Buying RCL Stock

[hotsauce126]

11 hours ago, RoyalC said:

Not interested in catching a falling knife. The saying be greedy when others are fearful is garbage!  If you followed that advise, you would have lost over 50% already when the fear started.  

 

You would have lost 50% if your intention was to buy it and sell it a week later. 

[vacationlover_mn]

I also don't want to try to catch a falling knife... However, when it hits $20, I'm buying...

[03063Dad]

Down to $32

[jwc1027]

4 hours ago, 03063Dad said:

Down to $32

Careful people...without bailout they may be headed for bankruptcy

[grandgeezer]

1 minute ago, jwc1027 said:

Careful people...without bailout they may be headed for bankruptcy

A bailout might be unobtainable. Because they are not registered in the U.S., the corporation doesn't pay taxes here, or so I read recently. That would be a hard sell to those of us who do. They are foreign registered to skirt the much more strict regulations here, mainly wages, benefits, etc.

[fred30]

Plus, why would there be a bailout for a company that has a very low percentage of American employees.

[ltlslick1]

Is it time to discuss bailout already? The next 4 months of cruise capacity was likely pretty well booked before the virus really started to ramp up. Offering FCC has allowed the company to push demand forward into the summer season. No doubt they will be taking a serious haircut in the meantime until things improve but between the expenditures they can cut and cash draw downs I would think they could float themselves for a while. Despite not having mountains of cash on hand, I’d suspect lenders would be more likely to amend loan terms versus seek to take control of collateral. That would save short term cash as well. Also, while I’m sure they are committed to oil at certain prices via hedge agreements, there still should be some tangible benefit from lower petroleum prices. Bottom line, I don’t think it’s a straight line to bankruptcy. 

[fred30]

3 minutes ago, ltlslick1 said:

Is it time to discuss bailout already? The next 4 months of cruise capacity was likely pretty well booked before the virus really started to ramp up. Offering FCC has allowed the company to push demand forward into the summer season. No doubt they will be taking a serious haircut in the meantime until things improve but between the expenditures they can cut and cash draw downs I would think they could float themselves for a while. Despite not having mountains of cash on hand, I’d suspect lenders would be more likely to amend loan terms versus seek to take control of collateral. That would save short term cash as well. Also, while I’m sure they are committed to oil at certain prices via hedge agreements, there still should be some tangible benefit from lower petroleum prices. Bottom line, I don’t think it’s a straight line to bankruptcy. 

It's definitely not a straight line to bankruptcy.    Keeping the company whole would be the best way for the creditors to get their money back.  After all if gets bad enough for bankruptcy the value of the assets would be extremely low as the whole industry will be in the same condition.

 

The way things are going we may start seeing cruise cancellations and that would mean no revenue from those cruises until things start improving.    Going with the FCC was a smart move.  It allows them to keep the cash now.

[ltlslick1]

Just now, fred30 said:

It's definitely not a straight line to bankruptcy.    Keeping the company whole would be the best way for the creditors to get their money back.  After all if gets bad enough for bankruptcy the value of the assets would be extremely low as the whole industry will be in the same condition.

 

The way things are going we may start seeing cruise cancellations and that would mean no revenue from those cruises until things start improving.    Going with the FCC was a smart move.  It allows them to keep the cash now.

Agree, the real question is will the FCC be redeemed at prime pricing or will it be redeemed at some sort of discounted level (if demand does not spring back). 

[fred30]

5 minutes ago, ltlslick1 said:

Agree, the real question is will the FCC be redeemed at prime pricing or will it be redeemed at some sort of discounted level (if demand does not spring back). 

 

I think it all depends on how long it takes to get through this.  Once it's behind us demand will come back but it may take some time.  And hopefully for everyone sake it is sooner rather than later.   We just don't know if this will die down like the flu.

 

 

[Ocean Boy]

I'll buy in if the price is right but I think it has further to go to hit bottom. Spain has closed down to cruise ships for at least the next two weeks. I read on another thread that Grandeur was turned away from St. Thomas and St. Maarten but I have not confirmed that yet. With these two occurrences I can't see this possibly being the bottom. The Med season is not far away and there is no telling right now if ports will be shutting down then.

 

The stock market is always a risk. With RCI stock you risk losing it all or possibly hitting it big. It all depends on your tolerance level. RCI is no Amazon or Exxon Mobil where you might lose some money but they aren't about to disappear or file for bankruptcy protection.

 

Edit: I just checked... down to 29.80 in after hours trading.

[yogimax]

Sort of interesting and this is not a criticism but...

 

all the discussion (due to the topic) is what's best for RCL financially.

 

I hope there are some at RCL headquarters who are also asking a different question, namely, "what's best for the health and well being of our passengers!"

[Hoopster95]

22 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

The Med season is not far away... 

 

Alaska season is one month away for a few ships... full on at the beginning of May. Seattle is already denying the first two ships to arrive April 1 and 4th, and the Canadian governments are in talks to shut down cruising for 60 days. How many ships in total home port in Seattle and Vancouver?

 

I think the very cheapest thing to do for all companies is to park the ships (no fuel costs) and take the beating with anything else (debt load, labor costs, etc). I strictly guessing that (I may be wrong) the worst thing to is sail the ships at full costs (fuel, labor, etc) only half full or less, without the revenue being there to support the sailing. I understand that the current Oceania Riviera sailing is short 475 of it's 1200 cruiser capacity... I can't see that ship making money sailing only 1/2 full.

[Mapleleafforever]

I'm confused as to why anyone would want to bail out a company who doesn't even pay taxes in the US? LOL come on now. There will be other cruise lines to cruise on if they go bankrupt....like for instance whoever buys the Royal ships.....

 

[heatherb1958]

On 3/11/2020 at 9:01 PM, Aintnofun007 said:

i could be wrong, but i thought i remember someone saying they put shareholder on your sea pass? is that accurate or did i just imagine that? lol

if you mean do they put the Shareholder benefit on to your Seapass account to spend onboard the cruise you had it applied to then you are correct. 

 

We purchased our shares at $6 in the crash  of 2008, have had our money back  ten times over in OBC over the years as we usually cruise the cheap seats . 
I have been telling hubby to sell sell sell for over a year as we no longer choose RCI first for our cruises but he was adamant to keep them. He says the market will bounce back but just not as quick as in 2008/9. 
Watch this space . 

[Blizzard54]

23 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Alaska season is one month away for a few ships... full on at the beginning of May. Seattle is already denying the first two ships to arrive April 1 and 4th, and the Canadian governments are in talks to shut down cruising for 60 days. How many ships in total home port in Seattle and Vancouver?

 

 

The 2 cancelled ships were port calls.  The first ship of the season to homeport is scheduled for April 14th   I have not checked the details for this season but I believe there are 12 ships homeporting in both Seattle and Vancouver for a total of 24 ships.

[Hoopster95]

1 minute ago, Blizzard54 said:

 

The 2 cancelled ships were port calls.  The first ship of the season to homeport is scheduled for April 14th   I have not checked the details for this season but I believe there are 12 ships homeporting in both Seattle and Vancouver for a total of 24 ships.

 

Gotcha... just posted in the other corona thread.... BC just announced in a live news conference no non-essential travel anywhere in the world, incl US. If we travel, self-imposed quarantine for 14 days upon return.... also no public events over 250 persons.

I feel Vancouver port will be shut down soon as the cruise season approaches. 

[flyguyjake]

I'm waiting for around $20 also. Question is what happens to stock if a company files bankruptcy?

[dasmonkey]

33 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

I'm waiting for around $20 also. Question is what happens to stock if a company files bankruptcy?

It is worthless and you now can use it as a write off for some of your more profitable investments.  

[Mapleleafforever]

45 minutes ago, flyguyjake said:

I'm waiting for around $20 also. Question is what happens to stock if a company files bankruptcy?

And what happens to all the FCC's and deposits people put down for future cruises? This is a scenario which could play out if this keeps up.....

[Ocean Boy]

7 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

And what happens to all the FCC's and deposits people put down for future cruises? This is a scenario which could play out if this keeps up.....

Someone mentioned, maybe in another thread, that their credit card company said it would refund the money if an FCC lost its value and services were not received due to bankruptcy. Maybe the same would be true of a deposit amount? Of course it probably would vary depending on one's particular card.

[Mapleleafforever]

1 minute ago, Ocean Boy said:

Someone mentioned, maybe in another thread, that their credit card company said it would refund the money if an FCC lost its value and services were not received due to bankruptcy.

I sure hope that goes for regular deposits as well....and flights booked through Choiceair. 

[Ocean Boy]

3 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

I sure hope that goes for regular deposits as well....and flights booked through Choiceair. 

I hope so too. Right now I have one deposit at risk. 

[Blizzard54]

1 hour ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Gotcha... just posted in the other corona thread.... BC just announced in a live news conference no non-essential travel anywhere in the world, incl US. If we travel, self-imposed quarantine for 14 days upon return.... also no public events over 250 persons.

I feel Vancouver port will be shut down soon as the cruise season approaches. 

A few days ago the Governor of Washington State imposed a 30 day period of no gatherings over 250 people.  If that is extended the first scheduled Homeport turnaround scheduled for April 14th could not take place.  

[taglovestocruise]

from Forbes today.

Royal Caribbean stock has fared worse than the broader markets through the current crisis but it is possible that it could bounce back strongly and potentially outperform as the crisis winds down. For perspective, the stock rose 320% between March 2009 and January 2010, compared to a 48% rise for the S&P – bla bla bla .....

 

Conclusion

 

• While Royal Caribbean stock has seen a sharp decline due to the Coronavirus/Oil Price War crisis faring far worse than the broader markets, it’s possible that it could also bounce back strongly and potentially outperform as the crisis winds down.