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SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!


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1 minute ago, Randyk47 said:

potential of a safe and available vaccine or vaccines is brighter

Some hopefully brighter news is that the Moderna vaccine 'supposedly' can be stored in a home type freezer and actually sit out at room temp for ten hours. Whereas the Pfizer one has to be kept at close to -100F the entire time. If true that could make a huge difference.

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9 minutes ago, clo said:

Some hopefully brighter news is that the Moderna vaccine 'supposedly' can be stored in a home type freezer and actually sit out at room temp for ten hours. Whereas the Pfizer one has to be kept at close to -100F the entire time. If true that could make a huge difference.


Indeed.  At the very least it would make it easier to transport.  Assuming it is a safe and efficient vaccine then the ability to move it quickly around the world could be paramount to getting this pandemic under control.    

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5 hours ago, jpalbny said:

Yes, it has not been peer-reviewed. That doesn't bother me in the least. It is an interim analysis which is ideally carried out by an independent review board (it was) and occurs after a sufficient number of outcomes occur (true here) so that there is a reasonable chance of enough "power" to detect whether or not it works. 

 

It was not based on a week of data, as far as I know. It was based on cases "from 7 days after the second vaccine" which I interpret as them only counting cases which occured 7 or more days after the second dose. 

 

Thanks JP!  Your professional POV makes me feel A LOT better about the interim results and excited about what they may portend.  

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2 minutes ago, Randyk47 said:


Indeed.  At the very least it would make it easier to transport.  Assuming it is a safe and efficient vaccine then the ability to move it quickly around the world could be paramount to getting this pandemic under control.    

That super cold requirement and how it would work seems to be pretty ignored so this was indeed good.

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A Moderna rep was interviewed last night on one of the news shows, I believe it was the PBS Newshour.

 

He quoted the following storage specs for their vaccine: long-term (months/years) storage @ -20°C; 20 hours in the thermos after removal from the long term storage or transport vessel @ 0°C; and 12 hours on the bench @ room temp just prior to delivery. Those numbers came from one of the senior scientists working the development and testing effort with Moderna. Pretty interesting, huh?

 

Additionally, the scientist did confirm that limited early human trials demonstrated an effectiveness of 94.5%. He did not discusses the testing or side effects.

 

John Yang, a PBS correspondent, has taken the two dose version (not sure which one) and discussed his experience. He will find out whether he was in the control group, or got the actual vaccine, and learn his actual immune status in his follow-up visit today.

 

One technical point made, one that didn’t generate much discussion, but really stuck with me. To paraphrase, “We haven’t tried to do this kind of pharmaceutical development for a human therapeutic before, not on this kind of compressed schedule or at this volume, ever. This is a first”.

 

Cheers,

 

Doc Ruth

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On 11/17/2020 at 12:23 PM, Stumblefoot said:

Thanks JP!  Your professional POV makes me feel A LOT better about the interim results and excited about what they may portend.  

 

Appreciate from J.P. and others for ALL of these great comments and detailed follow-ups.  More good news this morning about vaccines, etc.  There is "LIGHT" at the end of the tunnel and positive "fixes" are getting closer.  But, they are not here, yet.  WHEN and HOW are still major aspects to be determined.  Right?  Or, wrong?

 

From MSN News and CNN earlier this week, the cable news network, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean mock cruises attract 'thousands' of volunteers” with these highlights: “Major cruise line Royal Caribbean is currently looking into arranging trial cruise voyages to convince regulators it can run successful Covid-era trips.  And it says it's been inundated with interest from would-be cruisers keen to volunteer.  Michael Bayley, president & CEO of Royal Caribbean, said in a Facebook post on Sunday that 100,000 people had signed up.  If getting on a cruise ship sounds like a precarious proposition, that's because it is. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which recently lifted its ban on cruise ships operating in US waters, says in its latest guidance that 'sailing during a pandemic is an inherently risky activity.'  But the CDC's framework for conditional sailing also stipulates cruise lines must run 'simulated voyages' designed 'to replicate real world onboard conditions of cruising' if they want to get permission to recommence regularly scheduled cruises.”

 

Here is more from this story and about these efforts planned by the cruise lines: "It's not clear whether volunteers for mock cruises will be paid, travel for free or have to contribute toward costs.  Spokesman Fishman said Royal Caribbean still has 'a lot of details to work out to make sure everyone's experience onboard is as safe and as enjoyable as we can make it,' adding that there were 'no dates to announce yet.'    Before cruise lines can get started on simulated voyage plans, they must confirm they've met the CDC's requirements for protecting crew members on board ships, namely that they'll be regularly tested.  The CDC framework also requires simulated cruise voyages to meet a series of requirements -- including that passengers are informed in writing 'that they are participating in a simulation of unproven and untested health and safety protocols' and, as mentioned earlier, 'that sailing during a pandemic is an inherently risky activity.'  Volunteer passengers are also required to be at least 18 years old, and they must confirm they don't have any pre-existing medical conditions that could make them more susceptible to coronavirus."

 

Anyone interested in doing such a "test" cruise?  Will it be a sailing to nowhere?  What risks will be involved for getting there via airports/airlines, plus in doing such a cruise?

 

AND, this new activity still has not been detailed and precisely defined by CDC.  What are the rules and standards to gain ultimate CDC approval and establish consumer confidence?

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/royal-caribbean-mock-cruises-attract-thousands-of-volunteers/ar-BB1aWUcW?fbclid=IwAR12ix-CuxdwfhMc-s41QQTX7jg34sTHTk9K08kWd65t3zvhnoG5xw2YOcc

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 240,865 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

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From MSN News and super experienced travel expert Gene Sloan this morning, here is this headline/viewoint: “What we learned from the SeaDream outbreak: America isn’t ready for cruising to resume with these highlights: “It’s going to be tough for cruise lines to resume sailings in North America anytime soon.  That, in a nutshell, is the takeaway from last week’s COVID outbreak on the very first Caribbean cruise since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.  That’s how I see it, at least, and I’ve been following the cruise world for a long time.  As the incident on a small SeaDream Yacht Club vessel showed, no amount of pre-cruise COVID testing for passengers is guaranteed to keep the illness off ships.  But that’s not the reason I think it’s going to be tough for cruise lines to resume sailings in North America soon. There’s a bigger reason why a wholesale reboot of the cruising industry here may not be imminent: Americans just aren’t ready for it.  Americans were outraged that cruise lines even were thinking about bringing back cruising in this part of the world in the midst of a major pandemic. Every major media outlet was quick to jump on the story, with reports that were dripping with incredulity.”

 

Here is more from this seasoned industry pro who reported for decades with USA Today: "What the reaction to last week’s SeaDream sailing showed was that the American public and the media won’t be so indifferent to a restart of cruising in their own backyard.  It also sent a clear message that they don’t like the idea, and they’re going to speak up.  In North America, the memories of what happened earlier this year on cruise ships sailing out of U.S. waters are still too raw.  In fairness to the cruise lines, they have worked hard for months to come up with a plan for restarting operations during this COVID era that will ensure that the illness doesn’t run rampant on their ships. But that may not be enough to placate Americans still scarred by what they saw happen earlier this year.  In restarting cruising in the Caribbean last week, SeaDream had implemented many of the same anti-COVID procedures that other lines plan to implement as part of their restarts. There was one big thing SeaDream didn’t do. It didn’t initially require passengers and crew on SeaDream 1 to wear masks (it changed this policy two days into the trip after being heavily criticized for it). But even mask-wearing from the very beginning of the voyage wouldn’t have stopped COVID from getting onboard. The incident was a reminder that — no matter how extensive anti-COVID measures are — COVID will find a way to get on ships.  Any cruise line that tries to return to cruising in North America in the coming months is going to run into the same sort of buzzsaw of scepticism, criticism and ridicule that we saw last week — particularly after a COVID case or two inevitably works its way onto their ships.  As it stands now, a road map for a return to cruising that the CDC issued nearly three weeks ago suggests it’s unlikely the agency will clear cruise lines to restart cruising out of U.S. ports before March or even April."

 

Agree or disagree?  Fair or unfair?

 

Full story at:

https://thepointsguy.co.uk/news/seadream-cruise-ship-outbreak-fallout/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 231,463 views.

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From the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, they had this headline for this news release from this part of the Carnival cruise empire: “Princess Cruises Extends Pause of Global Ship Operations into 2021 ” with these highlights: “ In response to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) "Framework for Conditional Sailing Order", Princess Cruises is extending its pause in global operations to allow time for the estimated preparation needed for completing required activities prior to sailing and taking into consideration the temporary seven-day cap on itineraries that call at a U.S. port. The cruise operations impacted include the following:   -- All cruises sailing through March 31, 2021.  -- All cruises longer than seven days sailing in and out of United States  ports through November 1, 2021.  Additionally, due to the uncertainty about when international travel restrictions might be lifted, Princess Cruises is extending its pause in operations for cruises departing in and out of Japan through June 25, 2021.

 

Full press release at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/princess-cruises-extends-pause-of-global-ship-operations-into-2021-01605877861?tesla=y

or:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/princess-cruises-extends-pause-of-global-ship-operations-into-2021-301177874.html 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 89,162 views.

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From the Miami Herald in the heart of the cruise industry headquarters this morning, they had this headline: “Three Carnival Corp. cruise lines will cancel sailings until 2021” with these highlights: “Three Carnival Corp. cruise lines will extend their sailing cancellations until 2021, as the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States surges out of control, with more than 185,000 U.S. cases reported Friday.  On Friday, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises and Seabourn all said their voyages will be canceled until 2021. Holland America Line and Princess Cruises will extend their pauses for all departures through March 31, 2021.  Both cruise lines will also cancel certain voyages. Seabourn announced it will cancel a series of 2021 voyages for two of its ships. Holland America Line cruises of eight days or more that stop at a U.S. port through Nov. 1, 2021, will be canceled along with select longer voyages in Asia, Australia/New Zealand and South America through mid-April 2021.  For Princess Cruises, all cruises longer than seven days sailing in and out of U.S. ports through Nov. 1, 2021, will be canceled. Additionally, the cruise line will extend its pause for cruises departing in and out of Japan through June 25, 2021. Seabourn Odyssey will cancel voyages from Jan. 16, 2021, to Nov. 5, 2021. Seabourn Quest voyages longer than seven days and stopping at a U.S. port are canceled from July 22, 2021, to Nov. 6, 2021.   The CDC’s 40-page conditional sail order issued Oct. 30 requires a phased approach to restarting cruises. Companies must first demonstrate they can successfully protect crew members from COVID-19, then conduct simulated cruises with volunteer passengers, then obtain a 'Conditional Sailing Certificate' from the CDC.”

 

Also of interest from this major newspaper on Nov. 6 might be this article with the headline of: "Cruise companies hope for dialogue with Key West after voters ban big ships" and these story highlights: "More than 60% of Key West voters sent a message to the cruise industry on election day: keep your big ships away from our city.  The three measures limit the size and type of cruise ships that can dock and the number of passengers who can disembark. The new rules face legal challenges. In the meantime, hard-hit cruise companies are planning to visit Key West as soon as COVID-19 restrictions allow — and hoping to work out compromises.  'We are still assessing,' said Bari Golin-Blaugrund, spokesperson for industry lobbying group Cruise Lines International Association, in an email. 'For now what I can tell you is the cruise industry places incredible importance on being a strong partner in the communities where we visit, and we believe open dialogue and communication is a critical part of that. We hope to have that opportunity in Key West.'  Voters rarely have a direct say in how their cities do business with cruise companies; dockage fees and schedules are negotiated directly between the companies and the port authorities. But after cruise ships became COVID-19 hot spots in the spring, a group of Keys residents launched a campaign to reduce cruise traffic to the city in three ways by limiting the number of daily cruise ship visitors to 1,500 (passed with 63% of the vote), banning cruise ships with 1,300 passengers and crew or more (passed with 61% of the vote), and giving docking priority to cruise ships that have the best health and environmental records (passed with 81% of the vote)." 

 

Full Miami Herald stories at:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article247330619.html

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article246985347.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 67,679 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

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3 hours ago, QueSeraSera said:

Lots of food for thought there Chrism.  This is going to take some real leadership.

 

In regard to cruising, theoretically, loads will be "light" for a while. If using the who gets in line 1st, all I've read is first responders go 1st ( medical and hospital), then nursing homes/long term care facilitiy residents and then prisons and jails. Then come the 65 and over.

 

So, think about this list.  1/2 of those ( institutionalized) will not be cruising. Then you get to the 65 and over. What about the couple who one is 66 and one is 63??   And the ones who are 68and 70, who both can get the vaccine,  and cruise as extended families.  Adults and children will not be part of the vaccine group for quite a while. Will they still cruise without the family?  This is a pretty small list of potential pax, for mass market lines for sure. And even for the luxury market. And expedition(s). Sure there are active 68 year olds, but there are also a lot of under 65's who go on expedition cruises.

 

As for immunity passport.  I am of the belief that many countries around the world who want tourists back desperately, will require it.  What real choice do they have?  They need the infusion of money.  They can't afford to hospitalize tourists and citizens who bring in and spread the virus. Will the United States, I doubt it. And if not, the US has to hope that more than 57% will take the vaccine to try and get somewhere close to herd immunity.

My 2 cents.

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I think the point is that if everyone who could end up in hospital is vaccinated then people like your wife (and my husband) Chrism may not need to be vaccinated at all. The virus could end up just being like having a cold for them, and hopefully cruising and all travel could resume?

 

So please don't offer to pay $25,000 for her to be vaccinated! Luckily there are hopefully not many 40 year old hedge fund managers to push the price up - well not in the UK anyway.

 

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1 hour ago, docruth said:

USA Today put this out today ... not good news.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/11/22/cdc-advises-against-cruise-travel-all-people-should-avoid-worldwide/6382599002/

A long slog forward indeed ... Doc Ruth

 

Appreciate ALL of the various very good comments and follow-ups. This includes above from Doc Ruth, plus the details from chrism23 about vaccines, plus JollyJones, WesW, worldtraveller99, kimanjo, QueSeraSera, Daveywavey70, etc.  It's a time for "REALISM" and it seems that Silversea is not now trying to push things too much, too fast.  That's smart!!  It's going to take time!!

 

From US News magazine/website this morning, they had this headline: “First Americans Could Get COVID-19 Vaccine by December 11, Top Health Official Says” with these highlights: “Americans could receive a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as Dec. 11, the chief scientific adviser for the U.S. government's vaccine program said on Sunday.  'Within 24 hours from the approval, the vaccine will be moving and located in the areas where each state will have told us where they want the vaccine doses,' Dr. Moncef Slaoui, part of the 'Operation Warp Speed' vaccine program, told NBC's 'Meet the Press.'  The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's outside advisers will meet on Dec. 10 to discuss whether to authorize the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc and German partner BioNTech for emergency use.  The vaccine, which requires two doses administered about three weeks apart, has been shown to be 95% effective with no major safety concerns. Pfizer expects to have enough doses to protect 25 million people by the end of the year.  The vaccine will be distributed based on each state's population, Slaoui said. Each state will decide who gets the vaccine first with the recommendation that priority be given to health care workers, front-line workers and the elderly who face the highest risks of dying from the virus.  About 70% of the population needs to be immunized to achieve herd immunity, a goal the country could reach by May, he said.  The United States faces the challenge of distributing vaccines to more than 330 million Americans while also combating misinformation about vaccines spread on social media.”

 

A December vaccine starting date initially sounds encouraging, but there are many, many if's and if's.  Several of the vaccines requires two shots and then a period of time before the protection is actually up to "speed" and effective.  If 25 million people in the U.S. get these shots by mid January, then only 7.5% of the population will have been given this treatment.  Then, you need another 206 million people here receiving the shots to complete the program in order to be up a 70% level for being vaccinated in this country.  That takes more time!!  Then, there are the questions as to how quickly and effectively people from other countries are able to get the vaccines, how the crew will be covered, people in countries to be visited, etc. etc.  Many questions!!  Progress is happening, but I am not planning for any serious, international travel before the Summer of 2021.  And, that might be optimistic.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-11-22/first-americans-could-get-covid-19-vaccine-by-december-11-top-health-official-says

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 50,482 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

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All of us who are eager travel again want to parse the if's and when's to figure out when we will be able to travel, and the key thing to realize is that we don't know, and probably won't for awhile longer. Will the drug rollout start off okay? Will there be delays in manufacturing or delivery? How will availability be allocated once the most obvious critical-need people get the first wave? How will the need to share vaccines worldwide impact availability in our countries? Will there be any setbacks in effectiveness, or the as-yet unknown duration of immunity? How will the arrival of vaccines other than the first two affect things, especially if the efficacy of some vaccines is lower than others? Will these vaccines be safe and work for those who are immunocompromised? These and many other questions await, and you could drive yourself crazy right now trying to figure it all out. So… don't! 😉

 

Keep reading, stay informed, deal with the immediate urgency of rising cases in the places many of us live, and simply accept that while there's cause for hope, we're not right around the corner for travel and normalcy yet. Give things time to develop. Ignore cruise line enticements to book with deadlines this year. Don't speculate about whether a 'vaccine passport' will or won't be a thing. And maybe… hopefully… in about two months, we'll be able to get a better sense of the timing for how this is all going to play out -- in general, and for the future of cruising. 

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5 hours ago, cruiseej said:

All of us who are eager travel again want to parse the if's and when's to figure out when we will be able to travel, and the key thing to realize is that we don't know, and probably won't for awhile longer. Keep reading, stay informed, deal with the immediate urgency of rising cases in the places many of us live, and simply accept that while there's cause for hope, we're not right around the corner for travel and normalcy yet. Give things time to develop. Ignore cruise line enticements to book with deadlines this year. 

 

Very good above summary comments and follow-up from our friend in the suburbs north of Philadelphia.  Yes, patience is required, especially as the infection numbers ramp up, UP as we are now just starting this holiday period.  It could get worse?  

 

Agree, as per kimanjo's posting earlier that some type of "IMMUNITY PASSPORT" might be a required "tool" for the future of international travel. See below in this breaking news story.   

 

From the News newspapers in Australia today, they had this headline: “Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says proof of COVID-19 vaccination will be a condition of international air travel” with these story highlights: “Proof of COVID-19 vaccination will be a non-negotiable condition of international air travel, according to the Qantas CEO Alan Joyce. Anti-vaxxers will be grounded in the brave new world, with Mr Joyce confirming vaccination will be a requirement to fly internationally. Mr Joyce has repeatedly warned that international air travel won’t resume until there’s a vaccine available for staff and travellers, but on Monday night he went a step further, telling A Current Affair host Tracy Grimshaw that as soon as a vaccine becomes available it will be a condition of travel.  'For international travellers, we will ask people to have a vaccination before they get on the aircraft,’' he said.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/qantas-ceo-alan-joyce-says-proof-of-covid19-vaccination-will-be-a-condition-of-international-air-travel/news-story/410d37274bcdbd7adf60db6ca4112a8d

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 47,990 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

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1 hour ago, worldtraveller99 said:

But what if they don't ever get round to vaccinating the under 60s?


I’ve seen no plan that says they won’t vaccinate under 60 year olds.   I’ve seen plans that maybe puts them in the last group to get vaccinated assuming they are not front line providers, have no other medical issues, etc.  A reason I could see for not getting to the final group is that the virus itself virtually disappears which doesn’t seem likely but it is possible.    I don’t think any government would withhold vaccinations to their population once the vaccine or vaccines become readily available.    

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1 hour ago, worldtraveller99 said:

But what if they don't ever get round to vaccinating the under 60s?

 

I agree w Randy. Unlikely.

 

It may take a while given that this demographic is at lower risk for severe outcomes, so the principles of public health would say that they wait at the end of the line because they are the least likely to get severely ill and overburden the hospitals. BUT - you're not going to achieve herd immunity w/o vaccinating most of this demographic. If the virus is still circulating like mad in the young, then the elderly and chronically ill will not be as well-protected, even if they are vaccinated.

 

Think about it. If you're vaccinated with a vaccine that protects you from getting sick 20 times more effectively than no vaccine, you still don't want to get exposed 100 times a day. If there is a large reservoir of virus circulating around in the unvaccinated young, who are minimally symptomatic or even asymptomatic, that is what will happen. However, once all of the young and healthy are vaccinated, then the reservoir becomes much smaller. So you're exposed much less often and you're less likely to get sick.

 

I'm under 60, but an ICU doc. So I'm sure that our employee health staff will be chasing me with a needle as soon as they get the first shipment off of dry ice! I just hope they let it melt before they stab me with it...

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Another factor to think about is the ability of cruise lines to get their crews 100% vaccinated. Consider that most of the crew members aren't in the older age demographic, and so won't be at the head of the line for vaccines. Will there be special carve-outs of large quantities of vaccines for hospitality and entertainment workers?

 

And then, there's the issue of how much trouble cruise lines will have assembling a full and well-trained staff. Some cruise line employees have decided to move on to other forms of work. Some are still recovering from their ordeal returning home after being stranded for many months at sea. Some will have gone a year or more without pay before their cruise lines seek to recall them at some unknown point sometime in 2021. The Miami Herald had a good article last week on the challenges ahead. "Maybe I'll come back as a passenger, but not as crew," said one who documented his five and a half month odyssey to get home. "“I’m doing all the best to find any opening position in my country to not return back,” said another, an engineer.


Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article246754091.html#storylink=cpy

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