SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!

[les37b]

24 minutes ago, jimdee3636 said:

They say you have to crawl before you can walk, and these Cruises to Nowhere are the equivalent of a baby crawling. I'm glad RCCI and other lines are doing them, and if I lived in Singapore and had a few days with nothing better to do I'd volunteer for one. I'm sure it would be an interesting experience. But there's no way I'd get on a plane to fly to L.A. or Miami for something like that. Let's hope these test cruises are a big success, so that the baby can start walking and keep walking! 

 

When my Wind Tower Bridge / Norway cruise was cancelled, I did actually suggest at the time to my agent at SS, that I'd be happy to sail non landing to these places and just admire the locations from close proximity, sailing up and down as many Fjords as I could. Still think its feasible for the near future and it certainly brings in revenue without the risks of taking infections into foreign lands.

 

 

[crusinbanjo]

Does any one think the cruise lines will be open in March or April of 2021, for anything like a normal cruise?   Mrs Banjo and I are thinking we might test the waters on a September 2021 booking,  but we are still unsure and skeptical if it would actually happen.......  Any thoughts?

 

[TLCOhio]

4 hours ago, jimdee3636 said:

They say you have to crawl before you can walk, and these Cruises to Nowhere are the equivalent of a baby crawling. I'm glad RCCI and other lines are doing them, and if I lived in Singapore and had a few days with nothing better to do I'd volunteer for one. I'm sure it would be an interesting experience. But there's no way I'd get on a plane to fly to L.A. or Miami for something like that. Let's hope these test cruises are a big success, so that the baby can start walking and keep walking! 

 

Very good comments and follow-ups from worldtraveller99, jimdee3636, Les and Mr. Banjo.  Agree for the cruise ships doing "Cruises to Nowhere", it is partly about their cash flow, but also about proving to the CDC and customers that they can do things "THE RIGHT WAY".  Agree with Mr. Banjo that summer or September 2021 is more likely for starting to get back to some form approaching a type of "normal".   Whatever "normal" means??!!

 

From the New York Times yesterday, they had this headline: “The Newest Hotel Amenity? Virus-Scrubbed Air"  with this sub-headline: "Hotels, and even some cruise ships, are installing state-of-the-art filtration systems that claim to tackle the coronavirus where it is believed to be the most dangerous: in the air.”

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “When the coronavirus first hit, hotels quickly adopted enhanced cleaning polices, including germ-killing electrostatic spraying and ultraviolet light exposure in guest rooms and public areas.  But as research on virus spread has shifted focus from surface contact to airborne transmission, some hotels and cruise ships are scrubbing the very air travelers breathe with a variety of air filtration and treatment systems.  'The best amenity that any hotel could provide under those circumstances is safety, especially in the air,' said Carlos Sarmiento, the general manager of the Hotel Paso del Norte in El Paso, Texas. The 1912 vintage hotel recently reopened after a four-year renovation that included installing a new air purification system called Plasma Air that emits charged ions intended to neutralize the virus and make particles easier to filter out.  With the new air-scrubbing campaigns, hotels are following airlines, many of which have hospital-grade, high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters that are said to be over 99 percent effective in capturing tiny virus particles, including the coronavirus.  Hotels and cruise ships can more easily ensure social distancing than airplanes, but, given the recent research on the importance of enhanced air filtration, some are adding air-cleaning dimensions to their heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which already aim to remove dust, smoke, odors and allergens.  Researchers, including those at New Orleans’s Tulane University, have found that the tiny aerosol particles of SARS-CoV-2 that are emitted when someone with the virus speaks or breathes can remain in the air for up to 16 hours.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/03/travel/air-filtration-hotels-cruises.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed last summer Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog at: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[Stumblefoot]

34 minutes ago, crusinbanjo said:

Does any one think the cruise lines will be open in March or April of 2021, for anything like a normal cruise?

If by “normal” you mean no mask requirements, or excursions arranged by the guest, then absolutely not.  Silversea execs have made it very clear there will be no “normal” voyages until at least 2022, even if they restart operations this spring.

[crusinbanjo]

15 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

If by “normal” you mean no mask requirements, or excursions arranged by the guest, then absolutely not.  Silversea execs have made it very clear there will be no “normal” voyages until at least 2022, even if they restart operations this spring.

Didn’t think so.  Thanks for the info all.  The reading in this thread is interesting and informative.  
 

[Randyk47]

23 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 

Very good above comment and follow-up.  Here in the USA, we have not gotten beyond the expected priorities for those in nursing homes and health care workers as being first-in-line.  Being a "seasoned-citizen", we should be in the receiving line earlier than most.  Maybe late January or February or early March??!!  

While I understand and appreciate the hope and desire to get the show rolling as soon as possible I think you’re maybe 60 to 90 days too optimistic.   Despite all the positive press and announcements from Pfizer and Moderna it looks like the manufacture and distribution of at least these two vaccines is going to take longer than initially thought.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/05/health/first-covid-vaccine-shipments-inadequate/index.html  

[dawntrdr]

29 minutes ago, Randyk47 said:

Despite all the positive press and announcements from Pfizer and Moderna it looks like the manufacture and distribution of at least these two vaccines is going to take longer than initially thought.

But we should not assume that there will only ever be just two vaccines available.  The New York Times reports that there are 58 currently in human trials and dozens more in development:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

 

 

 

[Randyk47]

4 minutes ago, dawntrdr said:

But we should not assume that there will only ever be just two vaccines available.  The New York Times reports that there are 58 currently in human trials and dozens more in development:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

 

 

 

Certainly true but we’re talking near term broad availability not eventual.

[Randyk47]

4 minutes ago, docruth said:

So coming down by flying, staying in a hotel, eating in a restaurant, standing in lines at the airports and the seaport, that probably won’t appealing to many cruisers.

 

 

 

Doc Ruth

Absolutely zero appeal for us.  As much as we miss cruising and Silversea it easily could be 2022 before we cruise again.  

[docruth]

2 minutes ago, Randyk47 said:

Absolutely zero appeal for us.  As much as we miss cruising and Silversea it easily could be 2022 before we cruise again.  

 

Very likely, I just really hope that 2022 is not too optimistic!!!

[worldtraveller99]

No it has to be docruth, else everyone will have to buy our own row-boats to travel in, as the cruise lines will have folded. Have started the process to move our July Alaska cruise on again to 2022, will tell you all what happens.

[Randyk47]

2 hours ago, docruth said:

 

Very likely, I just really hope that 2022 is not too optimistic!!!

Probably more correct would be 2022 is the earliest we might cruise.   
 

If I understand Worldtraveller99 correctly I too would wonder about the viability of much of the cruise industry if cruising doesn’t start to bounce back by 2022.   I expect 2021 to be a start but not until later in the year around June or July.    

Edited December 5, 2020 by Randyk47

[Lois R]

Hi, I saw this while reading some news on line..........a list of multiple cruise lines and

dates they would like to resume service..........or is this what everyone was just talking about?

 

When will cruise ships resume sailing? A line-by-line guide (msn.com)

 

 

[Randyk47]

3 hours ago, Lois R said:

Hi, I saw this while reading some news on line..........a list of multiple cruise lines and

dates they would like to resume service..........or is this what everyone was just talking about?

 

When will cruise ships resume sailing? A line-by-line guide (msn.com)

 

 

Even trying to read between the lines so to speak I can’t say this is particularly encouraging.  Speaks to the very long road ahead of us not just for cruising but for life as we knew it.   Personally I want to get back to living and not just staying alive.  

[worldtraveller99]

I am with you Randyk47!  Shall we all update each other as to when we are vaccinated? I guess we will know on the news when the number of people in each area in hospital with COVID goes down.

[cruiseej]

As I alternate between periods of more and less optimism, I'm struck by the number of people who say they won't cruise until cruising is pretty much "normal" again. That's understandable -- but seems increasingly problematic to me.

 

Some of the conversation above is about writing off plans to travel in 2021 and aiming for 2022. But it doesn't seem plausible to me that the cruise lines will be able to survive until 2022 unless they have some significant revenue in the second half of 2021. Remember, back in the spring and summer, we wondered how they'd survive 6 months without revenue, and then watched each cruise line take on billions in new debt. But 2022 is closer to 24 months, and it seems questionable how many cruise lines could remain solvent that long with little revenue.

 

But let's take the optimistic view that some cruising will be possible in the second half of 2021, and the cruise lines are indeed still in business in 2022. It still can't go back to "normal." The cruise lines will have lost many billions of dollars, so something will have to give for them to be starting to recoup some of those losses. I don't know if that will be much higher prices or cutbacks on service, food and amenities, but it seems they'll need to change something to drive more revenue, right? High interest loans need to be paid back, in addition to paying for the new ships completed during the shutdown, on top of the increased costs of getting ships ready to sail, re-hiring, training and moving crews around the world again to get in position, adding expensive testing equipment and materials, etc. It's hard to see how they won't need to hike prices or cut services or both. But I'd love to learn that I'm wrong. 😉

[Stumblefoot]

6 hours ago, cruiseej said:

But 2022 is closer to 24 months...

24-months sounds more like being near to the start of 2023 to me as 2022 is but a mere 12-months and 3-1/2 weeks away from arriving on the scene.

[crusinbanjo]

8 hours ago, cruiseej said:

As I alternate between periods of more and less optimism, I'm struck by the number of people who say they won't cruise until cruising is pretty much "normal" again. That's understandable -- but seems increasingly problematic to me.

 

Some of the conversation above is about writing off plans to travel in 2021 and aiming for 2022. But it doesn't seem plausible to me that the cruise lines will be able to survive until 2022 unless they have some significant revenue in the second half of 2021. Remember, back in the spring and summer, we wondered how they'd survive 6 months without revenue, and then watched each cruise line take on billions in new debt. But 2022 is closer to 24 months, and it seems questionable how many cruise lines could remain solvent that long with little revenue.

 

But let's take the optimistic view that some cruising will be possible in the second half of 2021, and the cruise lines are indeed still in business in 2022. It still can't go back to "normal." The cruise lines will have lost many billions of dollars, so something will have to give for them to be starting to recoup some of those losses. I don't know if that will be much higher prices or cutbacks on service, food and amenities, but it seems they'll need to change something to drive more revenue, right? High interest loans need to be paid back, in addition to paying for the new ships completed during the shutdown, on top of the increased costs of getting ships ready to sail, re-hiring, training and moving crews around the world again to get in position, adding expensive testing equipment and materials, etc. It's hard to see how they won't need to hike prices or cut services or both. But I'd love to learn that I'm wrong. 😉

If the cruise lines can’t begin to bring in serious revenue in 2021, I think you will be hearing more talk of bankruptcies and reorganized businesses.  If they can’t generate revenue, then certainly they will not be able to pay back high interest loans, or anything else.

 

[docruth]

35 minutes ago, crusinbanjo said:

If the cruise lines can’t begin to bring in serious revenue in 2021, I think you will be hearing more talk of bankruptcies and reorganized businesses.  If they ...

 

 

I wish I could recall the source, but somewhere along the line my DH showed me some finance research on the cruise lines that showed Royal, Norwegian, and Carnival shoring up their balance sheets for a potentially very protracted period of scant revenues.

 

The main point .. The projected outcome of the shutdown was that only those three majors, the companies that had deep enough pockets to make it through this timeframe, would be the ones to exist in 2022.

 

Now, I’ve always believed there would be room in the cruise business for smaller operators, those operating in specialized niches, lately I’m just not so sure anymore.

[tgh]

There seems no sense at all for  functionally bankrupt Cruise companies to continue once the end game is clear.

It makes financial and marketing sense to plan for a fast collapse with an orderly rebuild ;  dumping all the debt (including all the cruises prepaid) and starting  as a bright ,new , well funded , can do cruise line ready for the brave new Covid suppressed world.

 

[TLCOhio]

2 hours ago, docruth said:

I wish I could recall the source, but somewhere along the line my DH showed me some finance research on the cruise lines that showed Royal, Norwegian, and Carnival shoring up their balance sheets for a potentially very protracted period of scant revenues.   The main point .. The projected outcome of the shutdown was that only those three majors, the companies that had deep enough pockets to make it through this timeframe, would be the ones to exist in 2022.   Now, I’ve always believed there would be room in the cruise business for smaller operators, those operating in specialized niches, lately I’m just not so sure anymore.

 

Many, many great comments, follow-ups, questions, insights, etc., have been added by our regular "experts" who continue to offer much wise to consider and evaluate.  

 

Per above by Doc Ruth, there is another active thread on this Silversea board that has focused much on the "FINANCES" of Royal Caribbean and the other two major cruise lines.  Clearly as we head into 2021, these questions of "cash burn" and the ability to continue to be able to raise more long-term funds becomes highly important in this "guessing game" .  KEY QUESTION?:  Which travel industry players can survive long enough to make it successfully into 2022 and 2023. 

 

From the former USA Today travel expert, Gene Sloan, his new website location had yesterday this story headline: “Cruise ships that restarted in Europe over the summer are shutting back down” with these highlights: “The comeback of cruising that began over the summer in Europe started to stall in October as coronavirus cases surged. And now it’s in full reversal mode.  Two of the biggest lines to restart limited sailings in Europe in recent months — MSC Cruises and Costa Cruises — this week said they would pause all voyages in the coming days due to growing travel restrictions brought on by higher coronavirus case counts.  MSC Cruises on Friday canceled three departures of the only ship that it currently has operating, MSC Grandiosa, that are scheduled to take place between Dec. 20 and Jan. 10. The 4,842-passenger cruise ship — one of the world’s largest — had resumed sailings on Aug. 16 out of Genoa, Italy, in what at the time was considered a major milestone in the post-COVID comeback of cruising. MSC Cruises was the first major cruise line to restart sailings in the Mediterranean since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.  MSC Cruises on Friday also pushed pushed back plans to bring a second vessel into service in the Mediterranean on Dec. 18. The line now is targeting Jan. 15 for the first COVID-era voyage of the 2,550-passenger ship, MSC Magnifica.”

 

This highly-experienced writer is not a "Negative Nellie" against the cruise industry.  In my view, he's been super solid with his reporting and ability to connect with solid info sources.  Here is more of what he shared: "The cancellations at the two lines come in the wake of new COVID-related travel restrictions in Italy announced on Wednesday. The new restrictions include a complete ban on travel between Italian regions from Dec. 21 through Jan. 6. The Italian government also is forbidding its residents from leaving their home towns on Christmas Day, Dec. 26 and New Year’s Day.  MSC Cruises and Costa are just the latest lines forced to pull back on efforts to revive cruising due to growing travel restrictions.  More than a half dozen other ocean cruise and river cruise lines that had restarted operations in Europe since the summer have had to cancel sailings in recent weeks due to growing travel restrictions in Germany, France and other European countries."

 

Full story at:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/msc-cruises-costa-cancel-europe-trips/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 252,414 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[cruiseej]

12 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

24-months sounds more like being near to the start of 2023 to me as 2022 is but a mere 12-months and 3-1/2 weeks away from arriving on the scene.

 

Just to clarify: I was referring to 24 months from the start of the shutdown: March 2020 to March 2022.

[TLCOhio]

9 hours ago, cruiseej said:

Just to clarify: I was referring to 24 months from the start of the shutdown: March 2020 to March 2022.

 

Appreciate this above clarification and follow-up from our Philadelphia-area neighbor/friend.  It does get confusing as these shut-downs and schedule "adjustments" keep moving and floating.  Clearly, the CDC continues to be very, very "conservative" as to when and how they will allow an "opening up" for such sailing involving U.S. ports.  

 

From the Miami Herald, the major newspaper in the heart of the cruise industry, they had this headline late last week: “Cruises keep getting canceled due to the pandemic. Here’s the latest update” with these highlights: “Cruises in the U.S. remain canceled through 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. As cruise companies work with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to strengthen health and safety protocols in hopes of resuming passenger operations soon, they continue to cancel upcoming cruises. The CDC currently has a Level 4 travel warning in place for cruises — its highest level.  Here are the latest cancellations for each company:

    Carnival Cruise Line sailings remain canceled through Feb. 18, 2021.
    Princess Cruises and Holland America Line canceled all cruises through March 31, 2021, and all cruises longer than seven days from U.S. ports through Nov. 1, 2021.
    Seabourn canceled all cruises eight days and longer that call on a U.S. port through Nov. 1, 2021.
    Costa Cruises canceled all cruises for North American guests through Dec. 18, 2020.
    AIDA Cruises canceled all cruises through Dec. 19, 2020.
    P&O Cruises canceled all cruises until April 2021.
    P&O Cruises Australia canceled all cruises until March 4, 2021.
    Cunard canceled all cruises until March 25, 2021.

Royal Caribbean Group

    Royal Caribbean International canceled most cruises through at least Feb. 28, 2021 with the exception of Spectrum of the Seas cruises in China, which are canceled through Jan. 20, 2021, and Quantum of the Seas cruises in Singapore, which have already resumed.
    Celebrity Cruises canceled all cruises through Feb. 28, 2021.
    Silversea Cruises canceled all cruises through April 1, 2021, with the exception of a Feb. 6, 2021 cruise on Silver Origin.
    Azamara canceled all cruises through March 20, 2021.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article247608345.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 240,865 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[brimary]

This is a great thread for a. Whole host of valid comment and opinion when none of us know the answer.My estimate of the  situation for what worth is a complete guess on the information available today and it is the outcome I would NOT want.

The Worldwide Pandemic will last much longer than the cash flow of the cruise companies producing the outcome none of us on this great board of opinions would want. Hope and pray I am wrong!!

[chrism23]

21 hours ago, docruth said:

Now, I’ve always believed there would be room in the cruise business for smaller operators, those operating in specialized niches, lately I’m just not so sure anymore.

I do not know all the fine points of bankruptcy law which leads to the following questions.  In conventional corporate bankruptcies there are usually assets that are used as collateral.  Example, a real estate developer owns a mall and declares bankruptcy.  The mall, the asset, is then sold at auction and the proceeds applied to the debt.  This is even the same with small home owners who declare personal bankruptcy, the home is sold and the proceeds revert to the debt holder(s).  With a cruise line, their principal assets are there ships.  The cruise line would not have reached bankruptcy if they had liquid assets to meet their financial obligations.  However, and this is where I have trouble understanding, in an industry wide shake out, multiple bankruptcies filled in nearly the same time period by the big cruise lines-RCCI, Carnival, etc. their prime assets, their ships are essentially  worthless, and incurring sizable constant costs by being maintained in dry dock or wherever.  In short, why would any entity buy assets that are rapidly depreciating with extremely high carrying expense.  Now as you point out above, I perhaps could see the big lines selling off boutique smaller lines-Silversea, Seabourne, Regent etc, that have lesser ongoing expenses, in hopes that a corporate entity with deep pockets, might speculate that these smaller niche lines may soon be profitable before the carrying costs become to onerous. And raise capital this way.   But for any corporate entity to step in and buy one of the behemoths-RCCi for example, is beyond my pay grade.  I just don't understand why and how this could happen.  A lot of ifs here but I am essentially clues.  Thanks for any enlightenment.