What does the future of cruising look like?

[Paulchili]

14 minutes ago, susiesan said:

There should be a distinction between people dying of the Wuhan virus and dying because of one of their underlying conditions.

I disagree.

Those who are diabetic may have higher mortality rate when contracting COVID-19 but they would not have died without the COVID-19 - at least not now from Diabetes.

Thus their cause of death IS COVID-19 - ditto for other underlying medical illnesses (obesity, chronic lung disease, heart disease, etc) that would not cause them to die at this moment (maybe eventually)

Their sudden demise is due to COVID-19.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Paulchili

[deadzone1003]

1 hour ago, clo said:

I'm curious how you know all of this that present as facts. No links to reputable and verifiable citations?

This disease is so new.  There is no way you are going to get any formal studies because it takes 12-18 months to do this under their (FDA or CDC) guidelines.  Basically, everyone is flying blind.  There are no cures, vaccines, or acknowledged treatment for this disease.  You are going to have to rely on anecdotal evidence.  There are alot of studies about this disease, but all of them are rushed and would not qualify as formal studies.  But, people are releasing them because they feel they have something important to say.  All of them put their names and reputations on the line when they release their information in such a manner.  Much of the information I tried to cross-check with other known informal studies (as that's the only thing we have).  Hydroxychloroquine was disparaged by the media because Trump had mentioned it as a potential treatment.  I already knew that the Chinese and Korea were using this drug since February - kind of hard to footnote it as I was in the middle of cruise in February    All I am trying to do is get people to realize that HC is an option and that you shouldn't be afraid of it if you happened to be offered during treatment of the Wuhan virus.   Above all, you shouldn't wait around to fight this virus at home if you have an underlying condition.  I have come across various studies about the suppression of the immune system by this virus.  Because I was following this virus since January plus I have been stuck at home for the last 4 weeks, I have time to absorb reams of information.  However, everything has to have a logical progression for me to really consider it valid information.  For example, Hydrochloroquine and zinc does not kill the virus.  Because virus replicate itself by creating RNA in a human cell, the RNA gets discharged and join up with othe RNA to create a new virus cell.  Hydrochloroquine can attach itself to a human cell, but allows the zinc as a channel to enter the cell to stop the replication of the RNA.  Now everything starts to make sense as to how these two drugs work.  Hydroxychloroquine also stops the virus from entering the human cell, but the two drugs seem to work a little faster in tandem.  When your immune system wakes up, it starts killing the virus.  The drugs stops the virus from replicating so your immune system can catch up to the virus.  Kids under 12 have an immune system similiar to yours, but kids have their immune system on high alert.  It appears the virus can't suppress their immune system enough so the virus gets attacked early by their immune system.  They may have the Wuhan virus, but their immune system is taking care of the virus at a much early stage, so the standard symptoms may not even show up.  

 

FYI - the Nevada prison system had bought alot of Hydrochloroquine for the prisoners, apparently after your governor made his decision, but there is not one prisoner who has the virus.  Are they violating your Governor's edict?  Should they be charged for hoarding?

[clo]

11 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

This disease is so new. 

Thank you so much for your elaboration. My reading of the previous one sounded so authoritarian so I didn't react well. I have a good bit of medical background and am a self-described 'info junkie.' I've been saying for three years now that I don't care what anyone thinks/feels/believes, just the facts. You're clearly someone I'm going to be paying attention to.

[bigmjh]

This topic seems to have been derailed and is speeding along as a discussion of the Corona virus and COVID-19. Going back to OP's topic - "What Does The Future of Cruising Look Like?" - IMHO, two similar words ... DISMAL and BLEAK. With everything working against it - (1) No vaccine for the virus; (2) No proven remedies to mitigate the symptoms of COVID-19; (3) Economies around the world being knocked off their feet with businesses failing and unemployment skyrocketing; and, finally, (4) Cruise-lines (and all of the travel related industries) struggling under huge mounds of accumulating debt - the future outlook for cruising in the near future can only be described a dismal and bleak ... despite those that cling to the hope that all will return to "normal".  😞

[LHT28]

9 minutes ago, bigmjh said:

This topic seems to have been derailed and is speeding along as a discussion of the Corona virus and COVID-19. Going back to OP's topic - "What Does The Future of Cruising Look Like?" - IMHO, two similar words ... DISMAL and BLEAK. With everything working against it - (1) No vaccine for the virus; (2) No proven remedies to mitigate the symptoms of COVID-19; (3) Economies around the world being knocked off their feet with businesses failing and unemployment skyrocketing; and, finally, (4) Cruise-lines (and all of the travel related industries) struggling under huge mounds of accumulating debt - the future outlook for cruising in the near future can only be described a dismal and bleak ... despite those that cling to the hope that all will return to "normal".  😞

 Just add to all the doom & gloom  our health officials  are saying this could last in waves from 18 to 24 mths

 Stop the world I want to get off 😲

[deadzone1003]

19 minutes ago, clo said:

Thank you so much for your elaboration. My reading of the previous one sounded so authoritarian so I didn't react well. I have a good bit of medical background and am a self-described 'info junkie.' I've been saying for three years now that I don't care what anyone thinks/feels/believes, just the facts. You're clearly someone I'm going to be paying attention to.

Thank you, I normally do not do this.  But, because I have been following this virus since it broke because it might affected my cruise - I was on the Oceania Nautica which was supposed to be go from Cape Town to Singapore, boarding on Feb. 3, 2020.  We had to fly through Hong Kong on both sides of our cruise so I had an intense interest on what was going on.  With my self quarantine plus the government imposed quarantine, I had alot time to follow this virus.  There was simply too much false important information spreaded by MSM, scaring people with this disease where it really had an effect on their lives, especially concerning Hydrochloroquine, that I feel obligated to give out this information.   Did you know that Kenya has only a couple of hundred of cases of this disease even though there are many Chinese in their country, doing infrastructure work as well as the usual assortment of trade people, for months, maybe years.  Look how it work out for Italy.  Kenya is a malaria prone country where they probably use Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine during the wet season.  It is doubtful that blacks are resistant to the disease, just ask the blacks in South Africa.  It doesn't take a genius to at least look into that.  Gov. Cuomo already alluded to that in a press conference.   Right now, take the standard precautions as they say in the media.  Be careful of your grandkids, if they catch the virus, they will probably be asymptomatic.  It is my logical observation that kids under 12 can catch the virus, but their immune system will attack the virus immediately, thereby not allowing the symptoms to develop except maybe fever - can't find confirmation but it seems illogical for them not to be able to catch it.  They catch other coronavirus like the common cold.

 

Here's another piece of anecdotal evidence - the Wuhan virus started in November 2019 - my evidence was my wife told me in January that people in social media (WeChat) were talking about a SARS-like virus in Wuhan in November.  

[Paulchili]

41 minutes ago, LHT28 said:

Stop the world I want to get off 😲

Where do you want to go? 

Maybe I'll go with you.😀

Edited April 3, 2020 by Paulchili

[deadzone1003]

22 minutes ago, bigmjh said:

This topic seems to have been derailed and is speeding along as a discussion of the Corona virus and COVID-19. Going back to OP's topic - "What Does The Future of Cruising Look Like?" - IMHO, two similar words ... DISMAL and BLEAK. With everything working against it - (1) No vaccine for the virus; (2) No proven remedies to mitigate the symptoms of COVID-19; (3) Economies around the world being knocked off their feet with businesses failing and unemployment skyrocketing; and, finally, (4) Cruise-lines (and all of the travel related industries) struggling under huge mounds of accumulating debt - the future outlook for cruising in the near future can only be described a dismal and bleak ... despite those that cling to the hope that all will return to "normal".  😞

It does look dismal and bleak for the immediate future.  I guess you didn't read my entry 127.  How can you have a vaccine for a new disease?  There are vaccines on the pipeline, but they have to be tested thoroghly by thegovernment as it takes time - mostly because you are usually affecting someone with a mild dosage of that disease - that gets a little tricky - you don't want to give someone the disease per se.  There is a remedy to mitigate the symptoms of COVID-19 - it is called Hydroxychloroquine.  As for the rest, I agree with you.  The only saving grace is the assets of a cruise line are the ships.  If creditors take over their ships, then the ship's real value is being scrap metal (because they can't sell the ship to anyone) and the scrap metal market is likely to be depressed.  The shareholders may have to swap their equity in exchange for the debt, but, at least, the cruise line might survive.  Alot of if's.  

[LHT28]

5 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Where do you want to go? 

Maybe I'll go with you.😀

anywhere   at this point

😁

[Paulchili]

1 minute ago, LHT28 said:

anywhere   at this point

😁

As long as that place is not vegetarian or G*d forbid vegan 😀

[DrHemlock]

Matt Damon told me you can grow potatoes on Mars.

[pinotlover]

I disagree with dead zone on his forecast for the future. There will come a time, in the near future, that the majority of the population,without underlying conditions , say “ Enough”, and break social distancing. They will take their chances on no to non severe symptoms to get it over with and get on with life. Then, until that vaccine is developed and widely circulated, we’ll have  a split society. Those with immunity and rebuilding their lives and those with a host of underlying conditions that remain hunkered down. The US and the world will not stay in isolation indefinitely. 
 

This is an election year in the US. IMO, any politician , in November, attempting to continue imposing social distancing and massive economy shutdowns will fair poorly.

Edited April 3, 2020 by pinotlover

[Paulchili]

2 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I disagree with dead zone on his forecast for the future. There will come a time, in the near future, that the majority of the population,without underlying conditions , say “ Enough”, and break social distancing. They will take their chances on no to non severe symptoms to get it over with and get on with life. Then, until that vaccine is developed and widely circulated, we’ll have  a split society. Those with immunity and rebuilding their lives and those with a host of underlying conditions that remain hunkered down. The US and the world will not stay in isolation indefinitely. 

Are you ready to go out now? If not, when? Do you feel lucky - to paraphrase Dirty Harry.

[clo]

52 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

As long as that place is not vegetarian or G*d forbid vegan 😀

How about some foie gras?

 

[Paulchili]

7 minutes ago, clo said:

How about some foie gras?

 

Yes - I'll go there in a heart beat 😀

[clo]

1 minute ago, Paulchili said:

Yes - I'll go there in a heart beat 😀

Two more pieces in the freezer.

[pinotlover]

15 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Are you ready to go out now? If not, when? Do you feel lucky - to paraphrase Dirty Harry.

Am I ready yes, but I’ll be a trooper for awhile and obey the rules. When might Overall civil disobedience start? By Mother’s Day.

[Paulchili]

15 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

When might Overall civil disobedience start? By Mother’s Day.

Personally I think that is too early.

There will be a price to pay for this "civil disobedience" and not always only by the "rebels" - they will infect many innocent bystanders who were obedient and law abiding.

It will only prolong the crisis.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Paulchili

[deadzone1003]

3 hours ago, susiesan said:

deadzone: I agree with you on the number of deaths from cover 19 being overcounted. Can you cite me a link to an article about this? I can only find one from the Economist and it is behind a paywall. I told my husband this and he doesn't believe it without a reference.

Sorry I didn't see your entry until I had to go back a page to check on something else.  There are a few articles concerning overcounting, but I have yet to find an article that reference any hard data only suspicions.  For example, the Germans had a very, very low death rate for this virus despite the number of cases.  It may have been because Germans demand precision.  If a person died of a heart attack, he was counted as a heart attack even though he was admitted to the hospital as a Wuhan virus case.  But, I see this as a cultural trait rather someone purposely undercounting.  Other countries would have counted it as a covid19 patient.  This may have indicated the true death rate of the virus, but the Germans also have a superb medical system so that is another factor.  It is simply hard to tell at this stage.

[deadzone1003]

43 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I disagree with dead zone on his forecast for the future. There will come a time, in the near future, that the majority of the population,without underlying conditions , say “ Enough”, and break social distancing. They will take their chances on no to non severe symptoms to get it over with and get on with life. Then, until that vaccine is developed and widely circulated, we’ll have  a split society. Those with immunity and rebuilding their lives and those with a host of underlying conditions that remain hunkered down. The US and the world will not stay in isolation indefinitely. 
 

This is an election year in the US. IMO, any politician , in November, attempting to continue imposing social distancing and massive economy shutdowns will fair poorly.

I really don't disagree with you, but that point may be even further down the line than my projection.  Right now, we simply do not produce enough hydroxychloroquine to make my model work at this moment.  When we can treat patients on an outpatient basis, then people can feel safe enough to chance it.  Most people will know how to social distancing themselves.  Here is an early adapter of social distancing:

 

 

[drkitkat123]

1 hour ago, deadzone1003 said:

Sorry I didn't see your entry until I had to go back a page to check on something else.  There are a few articles concerning overcounting, but I have yet to find an article that reference any hard data only suspicions.  For example, the Germans had a very, very low death rate for this virus despite the number of cases.  It may have been because Germans demand precision.  If a person died of a heart attack, he was counted as a heart attack even though he was admitted to the hospital as a Wuhan virus case.  But, I see this as a cultural trait rather someone purposely undercounting.  Other countries would have counted it as a covid19 patient.  This may have indicated the true death rate of the virus, but the Germans also have a superb medical system so that is another factor.  It is simply hard to tell at this stage.

@deadzone1003. This premise is incorrect. If they get admitted with Covid to hospital and die of a heart attack that is a Covid death.  At a basic level that is one of the physiological causes of death in such patients. I think you are over analysing this.

[Paulchili]

7 minutes ago, drkitkat123 said:

@deadzone1003. This premise is incorrect. If they get admitted with Covid to hospital and die of a heart attack that is a Covid death.  At a basic level that is one of the physiological causes of death in such patients. I think you are over analysing this.

Agree. If they die of a heart attack without COVID then heart attack is the cause of death.

[drkitkat123]

10 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Agree. If they die of a heart attack without COVID then heart attack is the cause of death.

Although statistically, I would imagine, to slightly correct myself, there would have to be some patients who happen to have Covid in the community who could die of a heart attack by chance, but I would think this would be still be quite rare. 

[Paulchili]

5 minutes ago, drkitkat123 said:

Although statistically, I would imagine, to slightly correct myself, there would have to be some patients who happen to have Covid in the community who could die of a heart attack by chance, but I would think this would be still be quite rare. 

To be more specific, if a patient is admitted with COVID serious enough to require hospitalization and then dies of a heart attack (or pneumonia, sepsis, multiple organ failure, etc), the cause of death is COVID IMO.

[pinotlover]

5 minutes ago, drkitkat123 said:

Although statistically, I would imagine, to slightly correct myself, there would have to be some patients who happen to have Covid in the community who could die of a heart attack by chance, but I would think this would be still be quite rare. 

How about our opioid drug overdose victims that happen to have Covid? How should they be counted? Now, per my Dr., they are counted as Covid cases.