Ebola, are the cruiselines ready?

[dsrdsrdsr]

Ebola outbreaks in humans, until this current bout, have been savage but short. What virologists fear is that with this prolonged outbreak in humans, the virus may have a chance to mutate in humans so that it becomes transmissible airborne. If that happens, we have more things to worry about than a cruise ship being infected.

Are these virologists who fear Ebola might mutate now that several thousand humans have got it - were they ever worried that it might mutate when squillions of animals had it? If yes, then nothing's changed. If no, then perhaps they're just after their 15 minutes of fame.

 

This has more plausibility than the Bird flu and Swine flu nonsenses, which were never threatening from the start, but a worldwide plague isn't likely. A tropical disease which spreads only slowly in the African bush and in overcrowded African cities is highly unlikely to get anywhere in the USA, where (let's face it) not only do most people have access to clean running water, but the majority actually use it.

 

If any virus is going to mutate and become a worldwide killer, why does it have to be something rare and tropical? Why not the common cold?

[cruising cockroach]

Are these virologists who fear Ebola might mutate now that several thousand humans have got it - were they ever worried that it might mutate when squillions of animals had it? If yes, then nothing's changed. If no, then perhaps they're just after their 15 minutes of fame.

 

How it spreads and mutates may differ depending on the host species.

 

This has more plausibility than the Bird flu and Swine flu nonsenses, which were never threatening from the start,

 

See later

 

but a worldwide plague isn't likely. A tropical disease which spreads only slowly in the African bush and in overcrowded African cities is highly unlikely to get anywhere in the USA, where (let's face it) not only do most people have access to clean running water, but the majority actually use it.

 

In its present form, I agree with you that it isn't a threat.

 

If any virus is going to mutate and become a worldwide killer, why does it have to be something rare and tropical? Why not the common cold?

 

Not quite the common cold but the "Spanish" flu of a century ago mutated from something relatively-benign to something very deadly. These flus d have their origins in birds and pigs and humans (the virus travels between species in close proximity, of which China is such a large interchange ground). Fortunately the manifestations of HxNy have been fairly benign. Hopefully they will immunize us older folk against whatever evolves like the "Spanish" flu which generally killed either the young (under ~25) or weak and old.

[dsrdsrdsr]

Not quite the common cold but the "Spanish" flu of a century ago mutated from something relatively-benign to something very deadly. These flus d have their origins in birds and pigs and humans (the virus travels between species in close proximity, of which China is such a large interchange ground). Fortunately the manifestations of HxNy have been fairly benign. Hopefully they will immunize us older folk against whatever evolves like the "Spanish" flu which generally killed either the young (under ~25) or weak and old.

Even the Spanish flu of 1919 would be vastly less serious now than it was then. How many would it have killed if the population had not been exhausted by war, and had lived in centrally heated houses, with ample food, significantly higher reserves of body fat, and had much greater access to doctors, hospitals, and antibiotics to help out with the symptoms?

[cruising cockroach]

Even the Spanish flu of 1919 would be vastly less serious now than it was then. How many would it have killed if the population had not been exhausted by war, and had lived in centrally heated houses, with ample food, significantly higher reserves of body fat, and had much greater access to doctors, hospitals, and antibiotics to help out with the symptoms?

 

The U.S. was not greatly affected by war directly and yet the CDC estimates it killed 675,000 people in the U.S.

 

Antibiotics won't do anything for virus-caused illnesses but may alleviate other secondary (bacterial) infections.

 

What is feared is something (forgive the term) virulent - highly infectious and very deadly.

 

Common STDs, namely syphilis, used to be extremely deadly and nasty when it first appeared in Europe - maiming and disfiguring. It became less nasty quite quickly in order to spread and survive.

 

Maybe ebola may want to become less nasty so it continues to live and spread.

[BruceMuzz]

The US Government could not keep Ebola out of the USA, but the poster wants the Cruise Lines to keep it off the ships.

 

The US Government cannot convince or teach Americans to wash their hands after using the toilet, and so has over 20 million cases of Norwalk Virus every year - 10% of the US Population.

Cruise Lines had 13,000 Norwalk cases last year - 0.001% of our passengers. We also cannot convince people to wash their hands after using the toilet, so we are forced to clean around them fast enough to stop the contagion.

 

We will handle the Ebola threat in a similar fashion.

You might pray that the US Government tries to do as good a job as the cruise lines.

[luddite]

The US Government could not keep Ebola out of the USA, but the poster wants the Cruise Lines to keep it off the ships.

 

The US Government cannot convince or teach Americans to wash their hands after using the toilet, and so has over 20 million cases of Norwalk Virus every year - 10% of the US Population.

Cruise Lines had 13,000 Norwalk cases last year - 0.001% of our passengers. We also cannot convince people to wash their hands after using the toilet, so we are forced to clean around them fast enough to stop the contagion.

 

We will handle the Ebola threat in a similar fashion.

You might pray that the US Government tries to do as good a job as the cruise lines.

 

This.

[navybankerteacher]

The U.S. was not greatly affected by war directly and yet the CDC estimates it killed 675,000 people in the U.S.

 

Antibiotics won't do anything for virus-caused illnesses but may alleviate other secondary (bacterial) infections.

 

What is feared is something (forgive the term) virulent - highly infectious and very deadly.

 

Common STDs, namely syphilis, used to be extremely deadly and nasty when it first appeared in Europe - maiming and disfiguring. It became less nasty quite quickly in order to spread and survive.

 

Maybe ebola may want to become less nasty so it continues to live and spread.

 

In 1919- 1920 the US population was about 100,000,000. --- meaning that 675,000, was 6.75% of the population - that rate today would mean about 3,000,000 dead.

 

Flu continually mutates, that is why a new vaccine needs to be developed every year - based upon the infections which appear in late winter-early spring.

 

Yes, our medical capabilities are better today - but over-confidence can be dangerous.

[Lavaine]

I guess they could check your pass port for recent travel, but that would be profiling, and we all know people would be in an uproar, if they got wind of that.

Uh, no, it's not. That's screening. Profiling would be checking your passport for recent travel because you 'look African' or because you are carrying a passport from an African nation.

 

Passport screening would allow for a more detailed screening for higher risk passengers.

[Cuizer2]

You might pray that the US Government tries to do as good a job as the cruise lines.

 

Actually I pray that the US Government just does it's job. When that happens, then I'll pray that it does it well.

[Cuizer2]

In 1919- 1920 the US population was about 100,000,000. --- meaning that 675,000, was 6.75% of the population - that rate today would mean about 3,000,000 dead.

 

Flu continually mutates, that is why a new vaccine needs to be developed every year - based upon the infections which appear in late winter-early spring.

 

Yes, our medical capabilities are better today - but over-confidence can be dangerous.

 

675,000 out of 100 million is less than one percent. One million out of 100 million is one percent. 675,00 out of 100 million is 0.675%.

 

If the current population of the US is 320 million, then 0.675% would be 2.16 million.

Edited October 4, 2014 by Cuizer2

[PompeySailor]

Of course nothing will be gained by panic - but citing an initial statistic :

 

 

"1 out of 250,000,000 (incorrect, by the way) : eek: of the US population"

 

is truly inane. After all, case number one in Africa represented much more favorable odds : 1 out of 1,033,000,000 --- and things there are a bit different now.

 

1-318,000,000 already been corrected on that:rolleyes:

3rd world v civilized, there is a significant difference, and having been to Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa.. Not recently I may add.

Facilities and methodology of making people aware of issues such as an outbreak is not as easy there as would be in U.S.

 

Not all have cellphones, TV,s let alone access to daily news. So there are probably 318,000,000 people in the U.S. who have heard of Ebola outbreak in Dallas ( sorry I mean 1 person)

Yet out of the 1,033,000,000 you quoted, is that for the whole continent of Africa? Probably 1/2 if not more do not even now what is happening.

[Hflors]

The US Government could not keep Ebola out of the USA, but the poster wants the Cruise Lines to keep it off the ships.

 

The US Government cannot convince or teach Americans to wash their hands after using the toilet, and so has over 20 million cases of Norwalk Virus every year - 10% of the US Population.

Cruise Lines had 13,000 Norwalk cases last year - 0.001% of our passengers. We also cannot convince people to wash their hands after using the toilet, so we are forced to clean around them fast enough to stop the contagion.

 

We will handle the Ebola threat in a similar fashion.

You might pray that the US Government tries to do as good a job as the cruise lines.

 

Actually I think I trust the cruiselines more than I trust the government including the CDC. As soon as I heard about the cases of the dr and nurse being brought to this country I kept thinking I was listening to an episode of the "Last Ship". Now that we have a man in Dallas in a hospital and something like 4 people in quaritine there with as many as 100 being possibly exposed and now there are two people in Maryland with suppected Elola. I have no faith in the government to be able to protect its citizens against this virus.

Edited October 4, 2014 by Hflors

[cruises42]

From what the CDC says it doesn't seem likely that an outbreak would occur on a cruise sip.

From the CDC: When an infection does occur in humans, the virus can be spread in several ways to others. Ebola is spread through direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes in, for example, the eyes, nose, or mouth) with

 

blood or body fluids (including but not limited to urine, saliva, sweat, feces, vomit, breast milk, and semen) of a person who is sick with Ebola

objects (like needles and syringes) that have been contaminated with the virus

infected animals

Ebola is not spread through the air or by water, or in general, by food. However, in Africa, Ebola may be spread as a result of handling bushmeat (wild animals hunted for food) and contact with infected bats. There is no evidence that mosquitos or other insects can transmit Ebola virus. Only mammals (for example, humans, bats, monkeys, and apes) have shown the ability to become infected with and spread Ebola virus.

[cruisecritiquer]

The US Government could not keep Ebola out of the USA, but the poster wants the Cruise Lines to keep it off the ships.

 

The US Government cannot convince or teach Americans to wash their hands after using the toilet, and so has over 20 million cases of Norwalk Virus every year - 10% of the US Population.

Cruise Lines had 13,000 Norwalk cases last year - 0.001% of our passengers. We also cannot convince people to wash their hands after using the toilet, so we are forced to clean around them fast enough to stop the contagion.

 

We will handle the Ebola threat in a similar fashion.

You might pray that the US Government tries to do as good a job as the cruise lines.

 

The US government is not trying to keep Ebola out of the USA.

[DeeDee Groff]

I don't think there's terribly high risk of widespread ebola disease as it now stands but if the virus should mutate, it could become more communicable and harder to contain. However, in deciding whether or not to cruise, ebola has not factored into my thinking.

 

 

Booked the 2015 Africa Explorer on June 21, am counting down the days, and am not wavering one bit.....

[celticmom2]

I don't let this Ebola "thing" keep me from living my life. I wanna see the world and I'm in the last half century of my life. I wash my hands all other normal things. To incite panic on this is not smart. Live day to day. We're never promised tomorrow anyway. Live for today! :D

[cruisecritiquer]

I don't let this Ebola "thing" keep me from living my life. I wanna see the world and I'm in the last half century of my life. I wash my hands all other normal things. To incite panic on this is not smart. Live day to day. We're never promised tomorrow anyway. Live for today! :D

 

I agree with this. I don't think you should ignore the risks. I think you should be sober and vigilant and pay attention to what's going on around you but I don't think you should live in a state of fear and stop living your life.

[nbsjcruiser]

Heart disease is the number one killer in the US, but I doubt you'll see cruise ship menus going the healthy route or many cruisers picking the healthy options. About 600,000 people die of heart disease in the United States every year–that’s 1 in every 4 deaths. So next time you're on a cruise look around and with probably over 25% of the folks you see (it is a cruise after all) dying of heart disease ask yourself, how many of these people will die from Ebola? Kind of puts things into perspective. Just sayin.

 

You're comparing apples and bowling balls. Last time I checked, heart disease wasn't a disease that could be spread through contact.

[Porthopper101]

I agree with this. I don't think you should ignore the risks. I think you should be sober and vigilant and pay attention to what's going on around you but I don't think you should live in a state of fear and stop living your life.

 

 

I agree. We are leaving on 01-10-2015 for 180 days world cruise. We have 13 ports 18 days in South Africa. Like you posted; we will be sober and vigilant and pay attention to what's going on around us.

 

M

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Forums

[navybankerteacher]

 

Now back to Ebola-it is spread by BODILY FLUIDS or someone coughing DIRECTLY into your face. It is not airborne. There is a book written by Glenn Close's father, a doctor who worked in Africa during the first of the Ebola outbreaks in the mid 90's. First time I read it, I made the comment to my husband "we are one plane ride away from a devastating plague". He pooh-poohed the idea. Wish he was still alive today to see this possibility come to fruition.

 

While Ebola virus "IS" spread by "BODILY FLUIDS", there is no guarantee that that will continue to be the case. Viruses have an extraordinary ability to evolve rather quickly - thus the new strain of Flu vaccine that must be developed each year to attempt to stay ahead of the evolution of the likely prevalent strain.

 

With human populations continually growing, and ever-denser land use being the norm, repetitions of surprises like SARS and Avian Flu have to be anticipated. While there is no ground for panic concerning Ebola, there is also no rationale for complacency.

[point to point]

Recently the airlines have begun to get quite serious about their role in Ebola, and you can be sure that plans have begun to screen travelers in light of the seriousness of this virus.

How quickly the governments will react and in what manor is still up there, but when AIDS started to get more publicity it went in a similar way.

Unfortunately EBOLA doesn't even compare to the contagiousness of AIDS.

Expect there will be major travel compromises in the future.

We must find a way to eliminate EBOLA.

Education is key as always.

[Zodie2]

How thorough is the health check for returning crew members after their home leaves. Many are from countries where Ebola is an issue.

[Floridiana]

How thorough is the health check for returning crew members after their home leaves. Many are from countries where Ebola is an issue.

 

I have yet to see crew members from West Africa where Ebola has spread. Some are from South Africa, Canada and the US. Most crew are from Asian countries and also Europe.

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

Asking questions won't to anything. The guy from Liberia was asked before he boarded the plane if he was exposed and he said no. People will just lie because the alternative will be no vacation for them. I am not worried so much about the passengers but about the crew. Don't forget about them, returning from time off or visiting family, sneezing on food. And should stay out of the pools.

Very good points..

[cruisemom42]

While Ebola virus "IS" spread by "BODILY FLUIDS", there is no guarantee that that will continue to be the case. Viruses have an extraordinary ability to evolve rather quickly - thus the new strain of Flu vaccine that must be developed each year to attempt to stay ahead of the evolution of the likely prevalent strain.

 

 

Concern about the virus mutating in a way that will change its method of transmission is very overblown.

 

I don't believe there has EVER been a virus affecting humans that has changed its method of transmission. Yes, strains of influenza vary over time. But the way in which flu is spread doesn't change. The way HIV is spread hasn't changed. The way that Hepatitis C is spread hasn't changed.

 

But you don't have to take my word for it. Read this well-written column by a prominent virologist from Columbia University:

 

http://www.virology.ws/2014/09/18/what-we-are-not-afraid-to-say-about-ebola-virus/