50% capacity ...again. When ? Who’s in ? Who’s out?

[Travelling2Some]

The  basic problem is being asked to make final payment without knowing what, if anything, we are buying.  What if you pay in full and then, after the fact,  encounter new rules and regulations you did not care to sign on for?  Will you then be eligible for a cash refund or must to go on a cruise you will not enjoy or lose your money?  That's the bottom line for consumers regardless of who is at fault.

[BirdTravels]

4 hours ago, bouhunter said:

 

 

Keep in mind the avid cruisers here who are ready to jump on a ship ASAP aren't representative of the average cruise customer.  Many will choose not to go in the coming months for various reasons:

 

1.  Fear of the virus.  On ships, planes, etc etc.

2.  Fear of a positive test cancelling mid-cruise, and/or being locked up on a quarantined prison ship

3.  Personal covid related financial difficulties preventing travel

4.  Choosing not to cruise with masks and a myriad of other onboard restrictions

 

Factors such as this may well reduce occupancy 50% (or whatever the goal is) without the cruise line having to cancel anyone.

 

 

Hmmmm

 

The average cruiser took the FCC (50%) committing to cruise in the next year. So, while your list of reasons may be valid for you personally, they are not shared by the average cruiser. And, last report, the loads for 2021 were similar to pre-suspension loads, so the unsubstantiated assertion that the ships are less than 50% full also has no basis. 
 

But it is an interesting thought, but not backed by facts. 
 

We are probably not average cruisers, but we took the FCC for each of our cancellations and turned them in to future bookings (including an cruise that cancelled a week ago). 

Edited August 9, 2020 by BirdTravels

[luv2kroooz]

3 minutes ago, Travelling2Some said:

The  basic problem is being asked to make final payment without knowing what, if anything, we are buying.  What if you pay in full and then, after the fact,  encounter new rules and regulations you did not care to sign on for?  Will you then be eligible for a cash refund or must to go on a cruise you will not enjoy or lose your money?  That's the bottom line for consumers regardless of who is at fault.

I agree, but it seems to me all of the uncertainty could be eliminated by not making final payment and cancelling your reservation. You can always rebook at a later date.

[luv2kroooz]

2 minutes ago, BirdTravels said:

Hmmmm

 

The average cruiser took the FCC (50%) committing to cruise in the next year. So, while your list of reasons may be valid for you personally, they are not shared by the average cruiser. And, last report, the loads for 2021 were similar to pre-suspension loads, so the unsubstantiated assertion that the ships are less than 50% full also has no basis. 
 

But it is an interesting thought, but not backed by facts. 

Rest assured, that 50% was based on the March and April cancellations. You certainly aren't submitting to this community that it is still 50% FCC request, I hope.

 

The loads are no where near similar for 2021. If they were, you wouldn't see ships being sold for scrap. Turkey looks like a parking lot of defunct cruise ships right now. Facts matter.

Edited August 9, 2020 by luv2kroooz

[Travelling2Some]

Just now, luv2kroooz said:

I agree, but it seems to me all of the uncertainty could be eliminated by not making final payment and cancelling your reservation. You can always rebook at a later date.

Yup, that's exactly what I'm leaning more and more towards doing but we have some time left.  Hate to do it because I got a great deal on that cruise but I don't want to buy the proverbial "pig in a poke".

[tallnthensome]

5 minutes ago, luv2kroooz said:

I agree, but it seems to me all of the uncertainty could be eliminated by not making final payment and cancelling your reservation. You can always rebook at a later date.

I’m booked on the Encore for April for the four of us at $3895 for a balcony and perks. Current price to rebook is $6300 ..... so that rebook later idea .....ah.....no.

[BonnieJeanne]

My wife and I are sitting here discussing our Encore cruise booked for the family for April 2021. We are already upset enough about NCL not lowering the final payment date deadlines for 2021 cruises which is already making hope for this cruise fade along with the virus itself. We would be more comfortable sailing at half capacity when cruises do sail again. All of the lines are certain they will sail at 50% or less. When is the heck are they going to implement this rule for us to see in regard to our 2021 bookings? Why can’t they be more transparent? For cruises already booked by all of us for 2021 when are they going to fine tune these sailings? Beyond the obvious of them being completely cancelled who is in and who is out if our cruise for spring break is booked at 80% already let’s say? Those who booked first are in? We have a balcony so are they going to only fill more expensive cabins for revenue purposes which makes sense or only with open air options, no insides? Not allowing older guests or guests from high outbreak states like Florida, Texas, New York, California on board? NCL wants to keep selling cruises for next year but they don’t seem to be implementing any of their plans nor are we receiving any info on booked cruises. At this point you would think if you booked a new NCL cruise for, let’s say, August of next year online they would already have rooms X’ed out not for sale to align with 50% capacity. If you have an NCL cruise set to sail in Feb 2021 your final payment date is October ...coming quick. Where is the info on your cruise and capacity? Nowhere to be found? Thoughts? 

We are booked for 2/14/2021. Final payment 10/17/2020. We go back and forth (like the cruise news) regarding making final payment. My husband leans towards paying, and taking the 125% FCC if they cancel. I kind of think cancel before final payment and watch what happens. We have 6 cruisenext. Still time to think about it....


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[bouhunter]

10 minutes ago, BirdTravels said:

Hmmmm

 

The average cruiser took the FCC (50%) committing to cruise in the next year. So, while your list of reasons may be valid for you personally, they are not shared by the average cruiser. And, last report, the loads for 2021 were similar to pre-suspension loads, so the unsubstantiated assertion that the ships are less than 50% full also has no basis. 
 

But it is an interesting thought, but not backed by facts. 
 

We are probably not average cruisers, but we took the FCC for each of our cancellations and turned them in to future bookings (including an cruise that cancelled a week ago). 

Time will tell.

[luv2kroooz]

2 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

I’m booked on the Encore for April for the four of us at $3895 for a balcony and perks. Current price to rebook is $6300 ..... so that rebook later idea .....ah.....no.

Ok, fair. You have a decision to make. As I said above, you roll the dice of uncertainty or you forego your cruise and save your good deal for a more certain time. 

[BonnieJeanne]

I agree, but it seems to me all of the uncertainty could be eliminated by not making final payment and cancelling your reservation. You can always rebook at a later date.

That is correct, but, I got such a great deal, I don’t want to cancel if I don’t have to. $999 for balcony on the Bliss with $200 OBC. Of course, that means 125% is lower if it gets cancelled [emoji6][emoji848][emoji857][emoji41]


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[tallnthensome]

2 minutes ago, BonnieJeanne said:

That is correct, but, I got such a great deal, I don’t want to cancel if I don’t have to. $999 for balcony on the Bliss with $200 OBC. Of course, that means 125% is lower if it gets cancelled


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Won’t be worth it if the new rebook price is twice the price like mine noted just above. 25% wont cover 50%. 

[oteixeira]

16 minutes ago, luv2kroooz said:

Rest assured, that 50% was based on the March and April cancellations. You certainly aren't submitting to this community that it is still 50% FCC request, I hope.

 

The loads are no where near similar for 2021. If they were, you wouldn't see ships being sold for scrap. Turkey looks like a parking lot of defunct cruise ships right now. Facts matter.

 

Show us facts that they are not still at 50% and you have a valid point.  Otherwise, both of you are stating opinion, and at least theirs is based on a fact from March/April...

The ships parked in Turkey are NOT NCL ships, and the CEO made it clear that not only are they not looking to scrap any ships they are eagerly awaiting increased capacity that they will get from their 9 new ship orders (across the 3 fleets).

 

 

[luv2kroooz]

1 minute ago, BonnieJeanne said:

That is correct, but, I got such a great deal, I don’t want to cancel if I don’t have to. $999 for balcony on the Bliss with $200 OBC. Of course, that means 125% is lower if it gets cancelled


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That's fair. So you have to make an educated decision at this point, right? You have to either make your final payment and accept the uncertainty of the current environment or cancel and get your money back. It's one of the reasons I've stopped cruising in the pandemic. Believe me I miss it tremendously, having spent at least 50 days aboard ships annually over the past 10 or so years.

 

But we've done a week at a national park in May and are doing more weeks in September and October. We've taken calculated risk with respect to Covid exposure, but more importantly, there is no required upfront economic outlay and everything is fully refundable up until 24 hrs prior to departure date if conditions change. Good luck to you.

[luv2kroooz]

8 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

 

Show us facts that they are not still at 50% and you have a valid point.  Otherwise, both of you are stating opinion, and at least theirs is based on a fact from March/April...

The ships parked in Turkey are NOT NCL ships, and the CEO made it clear that not only are they not looking to scrap any ships they are eagerly awaiting increased capacity that they will get from their 9 new ship orders (across the 3 fleets).

 

 

I have no facts for you. My belief is people become wiser with time, kinda like a fine wine....not the kind you find on NCL bar menus, either.

 

NCLs fleet is the youngest around, but NCL is not immune to the economics of the current environment. Their Leo class will be delayed or abandoned in part. Fincantieri already hinted at that months ago. I think that is the new ship yard for NCL.

 

Disclaimer....the comments made in this post are the opinions of the poster.

Edited August 9, 2020 by luv2kroooz

[jaja]

28 minutes ago, Travelling2Some said:

Yup, that's exactly what I'm leaning more and more towards doing but we have some time left.  Hate to do it because I got a great deal on that cruise but I don't want to buy the proverbial "pig in a poke".

I totally understand.....I cancelled a cruise with almost EVERY promo possible and at a great price...but had to weigh it all against risks.  I know I made the right decision for me...but everyone is different.

[oteixeira]

13 minutes ago, luv2kroooz said:

I have no facts for you. My belief is people become wiser with time, kinda like a fine wine....not the kind you find on NCL bar menus, either.

 

NCLs fleet is the youngest around, but NCL is not immune to the economics of the current environment. Their Leo class will be delayed or abandoned in part. Fincantieri already hinted at that months ago. I think that is the new ship yard for NCL.

 

Disclaimer....the comments made in this post are the opinions of the poster.

Thanks for your opinion.  I am not saying they may not have delays in the future, but, if we have to go with what we are told today, here are the actual facts from NCL:  

"Sommer also gave cruisers needing something to look forward to exactly that when he spilled details about Norwegian’s next ship. Despite delays at the yard, he said they expect the unnamed vessel – the first in their new Leonardo line — to be delivered essentially on time in 2022."

 

from an interview here:

https://cruiseradio.net/norwegian-cruise-exec-on-return-to-sailing-new-ship-more/

Edited August 9, 2020 by oteixeira

[Trimone]

Do you think these so called fantastic deals are around for a reason? To get your money 💰 

In full mind that they possibly won’t happen! 

[chipmaster]

If and when cruising starts, I'd say 50% capacity wouldn't be the deciding factor.

 

I've flown a few times and also dined out, go to the gym.    

 

My conclusion is density is just playing with statistics,   if the chance is 1/100 is a carrier than on a plane 50% capacity gives a reasonable chance I won't catch it.   In a restaurant the probability already pretty low.   On a ship, for certain if it is 1000 instead of 2000 or 2000 instead of 4000 or 500 instead of 1000, someone will have the virus.     Then the question is simple, you sail knowing someone has the virus on the ship or not.

[oteixeira]

36 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

If and when cruising starts, I'd say 50% capacity wouldn't be the deciding factor.

 

I've flown a few times and also dined out, go to the gym.    

 

My conclusion is density is just playing with statistics,   if the chance is 1/100 is a carrier than on a plane 50% capacity gives a reasonable chance I won't catch it.   In a restaurant the probability already pretty low.   On a ship, for certain if it is 1000 instead of 2000 or 2000 instead of 4000 or 500 instead of 1000, someone will have the virus.     Then the question is simple, you sail knowing someone has the virus on the ship or not.

What you are saying is fair, but you have to use real numbers...

 

People infected in the US today:  5 million + a few.  Even if you think there are that many that haven't been tested, that would be 10 million.  There are currently 328 million people in the USA (so we aren't even including if passengers came from somewhere else).  Based on this.....

10m/328m  that is 0.03% of the population that would have it, or 3 in every 10,000 people.  

Also, I continue to think (and argue) that the ship issue is not IF someone will have it, it is how the cruise line will handle it once found, and I think the big three are working hard on that part.

[bobsfamily]

40 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

10m/328m  that is 0.03% of the population that would have it, or 3 in every 10,000 people.  

 

This!

[RD64]

Anybody who books a cruise right now needs to be cognizant of all the variables and uncertainty going forward. If you cannot deal with all of the uncertainty, cancel your cruise until some semblance of certainty exists again. If you are willing to hold your booking then realize that the 50% capacity, FCC, perks, etc are allvariables at this point, and may or may not happen in the future.

[Travelling2Some]

3 hours ago, Trimone said:

Do you think these so called fantastic deals are around for a reason? To get your money 💰 

In full mind that they possibly won’t happen! 

I hear you but I think most of us are talking about good deals that we had booked before COVID hit.  Along the same lines as what you are saying though, I'm wondering if NCL can deliver some of the great future itineraries for 2022/23 or if they are out to lure people into making deposits.  Who knows which ports will be open to cruise ships in the future?  It's easy to dream up fictitious itineraries for marketing purposes.  I have a suspicious nature but I have to say it has served me well.

[ABoatNerd]

There is no confirmed cruise line product offering.

 

No consumer should be putting a penny down to purchase an illusion of the past. If you do, please do not complain.

 

Remember, before the virus, the cruise lines were busy degrading their product, charging more - so you want to patronize companies like that?

 

Keep your money and spend it where it counts - value for 365 days a year - your family, your home, your family.

Invest in yourself and things that are really important.

 

 

[tallnthensome]

6 minutes ago, Travelling2Some said:

I hear you but I think most of us are talking about good deals that we had booked before COVID hit.  Along the same lines as what you are saying though, I'm wondering if NCL can deliver some of the great future itineraries for 2022/23 or if they are out to lure people into making deposits.  Who knows which ports will be open to cruise ships in the future?  It's easy to dream up fictitious itineraries for marketing purposes.  I have a suspicious nature but I have to say it has served me well.

You know what? I’ve looked at some of them itineraries and they are appealing. I swear you could be right. Make them so appealing that some would put deposits on them knowing they probably never plan on sailing them due to future “ schedule changes” .... very interesting observation .....

[PelicanBill]

I have a cruise booked for Feb 28 but won't make final payment October 27 unless I know when and how cruises will restart. I already canceled my November 9 cruise.  I will only risk a deposit at this point.

 

If cruises restart at 50-60% capacity it could be delightful.  Disneyworld has done this... and with masks and fairly rigorous social distancing, so far we have not seen any outbreaks traced to Disneyworld visits.  If it holds, and cruising can accomplish the same, I will be happy to go as it could be an experience you could never otherwise get.