We'll start with shorter cruises and fewer people

[molly361]

Royal to start cruises with fewer cruises and shorter people

 

YIPPEE!!!  I'm 5 foot 2  I'm good to go😇

[boatseller]

8 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

 

So Disney is a great case study.  At first, they had a lot of attention to 100% masks, proper mask wearing, and distancing. And we've had no reports of outbreaks or cases traced back to exposure there.  But the honeymoon is over.  After a few weeks, visitors are reporting a much worse situation for mask compliance and social distancing and much less enforcement by cast members - both fewer cast members out enforcing and poor enforcement where there should be.  I would not consider Disney a success story until a month from now when we see how things are then.  This is what I think a prior poster meant by "relaxed" - the effort to stay safe errodes over time - both by management and by customers.

 

And we have very good evidence about what happens when large groups convene without full social distance, ventilation and mask wearing.  Summer camps, schools, and the first few cruise ships out .... way too many outbreaks happening quickly!

Universal Orlando, SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, LegoLand, FunSpot and a bunch of other attractions have been open of over two months now and are part of the 'no outbreak' analysis.  SeaWorld and Busch Gardens got some flack for their light touch approach and it seems nothing happened.

 

'No outbreak' means the theme parks have not caused an increase over the natural community spread of the virus.  So we should expect the same thing for cruising.  Meaning, one is just as likely to acquire the virus at Magic Kingdom, on Carnival Magic or at Publix.

 

So I think cruising should be treated the same as the parks and grocery stores, and airlines for that matter.  Everyone needs to judge for themselves their fitness to visit Island of Adventure or sail on Adventure of the Seas.

[firefly333]

15 minutes ago, boatseller said:

 

 

So I think cruising should be treated the same as the parks and grocery stores, and airlines for that matter.  Everyone needs to judge for themselves their fitness to visit Island of Adventure or sail on Adventure of the Seas.

CDC has to agree to it and I'm not sure they will. 

[Pratique]

14 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

IMO, the reason why cruise lines will want to do short cruises in the beginning is to get the guests on and off before there is the risk of an outbreak on-board.  The last thing they want is to house sick guests on board, along with everything that will come with that responsibility.

I posted this same theory on CC a month ago and people scoffed at me. Such is CC.

[John&LaLa]

1 hour ago, molly361 said:

Royal to start cruises with fewer cruises and shorter people

 

YIPPEE!!!  I'm 5 foot 2  I'm good to go😇

 

Really, you look taller on a bar stool

[firefly333]

40 minutes ago, Pratique said:

I posted this same theory on CC a month ago and people scoffed at me. Such is CC.

As you said ... theory. No one really knows, and I'd say that includes rcl. You post a speculation and sure some will post their ideas and speculations. It's all just talk at this pt. 

[suzyluvs2cruise]

1 hour ago, boatseller said:

Universal Orlando, SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, LegoLand, FunSpot and a bunch of other attractions have been open of over two months now and are part of the 'no outbreak' analysis.  SeaWorld and Busch Gardens got some flack for their light touch approach and it seems nothing happened.

 

'No outbreak' means the theme parks have not caused an increase over the natural community spread of the virus.  So we should expect the same thing for cruising.  Meaning, one is just as likely to acquire the virus at Magic Kingdom, on Carnival Magic or at Publix.

 

So I think cruising should be treated the same as the parks and grocery stores, and airlines for that matter.  Everyone needs to judge for themselves their fitness to visit Island of Adventure or sail on Adventure of the Seas.

 

At all the above metioned places guests go there for the day and then either go home or to other places. Not so on a cruise ship where all guests are in the same environment for several days. 

[PhoenixCruiser]

6 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Actually yes.  The percentage of deaths is dramatically lower than it was in March and April.

 

Where was I comparing the current death rate to March and April?  

[Pratique]

6 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

As you said ... theory. No one really knows, and I'd say that includes rcl. You post a speculation and sure some will post their ideas and speculations. It's all just talk at this pt. 

Yeah but a month ago a lot of people were pretty sure I was wrong.

[boatseller]

1 minute ago, suzyluvs2cruise said:

At all the above metioned places guests go there for the day and then either go home or to other places. Not so on a cruise ship where all guests are in the same environment for several days. 

If you're interacting with a ~1% positive population, it doesn't matter if it's the same or different people.  And if it's the employee that's positive, it really, really doesn't matter.

[firefly333]

2 minutes ago, Pratique said:

Yeah but a month ago a lot of people were pretty sure I was wrong.

If you are right, then rcl is misleading people letting them book b2b week long cruises. 

 

Frankly I have no idea what to expect. I just read but dont know what to expect, but I do have 2 week long cruises booked b2b. Masks? Someone said MSC is only allowing cruiseline excursions in Europe. How would they enforce that cruising out of the USA?  Locals wouldnt be happy with loss of income. 

 

Will they start with short cruises? I'm in the who knows camp. I have no predictions. Just hoping cruiselines start back up before bankruptcy. 

[Pratique]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

If you are right, then rcl is misleading people letting them book b2b week long cruises. 

 

Frankly I have no idea what to expect. I just read but dont know what to expect, but I do have 2 week long cruises booked b2b. Masks? Someone said MSC is only allowing cruiseline excursions in Europe. How would they enforce that cruising out of the USA?  Locals wouldnt be happy with loss of income. 

 

Will they start with short cruises? I'm in the who knows camp. I have no predictions. Just hoping cruiselines start back up before bankruptcy. 

Watching Europe closely to see how it goes. Once CDC lifts the no sail order then it's off to the races.

[John&LaLa]

10 minutes ago, Pratique said:

Yeah but a month ago a lot of people were pretty sure I was wrong.

 

Pretty sure either Fain or Bayley eluded to opening with short cruises a few months ago, so your revelation would have made sense a month ago

[John&LaLa]

2 minutes ago, Pratique said:

Watching Europe closely to see how it goes. Once CDC lifts the no sail order then it's off to the races.

 

CDC may lift the ban with a lot of restrictions

[Pratique]

12 minutes ago, boatseller said:

If you're interacting with a ~1% positive population, it doesn't matter if it's the same or different people.  And if it's the employee that's positive, it really, really doesn't matter.

This makes sense to me. Others tried to argue the ships are different because there is no hospital nearby.

[Pratique]

2 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Pretty sure either Fain or Bayley eluded to opening with short cruises a few months ago, so your revelation would have made sense a month ago

I was referring to the theory that the cruises would be short to get people off the ship before an outbreak occurred as Andrew said. We don't really know why they will be short, it's just a theory. I also said there would be no B2B without a Covid retest and someone said that the quick turnaround tests were unreliable. So maybe just kick everyone off at the end and be done with them.

[John&LaLa]

2 minutes ago, Pratique said:

I was referring to the theory that the cruises would be short to get people off the ship before an outbreak occurred as Andrew said. We don't really know why they will be short, it's just a theory. I also said there would be no B2B without a Covid retest and someone said that the quick turnaround tests were unreliable. So maybe just kick everyone off at the end and be done with them.

 

Makes sense to me

 

Personally, I thought there would be a mass cancellation in August and rebook all the Oasis ships for short cruises. 

 

And then Covid exploded in Florida this summer

Edited August 12, 2020 by John&LaLa

[firefly333]

1 minute ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Pretty sure either Fain or Bayley eluded to opening with short cruises a few months ago, so your revelation would have made sense a month ago

Carnival alluded to the shorter cruises, then said sept would open with 3 ports and 8 ships. Contradicting the opening with shorter cruises idea.

 

I'm having a hard time believing they have any plan in place to open lol. And this is rcl and ccl. Seems like the plans are ideas on the fly, and will change with whatever cdc comes out with. 

 

I'm still firmly in the wait and see after having both my b2b changed ships, one with 0 notification. I dont think rcl knows or has a plan is my theory. Sitting on my hands waiting for the next shoe to drop.

[John&LaLa]

2 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Carnival alluded to the shorter cruises, then said sept would open with 3 ports and 8 ships. Contradicting the opening with shorter cruises idea.

 

I'm having a hard time believing they have any plan in place to open lol. And this is rcl and ccl. Seems like the plans are ideas on the fly, and will change with whatever cdc comes out with. 

 

I'm still firmly in the wait and see after having both my b2b changed ships, one with 0 notification. I dont think rcl knows or has a plan is my theory. Sitting on my hands waiting for the next shoe to drop.

 

I cancelled one November Oasis criuse then shifted the other this week. 2020 as scheduled, is done. Well, maybe try and salvage Christmas and NYE.

[Pratique]

4 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Makes sense to me

 

Personally, I thought there would be a mass cancellation in August and rebook all the Oasis ships for short cruises. 

 

And then Covid exploded in Florida this summer

Oasis class makes sense for short runs to CocoCay or Labadee, once things get going again.

[John&LaLa]

2 minutes ago, Pratique said:

Oasis class makes sense for short runs to CocoCay or Labadee, once things get going again.

 

Miami-Dade had 4,000 new cases reported today. Half the state total

[boatseller]

9 minutes ago, Pratique said:

This makes sense to me. Others tried to argue the ships are different because there is no hospital nearby.

Yeah, that's almost a canard.  The incubation to onset to hospitalization period for C19 is longer than most cruises so one would have to be symptomatic at embarkation to even be in the window period for potential hospital level care.

 

I don't hear about med bays being over run with Influenza patients and you can board with symptomatic Influenza.

[Iamcruzin]

I don't think anyone is denying that flights are a source of covid. However  the real concern is being stuck at sea and having no place to dock. There would be less risk on a 4 day cruise to the private islands than a 7 day cruise to several islands. My son is leaving for St Thomas tomorrow.  Yesterday NY State just added them to the list of places you have to quarantine 14 days upon return.  He's going none the less. This was his third attempt to move his flight and airbnb credits. They booked a condo on the beach and he and his partner will just go to the liquor store and cook or take out food. He's been there more than enough times via a cruise ship so there is nothing left to see.  His boss is trying to see if he can be paid during quarantine. He still lives at home so even losing the pay won't be a total hardship. With all of these restrictions I don't know how cruising in the US is ever going to start up.  

[Pratique]

Just now, John&LaLa said:

 

Miami-Dade had 4,000 new cases reported today. Half the state total

It's hard to get our arms around this especially when contact tracing is nearly impossible and controlling people is impossible. Maybe they should bring Oasis to New Jersey after all (just kidding).

 

All of the European cruises are new itineraries so it's possible RCI will do the same at the start. Cancel everything existing and create some new ones that never existed before.

[John&LaLa]

2 minutes ago, boatseller said:

Yeah, that's almost a canard.  The incubation to onset to hospitalization period for C19 is longer than most cruises so one would have to be symptomatic at embarkation to even be in the window period for potential hospital level care.

 

I don't hear about med bays being over run with Influenza patients and you can board with symptomatic Influenza.

 

They might be able to shut diwn Oasis deck 3 forward and make a hospital in the conference center. Use the cabins down there for additional medical staff and quarantine rooms