 miles. Too late for some to react. Obviously they do the best they can do. But that said, I would give them a grade on C- Edited July 7 by jimbo5544 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Fart Cruisers Posted July 7 #69 Share Posted July 7 https://s3.amazonaws.com/cms.ipressroom.com/412/files/202407/Weathers+Impact+on+Itineraries.mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted July 8 #70 Share Posted July 8 I noticed a post from saltwater moms saying the port closed this morning. They are a shuttle and got word closed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noledad77 Posted July 8 #71 Share Posted July 8 Has anyone seen an update on how Cozumel is fairing this week? First and foremost, I hope the good people of the town there are ok. Second, I hope the port is going to be open for business so that (third) I'll still be able to visit there next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simplelife Posted July 11 #72 Share Posted July 11 On 7/3/2024 at 1:57 PM, stobe1 said: These things can be quite unpredictable. Having spent the first half of my life in coastal Florida, I have seen my fair share of hurricanes. One thing is for sure, the actual path of these things are wildly unpredictable. Granted, hurricane tracking technology has undoubtedly improved over the years. However, I seem to recall that Katrina wasn't forecast to hit New Orleans and unfortunately made a last minute turn for it, which is one reason why they were woefully unprepared for it and had as much devastation as they did. The devastation was not from the hurricane itself, but from the fact the substandard levee system was actually breached, The hurricane had already passed when the city became inundated with water, Had the levees been constructed properly and kept in good condition, the city would have survived with little damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare jimbo5544 Posted July 12 #73 Share Posted July 12 On 7/11/2024 at 2:38 AM, simplelife said: The devastation was not from the hurricane itself, but from the fact the substandard levee system was actually breached, The hurricane had already passed when the city became inundated with water, Had the levees been constructed properly and kept in good condition, the city would have survived with little damage. No dog in this fight, but lots of these pics do not look like the result of "substandard" levy system. It was a monster storm. https://www.istockphoto.com/photos/hurricane-katrina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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