Airfare increase

[runner2013]

Hi all,

Is it usually the norm the closer you get to the date you want to fly the higher the airline tickets are? I seem to remember reading somewhere once you have a date in mind to fly you should buy your airfare as soon as possible.

Does this sound right??

I'm looking at a cruise the end of January and the prices are pretty good. Not sure if I should just purchase them now or wait until I book the cruise-probably another week or so before doing that.

Thanks

[Clarea]

My experience is that our airfare goes up the closer you get to the flight. However, because we fly Southwest almost exclusively, we can book early and get a credit if the airfare goes down, so we are rarely hurt by booking as early as possible on Southwest.

Edited June 30, 2014 by clarea

[Sitzmark]

You don't want to book too far in advance, prices get released 10 or 11 months in advance and are ridiculous. They will fluctuate and generally trend down for several months before starting to go back up. Sweet spot tends to be around 6 weeks ahead of your travel date.

[joepeka]

I have read over the years many times that the airlines start actively managing their flights and prices about 3-4 months ahead and that's also been my observation (prices will begin to change 3-4 months out depending on bookings to that point). As someone mentioned, about 6 weeks out (or perhaps even 8 weeks) is usually a good time to reserve. It does depend on the route however so take all this for what's it's worth. :)

[bouhunter]

Bottom line, get comfortable with what you are willing to pay and go for it when you see that. Buy too early you might pay too much, buy too late you may pay too much. Buy in the middle you might pay too much. Of course you'll always find fares after your purchase that are higher and lower.:mad: It really makes no sense to ask on a message board for advice on this, as you'll get no end to diffent opinions and none may have any real bearing on the prices of the flights you need. Of course they'll all say they have it firgured out when to buy for the best price:D

[Valiamo]

Lots of rumors and lots of myths about how Airline prices fluctuate. I have seen no hard data on the pricing but one has to look at where you are going to and where you are coming from.

 

They say that the first Tuesday evening 6 weeks from your departure date is the best time to get a deal. This might be true on a Chicago to Denver trip in the middle of winter, but try the same trip to Fort Lauderdale, then you are running into the flights being booked up.

 

Heading to a vacation spot on a Friday you are going to see high prices no matter when you book. But fly out on Wednesday, then the prices are usually lower.

 

I fly from Canada, and bought my tickets the day they were available on-line (about 300 days out), we got a smoking deal for less than $450 each (return, taxes included). Currently the Air prices have been sitting at over $775, and have stayed there. I will be checking, around the middle of December to see if there are deals, but I doubt it.

 

You have to watch the flights for a while to get a handle on what they are and what they could be.

 

You can google flight aware insight there is a website that shows the average of the past 12 months for flight prices. Once you have found the sweet spot you are comfortable with, book it.

 

For instance Jet Blue has shown an average price at $177.51, a maximum price of $551, and a minimum of $50. I would say that if you can book at the $177 price point for January then go for it.

Edited June 30, 2014 by Valiamo
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[Jiffymom]

we use mileage points. Book 335 days. I know crazy but I have found the award seats go fast,

[KirkNC]

we use mileage points. Book 335 days. I know crazy but I have found the award seats go fast,

 

Yes the award seats are limited. I don't think I have ever seen international flight costs go down as the flights get closer. The only exception to that was during the intial phases of the financial crisis.

[marci22]

Last year I waited to purchase my NYE week tickets EWR to MCO because the prices seemed too high (400s and 500s when I started looking :eek: )

 

I finally caved and bought them ~$340 per ticket, since the planes looked like they were getting full and that was the first price drop in quite awhile.

 

About a week later, 8 weeks out, (and for the next couple of weeks) the ticket prices dropped into the 200s. They had added flights! And the times were better than what I paid more for! I was pretty mad. (United)

Edited June 30, 2014 by marci22

[Twickenham]

Hi all,

Is it usually the norm the closer you get to the date you want to fly the higher the airline tickets are? I seem to remember reading somewhere once you have a date in mind to fly you should buy your airfare as soon as possible.

Does this sound right??

I'm looking at a cruise the end of January and the prices are pretty good. Not sure if I should just purchase them now or wait until I book the cruise-probably another week or so before doing that.

Thanks

 

One of the quotes in Flyertalker's signature (actually posted by Gardyloo) is particularly relevant here:

 

"Anybody who believes they can out-think the airlines' revenue/yield management computer algorithms is, in my view, delusional."

Ultimately, it really depends. To take use an example, a friend of mine has asked me to search for airfare to FRA for her last-minute - she needs to go on a family matter, and was only finding fares in the $1500 range. While I could see those fares, by playing around with the dates I was also able to find a fare at $879. This is in summer -Europe high season - less than 3 weeks out. But, fly out a day or two before or after, and you can almost double that price.

 

IME, the price and possibility of getting a better fare is entirely dependent on one's flexibility in terms of time/dates and airports. The more restrictions you place on your booking, the less likely you'll be able to take advantage of any seat sales that come along, if they ever do.

[WestfieldTraveler]

there are way too many things that may affect pricing, everything from when a local convention opens up it's bookings (and thus, people start filling up flights) to new competition (and thus fare wars) on the route, and what the airline thinks will happen (infamous NJ state teacher convention holiday when it seems half the population of NJ goes to Orlando, spiking fares 11 months in advance with empty planes)

 

When I pay out of my own pocket, I will usually research fares using either matrix itasoftware com or one of the airfare watchdog sites to get an idea of what is the probable lowest price up to three months out. At that point, depending on how flexible I am I'll wait for my lowest probable price to show up withing a month's time and grab it once it shows up, or else take what is offered about 6-8 weeks out. Usually, I'm flying to Fla and have a choice four airports so I have a few options, including getting there a day earlier and paying for a hotel room and rental car day to save $50-$100 dollars all-in.

 

Really, it depends on how much you feel like gambling - would you be willing to risk maybe end up paying $200 more per person to hope for a price drop of $100 below the usual going rate which is what you think you could afford?

[ducklite]

You don't want to book too far in advance, prices get released 10 or 11 months in advance and are ridiculous. They will fluctuate and generally trend down for several months before starting to go back up. Sweet spot tends to be around 6 weeks ahead of your travel date.

 

Not for certain international destinations where the prices seldom change.

[goose30]

I find that I get the best prices at 2:32 AM on the Tuesday 6 months before I want to travel. However, I have to be sure to put on my old flannel shirt and turn around three times before sitting down and starting the computer.

[ducklite]

I find that I get the best prices at 2:32 AM on the Tuesday 6 months before I want to travel. However, I have to be sure to put on my old flannel shirt and turn around three times before sitting down and starting the computer.

 

You forgot that this only works when there is a full moon and you shake an egg first.

[evanAction]

Hi all,

Is it usually the norm the closer you get to the date you want to fly the higher the airline tickets are? I seem to remember reading somewhere once you have a date in mind to fly you should buy your airfare as soon as possible.

Does this sound right??

I'm looking at a cruise the end of January and the prices are pretty good. Not sure if I should just purchase them now or wait until I book the cruise-probably another week or so before doing that.

Thanks

 

This has been out experience. We primarily fly on Delta out of Detroit. 99% of the time that I've been able to check fares in advance the fares have been cheapest 6 month mark, they hover until 5 month mark which they go up about 15%. At the 4 month mark they go up another 10-20%. These are just estimated %'s, and obviously are also based on a fairly empty plane. I know Delta only has X amount of discounted fare classes per plane.

 

Shouldn't be this complicated! :/

 

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[Globaliser]

Shouldn't be this complicated!

This is what happens in a free market: prices go up and down in response to competitive pressures.

 

Would you prefer the old days of regulated fares and no price competition? Choosing your air fare was much simpler then.

[evanAction]

This is what happens in a free market: prices go up and down in response to competitive pressures.

 

Would you prefer the old days of regulated fares and no price competition? Choosing your air fare was much simpler then.

 

I'll gladly pay whatever as long as air travel remains safe! :)

 

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[Globaliser]

I'll gladly pay whatever as long as air travel remains safe! :)

Back in the old days of regulated fares and no price competition, air travel was also less safe than it is now.

 

When I starrted flying regularly in the mid 1970s, the cheapest economy round-trip ticket between London and Hong Kong cost more than the cheapest economy round-trip ticket between London and Hong Kong today, in pure money terms (ie ignoring the effects of inflation).

 

In real terms (ie allowing for inflation), even today's business class tickets between London and Hong Kong can be cheaper than those mid 1970s economy tickets.

 

Much of that is as a result of the price competition that has turned air fares from a tariff into a market, even though that has made the buying process more complicated.

 

Are you really sure you want to go back to the bad old days? Would you really be glad to pay today's business class prices for economy class travel? I'm not sure you really mean that.

[Bowie MeMe]

Yeah but my first international flight to Belgium in late 70's included real silverware of the metal type -- slightly smaller size that I have used for 30 + years in my lunch bag! (yes I have been reading these threads/pictures too much this week:rolleyes:)

[bouhunter]

I find that I get the best prices at 2:32 AM on the Tuesday 6 months before I want to travel. However, I have to be sure to put on my old flannel shirt and turn around three times before sitting down and starting the computer.

 

Yes this about sums it up. Then factor in departure and arrival airports, time zones, currency exchange rates and whether it's booked on android or apple operating systems.

 

Seriously, there is no rhyme or reason and no way anyone can accurately predict the best time to buy tickets. Even though some folks actually think they have it all figured out.

[waterbug123]

I'm looking at a cruise the end of January and the prices are pretty good. Not sure if I should just purchase them now or wait until I book the cruise-

 

Ask yourself this: Are you willing and able to pay MORE if you wait and the price goes up instead of down?

If no, buy now.

If yes, feel free to wait and gamble.

[WestfieldTraveler]

Or as Clint said, do you feel lucky...

[runner2013]

Since I originally posted this the prices have gone up so I jumped in and booked it now. Now I won't have to worry and check the prices every day.

[TruckerDave]

I find that I get the best prices at 2:32 AM on the Tuesday 6 months before I want to travel. However, I have to be sure to put on my old flannel shirt and turn around three times before sitting down and starting the computer.

 

I book mine sat 2:27am on odd numbered Thursdays and at 2:36am on the even numbered Thursdays. i also make sure the screen on my laptop is facing southeast and i must have a certain Iron Maiden song playing in the background. (The actual CD not a mp3 version). :D