SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!

[crusinbanjo]

On 12/15/2020 at 3:07 PM, Randyk47 said:

Can’t speak for Vermont and Maine as I’m not familiar with them and in fact the only two states I’ve never been to.  

 

 My son lives on Kauai and they are even stricter than the rest of the state and require the 14 days quarantine regardless of the PRC test results for even visitors from the other islands.  That hasn’t come without economic repercussions as my son says some of the hotels and resorts on Kauai may have already gone under.      

Vermont and Maine are also sparsely populated with only Burlington and Portland being of any significant size.  Also, I live in Mass and if we want to travel to Maine or Vermont there was a quarantine period, or requirement for negative tests.  As with Hawaii, there have also been economic repercussions, Both Maine and Vermont's economies have a heavy dependance on tourism. 

[TLCOhio]

On 12/15/2020 at 3:07 PM, Randyk47 said:

Physically isolation plus a low number of dense population centers certainly have helped.  Oregon and Washington both have high density cities west of the Cascades but the eastern parts of both states are for the most part sparsely populated and relatively wide spread. Hawaii is interesting as they probably were the first to literally, and maybe only state, to close the state to outside visitors when the pandemic started.  Hawaii loosen up a bit but you must have an approved Covid-19 PRC or spend 14 days in a state approved quarantine facility.

 

Appreciate these great comments and follow-ups from Mr. Banjo, Randy and taxatty.  Will try to post here the complete listing for the fifty different states and how they rank on a basis of deaths by 100K population.  Clearly, there are many different factors involved, timing differences as to how each different area was hit and when, etc.  And, there are several important factors to consider and evaluate in addition to the death rates.  AND, death rates are difficult to compared as different countries have varied reporting standards, rules and quality.    

 

From the Washington Post yesterday, they had this headline: “What happened to travel in 2020? What will happen in 2021?” with these highlights from  this writer's column: “It’s difficult to describe 2020 without hyperbole. Stay-at-home orders and quarantines effectively stopped travel. According to a survey by the American Hotel & Lodging Association, 71 percent of hoteliers said they won’t make it another six months without further federal assistance. No one is keeping a tally of airline layoffs, but by most counts, they are in the tens of thousands. And the cruise industry? What cruise industry?  The road ahead is just as unsettling. When will governments distribute vaccines and open their borders? Is it safe to plan a trip for the summer, or should we wait until late 2021 — or later? First, a look back at how travel imploded. It happened so fast, just as spring break was getting underway. The covid-19 pandemic closed cities, states and countries, leaving travelers hunkered down in their homes.  Vaccine passports, travel corridors and, hopefully, the end of covid-19, are in our future. But no one knows when those things will happen. 'If 2020 has been about uncertainty and fear, 2021 will be about regaining confidence,' says Michael Altman, program director and instructor of hospitality and tourism management at Meredith College in Raleigh, N.C. It’s difficult to understate the significance of 2020 and how it will affect next year. A study by Accenture, a multinational professional services company, projects that changing consumer behavior will redistribute more than $3 trillion in spending — including $318 billion from the airline industry if the continued slump in air travel persists.  Another possible change: In 2021, you may have to prove you are healthy enough to travel.”

 

Here was the concluding part in his column: "Mahmood Khan, the professor who directs the Virginia Tech business school’s program in hospitality and tourism management, says the travel recovery will take three years. He says the industry will spend 2021 assessing the damage and 2022 planning for recovery. 'And if things work well,' he predicts, '2023 is when a new travel horizon will appear, as long as the economy moves in the right direction.' "

 

Full stories at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/travel/looking-back-at-2020-travel/2020/12/16/7d978784-3576-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 252,610 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[Randyk47]

52 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

 

Appreciate these great comments and follow-ups from Mr. Banjo, Randy and taxatty.  Will try to post here the complete listing for the fifty different states and how they rank on a basis of deaths by 100K population.  Clearly, there are many different factors involved, timing differences as to how each different area was hit and when, etc.  And, there are several important factors to consider and evaluate in addition to the death rates.  AND, death rates are difficult to compared as different countries have varied reporting standards, rules and quality.    

 

From the Washington Post yesterday, they had this headline: “What happened to travel in 2020? What will happen in 2021?” with these highlights from  this writer's column: “It’s difficult to describe 2020 without hyperbole. Stay-at-home orders and quarantines effectively stopped travel. According to a survey by the American Hotel & Lodging Association, 71 percent of hoteliers said they won’t make it another six months without further federal assistance. No one is keeping a tally of airline layoffs, but by most counts, they are in the tens of thousands. And the cruise industry? What cruise industry?  The road ahead is just as unsettling. When will governments distribute vaccines and open their borders? Is it safe to plan a trip for the summer, or should we wait until late 2021 — or later? First, a look back at how travel imploded. It happened so fast, just as spring break was getting underway. The covid-19 pandemic closed cities, states and countries, leaving travelers hunkered down in their homes.  Vaccine passports, travel corridors and, hopefully, the end of covid-19, are in our future. But no one knows when those things will happen. 'If 2020 has been about uncertainty and fear, 2021 will be about regaining confidence,' says Michael Altman, program director and instructor of hospitality and tourism management at Meredith College in Raleigh, N.C. It’s difficult to understate the significance of 2020 and how it will affect next year. A study by Accenture, a multinational professional services company, projects that changing consumer behavior will redistribute more than $3 trillion in spending — including $318 billion from the airline industry if the continued slump in air travel persists.  Another possible change: In 2021, you may have to prove you are healthy enough to travel.”

 

Here was the concluding part in his column: "Mahmood Khan, the professor who directs the Virginia Tech business school’s program in hospitality and tourism management, says the travel recovery will take three years. He says the industry will spend 2021 assessing the damage and 2022 planning for recovery. 'And if things work well,' he predicts, '2023 is when a new travel horizon will appear, as long as the economy moves in the right direction.' "

 

Full stories at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/travel/looking-back-at-2020-travel/2020/12/16/7d978784-3576-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 252,610 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

Wow!  Powerful post with eye opening information.  Even the my slightly pessimistic self is a bit shocked.   Of course these are opinions and only time will tell how accurate they are.   Doesn’t help I just finished reading the following article on the vaccines and what they mean at least in the short run.    https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-vaccine-not-a-silver-bullet-warns-who

Edited December 17, 2020 by Randyk47

[TLCOhio]

1 hour ago, Randyk47 said:

Wow!  Powerful post with eye opening information.  Even the my slightly pessimistic self is a bit shocked.   Of course these are opinions and only time will tell how accurate they are. 

 

Agree with Randy that there are still many good questions and unknowns related to the vaccines.  Overall, it is still "GOOD NEWS"!!  The second vaccine passed a key test today and should get its final OK tomorrow.  We're ready to do the vaccine, but need to wait our turn as we are not in the highest-priority categories.  Then, this entire process will need time and added testing to confirm how long the vaccines will remain effective, etc.  

 

From the Washington Post today, they had this headline: “Vaccine news has led to a spike in travel bookings for 2021 and beyond" with this sub-headline: "Planning a trip for next year? You’re not alone.”

 

Here are some the story highlights: “A dozen travel companies and organizations — encompassing cruise lines, tour operators, travel agents and resorts — told The Washington Post that they are seeing bookings pick up for the second half of next year after a brutal stretch that brought the world to a standstill.  'With the most challenging environment comes the biggest opportunity for a return,' said Brad Tolkin, co-chairman and CEO of World Travel Holdings, a travel company that sells cruise, villa and resort vacations. 'And I think it’s going to be thunderous.'  At his own company, bookings are 'heavily skewed' toward the second half of next year and into 2022.  'We are taking an unprecedented amount of business now for 2022 relative to how much we took last year for 2020, pre-pandemic,' Tolkin said. 'It’s just amazing how far in advance people are booking.' Virtuoso, a travel agency network, is seeing the most bookings for September and October of next year, with increases especially pronounced for international trips.”

 

Here is more interesting background:  "Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said the vaccine could be available even to low-priority groups by April.  However, experts warn that even widespread vaccinations will not suddenly make travel return to pre-pandemic times.  Gigi Gronvall, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said the rollout will be complicated. Authorities will also have to combat misinformation and disinformation, and it’s still not known if asymptomatic people can transmit the virus after getting the vaccine."

 

Full story at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/12/17/vacation-planning-2021-covid-vaccine/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 241,017 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[tosteve1]

Just got my COVID vaccine first dose scheduled for Saturday. Very thankful to be in a priority group. And very excited to think that travel will be possible soon...maybe?

[Lois R]

2 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

Just got my COVID vaccine first dose scheduled for Saturday. Very thankful to be in a priority group. And very excited to think that travel will be possible soon...maybe?

WOW...you are getting a shot this weekend? Are you in the essential group? Hope all 

goes well!  As for travel? I doubt it.  I was wanting to travel next month to the inauguration 

with 3 friends but that is off the table now........the cases are spreading like wild fires!

[cruiseej]

3 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

Just got my COVID vaccine first dose scheduled for Saturday. Very thankful to be in a priority group. And very excited to think that travel will be possible soon...maybe?

 

Congratulations on being one of the first to get the vaccine! But for travel, you'll need to wait for much of the world to catch up before it becomes possible. Cruise lines will need to assemble their crews from around the world and get them vaccinated when it becomes possible for younger people to get it. And countries where you wish to travel will need to get large numbers of their population vaccinated. The rich countries of the world may get there by summer, but parts of the world will take much longer -- perhaps well into 2022. (Here's a good read in the New York Times about worldwide availability of vaccines.)

 

We're booked on a cruise to Antarctica next December. I feel relatively confident we'll be able to be vaccinated by mid-year. But will cruise lines be able to staff up and travel to ports around South America by then? It's just too soon to know. 

[dawntrdr]

Just noticed that this has been added to the "Cruise with Confidence Policy" on the  SS website in an update dated December 15:

 

COVID-19 PROTECTIONS

Should a guest or a member of their travelling party test positive within 30 days prior to the cruise, at the boarding terminal or during the cruise, the guest will receive 100% Future Cruise Credit or 100% refund for the total booking amount.

[Stumblefoot]

1 hour ago, dawntrdr said:

COVID-19 PROTECTIONS

Should a guest or a member of their travelling party test positive within 30 days prior to the cruise, at the boarding terminal or during the cruise, the guest will receive 100% Future Cruise Credit or 100% refund for the total booking amount.

 

And, I believe this only applies to bookings through 2021.

[tosteve1]

Agree that travel is a way off yet, but I’m hoping that in seeing that the process is beginning we can all be more hopeful!

[twangster]

Interesting independent research NOT commissioned by the cruise line.

 

Research firm forecasts Royal Caribbean's gradual cruise ship restart plan

 

This isn't specific to SS but it does look at the Royal Caribbean Group as a whole and includes new build forecasts for SS in a graphic included in the post.

 

• The research firm concluded that across the Royal Caribbean Group brands, 44% of the fleet will be operating by December 2021 for an average of 20% sailing for the full year.
• They also think 100% of the fleet will be in operation by mid-2022 and will finish fiscal year 2022 with 84% capacity.

 

[rucrazy]

On 12/17/2020 at 9:45 PM, Lois R said:

WOW...you are getting a shot this weekend? Are you in the essential group? Hope all 

goes well!  As for travel? I doubt it.  I was wanting to travel next month to the inauguration 

with 3 friends but that is off the table now........the cases are spreading like wild fires!

Lois my information has it that the inauguration for the most part much like the convention will be virtual..i.e no parade... all to reduce the chance of a super spreader event!

 

Joseph

Edited December 19, 2020 by rucrazy
additional information

[Lois R]

2 hours ago, rucrazy said:

Lois my information has it that the inauguration for the most part much like the convention will be virtual..i.e no parade... all to reduce the chance of a super spreader event!

 

Joseph

Hi Joseph, I know.......that is why we decided not to attend.  Too much spread of the virus and

they changed the entire format. 2 of my friends have been to previous Inaugurations before

but I have never been able to attend one.  Oh well. 2020.

[Randyk47]

 I should stop reading the news.   Been on a little bit of a positive upswing mood  with the initial release of the now two Covid vaccines and then I see this article:   https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/19/uk/christmas-covid-strain-restrictions-intl-gbr/index.html  Still too early to know exactly what this means but hard to see it as a positive.    

[tosteve1]

Got the Pfizer vaccine today...no issues, very good experience.

[Lois R]

1 hour ago, tosteve1 said:

Got the Pfizer vaccine today...no issues, very good experience.

Go to know! Glad it went well.🙂

[iMarco46]

Travel to/from UK now severely restricted.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/british-coronavirus-strain-investigating-1.5849235

[worldtraveller99]

Hopefully the vaccine will still work - continues to be rolled out, my mother-in-law has now had it.

 

Is it also free for everyone in the USA?

[worldtraveller99]

I think the point is that our scientists have identified the new strain and maybe other countries have not, but may still have it anyway - eg Germany now has 800 people dead a day. The real shame is that all the roads in Kent are now car parks full of starving lorry drivers - and don't mention the lack of toilets, plus the shops may run out of some food? Am aiming to shop on Wednesday, so wish me luck!x

 

So it's tinned fruit for Christmas! We shall manage, and things will get better.

 

[TLCOhio]

1 hour ago, worldtraveller99 said:

I think the point is that our scientists have identified the new strain and maybe other countries have not, but may still have it anyway - eg Germany now has 800 people dead a day. The real shame is that all the roads in Kent are now car parks full of starving lorry drivers - and don't mention the lack of toilets, plus the shops may run out of some food? Am aiming to shop on Wednesday, so wish me luck!x.  So it's tinned fruit for Christmas! We shall manage, and things will get better.

 

Great comment and follow-up above from our UK friend. Good and optimistic that we will manage and that things will get better.  But, WHEN and HOW are still the key questions??!!  

 

From Conde Nast Traveler magazine this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise Ship Doctors Will Have a Tougher Job Than Ever Once Sailings Resume"  with this sub-headline: "Six ways the job will become more complicated for on-board medical providers.”

 

Here are more of their story highlights: “Cruise lines have always staffed medical crews who are held to high standards: American College of Emergency Physician guidelines require onboard staff to be on-call 24/7; physicians must have a minimum of three years of post-graduate experience in general and emergency medicine, or be board-certified in emergency, family, or internal medicine; all staff must be certified in advanced life support.  But today, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the job of being a doctor or nurse at sea calls for more.  'The difference between then and now is not necessarily in the foundational level of medical training, expertise, credentials, or capabilities that our providers have, but rather in an increased focus around recognizing and initiating treatment for potential SARS CoV-2 infections,' says Calvin Johnson, M.D., chief medical officer for Royal Caribbean Group.  There are already big changes in the ways that doctors and nurses on cruise ships do their jobs. In a pre-pandemic world, medical professionals tended to focus on you (the one sick person). In the present environment, they'll take into account who you’ve been exposed to—or who you could be exposed to. And that’s a bit more complex.  One of the biggest changes to the physical space of a ship’s medical facility is that there's no more common waiting room. Instead, you'll likely find two separate spaces: a control care area (for those with potentially infectious diseases) and another area for non-infectious patients. The pandemic has forced medical staff to re-evaluate what equipment there might be an extra need for, such as personal protective equipment (PPE).”

 

Full story at:

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/cruise-ship-doctors-will-have-a-tougher-job-than-ever-once-cruising-restarts

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 89,343 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[kimanjo]

I think some of you are not seeing the big/bigger picture of "essential".  The factory worker isn't just at a Ford factory, they're at a glass factory making bottles for vaccines.  Or a machine shop that makes a part for a tool that keeps the supply chain of the medicine YOU need going.

 

Yes, they might be younger and healthier, BUT, if the virus gets a hold in one of these factories and a good chunk of the workers, while not deathly ill, are still quarantining and there might be a slowdown of production.

 

And how do you think the products, both vaccine and other medicines ( that you need) get from point A to point B ?? Yup a pilot, and as young as he is, and as low risk to serious consequences, once again, taking them out of circulation to quarantine reduces the # of them.  Or the aircraft mechanic that keeps the essential planes flying the essential medications YOU need. Try flying a plane via Zoom or in your pajamas at home.

 

So, if it's only about who is the most likely to suffer severe consequences and/or death, why are we vaccinating a 35 year old doctor or nurse?  It's because we need them to be at work ( just like a 35 year old meat processor, or lettuce picker, or pilot). They are all essential  keeping you alive.

 

I'm 58.  I'll be one of the very  last groups.  I can wait because I stay home, wear a mask, don't dine out or go to bars, I do grocery pick-up.  All of this because there are millions of essential workers keeping my fridge stocked and my electricity on.  It's the least I can do because I can.

Edited December 22, 2020 by kimanjo

[kimanjo]

And yes, I do know the vaccine does not stop you from being infected, it's efficacy is in the severity of the virus if you do catch it. So, if you are 35, and get infected, you might not have a high risk of death, but you can surely be sick for 2-3-4 weeks ( and out of work). And be less symptomatic if you do catch it, therefore possibly shedding less virus. And tha'ts important if you go to work, as opposed to a 69 year old retiree who can stay home. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by kimanjo

[silkismom]

And then, what really turns my screws, AOC was (I read) one of the first, neither age or essential in any form. Off my speakers box.

[worldtraveller99]

Maybe all of the Congress and Senate were vaccinated? Or she did it as an example to the doubters?

[Lois R]

2 hours ago, worldtraveller99 said:

Maybe all of the Congress and Senate were vaccinated? Or she did it as an example to the doubters?

Nope, all of them have not been vaccinated.  A few of them, yes, all of them? Nope.